Specials
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15 Jan 26
08:09
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Date Joined:
16 Jun 02
If you've ever been to the politics forum you'll know that talking about actual betting would get laughed out of town so shall we have a fred here?
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Jenrick gone, was matched as low as 2 for next leader
Just to clarify let's just talk about odds and bets here, save the slapstick for the other section
Cider I suspect can distinguish between bets and dogma, even his own :)
Yes, I'm sure he can be analytical, and can certainly add to your analysts pool of knowledge 
Personally Politics comes down about same ranking as betting on water polo for me in terms of knowledge or real interest - I watch the news about every two weeks (literally) and that's often by accident. Can't stand it all really, though I do have my own political beliefs for some things. I even leave the room if the missus puts something like Question Time on, and starts saying 'this is interesting'...
But, each to their own, if you follow it I guess it's a form of specials betting in logic.
Personally Politics comes down about same ranking as betting on water polo for me in terms of knowledge or real interest - I watch the news about every two weeks (literally) and that's often by accident. Can't stand it all really, though I do have my own political beliefs for some things. I even leave the room if the missus puts something like Question Time on, and starts saying 'this is interesting'...
But, each to their own, if you follow it I guess it's a form of specials betting in logic.
It's closer to specials than anything else. Popularity and motivation
Most of us 'Specialists' started in the bookies, losing.
Then we discovered bf, but continued losing
Then we discovered Specials, and started winning.
It's a very short and obvious step from betting on how the public will vote on SCD to betting on how they'll vote in elections, one I took years ago. Just as much volatility as Specials, but with far more liquidity. It's fantastic, do it!
Then we discovered bf, but continued losing
Then we discovered Specials, and started winning.
It's a very short and obvious step from betting on how the public will vote on SCD to betting on how they'll vote in elections, one I took years ago. Just as much volatility as Specials, but with far more liquidity. It's fantastic, do it!
It's closer to specials than anything else. Popularity and motivation
Very true, though I find the variables too wide, general and basically boring to follow personally - are there any shortcuts?
Very true, though I find the variables too wide, general and basically boring to follow personally - are there any shortcuts?
"Prime Minister after Keir Starmer" - Labour selection, as they likely won't let Starmer fight the next election. Anybody think Angela Rayner has a chance? 3rd in the betting, I'd be surprised as she's badly tainted and they've got others to chose from.
Rayner is so low because of punters not believing the membership will accept streeting. But I think that's wrong tbh and it'll be streeting whatever
Use labour leader market though? Removes the slight risk of starmer hanging on.
Use labour leader market though? Removes the slight risk of starmer hanging on.
Great idea! Had some of my biggest wins in Politics. Don't get involved as much as I probably should. Looking forward to hearing some shrewd tipping
The markets are still assuming the rank and file won't care about her dishonesty.
We used to have some fantastic Political threads, the best one ever being 'US Election 2016' (it's on page 4, with hilary matched for chunks at 1.09), and the Brexit 'EU Jimmy' one, (on page 12, remain matched for chunks at 1.06). Indeed, after never having taken any interest in politics, (they're all effers!), that '2016' thread kinda changed my life! A somewhat casual first post of mine declaring that 'The Don will romp it', lead to me thinking maybe I really should learn something about it before spewing such bombast; so, for 10 years now, I've followed US Politics closer than anyone I know, even to the extent of going to The Don's Inauguration last year, and Charlie Kirk's funeral service.
I know nothing about UK politics; (why watch the sideshow, when The Greatest Show On Earth is playing out in front of us from America? It's live, it's unscripted and it's free!), but here's some random thoughts re. betting on the US stuff
These markets are long term, with very little happening on a day-to-day basis, meaning most runners in most markets have something of a 'trading range' which, while not inviolable, is fairly predictable. For example, JD's POTUS price has been fluctating between 3.5-ish and 4.1-ish, for months, making it easy to trade to free greens.
