Eurovision 2025

if estonia smashed the public vote....

cracking betting heat so far

Market is confident that sweden is going to massively win the public vote (1.7 to win outright)

too short

That’s too short. It looks pretty 50/50, maybe even Austria should be fav

Israel 297 TV, only to be robbed again by r1gged and cowardly JV

bosh

Swedes bashed

Wow!

Israel could win lol

Imagine lol

Surely it wouldn't actually be staged in Israel if they won

Could it be an Anti-Palestine vote...

Got my money
Thank you

Well done Austria

BACK FAVOURITES

Sweden 197 televotes. That is insane.

PHUCKING ROBBING JURY BAST@RDS!!!

UK as popular as ever

As ever the voting far superior to the singing.

Well done winners

easily the maddest and most exciting betting heat of the year, ev voting in running

crazy prices being traded on sweden

JJ
BE JO JO NEXT YEAR

Escapee

17 Mar 25 12:16
Austria, The winner is Austria.

Israel is the best song, but I don't think ESC will want to hold the competition there in 2026.
So unless ESC do a deal to hold it elsewhere in 2026 if they win, then Austria will win it.


Austria has single young attractive boy, high pitch voice, vocal intonation, some emotion,
and a fairly well crafted musical progression-conclusion. All assets which combine to make it
appealing to the judges and the televoters across Europe.
Sweden's song assets are narrower, it lacks emotion, it's a 'joke' song relying on having a catchy hook which is debateable and needs listening too a few times to catch.

As I've mentioned before, I'm an ESC novice, so make your own mind up.
G'luck

FFFFFFFFFUQIN YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

No offers

Would have been carnage had the juries not tanked Israel again as they topped the votes.

Great call Escapee.

Well done winners!!! Another great year of fun. See you in 7 months haha

360 days ;)

I prefer to research 5 months before hand and then lose. Just how I roll

Some Voice the winner has

Once again proved that no one has inside info in the betting, like with Croatia last year

I think the best opportunity for me Lifter is to come into it with no baggage, with just a trading perspective. All the research makes you attached to runners, an have market positions, which deflects away from the massive in running trading opportunities. Let other people try to get to the juicy info first and create the shape of the market.

I prefer to research 5 months before hand and then lose. Just how I roll

I thought I was doing the same

Israel wins the public vote from a left wing wokey LBGT show ... something stinks

I'm wondering what the audience votes alone would amount to. Anyone know? Seems the juries are still playing 'love thy neighbour' after all these years. Cyprus 12 pts for Greece ffs! Etc etc. About time their vote was scrapped - let the masses decide.

Norton was about to have a nervous breakdown if he had to talk through Israel winning

Look at the playing field and bet accordingly

ain't profitable to to bet and then moan about the slant on the pitch

G'Luck

Market acted like it knew the jury result.
- Estonia were supposed to be tanked in it, but weren't, and the money for it was strong in side markets, halved in price.
- France were touted to win the jury score in it, but didn't, and drifted.
- Austria won the jury and money was very strong for it.
- Sweden got within 125 points of jury lead and it was thought that could be enough to win (many thought it would get up to 350, but most thought at least 300)

France absolutely tanked on the pv, 50 points from the 3rd fav

Ukraine won SF1
SF2 not uploaded yet but reckon Israel have won in a landslide

20     Malta   
21     Portugal  
22     Denmark   
23     Sweden   
24     France   
25     San Marino (last place)
26     Albania

It's notable how many of the last acts didn't make the top 10, I was a bit reluctant to lay some of them, I'll have more courage next year.

semi 1

1   
Ukraine
2   
Albania
3   
Netherlands

Sweden 4

Estonia 5

Latvia 2nd, Christ how would've predicted that

Estonia got 3rd place from slot 3, Aust won from 9, (Israel 2nd from 4 but political vote).

RO not so much a thing for the right song.

Estonia 2nd on televote, effectively first ignoring Israel. It was a superior novelty song to Sweden after all. But always likely to be hamstrung by the juries.

The dynamics are curious, beat all four countries that beat them in the semi on the televote.

