|
By:
I've long been following her training holidays. I've got a right arm like popeye
|
|
By:
She has a few more 'fans' this year for sure
|
|
By:
I had some 50/1 ew a few weeks ago. Didn't realise she'd been tipped up beforehand and not sure anyone has mentioned it on this thread. Wasn't mentioned by the tipster. But there is a path to victory if she beats the WR.
I'm old enough to remember Kratochvilova's WR which is the longest standing WR in athletics. Anyone who hasn't heard of her, I'd look "her" up. She was the embodiement of the dark days of athletics in the 70s and 80s (when the sport was hugely popular) when state sponsored steroid abuse was going unchecked and Eastern European women were unbeatable. I've always considered it an untouchable WR. But, sports science and big advances in footwear the last few years have seen middle distance times tumble. This track is fast. 7 of the 8 runners in the 2021 Olympic final broke their PB. Keely is better this year than last year. Her two runs this year have been her best ever imo. It's a big stretch, and it she'll have to set the pace herself, which she often does and which I think she will to avoid the chance of getting tripped or trapped. I watched a YT video, exploring the possbility, which was what made me bet her in the first place. I had it my head that no one had got close to it and it was borderline impossible for a clean female athlete, but actually she's only just over a second outside it in her two runs this year. Now I do think it's feasible, albeit still very unlikely. Otherwise, you are backing her for 3rd place (imo). |
|
By:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upas1_NlLoU
That was the video I watched. The only thing I disagree with is that her best chance of beating the WR is at the World Championship, not at the meeting mentioned |
|
By:
that video is only just over 2 weeks old, so "a few weeks ago" was obviously only a couple of weeks. Felt like longer!
|
|
By:
Was doing my own research on this Clyde and found some interesting bits but wasn't gonna bother highlighting it until you made me make the effort, nice find on the youtube vid btw.
As it still stands she's 40/1 to win SPOTY, so the big question is......is she 40/1 to beat the world record ?? Coz if she beats it, she p1sses SPOTY. Answer is a resounding no for several reasons, down to conditions, track, technology and Keely herself. We know tech has vastly improved recently, we also know this track is very, very fast so its on Keely's shoulders imo. Running the fastest time of the year - one minute 54.74 seconds, a mere 0.13 seconds short of her British record - in a statement comeback performance, before taking another commanding win in Lausanne, it was as if she had never been away. The challenges of the past year have provided a sense of freedom rarely granted to Olympic champions - and which she is unlikely to have felt since her most recent visit to Tokyo thrust her into the spotlight. She has taken the opportunity to rebuild solid foundations, with her increased strength reflected in personal bests in the gym, and says she has emerged as determined as ever. Hodgkinson’s personal best, which she set in London in July last year, is 1.33 seconds slower but Lewis, speaking in her new role as England Golf ambassador, insisted Kratochvilova’s benchmark is not out of reach. “I know it’s extremely difficult but with technology, the right mindset, the right race, the right conditions, she’s talented enough to do it,” Lewis, the 2000 Olympic heptathlon champion, said. Keely was only 0.13 seconds of breaking her own british record in the comeback race, that's absolutely insane. Her long break off, meaning long periods in the gym where she has continually beaten her PB's has made her super strong. So with all this in mind, if she ran this race 40 times. How many times would she beat the world record given how the race is ran ? It's 100% more than once, maybe 2 or 3 times imo...meaning the 40/1 on offer right now is standout value to win SPOTY Even if it don't happen at the Worlds and she stays fit, strong and gets mighty close to the record. Keely could well have another crack at the Athlos all female meeting on October 10th. Quotes were taken from here: . https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/articles/c4g6z1kggrvo . https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/keely-hodgkinson-denise-lewis-lewis-diamond-league-paris-b2822258.html |
|
By:
Just reading some comments from that vid, which are worth posting
Interesting you mention Keely's tactics in Paris last year. I would add my two cents. The pressure on Keely to win her first title was immense so finally doing that was a weight off of her shoulders. The women's 800 final in Paris was the first time in 36 years that the final was held the day after the semi final, instead of the standard rest day between semi final and final which is back for Tokyo. Keely was also the first to run 1.56 two days running- I think now that weight is gone, Keely can definitely front run a fast time in a champ final. No championship has been won in 1.54 since Jelimo in Beijing and I think that is a reachable target Thanks a lot! Great point regarding the tactics - I had assumed she would just do something similar to last year, but all that context makes sense. A statement run makes more sense this year with the pressure off, and fast times have been run with no pacemakers in the 800m, with Rudisha 2012 and Wanyonyi’s Olympic gun-to-tape win last year prime examples. In fact, I wonder whether sending it might actually be the way of Keely ensuring she wins? If she controls it from the front but slower, and they reach the 600m point in 1:28 or so, it’s not an absolute guarantee she beats them all in the last 200, with Georgia Hunter-Bell closing pretty hard recently. But if she takes it through 600 in 1:25, then everyone is dropped and she just has to hold something reasonable to the line to win. |
|
By:
Was wondering if Keely would attend the Athlos meeting but the BBC are reporting its a yes, decent money up for grabs.
