Xmas No1 market

Return of the ginge, lol

formal release date for ba 40 today outside of video/streaming. Stormed up to #3 on iTunes.

Quite interesting that Xmas is behind where it was around same time last year so far, on spotify anyway. Aside from when it snowed briefly. This is quite a critical weekend in my view. They really want to be reaching the top on spotify by then. The chart week that counts is also less favourable as it misses the last week of Xmas.

Gracie Abrams actually had quite a good spotify yesterday, number 1 overall last week with just under 50k sales. I've turned her green anyway.

weekend before Xmas

Xmas spoty Saturday 30.11

Wham 723k
Mariah 660k
Brenda 614k
_
BA 261k

Looking quite possible, likely even that the Xmas specialist totals will be under 2023. I'd like to see the first Dec Saturday spoty to be sure.

One element of chart chicanery confirmed, sales of all band aid versions combined. So the one listed on bfex isn't a runner.

Band Aid’s Do They Know It’s Christmas leads the race for Number 1 following the release of its 2024 Ultimate Mix.

Released to mark Band Aid’s 40th anniversary, the new version was produced by Trevor Horn and features vocalists from the 1984 original, 2004’s Band Aid 20, and 2014’s Band Aid 30. All three versions have topped the Official Singles Chart, as did 1989’s Band Aid II.

Artists who prominently feature on the track include the likes of George Michael, Chris Martin, Ed Sheeran, Sam Smith, Dido, One Direction, Rita Ora, Sinead O’Connor, and of course Bono, who contributed to all three previous incarnations that contribute to the Ultimate Mix.

Do They Know It’s Christmas’ surge for Number 1 follows its release on physical formats this past Friday (November 29th), with proceeds benefitting The Band Aid Trust. The CD and vinyl variants also feature the original, 20th and 30th anniversary editions, and 1985’s Live Aid version from Wembley Stadium.

Just 1,000 chart units behind and looking to earn a fifth straight week at Number 1 is Gracie Abrams with That’s So True (2), followed closely by ROSÉ and Bruno Mars with APT (3).

In addition to Band Aid, as December gets underway three more festive favourites make the First Look Top 10. WHAM!’s Last Christmas may make its first Top 5 appearance of 2024 at Number 5, Mariah Carey’s All I Want For Christmas Is You climbs three places over the weekend to Number 7, and Brenda Lee’s Rockin’ Around The Christmas Tree leaps eleven places to Number 9 midweek.


'first look'

1
DO THEY KNOW IT'S CHRISTMAS
BAND AID

2
THAT'S SO TRUE
GRACIE ABRAMS

3
APT
ROSE & BRUNO MARS

4
SAILOR SONG
GIGI PEREZ

5
LAST CHRISTMAS
WHAM!

Latest update

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas, with WHAM!'s Last Christmas mounting a major challenge for this week's Number 1.

In today's update, George and Andrew are less than 1,400 chart units behind the frontrunner, That's So True by Gracie Abrams, which has just racked up a full month at Number 1.

Another seasonal staple, Band Aid's Do They Know It's Christmas, is right behind at Number 3 having led yesterday's update with the release of its 2024 mix.

Released to mark Band Aid’s 40th anniversary, the new Ultimate Mix of the iconic charity single was produced by Trevor Horn. It features vocalists from the 1984 original, 2004’s Band Aid 20, and 2014’s Band Aid 30. All three versions have topped the Official Singles Chart, as did 1989’s Band Aid II.

big spoty update for Sunday

W 1.129 M
M 948 k
_
BA 377k

That makes Wham number 1 this week imo. Quite a difference ticking over into December makes.

Monday sales update specifics

Gracie 1 15184
W 13825
BA 13673 (5979 physical)
ROSÉ & Bruno Mars 13,111
M 11927

Wed update

Gracie 28151
W 27570
ROSÉ & Bruno Mars 23784
M 23380
_
6 BA

Close for #1 this week, now looks likely Gracie will hang on.

final w/e 05.12

1 48176 Gracie
2 42921 Wham
3 39574 ROSÉ & Bruno Mars
5 36274 Mariah
6 31258 Brenda
8 28289 BA

https://x.com/Reverend_Makers/status/1865068073515970579?s=19

..

old story, but appears to confirm that it's unlikely lb will be trying their shilling again this year.