May 18, 2025 -- 12:54AM, Cider wrote:

semi 11

May 18, 2025 -- 1:23AM, Cider wrote:

The dynamics are curious, beat all four countries that beat them in the semi on the televote.

possible explanations:

Ukraine - juries crushed them

Albania - they still did better than expected, got T10, but the very last slot in F doesn't have a great record, probably just because the organisers put the best songs a couple of slots before

Netherlands - poor guy was very nervous, was much much better in SF

Sweden - SFs have a bigger percentage of bubble than F

televote only I'm referencing. Ned was the same to me semi to final, his vocal was pretty weak in both but wasn't a standout entry. I expected Ned to be stronger with jury vs tv.

semi 2

1 Israel
2 Latvia
3 Finland
4 Greece
5 Austria

Austria 5th in the televote in the semi, and 4th in the final. You'd have thought the more niche / EV fan audience would have benefited Austria in the semi televote.

Access to the semi results might have left you potless!

Estonia 2nd on televote, effectively first ignoring Israel. It was a superior novelty song to Sweden after all. But always likely to be hamstrung by the juries.

His social media footprint was huge.

a few years back there was a celeb BB, first show I recognised (only) one of the entrants who I knew to have a mega SM footprint from 10 years back, I put up £100 at 11's  unmatched, cancelled after an hour in a moment of sanity (WTF do I know about BB? nuffing), he traded at 20's over the course of the show and won it.


Prior SM footprint is huge in these markets.

cider then maybe many need a couple of listens to get it, it is very different

who was that escapee_

It's fair to say in my view that Estonia and Sweden were fishing in pretty much the same pond, and both likely to be nobbled by the juries. Yes a much more historically favoured RO for the fav, and a tad less 'novelty'.

One was about 2.2 at the post, the other about 50.

Eurovision 2026 Winner market now up and running on Betfair. Let the fun/games begin. Link to Eurovision 2026 Winner market: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/special-bets/market/1.243751273

Poor year, left with a compromise crap winner than seemed to be written by ai based on what won last year. Mind, i also hated the novelty crap. And israel was the worst of the lot

I had a pre jury bet on the swiss that did well, but was never going to return much. The public were absolute wnkers this time lol

Well done anyone dragging a profit out of that mess

IMHO

Israel had some dodgy rigging on the public vote no question but they were probably under voted on the Jury vote as the song was the usual soulless/boring rubbish that passes for music these days but was far from the worst and she sung it ok. Deserved a top 10 on Jury vote given the quality was awful over all. Laughable some people thought they wouldn't be allowed to enter given the main sponsors are an Israeli company.

The UKs entry was awful and was sung even worse. It perfectly summed up modern pop music. Utter trash sung by tramps.

The contest over the last 25 years has gradually gotten worse and worse going from an entertaining simple song contest to a political PR friendly vote when the public vote was allowed in to a over produced electronic Gay pride parade as it currently is. Do musical instruments exist anymore? Its just mass produced dirge.

Last night was some of the worse sounds ever foisted on human ears. Utter excrement.

BTW one last point whoever tunes up the mics/volumes/equipment at the contest needs serious investigation. Its laughable how obvious they are in poor setups for some countries versus others. Thats not recent either

Was the perfect set up for me, hot fav that was likely to struggle with the juries. Then it's about maximising the opportunity. As stated pre off, I was planning to get stuck into Estonia in all of the Top X markets after the jury reveal, but too much going on and unbelievably my machine decided to die on me toward the end of jury reveal. Lesson there, need a back up ready to go

Take out from the trading was how the heavy players would simply not give up on Sweden. By rights I should have been able to square off my lay to back for a more comfortable vote reveal in running, but they never reflected the true price until they were actually beaten. In fact they went in again to make them long odds on. Incredible. Some people much have done their absolute conkers.

EV is just nonsense throwaway tv 95% of viewers will already have forgotten about. Israel pv is easily explained, with the spread of voting across 20+ runners, it doesn't take a high percentage to top it. Norton was extremely unprofessional when Israel were actually threatening to win the OR for a while, he is a disgrace but hardly surprising on the endlessly anti-semitic bbc.

When I first heard KAJ at Melo I didn't particularly like the song, but after multiple listens, it became my favourite song. I think Sweden probably had a much lower televote % from those who were first time listeners.

The market acted like it knew the jury score. I wonder if a big player got access to it early. Before the first few songs there was money for Sweden and Austria, money against France and Finland and even more importantly, money on Estonia and against Albania in all the markets (the perfect play having seen them get nearly 100 points in the jury when it was expected they would get hardly any). They made ever move you would have, having seen the jury vote

May 18, 2025 -- 8:06AM, Cider wrote:

It's fair to say in my view that Estonia and Sweden were fishing in pretty much the same pond, and both likely to be nobbled by the juries. Yes a much more historically favoured RO for the fav, and a tad less 'novelty'.One was about 2.2 at the post, the other about 50.

