Politics betting thread

Just to clarify let's just talk about odds and bets here, save the slapstick for the other section

Cider I suspect can distinguish between bets and dogma, even his own :)

It's closer to specials than anything else. Popularity and motivation

It's closer to specials than anything else. Popularity and motivation

Very true, though I find the variables too wide, general and basically boring to follow personally - are there any shortcuts?

Rayner is so low because of punters not believing the membership will accept streeting. But I think that's wrong tbh and it'll be streeting whatever

Use labour leader market though?  Removes the slight risk of starmer hanging on.

Good idea George to look between both markets.

We used to have some fantastic Political threads, the best one ever being 'US Election 2016' (it's on page 4, with hilary matched for chunks at 1.09), and the Brexit 'EU Jimmy' one, (on page 12, remain matched for chunks at 1.06). Indeed, after never having taken any interest in politics, (they're all effers!), that '2016' thread kinda changed my life! A somewhat casual first post of mine declaring that 'The Don will romp it', lead to me thinking maybe I really should learn something about it before spewing such bombast; so, for 10 years now, I've followed US Politics closer than anyone I know, even to the extent of going to The Don's Inauguration last year, and Charlie Kirk's funeral service.

I know nothing about UK politics; (why watch the sideshow, when The Greatest Show On Earth is playing out in front of us from America? It's live, it's unscripted and it's free!), but here's some random thoughts re. betting on the US stuff

These markets are long term, with very little happening on a day-to-day basis, meaning most runners in most markets have something of a 'trading range' which, while not inviolable, is fairly predictable. For example, JD's POTUS price has been fluctating between 3.5-ish and 4.1-ish, for months, making it easy to trade to free greens.

Check out US sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, at least for a comparison of how different exchanges are pricing the same thing. Ideally though, get yourself accounts with them, as HUGE arbs are available all the time.

Likewise, keep an eye out for what other UK sites are offering; best exanple being, back in maybe 2022, smarkets had a 'Will The Don be President before 2025?' market. There was an election to be held in 2024, for which he was, from memory, about 2.7 on here but, crucially, even if he won the election, he wouldn't have been inaugurated as President until January 2025. Nevertheless, he traded at around 6.0-7.0 on smarkets, for months, with dearly departed Froggitt raiding his pension fund to lay every bit of free money that appeared with, presumably, backers confusing 'winning the election' with 'becoming President'

With so many markets, tradeable anomalies between them appear. The dems are about 1.3 to win The House in November. Since, (literally!), The Don's very Inauguration Day a year ago, they have been calling for his impeachment over numerous issues and, with them having impeached him twice last time, it's 1.01 they'll do it again, probably numerous times, over things like the Venezuelan narco boats. So, if dems are 1.3 to take The House, the impeachment price should be 1.31 or 1.32, but maybe throw in a bit in case The Don's not still POTUS for whatever reason, call it 1.35, maybe even 1.4. Yet the impeachment price is 1.83. Ok, not much money matched there yet, there will be, but this is the type of anomaly to look for

Political markets are, compared to Specials, incredibly slow moving; anyone reading the two threads I mentioned earlier will see just how slow, particularly for the in-running markets, with all the volatility of Specials, but for serious money. I came up with the 'Disbelief Theory' which explains it; none of us really care about who wins SCD or XF, we're happy to change jackpot win potential to max red in the blink of an eye, (and back again if necessary!), purely on how events are unfolding, with no real personal or emotional involvement or attachment. Not so easy for a lifelong commie to believe that The Don not only could, ever, conceivably actually win, but that he's right on the point of doing so. Thankfully, Political markets seem to be dominated by that sort, keeping the market wrong for ages, disbelief misleading them, as accepting reality would strike at their soul, make them question their innermost beliefs

Listen to the 'No Agenda' podcast; they 'deconstruct the media' giving great insight in to what's really happening, what it all means. Twice weekly, same two fellas every time for 18 years, (one of whom, Adam Curry, 'The Podfather', is generally credited with having invented podcasting), they're invariably ahead of the curve

Don't believe you're getting anything even approaching the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, from any mainstream legacy media; they're all FINNISH, with The Don, over the last 10 years, having exposed them for the FAKE NEWS that they are.

There are many 2026 midterm and 2028 markets on here, the major ones have good money matched already but, as we get closer to the events, massive amounts will be traded, so patience for now, no need to go mad, build a base, ready for the real action to get going

Been lots of fun with the burnham shennanegins

Next pm and next labour leader not good enough for you?

I think the market has got Labour & Reform prices the wrong way round.

UK - By-Elections -- 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election

7 Runners            £91,973 Matched

			103.1%		99.7%
Green	1.82	1.83	1.84		1.86	1.87	1.9	£42,229
	£20	£127	£16		£7	£66	£61
Reform	3	3.05	3.1		3.2	3.25	3.35	£34,387
	£98	£8	£135		£129	£8	£15
Labour	5.9	6	6.2		6.8	7.2	7.4	£14,500
	£8	£87	£15		£262	£19	£16
Workers Party of Britain	400	450	1000		-	-	-	£777
	£9	£4	£7
Advance UK	10	250	1000		-	-	-	£4
	£1	£1	£25
Conservative	600	610	1000		-	-	-	£37
	£1	£1	£26
Liberal Democrats	410	500	1000		-	-	-	£39
	£1	£5	£30

If anyone has the bank Lammy is 32 to lay next PM, 50 to back Labour lol

Been other discrepancies but that one is extreme

Going the other way, you can look at burnham prices

And our constitution says the Pm remains until a contest is over, see May And Boris

Or of course a general election

Contest means either Labour contest or GE, I'm sure

The point was they won't be settling on lammy if he takes over during a leadership election

Enough for ibas then the court case lol.

All calming down now.  I wonder if ange was testing the water and didn't have enough support.

It'll ramp up again after the by election then the locals

What were you trying? Although one sided there was definitely a contest