Oscars 2026

One Battle After Another: 97 on Metacritic, 98 on Rotten Tomatoes. Game Over

Above post from Gold Derby, so lots of critical love, on the downside the film is very divisive though it should appeal to the Hollywood crew. All that said 5/4 is very short at this stage as there are a few dangers about.

5/4 does seem crazy at this stage, although looking at the field it doesn’t look the deepest. Hamnet looks only legit other front runner right now but get the impression accolades might come more for the cast (Buckley best actress & maybe Mescal a run at best actor/supporting) depending which route they take. Academy can be hit and miss with horror films & Sinners was an earlier release so feels like a lot of the early hype might be built into current price, so would expect that to ease out in the coming weeks. After  the Hunt looked like a likely runner on paper but looks like initial reaction to that is it’s a complete misfire. Marty supreme still has potential at bigger prices but feels 50:50 as to how that will be received.

Honourable mentions;
Smashing machine - feels more SAG/Globe type
Testament of Ann Lee - Seyfried looks live for best actress but think film will likely get  overlooked in bigger categories
No other choice - NEON has three live contenders this year so may be vulnerable depending which of the three they want to push.
Netflix also have a few interesting one,  although imagine they are the types to do better in the sound, editing and score categories. Although Emilia Perez success last year could make one of them a dark horse.