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Chris McCausland is delightfully non PC, of course only someone like Chris can get away with this on prime time BBC in 2024.
But to state he has an USP with this is an understatement, he actually has multiple. Genuinely witty (laugh out loud witty). A positive giant up against the competition in this. A potential winner anyone can easily get behind, and the people he was dancing against in the final (should he get there) would be rooting for him.
A force quite close to being unstoppable imo, one that I don't see the mystical suits trying to stop anyway. And he can actually move. How, fook only knows, but he can. In hold dances should be fine. So there won't be much too challenging I'd have thought. al pacino tango anyone? And Dianne.
So quite difficult to see him either being voted out, or manipulated out. I feel like the biggest threat at this point is doing the competition itself wearing him down, he seemed to put it all in yesterday.
But to state he has an USP with this is an understatement, he actually has multiple. Genuinely witty (laugh out loud witty). A positive giant up against the competition in this. A potential winner anyone can easily get behind, and the people he was dancing against in the final (should he get there) would be rooting for him.
A force quite close to being unstoppable imo, one that I don't see the mystical suits trying to stop anyway. And he can actually move. How, fook only knows, but he can. In hold dances should be fine. So there won't be much too challenging I'd have thought. al pacino tango anyone? And Dianne.
So quite difficult to see him either being voted out, or manipulated out. I feel like the biggest threat at this point is doing the competition itself wearing him down, he seemed to put it all in yesterday.
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Probably will be all samey to help him through, but any disability in RV goes along way. Unless your pervy steve ofc
I watched that travel series he did, joke was fun for a while, soon became grating
No punting for me anyway but i like backing cripples so its a yes from me
Steve was just ahead of his time, being a unrepentant perv massively popular now
Chris could definitely get away with being a bit 'handsy'. I'd pretend to be blind myself around that love island girl
There might be a few squeamish viewers, but I don't see that being a particular issue. Nothing that being a scouser won't balance off.
The self deprecation thing would get tiresome on something like bb of old xf, but scd is small doses isn't it, and he definitely has something to be self deprecating about.
What's the opposition, someone who is a ringer, looks like a supermodel and knows it. I get the Amy feel good narrative but alone that's not enough, and JB also has a ringer feel, and he's not very humble with it.
The audience loves an obvious non ringer, pv shows love people who make them laugh. Let alone the obvious, a completely blind person, who has no dance experience being able to dance to a certain standard, and being able to do it with shedloads of charisma. We know how heavily scripted this is, we had panto villain judge being negative and all the judges avoiding stating the obvious (so far).
The self deprecation thing would get tiresome on something like bb of old xf, but scd is small doses isn't it, and he definitely has something to be self deprecating about.
What's the opposition, someone who is a ringer, looks like a supermodel and knows it. I get the Amy feel good narrative but alone that's not enough, and JB also has a ringer feel, and he's not very humble with it.
The audience loves an obvious non ringer, pv shows love people who make them laugh. Let alone the obvious, a completely blind person, who has no dance experience being able to dance to a certain standard, and being able to do it with shedloads of charisma. We know how heavily scripted this is, we had panto villain judge being negative and all the judges avoiding stating the obvious (so far).
Not much bigger than the current market price army. I'm not nearly as invested in scd as I used to be, bookies are now off limits for me so no pre series sleuthing or judging the ante post market. Just watched the first show to see if there were any opportunities.
Obviously the suits will want to try and shake off all the negativity that preceded this series. Chris is the obvious vehicle for that. I fail to see them stopping him personally, quite the opposite.
That's a shame no big prices but a winner is a winner, i agree with the small doses comment and he would make a feelgood winner after a bad year. I'd back him but any spare cash ive got coming in, will be for Luke at his current prices.
For me one had to know he was able to complete a full dance well enough. So yes, pay for that in the price as everyone else knows. But if he wasn't able to cope, it would just be burning cash. We also got to see the competition in full, which appears lacking to me. Usual story of ringers and the shafting capable runners like Ward. There's a lot of fodder to burn through.
I have at least watched it now. Can't say i was impressed tbh. I think this is personality punt and he's no bill bailey.
I wouldn't lay these prices, but not backing either
I wouldn't lay these prices, but not backing either
Bill was old but not blind. Amusing at times but not as funny as Chris. He will need better dances for sure but, this was the poisoned chalice CCC put away. One would expect him to be able to do technically better with the in hold stuff, for obvious reasons.
fair comment Cider, seems there was people falling over themselves when it appeared he could move and make people laugh. Being blind will give him leeway as well if he does slip up, meaning backing on the drift. Can't see much downside myself, lock for the final i suspect.
