Lukas Rosol to win Wimbledon @1000

got matched @50s. His frying pan serve no1 will stop!! come on rosol!

good luck...should still be 1000s

still has to beat:
kohlshreiber
baker/paire
probably tsonga/fish
probably murray/potro/ferrer/cilic
probably Djoko/fed

So 36

1.32 Kohli
1.30 Baker
2.00 Tsonga
2.50 Murray
4.00 Fed/Djoko

should be still at least 200

I just had a look at his results this year.

http://matchstat.com/Player/Lukas%20Rosol

How is he supposed to win Wimbledon?

Have laid at 34, but am not greening out at 46. Will see where the odds are before his next match. Might have to back him match by match and hope that Tsonga/Murray etc don't all crash out.

kohl 2.3
baker 2.4
tsonga 3.5
murray 4
djok/fed 5



i mean i'm being generous to his pricing, no?

= 386.4

"How is he supposed to win Wimbledon?"

Carrying on playing like he just did would be a pretty good place to start.

Irrespective of anything he has done before, you can't decry what he has done tonight.  There was no element of fluke there.  How many times did you hear "Where did that come from?" in the commentary?  Answer - exactly the same place as all the other amazing shots.

Jun 28, 2012 -- 10:53PM, jsimpson67. wrote:

kohl 2.3 baker 2.4tsonga 3.5murray 4djok/fed 5i mean i'm being generous to his pricing, no? = 386.4

i wouldn't argue with any, other than Baker who i can't really judge so will take your word with that

well markets love baker too, but maybe im wrong with 2.4, not sure

but paire is 2.5 to beat him, who is playing very well himself

If he plays like that, he'll win.

anyone who thinks Rosol will play even half as good as that ever again is crazy

Why.  Was he possessed tonight or something?

he was yes

He wasn't playing THAT well for the 1st 4 sets

1 set - mediocre and choked a bit
2nd set - good
3rd set - very good
4th set - not bad

5th set - phenomenal

OK!  Well, if anyone wants to lay me 350-1 I'll bite!

If Rosol wins Wimbledon I will cut off my penis and sell it on ebay

rosol was fantastic, but nadal was there for the taking. his game is just so very, very badly suited for the grass courts.
his ridiculous spin doesnt give him any advantage as it is neutralised by the surface. those shots sit nicely up in the hitting zone. if he faces an opponent who can "make" shots from the baseline and can serve big, he is in trouble (some guys: berdych, anderson, querrey, raonic, gulbis, paire, tsonga,...). im sure any of those players would have nadal for the taking yesterday - but most likely they would have choked before the finnish line. rosol didnt choke, which was a big surprise to me.

Been tonnes of players in tournaments who upset a favourite - how many go on to win the tournaments?

Not many I would say

im with you stu he could well be drained after that match,on the mental side he has probably in his own mind played his final.it would not surprise me if he loses in the next round,but only time will tell.

Consistent flat hard and deep is kryptonite to Wafa. That level of consistency would be brutal against anyone. Definitely the biggest shock I've ever seen. A good question to ask would be, who wouldn't Rosol have beaten yesterday?

A better question to ask is 'who wouldnt have rosol beaten in that 5th set'? No-one, it was unplayable.

But against any other top player he'd have lost in 3 or 4 sets. Average in the 1st set, average in the 2nd, very good in 3rd, average in 4th. So I think a lot of players would have beaten Rosol yesterday.

Saw this thread and was about to congratulate whoever posted for an amazing tip

People missing the point here big time...32 was the lay of the century

Agree.

asdasf yes it was a good lay but i think i would prefer to be the layer of heather watson in the outrights in the ladies market at 2.0 .

you can't be serious!

lol@50 quid matched on Heather to win Wimbly@2...not only that. Heather Watson is the player matched to the lowest price I could see to win...unbelievable!

i know i could not believe it someone really should give up gambling i think.

not a big deal beating Nadull on grass utilizing a big serve, forthcoming opponents will have bigger weapons, Rosol not like McEnroe coming from nowhere into the semis.

I've thrown a few quid on him @46 - I've never seen anyone hit the ball so flat and hard with so much venom and so accurately. I know he probably won't repeat it but he can beat anyone if he plays the way he did against Rafa.

i thought you were shrewd h_l, stick to the football

highlander has the balls to admit it.

i wish the same mugs on the o/r market would move to his market vs Kohly

aaronh, it's a tiny bet in the hope that this guy and grass courts = perfect combination.
Shocks do happen at Wimbledon - a sudden breakthrough is possible. Maybe he will play out of his skin for one tournament and go back to being carp again.

