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How to make money backing low odds favs

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Replies: 2,848
By:
bb66
When: 08 Jan 12 22:38
no, that's pre match and/or in play bets including trading, therefor I can't give single odds on every match, and as said in an earlier post yesterday I greened out on Kuzzy after set 1.
By:
bb66
When: 09 Jan 12 11:13
Monday 7 matches with 410€ profit, makes 34:0 with 2381 profit over all.

Markt Startzeit Letztes Abrechnungsdatum Gewinn/Verlust (€)

Tennis / Gajdosova v Morita : Wettquoten 09-Jan-12 09:00  09-Jan-12 12:02  61,07
Tennis / Venus v Giraldo : Wettquoten 09-Jan-12 07:00  09-Jan-12 08:20  10,82
Tennis / Barty v Mattek Sands : Wettquoten 09-Jan-12 03:30  09-Jan-12 06:47  88,73
Tennis / Nieminen v Duckworth : Wettquoten 09-Jan-12 03:30  09-Jan-12 06:41  119,48
Tennis / Azarenka v Voegele : Wettquoten 09-Jan-12 03:00  09-Jan-12 04:53  68,17
Tennis / Hercog - Bartoli : Wettquoten 09-Jan-12 02:30  09-Jan-12 04:21  18,21
Tennis / Makarova - Li : Wettquoten 09-Jan-12 01:00  09-Jan-12 02:17  43,33
By:
bighuf
When: 09 Jan 12 21:10
Do you decide to trade out when you realize that things dont go your way? Do you set yourself  limits when the odds reach a certain point?

For example: You backed Federer against Seppi at 1.05 odds climb to 1.15. Do you let the bet run or decide to trade out with a small loss?
By:
jin_kazz
When: 09 Jan 12 21:56
yeah pre-slam

almost forgot about it. thanks dude
By:
bb66
When: 09 Jan 12 23:54
@ bighuf

In most cases I top up to improve my average odds, when my fav loses the 1st or 2nd set, but in this case often do it with continuous trading (game by game or even pt by pt). In the 3rd set if my fav goes into the lead I will trade out at least partially, so that if the fav get broken again and loses in the end, my loss (if any) should be less than my initial stake, butr the profit to gain would be higher. On the Fed vs Seppi match I started with 2000 @1.05, backed another 2000 between 1.08 and 1.17 and additional 2000 up to 1.4. When the match finished I had 1500 or 2000 red on Seppi, but a big green on Fed. Esp the big guns are able to turn the match around even from facing double MPs! This clearly goes wrong if the fav loses in 2 sets, and that is when very rarely big losses occur. But my initial stake is always max 50% of the amount I'm willing to risk on the match.

Very rarely (on average 2 or 3 times in a complete season), I'll switch, depending on how I read the match, either redding out equally or try to go at least 0 on the opponent of my initial fav, if I still get decent odds.
By:
jin_kazz
When: 10 Jan 12 10:22
nice strategy but require a lot of money and german discipline and nerves :)
By:
bb66
When: 10 Jan 12 10:24
I'm not German, but my bank is rather big, yet I'm still satisfied even with small profits.
By:
bb66
When: 10 Jan 12 10:26
tonight I had only 1 bet due to BF outtage:

Tennis / Dulgheru - Kvitova : Wettquoten 10-Jan-12 02:15  10-Jan-12 10:34  44,81€
By:
bb66
When: 11 Jan 12 03:37
first loss of the year on Isner, wins on DelPotro and Gasquet, Ferrer to follow. Fell asleep and didn't trade the first 2 matches which may has avoided a bigger loss. P/L will be posted when today's action has finished.
By:
jin_kazz
When: 11 Jan 12 10:03
so it's 35:1 now?

big loss?
By:
bb66
When: 11 Jan 12 13:05
if you omit the 2 matches where I only had an arb, it is now 38:1 over all with 2071€ profit.