Olympic 800m champion Keely Hodgkinson has signed up to compete in the all-female Athlos New York City event this autumn. Athlos is a project backed by Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian's venture capital firm Seven Seven Six. The Briton, who has not raced since winning 800m gold at the Paris Olympics last August, will compete in the second edition of the athletics event on 10 October. The 23-year-old misses the London Diamond League meet this weekend as a result of a hamstring tear in February. British 400m record holder Amber Anning - who won two relay bronze medals at the Paris Olympics and the individual world 400m indoors title in March - and American 200m Olympic champion Gabby Thomas are among those also participating. Last year's winners took home $60,000 (£44,603) - one of the largest prize purses in athletics. Ohanian is married to 23-time tennis Grand Slam singles champion Serena Williams and bought an 8-10% stake in Chelsea Women in May. The inaugural competition took place last September and was a track-only event but the second meeting will include the long jump, which is set to be headlined by American Olympic champion Tara Davis-Woodhall. . https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/athletics/articles/c4g281n71ndo |
|
By:
See Femke Bol and Yaroslava Mahunchikh are at the worlds and both odds on to complete the same Olympic/World double as Keely, both winning European Athlete of the year (announced in October) in the last 3 years. Bol 2022/23 and Mahunchikh last year.
Surely even without the record and just a gold, its Keely's turn to get this award. |
|
By:
If she did win and broke the WR I'd probably consider her down to around 5.0 or maybe lower to win SPOTY - she still wouldn't quite be a cert ever, given the women footy players up against her, but a strong shout against them for sure.
|
|
By:
stu
Are you taking into consideration its a very fair shout both Chloe and Hannah get shortlisted, which will heavily depend on Ballon results and the England player of the year award |
|
By:
Bearing in mind its very questionable whether Chloe deserves the player of the year award considering she was a sub and hardly contributed much at club level, very dependant on how many casuals took part in that public vote ofc. If they did she would probably hose it, but from my understanding that vote wasn't widely circulated even inside obsessed fan forum pages of big clubs.
I just checked womens arsenal fc forum on fb which has 356k members, went back to 15th Aug - 25th Aug when the vote as live. It wasn't posted up at all |
|
By:
Could go either way, like you suggest - but they will always be a pretty heavy 'blocker' against Keely going very short in this market.
|
|
By:
Relatedly, there's a keen Chloe backer around right now, just taken her odds on!
|
|
By:
I might actually go and check some Chelsea fan sites to see if it was posted on them, as Bronze who i favour to win the award plays for Chelsea along with Hannah.
I was hoping to find something on the Arsenal page indicating Russo would of more likely got more votes from Arsenal fans, who are the biggest supported team in the country. As she is a club legend, Chloe only joined in January |
|
By:
The Chloe backer is heavily gambling imo, Chloe needs to win awards over other England players to make the shortlist. Starting with the Ballon on Monday, i think she struggles massively to get above other England players in that award
|
|
By:
She may well win the public vote award, which would be a significant help to her cause..where the panel are concerned, buts its no gimmie as the vote wasn't widely known
|
|
By:
It's why I've held fire so far on this market - just feel too many unknowns at moment - even Rory could jump back into it, though not likely now.
|
|
By:
Rory was a 1000 shot before the voting change, i'd make around 20/1 now and thats being generous
|
|
By:
Pretty easy lay now around 5/2 still...?
|
|
By:
Does he still feel like the only 'traditional/male' selection though as a benefit?
|
|
By:
The only chance Rory has of winning is if the shortlist ends up like this
Two england players No Lando No Keely He might scrape past Littler or a rugby girl but even thats not guaranteed, i just think his task is extremely difficult even with a Ryder Cup win |
|
By:
stu 16 Sep 25 12:28
Does he still feel like the only 'traditional/male' selection though as a benefit? Simply immaterial with the amount of new young watchers to SPOTY, namely women |
|
By:
How many men watching do you think will fill out the online requests, compared to the amount of women that will.
