Specials
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Eurovision 2025
Eurovision 2025
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Replies: 593
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Well done winners!!! Another great year of fun. See you in 7 months haha
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360 days ;)
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I prefer to research 5 months before hand and then lose. Just how I roll
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Some Voice the winner has
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Once again proved that no one has inside info in the betting, like with Croatia last year
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I think the best opportunity for me Lifter is to come into it with no baggage, with just a trading perspective. All the research makes you attached to runners, an have market positions, which deflects away from the massive in running trading opportunities. Let other people try to get to the juicy info first and create the shape of the market.
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Israel wins the public vote from a left wing wokey LBGT show ... something stinks
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I'm wondering what the audience votes alone would amount to. Anyone know? Seems the juries are still playing 'love thy neighbour' after all these years. Cyprus 12 pts for Greece ffs! Etc etc. About time their vote was scrapped - let the masses decide.
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Norton was about to have a nervous breakdown if he had to talk through Israel winning
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Look at the playing field and bet accordingly
ain't profitable to to bet and then moan about the slant on the pitch G'Luck |
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Market acted like it knew the jury result.
- Estonia were supposed to be tanked in it, but weren't, and the money for it was strong in side markets, halved in price. - France were touted to win the jury score in it, but didn't, and drifted. - Austria won the jury and money was very strong for it. - Sweden got within 125 points of jury lead and it was thought that could be enough to win (many thought it would get up to 350, but most thought at least 300) |
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France absolutely tanked on the pv, 50 points from the 3rd fav
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Ukraine won SF1
SF2 not uploaded yet but reckon Israel have won in a landslide |
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20 Malta
21 Portugal 22 Denmark 23 Sweden 24 France 25 San Marino (last place) 26 Albania It's notable how many of the last acts didn't make the top 10, I was a bit reluctant to lay some of them, I'll have more courage next year. |
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semi 1
1 Ukraine 2 Albania 3 Netherlands Sweden 4 |
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Estonia 5
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Latvia 2nd, Christ how would've predicted that
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Estonia got 3rd place from slot 3, Aust won from 9, (Israel 2nd from 4 but political vote).
RO not so much a thing for the right song. |
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Estonia 2nd on televote, effectively first ignoring Israel. It was a superior novelty song to Sweden after all. But always likely to be hamstrung by the juries.
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The dynamics are curious, beat all four countries that beat them in the semi on the televote.
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televote only I'm referencing. Ned was the same to me semi to final, his vocal was pretty weak in both but wasn't a standout entry. I expected Ned to be stronger with jury vs tv.
semi 2 1 Israel 2 Latvia 3 Finland 4 Greece 5 Austria Austria 5th in the televote in the semi, and 4th in the final. You'd have thought the more niche / EV fan audience would have benefited Austria in the semi televote. Access to the semi results might have left you potless! |
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cider then maybe many need a couple of listens to get it, it is very different
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who was that escapee_
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It's fair to say in my view that Estonia and Sweden were fishing in pretty much the same pond, and both likely to be nobbled by the juries. Yes a much more historically favoured RO for the fav, and a tad less 'novelty'.
