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armagnac
13 Mar 24 12:21
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Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 63,883 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
Nikita 12/1 (nap)

Coming off the back of a strictly final watched by nearly 9 million and winning the live tour shows, fresh in the mind of voters.
Gone back through all the silly polls on the app, plus DS, TM and TIBB polls, for someone who has been largely left on the edit mans floor his polling has been outstanding, especially the app ones. Seems a very popular boy, good proof a portion of the SCD audience is watching. Backed up by rating of 3.2 million for the launch show.

He's obviously doing something right in the house, not to have been nommed and for sharon to pick him last night.
literally ticks every box and is by far the most talented in the house, not totally sure how entertaining he is yet but hopefully that will come as more of the edit becomes available. As of now that is the only box not ticked !!

Decent back story, rising to the top being diagnosed type 1 and where he has come from, drove to poland to pick up his gran as she fled Ukraine. Pretty sure he still has family stuck there, to ill to escape the conflict.
surely the story will get told at some point.

12/1 seems crazy to me, top 3 contender all day and twice on sundays. My guess is he steals the nations hearts as numbers thin and he's shown a lot more.
Comes across a real lovely lad any parent would be proud of.

Bradley 6/1 (nb)

I guess normally a nb is a bigger price but Brad was gonna be my only bet before i became aware of Nik's insane price. So its more of a forced pick coz i'd feel sick if he won lol.
Obviously vulnerable and has the autistic card which got Sam the win, glimpses that Brad is just as immature as Sam to a far lower level.
As with Nikita i feel Bradley will shine going into the 2nd half of the series, he's best mates with Jordan and Henry which can only be a massive positive with the hardcore audience.

Seems to have played his cards early but looks like one who will play them more than once, almost certain with tears in the DR at some point.
Will have had a massive heads up on how to play the game and win from two perspectives.
hard to ignore at 6/1 and far better value than 1 trick pony colson imo
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Report armagnac March 14, 2024 11:18 AM GMT
Colson 10/3 (cover bet)

No surprise to see the crash this morning, David's act is looking very tired and samey. Im fully prepared to take him on, the other 3 lads offer far more on the run to the line.
I bit the hand of vic this morning, seems like his compiler is asleep at the wheel !
Is Colson fragile/vulnerable ? or playing the game as now seems to happen every single series of BB/IAC, don't think it matters do you ? the only thing that is certain, is the public will lap this up. He's creating his own narrative that is out of the control of the producers, i can't suddenly see him snap out of it and knowing the twists and turns you always get with big brother. Colson will have many opportunities to create sympathy towards himself, no doubt the face to face noms handed this to him on a silver tray.....if so, which we will find out tonight, would have given him decent momentum the last 2 days.

If only i'd of waited 1 more edit, probably would of gambled and gone all in, not bothered with other two. about right for my luck lately !
anyway i think Colson is a worthy fav and enough of the public will feed into his act, after watching the 1st week i was expecting this routine from Bradley...maybe he still will but Colson has stole his thunder big time lol. Two attention seeking cry babies, dear me...probably not now.

So i need confident, strong willed Nikita to step up and stop a very boring actor from winning....im certain he has the gears to run it close but will he bother is the big question ?

You decide ?
Report GeorgeBrush March 14, 2024 12:51 PM GMT
Look more FINNISH
Report armagnac March 14, 2024 12:58 PM GMT
says the man who has dave and fern green Crazy
Report armagnac March 14, 2024 3:12 PM GMT
The three youngest lads seem to have bonded very strongly, dave little bit older at 30 is part of the group but the younger ones appear closer. Also dave being not as likeable, and being loud/annoying. its dave who is gonna get picked off once the double eviction has been done and were onto probably another double on tuesday. he will make a very easy target for whoever is left from the older lot.

i just don't see any value in any dave green or his current price.
don't rate his chances in any final line up, if he gets there...he's gotta beat a sympathy vote pob will get and the good looking gay/mother vote the other two will get.

dave is fishing with a rod, the others all have nets is the bottom line !!!!
Report armagnac March 15, 2024 11:00 AM GMT
Louie 33/1 25/1 22/1 20/1

Sold half my Bradley investment, think he struggles to get past both Colson and Nikita without something big happening for him.