A lot of 'experts' thought that Sweden would get around 200 in the jury vote and Estonia sub 50. Most thought Sweden would get at least 100 more in the jury and were heavy favourites in the televote market so it stood to reason that Estonia were pretty much destined to not have a chance. Of course their jury score put them in the game.

I didn't see anything that looked like informed money.

Maybe if you swapped the entries for Sweden and Estonia the prices at the off would have been a lot different. I was quite confident Estonia would beat Sweden on the televote, but that doesn't make you money. So I saw the best opportunity to capitalise on that aspect was Estonia in the Top X markets after the jury reveal was completed. I did get Est a little for T5, but nothing like I was planning beforehand. I won on every market I played in, 2 years running now so not at all complaining.

Europe's population is approaching 800 million, and there are, what, maybe 200-odd jurists? Do YOU feel each of those jurists is worth FOUR MILLION OF YOU??? That their views are FOUR MILLION TIMES 'BETTER' THAN YOURS??? That they are FOUR MILLION TIMES MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOU???

NO!!!!!!

PHUCK RIGHT OFF WITH SUCH PROPAGANDISED CONTROL OVER US!!!
PHUCK RIGHT OFF WITH SO-CALLED 'elites' (CHORTLE!!!) STEALING VICTORY FROM THE PEOPLE'S FAVOURITE, ISRAEL!!! AGAIN!!!!!!
PHUCK RIGHT OFF WITH JURIES!!!

As the greatest document ever written tells us;
'When it comes to ESC voting, ALL MEN ARE CREATED EQUAL!!!'

Thanks Tim, I needed a good laugh. All men are obv not "created equal". I believe in intelligent design but not the man made bible. You need to take your lithium and give up your fav shills

May 18, 2025 -- 1:42PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:

When I first heard KAJ at Melo I didn't particularly like the song, but after multiple listens, it became my favourite song. I think Sweden probably had a much lower televote % from those who were first time listeners.The market acted like it knew the jury score. I wonder if a big player got access to it early. Before the first few songs there was money for Sweden and Austria, money against France and Finland and even more importantly, money on Estonia and against Albania in all the markets (the perfect play having seen them get nearly 100 points in the jury when it was expected they would get hardly any). They made ever move you would have, having seen the jury vote

If the jury score was known wouldn't Austria have been backed down more and Swed laid more? They were flip flopping all the time. There was a bigger gap than expected between them and Austria was proving more popular than the market predicted. I don't really know, just suggesting an alternate theory.

20-odd years of betting on ESC, I don't recall suspicions of a JV leak being discussed, it's been clean. Mad price swings in prices is why we can all win at 'Specials', they are the very secret to success. So, Sweden going from 2.2(?) at the show's start, down to 1.6x, shouldn't cause any suspicion, it's what 'our' markets do. Except for the fact that there's normally a reason for the swings and, even if we aren't fully aware of events driving the movements at the time, it usually becomes more widely known (best example? Katie Price walking on IAC).

But there's no such explanation for last night, there was no new info, nothing had changed, voting was still open, etc, etc. Casuals? No, because they would tend to be 10 and 20 quidders, not supplying the thousands piling on to Sweden. They also tend not to bother backing 4/6 shots, they prefer a bit of a price.
Sweden hugely underperformed on TV expectations, driven by polls schmolls, so anyone with access to the JV results could quite reasonably have thought the TV would have been large enough to get them over the line, but not confident enough to drive the price down to 1.01

Verdict? A Hung Jury; they voted 8-4 'Just Specials markets doing their thing'

Israel, (The People's Champion), received 12pts from

ROTW
AUS
AZE
BEL
FRA
GER
LUX
NET
POR
SPA
SWE
SWI
UK

and 10pts from

CYP
CZE
FIN
IRE
NOR
SAN

That's 19 votes for Israel to win or come second, more than 50% of all votes, a ROMPING!!!


And their JV?

One 12, two 7s, one 6... and ZERO(!!!) from 22 countries!!!!!!

Gotta chortle at the brazenness of it all...

Those figures at the top ^^^, all those 12s and 10s, are for TV

Do they release no of votes per country.

