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Riki "The Mug" Thread....
Riki "The Mug" Thread....
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Replies: 1,115
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rumours and outright market tell that Aza has withdrawn immediately after yesterday's win
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her match not even scheduled, so it looks to be true, but if she plays I'd stay away, got burnt by her last year in Stuttgart tanking
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thanks bb66... I'm voidind that bet already....
and I'm even reducing the stake on Kvitova at 3/10 units... |
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I'm keeping the bets as they are for an hour.. reducing both at 3/10 instead of 10/10...
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looks like Aza withdrawn... bet is obviously gonna be voided if she did...
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let's sum up the starting bets for today:
Kvitova over Cirstea - Internazionali BNL Roma, Clay, 3° Round 10/10 Djokovic over Monaco - Internazionali BNL Roma, Clay, 3° Round 10/10 |
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azarenka @ 1/1000 surely withdrawn
http://beta.betfair.com/tennis/market?id=1.105724259 |
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1000/1*
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yeah... it looks like she withdrew...
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she did.... I'm added a new line to the graph in my excel file....this experiment is amazing me sooooooo much!!!!
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ricky,i try to find why suddenly down to 4/10 and 5/10 and not 10/10?
have i missed something? |
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not betting the same (max) stake on every match is a key to success!
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bb66 • May 17, 2012 11:02 AM BST
not betting the same (max) stake on every match is a key to success! 10/10 was only 10% for ricky if your post was to me |
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and 10% is his selfimposed max stake per bet, what he does is (hopefully) sensibly differentiating his stakes
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I went down to 3 4 5 units per bet cause I needed to find out some winner in wta... at the end of the morning I was 10/10 on Kvitova and 10/10 on Djoko...
bb66 tbh I bet flat stake generally and I already checked that my ROI would have been way lower than the running one if I would stake according to odds/risks.... money management ( never overexpose your bank on a single event ) if way more important than staking plan... and flat staking is one of the key-ingredients of the running success of my experiment... |
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stakes should vary not according to odds only, but to odds and value, for my bets I may use higher stakes on a considered to be solid 1.15 shot than on a maybe wobbely 1.08
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sincerly I only bet on things that I do believe will become winners... without caring about value ( naive concept imo ) at all and I care only a little about the price the market gives me...
my second betting rule is: a winning bet is a well paid one... |
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S. Williams over Medina Gar. - Internaz. BNL Roma, Clay, 3° Round
10/10 at 1,10 |
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Wasn't gonna bet much today but when Joker went 1 set down the 1.6 was just too good to resist.
Novak Djokovic * 1.65 236.77 Back 154.67 Novak Djokovic * 1.17 150.00 Lay -26.00 *Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 154.67 Lay subtotal: -26.00 Market subtotal: 128.67 Commission @ 4.6%: 5.92 Net Market Total: 122.75 Well done everyone let's keep it going. What do you fancy ricky? del potro and warwrinks? |
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can't believe someone laid you 1.65 for Djoko... OMG....
well... Wawrinka is a question mark but I think he'll win.. Seppi will have home support but that won't probably be enough.... Del Potro will maybe cruise through it but Jo will play as good as possible... and he can make you really angry if he hits everything in the court and stand well in rallies.... it's probably better not to be greedy and let those matches alone.. the first money we win are the one we don't lose...  |
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Maybe a small bet on Delboy or let them both go in play and see how it goes I guess.
No point wasting todays profit. |
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Wawrinka over Seppi - Internazionali BNL Roma, Clay, 3° Round
10/10 at 1,33 |
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LOL at Wawrinka... tomorrow are u gonna trash Roger Andreas?
3/1 today new bank 249,75% |
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Federer over Ferrero - Internazionali BNL Roma, Clay, 3° Round
10/10 at 1,07 |
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10/10 How much on though mate? thousands? hundreds?
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10/10 How much on though mate? thousands? hundreds?
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I'm on £569 to win £29.71
I lost on Wawrinka but still £70 up for the day which ain't bad considering. |
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I don't like talking about money SIR_Bond... sorry mate... talking percentages is much easier for everybody and gives me a better of where I'm going with this betting stuff....
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i was a little worried out there risking £569 to win £29 but Fed is back in control thank god.
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i was a little worried out there risking £569 to win £29 but Fed is back in control thank god.
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if u can restake the same amount of money on a row of AT LEAST 10 bets you're not overstaking... otherwise you have to be worried about it... I think you were overstaking here mate... but well done on your winnings...
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Na Li over Cibulkova - Internazionali BNL Roma, Clay, 1/4 Final
10/10 at 1,35 Federer won new bank 251,50% I'm not too angry cause of Wawa loss: ATP ROI is getting human now ( a bit higher than 9% ) the problem is still WTA where I hit too many mistakes... Good Luck everybody |
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Morning
I am almost finished with WTA,i would say less than 5% are WTA games and my profit increase a lot.I am more free and i spend the time for other things. |
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I will try to give WTA a turnaround cause like GVL says: " many favourites win here" maybe we only need to have a different selection strategy... let' see if this my "new" one ( old one improved a bit ) will work...
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S. Williams over Pennetta - Internazionali BNL Roma, Clay, 1/4 Final
10/10 at 1,18 |
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Federer over Seppi - Internazionali BNL Roma, Clay, 1/4 Final
10/10 at 1,07 |
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I just realised my ROI is 151,50%
each euro of the starting is today € 2,51!!! WOW!!! But I need to find two different now for those 2 different indexes... |
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I'm not sure about today all the fav's are really short odds but i can't bring myself to lay anyone.
No doubt i will end up backing at short odds. Might wait till in play to try and get better odds. |
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wait I made a mistake there: my ROI is 1,51 cause ROI is an index LOL
 Yes Sir... maybe Li, Nole and Ferrer will give u better chances in play... but I don't like the "wait and see" stuff cause they can be half their running odds in 5 mins... |
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Bet void: Li Na can't trust her completely... I have a little doubt about this one... jus like Nole vs Tipsi...
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