One was about 2.2 at the post, the other about 50. |
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Eurovision 2026 Winner market now up and running on Betfair. Let the fun/games begin. Link to Eurovision 2026 Winner market: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/special-bets/market/1.243751273
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Poor year, left with a compromise crap winner than seemed to be written by ai based on what won last year. Mind, i also hated the novelty crap. And israel was the worst of the lot
I had a pre jury bet on the swiss that did well, but was never going to return much. The public were absolute wnkers this time lol Well done anyone dragging a profit out of that mess |
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IMHO
Israel had some dodgy rigging on the public vote no question but they were probably under voted on the Jury vote as the song was the usual soulless/boring rubbish that passes for music these days but was far from the worst and she sung it ok. Deserved a top 10 on Jury vote given the quality was awful over all. Laughable some people thought they wouldn't be allowed to enter given the main sponsors are an Israeli company. The UKs entry was awful and was sung even worse. It perfectly summed up modern pop music. Utter trash sung by tramps. The contest over the last 25 years has gradually gotten worse and worse going from an entertaining simple song contest to a political PR friendly vote when the public vote was allowed in to a over produced electronic Gay pride parade as it currently is. Do musical instruments exist anymore? Its just mass produced dirge. Last night was some of the worse sounds ever foisted on human ears. Utter excrement. BTW one last point whoever tunes up the mics/volumes/equipment at the contest needs serious investigation. Its laughable how obvious they are in poor setups for some countries versus others. Thats not recent either |
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Was the perfect set up for me, hot fav that was likely to struggle with the juries. Then it's about maximising the opportunity. As stated pre off, I was planning to get stuck into Estonia in all of the Top X markets after the jury reveal, but too much going on and unbelievably my machine decided to die on me toward the end of jury reveal. Lesson there, need a back up ready to go
 Take out from the trading was how the heavy players would simply not give up on Sweden. By rights I should have been able to square off my lay to back for a more comfortable vote reveal in running, but they never reflected the true price until they were actually beaten. In fact they went in again to make them long odds on. Incredible. Some people much have done their absolute conkers. |
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EV is just nonsense throwaway tv 95% of viewers will already have forgotten about. Israel pv is easily explained, with the spread of voting across 20+ runners, it doesn't take a high percentage to top it. Norton was extremely unprofessional when Israel were actually threatening to win the OR for a while, he is a disgrace but hardly surprising on the endlessly anti-semitic bbc.
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When I first heard KAJ at Melo I didn't particularly like the song, but after multiple listens, it became my favourite song. I think Sweden probably had a much lower televote % from those who were first time listeners.
The market acted like it knew the jury score. I wonder if a big player got access to it early. Before the first few songs there was money for Sweden and Austria, money against France and Finland and even more importantly, money on Estonia and against Albania in all the markets (the perfect play having seen them get nearly 100 points in the jury when it was expected they would get hardly any). They made ever move you would have, having seen the jury vote |
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I didn't see anything that looked like informed money.
Maybe if you swapped the entries for Sweden and Estonia the prices at the off would have been a lot different. I was quite confident Estonia would beat Sweden on the televote, but that doesn't make you money. So I saw the best opportunity to capitalise on that aspect was Estonia in the Top X markets after the jury reveal was completed. I did get Est a little for T5, but nothing like I was planning beforehand. I won on every market I played in, 2 years running now so not at all complaining. |
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Europe's population is approaching 800 million, and there are, what, maybe 200-odd jurists? Do YOU feel each of those jurists is worth FOUR MILLION OF YOU??? That their views are FOUR MILLION TIMES 'BETTER' THAN YOURS??? That they are FOUR MILLION TIMES MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOU???
NO!!!!!! PHUCK RIGHT OFF WITH SUCH PROPAGANDISED CONTROL OVER US!!! PHUCK RIGHT OFF WITH SO-CALLED 'elites' (CHORTLE!!!) STEALING VICTORY FROM THE PEOPLE'S FAVOURITE, ISRAEL!!! AGAIN!!!!!! PHUCK RIGHT OFF WITH JURIES!!! As the greatest document ever written tells us; 'When it comes to ESC voting, ALL MEN ARE CREATED EQUAL!!!' |
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Thanks Tim, I needed a good laugh. All men are obv not "created equal". I believe in intelligent design but not the man made bible. You need to take your lithium and give up your fav shills
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20-odd years of betting on ESC, I don't recall suspicions of a JV leak being discussed, it's been clean. Mad price swings in prices is why we can all win at 'Specials', they are the very secret to success. So, Sweden going from 2.2(?) at the show's start, down to 1.6x, shouldn't cause any suspicion, it's what 'our' markets do. Except for the fact that there's normally a reason for the swings and, even if we aren't fully aware of events driving the movements at the time, it usually becomes more widely known (best example? Katie Price walking on IAC).
But there's no such explanation for last night, there was no new info, nothing had changed, voting was still open, etc, etc. Casuals? No, because they would tend to be 10 and 20 quidders, not supplying the thousands piling on to Sweden. They also tend not to bother backing 4/6 shots, they prefer a bit of a price. Sweden hugely underperformed on TV expectations, driven by polls schmolls, so anyone with access to the JV results could quite reasonably have thought the TV would have been large enough to get them over the line, but not confident enough to drive the price down to 1.01 Verdict? A Hung Jury; they voted 8-4 'Just Specials markets doing their thing' |