Absolutelyb zero chance the public vote was not ****

Henry VIII

18 May 25 07:26
who was that escapee_

"Big Boned" gay bloke, Can't remember his name, so I've just googled the list of celeb BB winners and can't see his picture either.
I'm beginning to think my memory is faulty and it wasn't celeb BB because looking at the list of winners and contestants over the years, I recognise many of them and in this show he was the only person I knew of, the level of 'celebrity' in this show was lower than "Household name".

After typing this out, I've remembered that I'd had to ask his name on the thread about the show in this forum.

It's bugging me now, I've done 30 minutes of searching and can't find him. Are there any other shows in a similar format with C-Listers?

Racingqueen Joined: 02 Jul 11
Replies: 879418 May 25 18:09 
Do they release no of votes per country.

If you mean the breakdown of which countries TV gave 12 pts, 10pts, etc to which country, then;

https://eurovisionworld.com/eurovision/2025#scoreboard-public

Sorry, don't know about the number of individual voters in each country

Thx for looking Escapee. Normally sm following doesn't give any benefit on bb. David Potts?

Yeah, That's the guy, donno why I didn't recognise him initially.

So I recognised him from a documentary circa 2008-2010 about the then very new phenomena of making money from social media.
He was about 16-18, making big bucks setting up pop up shops for a day, charging £200 for a T shirt etc, he
would have a thousand of his followers queuing outside the shop by 9am and everything would sell out before 5pm.
I can't remember all the numbers but I think he was a millionaire from it. He certainly knew how to mobilise his social media followers back then so I thought he was a good bet.
I don't watch these BB type reality shows or know one celebrity from another. So when my bet didn't get matched I thought I dunno what I'm doing, cancel it.

2024 winner... lol I've been searching around 2018-2020

Searched the CBB24 thread and found the question I remember asking... and you were the one who answered it , Thanks

Escapee 04 Mar 24 21:50
what's the name of the last bloke?
(camp, likes his calories)

Henry VIII 04 Mar 24 21:51
i don't know him david potts but if he can keep up the really positive attitude....could win
unlikely though, could be moody and bitchy.

Albania doubled in the side markets very early on in the final. And the money came for Estonia. That certainly seemed to suggest jury knowledge. Austria were backed and France and Finland drifted (also the exact moves you would make with the jury score). And money was very solid for Sweden which makes sense as it was widely thought they would beat Austria in a televote by over 100+. Each to their own but the evidence is there I think.

The Albania doubling in the side markets alone before the end of the second song of the contest has got to ask you why? Let alone all the other moves which tally with jury knowledge

Wow, a lot more to David Potts than I knew.

AR I think you've got something if Albania drifted and Estonia shortened France was T3 with juries but drifted straight after she sang. I don't get France drifting from jury knowledge. She did well with juries - T3. IIRC she drifted after she sang.

CORRECTION....
AR I think you've got something if Albania drifted and Estonia shortened early on. I don't get France drifting from jury knowledge. She did well with juries - T3. IIRC she drifted after she sang.

If you take that view that the jury vote leaked then France had to win the jury vote comfortably to be able to win the OR. It was never likely to fly on the televote. But the price held up until she performed. I don't see how Sweden on 126 and 6th with juries screamed 'let's smash it at odds on', personally. Would be the opposite, as it panned out when the juries were revealed.

On the other hand, Austria on 258 and a big lead would encourage money. Which, again, happened when it was revealed.

If I knew the jury score I would have been backed Austria for a lot and had a saver on Sweden and Estonia and backed Estonia in the Top markets and opposed Albania which is exactly where the early money was (Austria heavily punted and Estonia, chunks in the 30s - over halving in price). Albania went from 3.5 to 6.0 in the Top 5 (which suddenly became a great lay with their horror jury score). Interestingly UK last place also was then really opposed with money for Iceland and San Marino (again tallying with the healthy jury score of UK and the 0s for the latter). Of course it might be nothing, but the movements were pretty odd and tally exactly with what you would do with that jury information if that was your inclination.

May 19, 2025 -- 1:48PM, Henry VIII wrote:

CORRECTION....AR I think you've got something if Albania drifted and Estonia shortened early on. I don't get France drifting from jury knowledge. She did well with juries - T3. IIRC she drifted after she sang.

54 ahead of Sweden and 78 behind Austria, meant she was dead in the water.

Off the jury scores, it was a straight race between Sweden, Austria and Estonia (in that order imho) but the value being wildly with Austria (where the money was) as it became a case of can they be within 132 tele points of Sweden (which seemed close to a coin flip).