Sounds better than fig tbf, he was backing that pete wicks
i could see logic in that pre show as he's Sam's best mate from celeb innit
'alpha' caucasion males are persona non grata. I'd have thought Toyah was the typical Figgis project. Wicks is the type of runner they'll have hanging around for a bit, ultimately easily despatched at an opportune time.
Can you just make this a general scd thread, cos i can't be arsed to watch? :)
oh god ive just realised we got a month off brushy, does that mean were stuck in here talking dance 
I'm mostly occupied with kamala vs diaper man, maybe cider could help the trumpers on politics, they definitely need it!
I really can't stand scd these days. But I've probably done as well on it when not watching. In fact watching has been a negative at times
Its definitely something that don't need close attention, the narrative very quickly becomes apparent and so does the market. If the blind man fits the agenda we'll know within a few weeks and he'll be odds on.
My biggest win was abbey, and i only joined in cos she was 20+ before the semi. Hadn't watched any. Or at least level with louis where i suffered the whole series
scd was an effective money printer, like many things in the specials world, not what it once was. they have xf style scripting and clinical efficiency now, Craig muzzled et al. Hardly any opportunity to make money off side markets like scoring or elimination, esp ir. the show has been recently, painfully right on and virtually unwatchable since the first lockdown year. scoring complete fiction and predetermined to what the week's storyline demands. Doubt I'll be viewing each week, let alone getting involved. Specials betting was lucrative fun and now it's mostly a drag, aside from obviously xmas number 1 and EV now and then.
I still love Eurovision as an event and market each year.
Sadly besides that I'm fairly limited in much other specials - dabbling on SPOTY a bit this year.
I don't play strictly and IAC really anymore, as it is a lot of time layout for some smallish return. Lost most of interest in the latest BBs also for similar reasons, and very small markets.
At least Eurovision can pay quite well.
I'd still be drawn to any of the more music events if they ever really did well again (e.g. XF), but that may not happen enough for a decent market.
Sadly besides that I'm fairly limited in much other specials - dabbling on SPOTY a bit this year.
I don't play strictly and IAC really anymore, as it is a lot of time layout for some smallish return. Lost most of interest in the latest BBs also for similar reasons, and very small markets.
At least Eurovision can pay quite well.
I'd still be drawn to any of the more music events if they ever really did well again (e.g. XF), but that may not happen enough for a decent market.
edit: should say I still dabble in both IAC and BB with occasional bets - but don't follow the shows as much for inplay trading. As GB mentioned above, (although my stakes might have dropped slightly for those shows) I don't think it massively affected the level of results by not watching fully!
I think you basically had to watch bb if you wanted to trade, but would have done well just laying anyone short in 90% of series
It sounds cheesy enough but trading specials was fun, identifying ricks etc. And watching the shows had it's own version of fun, and of course plenty of online banter with other gamblers. I made a lot of money but it didn't feel like work & effort, which it would do now. So the one event that's still exciting to get stuck into is #1, and EV I like to start looking at it from the first live semi. Not the tedium of months of build up. spoty as I covered at length already is a magazine style show and vote now, nothing like the opportunities of a bygone era, would never get the 33-1 Giggs happening the way it is now for example. Again, heavily controlled by tptb. I get that people could still make work trading the events over the year, but it's not for me.
I agree on the added 'fun' element of specials as a draw - I actually love music so listening to a song contest is something I'd do even without betting on it.
The social shows (IAC and BB) were a little different in fun - analysing people and how they come across etc. Though it is less immediate as a fun event to follow, and yes, sometimes feels more a drag than 'fun'!
Not sure about others, but I've also found my social watching of shows has dried up - the missus, my brother etc, all people who used to love RTV such as BB, basically not really interested in it anymore - that makes a difference in motivation to watch this stuff too.
The social shows (IAC and BB) were a little different in fun - analysing people and how they come across etc. Though it is less immediate as a fun event to follow, and yes, sometimes feels more a drag than 'fun'!
Not sure about others, but I've also found my social watching of shows has dried up - the missus, my brother etc, all people who used to love RTV such as BB, basically not really interested in it anymore - that makes a difference in motivation to watch this stuff too.
Yeah, the painful betting is just a product of the slump in rtv popularity.
The mug punters no longer watching
The mug punters no longer watching
The glory days of backing that wagner and the scouse idiot in xf, then you could just about predict what astonishing price they would fall too before their doom was manipulated
You could set your watch by when the 'jedward are leading the vote' story came out
Jedward being elimination jolly for about 7 shows until Cowell finally liked them 
People smashing into Tesco Mary :p. Changing the rules mid show to dump her out when they knew they could.