Check out US sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, at least for a comparison of how different exchanges are pricing the same thing. Ideally though, get yourself accounts with them, as HUGE arbs are available all the time.
Likewise, keep an eye out for what other UK sites are offering; best exanple being, back in maybe 2022, smarkets had a 'Will The Don be President before 2025?' market. There was an election to be held in 2024, for which he was, from memory, about 2.7 on here but, crucially, even if he won the election, he wouldn't have been inaugurated as President until January 2025. Nevertheless, he traded at around 6.0-7.0 on smarkets, for months, with dearly departed Froggitt raiding his pension fund to lay every bit of free money that appeared with, presumably, backers confusing 'winning the election' with 'becoming President'
With so many markets, tradeable anomalies between them appear. The dems are about 1.3 to win The House in November. Since, (literally!), The Don's very Inauguration Day a year ago, they have been calling for his impeachment over numerous issues and, with them having impeached him twice last time, it's 1.01 they'll do it again, probably numerous times, over things like the Venezuelan narco boats. So, if dems are 1.3 to take The House, the impeachment price should be 1.31 or 1.32, but maybe throw in a bit in case The Don's not still POTUS for whatever reason, call it 1.35, maybe even 1.4. Yet the impeachment price is 1.83. Ok, not much money matched there yet, there will be, but this is the type of anomaly to look for
Political markets are, compared to Specials, incredibly slow moving; anyone reading the two threads I mentioned earlier will see just how slow, particularly for the in-running markets, with all the volatility of Specials, but for serious money. I came up with the 'Disbelief Theory' which explains it; none of us really care about who wins SCD or XF, we're happy to change jackpot win potential to max red in the blink of an eye, (and back again if necessary!), purely on how events are unfolding, with no real personal or emotional involvement or attachment. Not so easy for a lifelong commie to believe that The Don not only could, ever, conceivably actually win, but that he's right on the point of doing so. Thankfully, Political markets seem to be dominated by that sort, keeping the market wrong for ages, disbelief misleading them, as accepting reality would strike at their soul, make them question their innermost beliefs
Listen to the 'No Agenda' podcast; they 'deconstruct the media' giving great insight in to what's really happening, what it all means. Twice weekly, same two fellas every time for 18 years, (one of whom, Adam Curry, 'The Podfather', is generally credited with having invented podcasting), they're invariably ahead of the curve
Don't believe you're getting anything even approaching the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, from any mainstream legacy media; they're all FINNISH, with The Don, over the last 10 years, having exposed them for the FAKE NEWS that they are.
There are many 2026 midterm and 2028 markets on here, the major ones have good money matched already but, as we get closer to the events, massive amounts will be traded, so patience for now, no need to go mad, build a base, ready for the real action to get going
I know nothing about UK politics; (why watch the sideshow, when The Greatest Show On Earth is playing out in front of us from America? It's live, it's unscripted and it's free!), but here's some random thoughts re. betting on the US stuff
These markets are long term, with very little happening on a day-to-day basis, meaning most runners in most markets have something of a 'trading range' which, while not inviolable, is fairly predictable. For example, JD's POTUS price has been fluctating between 3.5-ish and 4.1-ish, for months, making it easy to trade to free greens.
Check out US sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, at least for a comparison of how different exchanges are pricing the same thing. Ideally though, get yourself accounts with them, as HUGE arbs are available all the time.