I backed Austria 4.1 ish and laid Sweden close to odds on after seeing the semi. Sweden was a bit bigger at the post, and so was Austria. I believe some people thought Austria didn't have a great jury show. Estonia money can be explained by online momentum and social media noise after the semi. Can't speak on Albania as I didn't have them on my betting radar.

I did actually have a small bet on UK last place during the week, and laid it off during the show at shorter. There was some real howlers left in!

It doesn't mean there wasn't knowledge in the market, EV has often screamed that there is. But I didn't get that feel this year.

I think AR's right. Brilliant bit of detective work. The jury scores would have been collated over 20 hours before the Final but it seems like our insider only got them at the start of the Final.

I'm not getting this jury scored leaked thing.

Austria odds were slow to come in, didn't make favourites till 23:36 (looking back in this thread when I commented as such) and they soon (with in a minute or 2) dropped back to 2nd favourites again.
In my mind after the first 10 jury votes Sweden were getting very little scores and it was obvious they were in deep trouble, the market wasn't reacting much to this swedish calamity.

And then when the public votes were being announced, after isreal, estonia, poland and albania picked up huge chunks, it was obvious (IMHO) that sweden were not going to get 100 more than Austria.
I was a few sheets to the wind by then, but that's how I remember it.

The market got it wrong, and held on to it's belief way beyond the point it should have.
I didn't see any signs of leaks on Austria or Sweden, but I wasn't paying attention to Estonia or Albania.

Dunno if it's hit the press yet but there's accusations Israel used bot votes and complaints from 4 countries who have found them already

Partially reported by telegraph i see, but it looks more widespread and serious

Israeli bots, obviously, naturally.
Cambridge Analytica was 2016, This is 2025, look out the window, turn on the TV world news.
Elon's AI grok has been programmed to talk about white genocide in SA when asked a totally different question, of course there will be Isreali bots voting in ESC.

Don't moan about the playing field, observe it and bet accordingly or find another playing field to bet on.

I think people are entitled to moan about cheating. Old fashioned view perhaps

May 19, 2025 -- 9:22PM, Escapee wrote:

I'm not getting this jury scored leaked thing.Austria odds were slow to come in, didn't make favourites till 23:36 (looking back in this thread when I commented as such) and they soon (with in a minute or 2) dropped back to 2nd favourites again.In my mind after the first 10 jury votes Sweden were getting very little scores and it was obvious they were in deep trouble, the market wasn't reacting much to this swedish calamity.And then when the public votes were being announced, after isreal, estonia, poland and albania picked up huge chunks, it was obvious (IMHO) that sweden were not going to get 100 more than Austria. I was a few sheets to the wind by then, but that's how I remember it.The market got it wrong, and held on to it's belief way beyond the point it should have.I didn't see any signs of leaks on Austria or Sweden, but I wasn't paying attention to Estonia or Albania.

Austria were 4.5 into 3.9 pretty much straight away (with blocks of big money wanting on). If you knew they had a 128 surplus on Sweden going into the televote you would probably be 2.6 Austria 1.66 Sweden 41.0 Estonia, the rest were all but dead in the water given the jury results. Interestingly Albania pretty much doubled in the Top 5 market straight away, with strong support for Estonia, that reeks of jury knowledge imho (Albania were given a shockingly low score and Estonia given a score much higher than anticipated). How else do you explain these movements? Each to their own, but I find those moves very hard to explain, and the fact they tally telepathically with the jury score is illuminating.

I don't think the Israeli complaints come from a betting POV, we all know they are advertising and buying votes (though I was surprised they went full throttle again this year). It's putting the competition at risk, and as fans of the contest, I think we all want a fair fight!

Bear in mind there was great chunks on Estonia from 80+ into mid 30s at the same time as Albania drifting in the side markets and the money for Austria. Someone made some perfect moves that's for sure!

So the original market got Sweden badly wrong, and the insiders' analysis was even worse!

I think people are entitled to moan about cheating. Old fashioned view perhaps

Absolutely, and letting off steam is good for the soul.

"Don't moan about the playing field, observe it and bet accordingly" is a vignette from my unwritten tome: Reminiscences of a profitable gambler.

My fav E song without doubt.Nicole A little peace

Ein Bischen Frieden

Perhaps mine too, a beautiful little song

One of the earlier examples of the 'pimp spot' effect also that one.

The very first #Eurovision artist for 2026 has officially been revealed

Representing Cyprus will be ANTIGONI - who is a previous contestant of Love Island UK!

Ah I've been following her on IG for a while that's funny

Should be a new thread