Re-invested into Louie who is the 'show' i think ive talked myself into this last night, he's part panto villain, part rude nasty man...if he can tone down the nasty side going forward i think he has a great chance of winning.
What i really like about this bet is, he's up against nothing, literally nothing but default winners. He's hilarious, a cross of alf garnett and victor meldrew.
Can easily see him topping tuesdays vote as well

I think a major consideration to take into Louie's fanbase is xfactor started in 2004 watched by all ages ofc but an age bracket from 7 to say 25. those fans will now range from 27 to 45 who watched him week in week out for years. thats just the core, he will have many fans even younger and loads more older.

One thing is certain, Louie is gonna dominate the airtime on the run in..one way or another it will be the Louie 'show'
Report armagnac March 17, 2024 2:05 PM GMT
Zeze 35/1 33/1

As she's the only other runner being honest in there and not afraid to speak her mind, appearing to cross swords with Louie tonight, i think a back at these odds is a no brainer. If Louie gets overly nasty on the run in, Zeze appears the only runner that could cut through the field like a hot knife through butter !!

Shame no Top Female market i can see

That being said Fern has been just as open and honest i guess but her comments have been quite personnel at times.
33/1 just seems fat, even if its a trade...she's in the thick of this task so worth a go
Report armagnac March 17, 2024 2:15 PM GMT
She could i guess do what Trish couldn't and go close, slight comparisons if she were to take down Louie like trish did with that gobby clown.
Only potential story line on the horizon, unless this task stirs things up amongst the rest which its clearly trying to do. with Fern finding out Nik has voted her 3 times but he'll beg and cry probably for forgiveness
Report armagnac March 18, 2024 10:04 AM GMT
Zeze really didn't embrace the starring panto role she was given, complete opposite the moody cow, some attitude she has. as such she lost any chance of making a run you'd feel. oh well had to be done just in case, luckily King Louie fully embraced it and even luckier for me there was no top female market to lose more on.
fern with her difficult decision a lock now and a finishing position of 3rd me thinks
Report Henry VIII March 18, 2024 11:05 AM GMT
ok so it was you giving us all those zeze lays in the 20s Wink
Report armagnac March 18, 2024 11:23 AM GMT
my only lay of Zeze is 3.80 at 55 H, having put 89 on. at the time i thought she had the potential to show Louie up and make a run but she is way to serious and way to moody. she has a chip on her shoulder for sure
i'll take that one on the chin, seeing Louie have his best show eased the pain.
Report Henry VIII March 18, 2024 11:35 AM GMT
thx then if it was u that caused the excitement in her (but i maybe giving too much influence to this forum.)

she wasn't a nightmare, just a bit simple in her arguing. the irony is that with the women who are actually somewhat crazy it's that problem of theirs that gets them onto all these shows and gives them their lucrative career.

do you remember the epic meltdowns of megan mckenna or kim woodburn?
Report armagnac March 18, 2024 12:21 PM GMT
omfg i just watched them back lol, quality..im gonna start an official big brother meltdown thread Laugh

Back on topic, i guess others seen what i did and guessed she could of made that role work and probably some followed me into the hole...especially ones that had a big Louie green to protect, as that task could of worked against him and been good for Zeze. Im happy with the end result as said, Louie looks like coasting to victory. Zeze's attitude would of still made it hard for her to carry forward any momentum she could of got.
Report Lifter March 18, 2024 9:18 PM GMT
Damn, just caught up with this show Laugh Backed Louie from 20s to 30s at the start of the show, but layed as it looked like a no hope. Didn't get matched on most of it, so feels like I won haha
Report armagnac March 19, 2024 10:55 AM GMT
for my own reference if i come back here at some point to read what happened.

layed nik 3.10
layed louie 3.00

backed fern 12/1
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