Likewise, keep an eye out for what other UK sites are offering; best exanple being, back in maybe 2022, smarkets had a 'Will The Don be President before 2025?' market. There was an election to be held in 2024, for which he was, from memory, about 2.7 on here but, crucially, even if he won the election, he wouldn't have been inaugurated as President until January 2025. Nevertheless, he traded at around 6.0-7.0 on smarkets, for months, with dearly departed Froggitt raiding his pension fund to lay every bit of free money that appeared with, presumably, backers confusing 'winning the election' with 'becoming President'
With so many markets, tradeable anomalies between them appear. The dems are about 1.3 to win The House in November. Since, (literally!), The Don's very Inauguration Day a year ago, they have been calling for his impeachment over numerous issues and, with them having impeached him twice last time, it's 1.01 they'll do it again, probably numerous times, over things like the Venezuelan narco boats. So, if dems are 1.3 to take The House, the impeachment price should be 1.31 or 1.32, but maybe throw in a bit in case The Don's not still POTUS for whatever reason, call it 1.35, maybe even 1.4. Yet the impeachment price is 1.83. Ok, not much money matched there yet, there will be, but this is the type of anomaly to look for
Political markets are, compared to Specials, incredibly slow moving; anyone reading the two threads I mentioned earlier will see just how slow, particularly for the in-running markets, with all the volatility of Specials, but for serious money. I came up with the 'Disbelief Theory' which explains it; none of us really care about who wins SCD or XF, we're happy to change jackpot win potential to max red in the blink of an eye, (and back again if necessary!), purely on how events are unfolding, with no real personal or emotional involvement or attachment. Not so easy for a lifelong commie to believe that The Don not only could, ever, conceivably actually win, but that he's right on the point of doing so. Thankfully, Political markets seem to be dominated by that sort, keeping the market wrong for ages, disbelief misleading them, as accepting reality would strike at their soul, make them question their innermost beliefs
Listen to the 'No Agenda' podcast; they 'deconstruct the media' giving great insight in to what's really happening, what it all means. Twice weekly, same two fellas every time for 18 years, (one of whom, Adam Curry, 'The Podfather', is generally credited with having invented podcasting), they're invariably ahead of the curve
Don't believe you're getting anything even approaching the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, from any mainstream legacy media; they're all FINNISH, with The Don, over the last 10 years, having exposed them for the FAKE NEWS that they are.
There are many 2026 midterm and 2028 markets on here, the major ones have good money matched already but, as we get closer to the events, massive amounts will be traded, so patience for now, no need to go mad, build a base, ready for the real action to get going
Next pm and next labour leader not good enough for you?
I think the market has got Labour & Reform prices the wrong way round.
| UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election |
| 7 Runners £91,973 Matched |
| 103.1% | 99.7% | |||||||
| Green | 1.82 | 1.83 | 1.84 | 1.86 | 1.87 | 1.9 | £42,229 | |
| £20 | £127 | £16 | £7 | £66 | £61 | |||
| Reform | 3 | 3.05 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.25 | 3.35 | £34,387 | |
| £98 | £8 | £135 | £129 | £8 | £15 | |||
| Labour | 5.9 | 6 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.4 | £14,500 | |
| £8 | £87 | £15 | £262 | £19 | £16 | |||
| Workers Party of Britain | 400 | 450 | 1000 | - | - | - | £777 | |
| £9 | £4 | £7 | ||||||
| Advance UK | 10 | 250 | 1000 | - | - | - | £4 | |
| £1 | £1 | £25 | ||||||
| Conservative | 600 | 610 | 1000 | - | - | - | £37 | |
| £1 | £1 | £26 | ||||||
| Liberal Democrats | 410 | 500 | 1000 | - | - | - | £39 | |
| £1 | £5 | £30 |
Someone been getting a chunk on rayner for days. Make of that what you will. Looks a very good time for a challenge
Think labour should be 20s for Gorton tbh
Think labour should be 20s for Gorton tbh
If anyone has the bank Lammy is 32 to lay next PM, 50 to back Labour lol
Been other discrepancies but that one is extreme
Been other discrepancies but that one is extreme
Going the other way, you can look at burnham prices
The backer thinks Lammy might be settled as Pm if Starmer resigns, but that is an Interim PM at best, not official Pm
And our constitution says the Pm remains until a contest is over, see May And Boris
Been told by Ireland help desk they'll only settle pm after a contest, I have the receipts
Been told by Ireland help desk they'll only settle pm after a contest,
Hmmm,.. I'm not 100% that will hold up.