It's all part of the general decline, lack of mug/casual cash, markets, pervasive desire for producers to exert full control over the outcomes. I still recall having £10K liability with Ladbrokes on specials. It was great whilst it lasted, and it lasted a very long time.
People smashing into Tesco Mary :p. Changing the rules mid show to dump her out when they knew they could.
It's all part of the general decline, lack of mug/casual cash, markets, pervasive desire for producers to exert full control over the outcomes. I still recall having £10K liability with Ladbrokes on specials. It was great whilst it lasted, and it lasted a very long time.
Other things that didn't help, fcking off the market makers with pc, bots that now jump in front of you instead, wanting £5 in front of your 10. Fck off man
Still a lot of "mug cash" around, and the potential for big wins. Sam at 8/1 and Nemo at 14/1 spring to mind.
The irony was in eurovision, the mug money triumphed over the 'wise guys' in 2022!. EV is still in the opportunity bracket, but for me that's in the final straight and points results in running, not the tedious build up hoping to be the first to see something. Whomever wins will always look to have been value at some point, retrospectively. IAC not so much, elimination markets obliterated and it's just not what it used to be.
Mug money? In what universe were ukraine gonna fail to win in 2022?
Especially putin and anyone working at his ammo dumps :)
Just a quick question - do others on here find that people they used to watch specials with (e.g. wives, family, friends etc) no longer bother watching it? And does that affect how you watch or don't anymore?
Or, did you always just watch it solo in terms of using it as a betting medium?
Or, did you always just watch it solo in terms of using it as a betting medium?
They all used to watch scd, nobody interested now. It took a lot longer to peak than xf, but i think it's firmly on the downslope now.
Can't remember anyone ever watching xf or bb with me. They all watch celeb still, due to ant and dec.
They tend to sit through eurovision now it's big again
Can't remember anyone ever watching xf or bb with me. They all watch celeb still, due to ant and dec.
They tend to sit through eurovision now it's big again
Can't remember anyone ever watching xf or bb with me.
So, guess those were always just a watch solo for betting purposes. I used to watch BB with the missus, and she loved it for many early series, but now says she's just not interested in sitting through days of coverage - which I get.
So, guess those were always just a watch solo for betting purposes. I used to watch BB with the missus, and she loved it for many early series, but now says she's just not interested in sitting through days of coverage - which I get.
Though I then find sitting watching BB on my own somewhat a drag too - without anyone to discuss it with!
Sep 26, 2024 -- 2:11AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:
They all used to watch scd, nobody interested now.
My older parents and their friends were saying this about SCD the other day. They actually tend to record/watch on iPlayer and skip through the fluff
It's so self celebratory, awful toss. It was fine when it was a load of non dancers learning to dance, loads of ringers now
I could watch that blonde girl all week, but she's actually been a dancer! Ffs lol
.https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2024/09/27/chris-mccauslands-strictly-diary-...
Pretty underwhelming reaction I thought. Dampens down enthusiasm somewhat. I'm certain the the show is far more scripted/prompted than it used to be, so these are no longer guaranteed to be genuine reactions. However it was a well done for taking part vibe, rather than he should win vibe. I have removed my exposure for the time being.
A dampening down and a drift is what the thread needs from a low starting point, a good start but continuous ramping from
the judges only see’s a dead market from the off. A runner like Chris clearly has that winning moment, several winning moments on his and the BBC’s journey. I’d say the latter needs him more over his certain career boost. Whichever way this goes over the next few weeks I think overall he is the only plan.
the judges only see’s a dead market from the off. A runner like Chris clearly has that winning moment, several winning moments on his and the BBC’s journey. I’d say the latter needs him more over his certain career boost. Whichever way this goes over the next few weeks I think overall he is the only plan.
It was dampened down, from a narrative perspective. Lowish scores and judges not giddy like the audience. The producers can't control everything and in my view it went better than they hoped, ie not expecting Chris to steal the show. However if you can take the boxers' reaction as somewhat genuine, he'll need to up his dancing game during the series. But I'll take 5/1 to 3/1 with nothing happening.
I thought he looked worse on googlebox than the first time i saw. Doesn't get better on closer inspection
Personally the technique was a plus, given the context. But what I think doesn't count. The next dance in hold will be more informative as he will need to be able to do well there, as that's his advantage. The brief footage of training looks pretty strong.