Markt Startzeit Letztes Abrechnungsdatum Gewinn/Verlust (€)

Tennis / Ferrer - Rosol : Wettquoten 11-Jan-12 03:30  11-Jan-12 07:43  80,65
Tennis / Safarova - Li : Wettquoten 11-Jan-12 03:30  11-Jan-12 06:23  1,19 (arb only)
Tennis / Giraldo - Almagro : Wettquoten 11-Jan-12 02:15  11-Jan-12 06:01  4,19 (arb only)
Tennis / Fognini - Gasquet : Wettquoten 11-Jan-12 02:15  11-Jan-12 04:17  14,61
Tennis / Del Potro - Kubot : Wettquoten 11-Jan-12 02:00  11-Jan-12 03:49  99,36
Tennis / Reynolds - Isner : Wettquoten 11-Jan-12 01:00  11-Jan-12 03:06  -555,00
By:
fayaz1
When: 11 Jan 12 13:29
Good work bb66 but that is a heavy loss for low profit?
By:
dedon
When: 11 Jan 12 13:33
Its just waiting when you lose al youre monezzz
By:
jin_kazz
When: 11 Jan 12 14:47
we're waiting when you learn english language dedon.

good luck bb66
By:
dedon
When: 11 Jan 12 14:54
Haters gonna Hate
By:
jin_kazz
When: 11 Jan 12 15:00
lovers gonna love
killers gonna kill
people gonna live
..........
..........
..........
djokovic gonna play
petkovic gonna dance
the special one won't post here anymore

PS: sorry for flooding your topic with useless posts :)
By:
bb66
When: 11 Jan 12 15:01
it's a mediocre loss, no big harm done, I can't expect to retain the 100% record, 95% should be enough to break even.
By:
fayaz1
When: 11 Jan 12 15:12
Good Luck mate anywayCool
By:
dedon
When: 11 Jan 12 15:18
Probably gonna be burned on this reaction as well. I bet only on the favourites during a 500,masters or grand slam. Because the 250 toerneys they seem uninterested. Thats just my 2 cents.
By:
bb66
When: 12 Jan 12 22:37
bad day at the office yesterday: get it wrong almost every time with such injuries like Kerber, redded out on her, and a loss on Delboy.

Markt Startzeit Letztes Abrechnungsdatum Gewinn/Verlust (€)

Tennis / Del Potro - Baghdatis : Wettquoten 12-Jan-12 09:30  12-Jan-12 11:45  -712,39
Tennis / Wickmayer - Halep : Wettquoten 12-Jan-12 03:15  12-Jan-12 06:22  231,90
Tennis / Cirstea - Kerber : Wettquoten 12-Jan-12 01:00  12-Jan-12 03:08  -400,99
By:
elgreco
When: 12 Jan 12 23:23
have just got back involved again in the last few days. Was v.successful on this 3years ago at small stakes then tried to increase stakes but lacked the discipline to work with bigger sums and ended up losing abt 2/3 of what I had spent months making. Gave myself £50 two days ago, all small bets and all trading in&out of tennis for 3-10% at a time and have already increased bank by 50%. want to raise stakes again but find it so hard to do it without gettn greedy & taking chances.
By:
bb66
When: 13 Jan 12 12:21
Baggy losing to Bennie and Kerber even bagelled by Barthel - either I'm unlucky or too sily for this? Even Ferrer almost made a mess vs Falla being broken numerous times and then has no BP to face vs VerdascoCry.

Had only one bet this night:

Tennis / Ferrer - Falla : Wettquoten 12-Jan-12 23:00  13-Jan-12 01:18  171,28€
By:
abolo
When: 13 Jan 12 12:24
Why do you complain about matches you are saying you didn't bet on ?
By:
bb66
When: 13 Jan 12 13:03
I complained because I lost on Baggy beating Delboy and Kerber winning when she seemed out of it vs Cirstea which caused me a loss reducing my exposure. Feared of losing on Ferrer too in a continuous run of losers.
By:
jin_kazz
When: 13 Jan 12 13:46
do you bet on NBA?
By:
bb66
When: 13 Jan 12 13:47
no
By:
jin_kazz
When: 13 Jan 12 13:50
nba is good for your strategy.
By:
jin_kazz
When: 13 Jan 12 13:51
but matches going on in the deep night :((

I want to sleep Sad
By:
bb66
When: 13 Jan 12 14:01
I'm not interested in basketball, therefor I don't know enough to bet on it. Betting for me is a combination of watching the sports I like and making some money with this hobby.
By:
abolo
When: 13 Jan 12 18:29

Jan 13, 2012 -- 1:03PM, bb66 wrote:


I complained because I lost on Baggy beating Delboy and Kerber winning when she seemed out of it vs Cirstea which caused me a loss reducing my exposure. Feared of losing on Ferrer too in a continuous run of losers.