Of course it's got to be 99.99% there will be a contest
But sunak was more or less uncontested, and pretty sure they paid out.
Rules..
Who will be the next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer?
This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Labour Party leader after Keir Starmer, as chosen by a Labour Party leadership contest. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request.
In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
Hmmm,.. I'm not 100% that will hold up.
Of course it's got to be 99.99% there will be a contest
But sunak was more or less uncontested, and pretty sure they paid out.
Rules..
Who will be the next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer?
This market will be settled based on the first official announcement of the next permanent Labour Party leader after Keir Starmer, as chosen by a Labour Party leadership contest. Betfair reserves the right to suspend, cancel unmatched bets and turn in-play or re-open this market as and when information becomes available to it. Additional runners may be added upon request.
In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.
Contest means either Labour contest or GE, I'm sure
The point was they won't be settling on lammy if he takes over during a leadership election
Yep, agreed on that.
I'm just so wary of info given out by
customer services etc.
At least you've got direct proof for your own
bets to fall back on if they do something stupid.
I'm just so wary of info given out by
customer services etc.
At least you've got direct proof for your own
bets to fall back on if they do something stupid.
Enough for ibas then the court case lol.
All calming down now. I wonder if ange was testing the water and didn't have enough support.
It'll ramp up again after the by election then the locals
All calming down now. I wonder if ange was testing the water and didn't have enough support.
It'll ramp up again after the by election then the locals
I remember a similar thing happening with May about 6 years ago. I tried to be clever and play to the BF rules, but didn't work out
What were you trying? Although one sided there was definitely a contest
Yep May market was a farce, as rules somewhat contradicted
the heading on the market, and revolved around definition
and interpretation of resign.
Think some folk went to court, and got a settlement.
the heading on the market, and revolved around definition
and interpretation of resign.
Think some folk went to court, and got a settlement.
Next?
It's counter intuitive to back burnham, but I don't think it'll be long before they are asked that question again, 400 mps, that's a lot that could go any minute
It's counter intuitive to back burnham, but I don't think it'll be long before they are asked that question again, 400 mps, that's a lot that could go any minute
Keir Starmer: "I want 10 years in No 10 and will fight my challengers"
He may want that lol. What do we think of makerfield?
Labour too short? Or actually the poll pretty good for them given previous bias to reform by survation?
Labour too short? Or actually the poll pretty good for them given previous bias to reform by survation?
Feb 27, 2026 -- 11:13AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:
Next?It's counter intuitive to back burnham, but I don't think it'll be long before they are asked that question again, 400 mps, that's a lot that could go any minute
Oh yesssh
I don't think Burnham is far off being home n hosed n that
Another terrible reform candidate, the chance to remove starmer, restore skimming off a bit. Payouts soon
Next for me, maybe Ossoff for potus
Another terrible reform candidate, the chance to remove starmer, restore skimming off a bit. Payouts soon
Next for me, maybe Ossoff for potus
Apart from Winstanley who has no chance anyway, the candidates on QT last Thursday were truly useless - not that Burnham was great, but the others were appallingly useless by barely being able to string a coherent sentence together.
The reform candidate missed some open goals and looked like he didn't have the force of personality to make himself count in this by-election, the market probably has it right.
GeorgeBrush 04 Jun 26 23:59
Next for me, maybe Ossoff for potus
The activism and the energy within the dems is full on woke commie, making it very hard for an, (in name only), 'moderate' to win enough primaries. The base have a checklist for candidates:
White? Not ideal, but liveable with
Male? Even worse!
Hetero? Oh no, please not!
Of that!!! religion??? NEXT!!!
Next for me, maybe Ossoff for potus
The activism and the energy within the dems is full on woke commie, making it very hard for an, (in name only), 'moderate' to win enough primaries. The base have a checklist for candidates:
White? Not ideal, but liveable with
Male? Even worse!
Hetero? Oh no, please not!
Of that!!! religion??? NEXT!!!
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