I heard Becker was 100/1 when he won it the first time
What were the odds on Michael Stich and Richard Krajicek?

Boris Becker was like 17 and won Queens previous to Wimbledon

you're better off just staking him each time to win and you're more likely to get something in  the 300-400 range

he's 2.5 to win on Saturday. is he gonna be like 20's to be Tsonga, Murray and Fed

Don't know the Becker odds for sure, but he was a top30 player and entered Wimbledon having just won Queen's Club for the loss of just one set.

Doubt his odds were at 100/1

Rosol is just a journeyman mug who had the 5th set of his life

but it's a terrible terrible price

probable draw

he's 2.6 to beat kohlschreiber
2.4 vs baker next round
3.3 vs tsonga
3.8 vs murray
5 vs fed/djok

realistic price = 390ish

even with his easiest draw (which wont happen)

2.6
1.8
1.6
2.8
3

= 63

the fact that this guy is 26 and lost his first round Wimbledon qualifier in every previous year to this, surely shows that this is just a bit of a fluke rather than the breakthrough of a new messiah?

Having said that if he plays like he did in the 5th set last night, he will be untouchable.

good price to lay if u backed him @1000, because the odds will be rising fast

Becker was the first unseeded player to win Wimbledon - he would have been a big price to win it.

they had less seeds in those days also

Rosol might never play that well again, but it could be he is hitting the form of his life. I heard he hated grass previously and use to avoid even practising on it until this year. This year he decided to practise hard on grass... and we can see the benefits.

Bookies make me laugh - outrights Rosol short as 22/1, Kohlschreiber 150/1, match odds Kohl 4/7, Rosol 6/4 utter lunacy anyone backing him at 22s, HUGE over-reaction.

To be able to hit it with that combination of hard/flat/exact is possibly something he'll never repeat.
But if he can, all bets are off because there's nobody on the tour that could have lived with him last night.

becker was about 16/1. only mcenroe, lendl, connors and maybe 1 or 2 others would have been shorter than him. he was a top 20 player

lets get one thing clear

a lot of other players on tour wouldn't have been in that 5th set because he wasn't THAT good in the first 4 sets. they'd have beaten him in 3/4 sets

30s-50s is ridiculous in the outright but oddly enough i think 2.5+ is too big vs kohly

mafeking, Becker was unseeded = fact

That's a bit slippery. Ok how about judging it purely on the 5th set.

Who else on the tour could have lived with him in that fifth set.
Nobody, certainly not Djoko.

Everyone's assuming it was a freak event and that may well be right.
That isn't the point.

I certainly wouldnt want to call the next match, if he beats Kohlschreiber in even 4 sets playing the way he did against Nadal, then he could take it to the bigger players come the quarters/semis.

CherylCole is correct, in that 5th set he was unstoppable and if he plays the same way as that, he will beat anyone. It's a very big if though.

yep he was unseeded but only just. he wasn't a surprise winner by any means

he COULD actually emulate what soderling did at RG, beat nadal and go to the finals and get schooled by djoker/fed, but i highly doubt it because back then, soderling's only problem was his mental abilities (remember his nickname chokerling) and beating nadal kind of unlocked that mental block. I cannot see rosol being so consistent in his hitting for the next 2 or 3 matches. He is ranked 100 at age 26 for a reason.

mafeking, stop fishing, you know very well that it was one of the biggest shocks in the history of tennis. Becker was a boy of 17 years old, the youngest ever winner, no one gave him a chance even though he won a very weak Queens.

call it what you like. he was not a big priced winner.

he got lucky in that jarryd (i think) did his dirty work for him by taking our mcenroe who presumably would have been a very short priced favourite after demolishing connors the previous year.

the likes of stich, krajicek and goran far bigger surprise winners

Becker had reached qf at AO (then at grass) six months earlier.

Becker was a surprise winner, but no big upset

mafeking, you don't know what odds he was

rosol in the press conference after the match: "im sorry for rafa, but today i was somebody else." 
doesnt seem confident to reproduce this kind of tennis imo.

can win but probably will not

who knows.

most made valid points.

if he goes down i hope he goes down in a blaze of glory!!!