ok i understand

By:
HKK11
When: 13 Jan 12 20:51
Theres obviously no one correct way to make money, but considering that 95% of bettors fail in the long run (I assume), there are definitely MANY incorrect ways to make money. I dont doubt that youve been successful in the past, but through my experience, I know that PERSONAL JUDGEMENT, PERSONAL OBSERVATION, and BETTING ON EMOTION will not get you very far in the betting game. If you want to win on a consistent basis you need to have real data to back up all your bets. I dont know what your strategy is bb66, but to those people looking for a solution, let me tell you that patterns and trends DO exist (an obvious example is certain players doing better on different court surfaces, but that data is already known to the public). Im not trying to spam, but check out this tennis betting system that I recently joined: http://superduper-tennis.blogspot.com/
you need to become a member to sell the rest of the stats such as who will win the first set, 2nd set, 3rd set, tie break, etc..
By:
HKK11
When: 13 Jan 12 20:51
Theres obviously no one correct way to make money, but considering that 95% of bettors fail in the long run (I assume), there are definitely MANY incorrect ways to make money. I dont doubt that youve been successful in the past, but through my experience, I know that PERSONAL JUDGEMENT, PERSONAL OBSERVATION, and BETTING ON EMOTION will not get you very far in the betting game. If you want to win on a consistent basis you need to have real data to back up all your bets. I dont know what your strategy is bb66, but to those people looking for a solution, let me tell you that patterns and trends DO exist (an obvious example is certain players doing better on different court surfaces, but that data is already known to the public). Im not trying to spam, but check out this tennis betting system that I recently joined: http://superduper-tennis.blogspot.com/
you need to become a member to sell the rest of the stats such as who will win the first set, 2nd set, 3rd set, tie break, etc..
By:
elgreco
When: 13 Jan 12 22:41
have had a look and the system seems to have value. I would generally look into the background info on both players/head to heads/recent results,injuries etc/ win/loss record on the surface etc all but it does take a bit of digging around. Will get an idea of who i fancy and have a look at prices before deciding where the value is. Often i wont back the one i expect to win and will instead just be looking for movement in the market to trade in&out. Currently bank is 165% of what it was when i started back on tuesday after a few years out. All small money but will be looking at approx 20-40 bets per singles match and have locked out green in every single match in the last 6 days. I just seem to get greedy/slip up when i started to increase stakes in the past. How much is this site to register with & how have you found it hkk?
By:
bb66
When: 14 Jan 12 14:19
only some neglectable bets for peanuts last night:

Markt Startzeit Letztes Abrechnungsdatum Gewinn/Verlust (€)

Tennis / Wickmayer v Barthel : Wettquoten 14-Jan-12 07:00  14-Jan-12 08:40  1,84
Tennis / Ferrer v O Rochus : Wettquoten 14-Jan-12 03:00  14-Jan-12 06:27  2,71
Tennis / Molchanov - Serra : Wettquoten 14-Jan-12 02:30  14-Jan-12 03:38  2,57
By:
Vaprus Parnu
When: 14 Jan 12 20:46
You will never make money backing low odds faves. Short term perhaps, long term - no chance. How can you possibly sustain a system where your losers are over £500 on average and your winners are under £100 on average? It's ludicrous.

The amount of consistent wins you need is ridiculous and only a matter of time before you hit a few bad losses in a short space of time that will ruin you.

This is a mug's strategy and if anything, you'd probably make more money with FAR, FAR less risk by doing the exact opposite and laying. There is no value at all in what you are doing and without value, you are doomed.
By:
bb66
When: 14 Jan 12 20:51
I probably need a strike rate of 90%, but mine is higher, as you can see I'm in profit.
By:
dlarssonf
When: 14 Jan 12 21:31
of course you can make money backing low odds, provided they are value.  Value can come in any odd ranges.  Its more the staking plan that will kill him
By:
Vaprus Parnu
When: 14 Jan 12 23:04
I agree Larsson but have you looked at his bets? Not much value in many of them, in my opinion.
By:
bb66
When: 14 Jan 12 23:30
how can you judge the value when you don't know the odds I've taken? Many of the markets I bet on where in an all green position, eg Wickmayer yesterday, though this is not an example for backing low odds, I went in in play after set 1 laying Bathel.
By:
swebih
When: 14 Jan 12 23:39
bb66
14 Jan 12 23:30
Joined:
19 Jul 05
| Topic/replies: 4,507 | Blogger: bb66's blog
how can you judge the value when you don't know the odds I've taken? Many of the markets I bet on where in an all green position, eg Wickmayer yesterday, though this is not an example for backing low odds, I went in in play after set 1 laying Bathel.


I thought you was low odds backer Confused 


"How to make money backing low odds favs"
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