He doesn’t need to improve week on week, he just needs to finish the competition better than he started to win
Would appear the feel good win is well and truly factored into his price, he has to improve to win
Natural progression is a given as they identify techniques to work around his disability. He's been saying he could not hear what Dianne was saying or where she was due to the audience noise. The prods asked him if he wanted to have the audience silenced but he didn't want special treatment.
He’s shrewd, the harder it is for him the more sympathetic the audience/judges are. Quitening them down and making a rick makes him look a doughnut
Sep 28, 2024 -- 5:50AM, Cider wrote:
Natural progression is a given as they identify techniques to work around his disability. He's been saying he could not hear what Dianne was saying or where she was due to the audience noise. The prods asked him if he wanted to have the audience silenced but he didn't want special treatment.
If that involves shooting the audience I'm all for it
sorry for the typo in the OP, should have been the blind leading the bland!
just a procession from here, odds on next week and beyond innit. 20+ backers i applaud taking the early gamble on the disadvantaged one
Toyah in the true coffin slot, middling comments without without enough of a savaging to get sympathy, a low score and then memory holed with Chris straight after.
Very hard to get out of the trap set.
Very hard to get out of the trap set.
Yet another home run from Chris & Di, these two are relentless.
People had an emotional reaction to JB and Amy initially, a few weeks later that has disappeared, Chris has had a great reaction so far but he isn't very good, for me considering the price i would not back him.
All down to Amy, which was always going fizzle out. JB himself offers little. There's not much juice in the Chris price now with nearly 2 months left. They keep knocking out memorable dances, however. Overdue a quiet week or two.
decent elimination set up for once. punam has showed some pv robustness, all the ties give her a shot of getting out. had a couple of bites on outsiders, Shayne numero uno. Out of the most vulnerable, he's the least favoured in my view, and he'd be booted given the chance.
unless Amy wants out, something not quite right with that pairing
A last theoretical hurdle today. Obviously it can be manipulated to have Chris in the d/o tonight even if he vote tops. I cannot actually see the bbc risking that tbh. Why would they even want to, touring or not.
Expected result, Tasha beats Pete in the D/O. Lou fuming more than usual this year.
A prescient OP, even if I do say so myself Well done to anyone who studied the form and got on before the first dances. Even after the first dance, the prices were a gift.
I really don't know how Chris coped with it all, the pressure, emotional and physical energy expended, I expect he will sleep for a week. He managed to unify Telegraph and guardian readers, some feat. Whilst not once playing the sob story card. Fantastic, doubt it will ever be topped. Any future runners with an obstacle or disability will have Chris' bar to reach, and it's a pretty high one.
Well done to anyone who studied the form and got on before the first dances. Even after the first dance, the prices were a gift.I really don't know how Chris coped with it all, the pressure, emotional and physical energy expended, I expect he will sleep for a week. He managed to unify Telegraph and guardian readers, some feat. Whilst not once playing the sob story card. Fantastic, doubt it will ever be topped. Any future runners with an obstacle or disability will have Chris' bar to reach, and it's a pretty high one.
Most deserved winner ever and yet worst dancer ever.
And easily tipped up leaving starting stalls with umpteen
laps to go.
Well done winners
GB public far too predictable for this!
And easily tipped up leaving starting stalls with umpteen
laps to go.
Well done winners
GB public far too predictable for this!
. Was 5-1 when I posted, not even fav.
Being an accomplished dancer by itself means nothing, apart from the capability of winning dance offs and staying on the show. Tasha was the most accomplished dancer this year, and most likely came last in the last three pvs. Chris achieved a landslide as he won the heart of a nation, which looked on the cards from the very first 30 seconds of his cha cha cha.
Social media is very harsh on accomplished dancers
and show is in danger of being a parody of
what it intended, but they are as much to blame
for that at bbc as the accomplished dancers
I'm still awaiting my ringer to get the call...
and show is in danger of being a parody of
what it intended, but they are as much to blame
for that at bbc as the accomplished dancers
I'm still awaiting my ringer to get the call...
They have to have ringers to make the show watchable. They are invariably unlikely winners. Chris has undoubtedly put life back into the brand, but there's still lot wrong with it. The transparent manipulation and need to exert control of the weekly outcomes, and the apparent desperation the make the judges central to the whole show are at least two of them. I'm not a scd nut though and wouldn't care if it stopped next year.
'invariably unlikely winners'
Fair few have traded odds on though
Fair few have traded odds on though
I thought they would struggle to better the deaf lass
but pulled out a blind man.
What can they do now?
A straightforward dancing competition...
.... Deploy the ringer...
but pulled out a blind man.
What can they do now?
A straightforward dancing competition...
.... Deploy the ringer...
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