I think its ckose to 90% of women will, be lucky if 50% of men will bother |
|
By:
I agree in general, I don't think he wins this, just playing devil's advocate for the options.
|
|
By:
Golf's viewership is generally 10% of Athletics and footy, he really does need a miracle in this new era of women dominated SPOTY. Especially as its not going anywhere this year again, Womens Euor's and Rugby World cup have made sure they stay fully in the spotlight. This year will be watched by more women than ever down to those two comps
|
|
By:
The voting change does make this less predictable now, more likely of a surprise lotto type winner.....but not Rory
|
|
By:
I'd price him around the 10.0 sort of price currently, on my tissue. He's still a long-ish shot vs the girlies here, but not totally written off.
|
|
By:
A system designed for one person one vote does work against local votes or campaigns. Still, punters like rory. Punters are more golf brained than the average voter now
|
|
By:
In golf betting terms, which i do every week i can..the market absolutely loves two people no matter where they are on the leader board, even 10 back after two days. Not so much with Scottie coz he is just insane but i do find with Rory he creates masses of value to the field coz of how the market adores him. Watching this market is really just a clone of that
|
|
By:
Regarding Scottie coz that didn't quite make sense, when the market loves him..you take notice, coz he's capable of pulling off unreal shots and wins.
The market loves Rory virtually the same, but he just doesn't threaten on the course like Scottie does. I very often take Rory on in the market but doing that with Scottie is just not good for the wallet |
|
By:
The World Record might be just out of reach for now but one record that isn't is the World Championship record, which Jarmila also holds. 1:54.68 set in Helsinki 1983. She was only 0.06 off this on her return to the track after 376 days off the track. Her British record is actually faster at 1:54.61.
So she may not get the WR but she has a great chance of bettering her British Record and claiming the World Championship Record at the same time. 1:53.28 WR & ER - J Kratochvilova - Munich 26th July 1983 1:53.43 OR - N Olizarenko - Moscow 27th July 1980 1:54.68 WCR - J Kratochvilova - Helsinki 9th August 1983 Keely 2nd and 3rd fastest times ever happened last month 1:54.61 British Record - London 20th July 2024 1:54.74 2nd fastest - Chorzow 16th August 2025 1:55.69 3rd fastest - Lausanne 20th August 2025 (conditions for this race were awful) So will Keely be the only Gold medal winner from the Olympics and the World championships on the track and will she break a record doing it ? |
|
By:
army no one gives a monkeys about the British record or championship record.
The WR is different. Not just because of it being a WR, but because of who held it and how long it's been held for. Beating that WR would transcend the sport. |
|
By:
your average voter isn't gonna realise the significance of breaking that world record but anyone old enough to remember kratochvilova certainly will
|
|
By:
One step at a time Clyde, i think she will seriously attempt that at the Athlos meeting when the pressure is completely off having secured this much wanted World Gold.
Although the weather looks perfect for her to have a real go at it right now, around 21 rest of week |
|
By:
I suspect the average voter couldn't give two sh1ts about any records, they focus on the Gold Medal around your neck and Keely will be the only British Athlete having done that last year and this year !!!
That will be the big story line along with being the youngest ever British Olympic/World double champion, achieving it back to back events - that is what the average voter will care about more |
|
By:
Also if she does pull it off, the media are gonna go totally banana's about her having 376 days off the track to come along and blitz everyone off the track to take Gold.
Endless interviews for Keely she'll be splashed all over the tv for weeks on end, that is all an average voter needs to say 'wow, that is some unreal achievement' This world record angle is massive in the grand scheme of things, but only for diehard Athletic fans...those same diehard fans are guaranteed to vote for Keely regardless of whether she breaks the WR or not. Too much energy on here being spent on the WR angle, my OP wasn't focused on that...it was focused on her being the youngest, how rare it is and her time off injured. Those 3 angles are big enough for any average voter to get behind her, as an individual who has done something remarkable. |
|
By:
Keely has said winning this would mean more to her than winning the Olympics, she's already planting seeds in the minds of any voter who was thinking, she won last year so im not voting for her again this time. Most will agree she deserves to win SPOTY again
|
|
By:
The Keely show starts tomorrow at 11:00 am on BBC2, she is racing in Heat 1 at 11:58 am
|
|
By:
Better bloody win after all this typing
|