.https://www.ladbible.com/entertainment/music/ladbaby-why-christmas-songs-stopped-157828-20241104

1st look, amazon doing its thang again . Why they persist on formalising this broken chart with a broadcast rundown, lord knows.

1 Mariah Carey (30th anni physicals)
2 Tom Grennan (amazon exclusive)
3 Wham
4 Gracie
5 ROSÉ & Bruno Mars
6 Brenda
7 Laufey (amazon exclusive)

Just 300 between the t3 (and a shedload of missing data!).

Maria Carey 30th vinyl is sensationally good, buy one with your winnings!

this market has the capacity to throw out a few curveballs, at this point it looks like unknown unknowns and whatever amazon decides to do with their numbers. though Mariah's physicals released a week too early, and TG's a week too late suggests neither party is playing for the xmas week 'win'.

W 18809
M 18444
Tom Grennan 16427
Gracie 14006

Same point last year

Wham 19357
MC 17500
Pog 16505

No info on what the missing data was, either year. Probably quite similar.

#1 on iTunes

Freezing This Christmas - Sir Starmer and the Granny Harmers

Is it the ****s?

Quunts

Doubt it as this once has been on general release since Dec 4th. Guessing it has been reported somewhere, creating a spike in downloads.

.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQrvmY5s2mo

No swearing on this either

Help us spread the message and share the video with everyone you can!

Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe. Thank you all for your support!

This is a parody song based on Lonely This Christmas by Mud - my favourite Christmas song.

Freezing This Christmas now out on all streaming platforms!

Up to 4,000 pensioners will die this winter. This is the single biggest attack on pensioners in a generation.

These are not my words, these are the words of the Labour Party in a report published in 2017 that discusses what will happen if the government cuts the Winter Fuel Allowance for those not on benefits.

Despite this, Keir Starmer and the Labour Party have decided to cut the Winter Fuel Allowance, meaning more than 9 million pensioners will lose out on payment, and only those on Pension Credit will now be able to claim it.

That means any pensioner who earns more than £11,343.80 a year may now have to choose between heating and eating.

Indeed, more than 40,000 pensioners who are terminally ill will lose the winter fuel payment according to the Telegraph, and the Winter Fuel Payment cut will put 50,000 pensioners into poverty next year according to the BBC.

An analysis by Policy in Practice suggests about 130,000 people will miss out on the Winter Fuel Payment because they are just £500 a year or less over the threshold.

We believe that not a single person in the UK in 2024 should die because of the cold.

We are calling on the government to raise the threshold for receiving the Winter Fuel Payment to at least £20,000 a year. Pensioners have worked and contributed to the system their entire lives, it is only right that we look after them and allow them to live their final years in peace and with dignity.

Join us in demanding better for our pensioners. Share Freezing This Christmas and help spread the message.

Probably doesn't get very far, but if it catches the zeitgeist similar to the election petition, maybe the market starts to consider it. Not seen it even listed in any market as yet, however.

I think I'd rather freeze to death than listen to that

Massive Push on Twitter  For Starmers Xmas Tune

Muds Lonely this Christmas Parody

What happens if its Number 1 and not in the Market ?

Skinner for the layers. Plenty of time to get it added, but it's very hard work. Took me four days to get them to add Rose & Bruno, by them time they did it their chances had gone lol.

1 W 28470
2 M 27064
3 Gracie 24797
4 ROSE & Bruno Mars 22058
5 Brenda 20360
6 Tom Grennan

2023

W 30090
M 27380

Squeaky bum time for wham backers

Wham has their 40th anni physicals added on Friday, Mariah got her 30th anni physicals added this week. Obviously she'll still sell some next week, but the bulk have shipped. Quite difficult to see anything already charting making a significant challenge.

People releasing Friday I'm aware of

Mason Whittle
Betty Boo
Leigh Francis
Gok Wan feat House Gospel Choir

Nothing much on New Music Friday to get excited about in my opinion. That goes for every Friday of course, but this one in particular.

Week before Xmas, final

1 46188 W
2 44826 Gracie
3 43007 M (1434 physical 40874 streaming)
4 38502 ROSE & Bruno
5 33237 Brenda
6 32042 Tom Grennan

Courtesy of Alexa, Tom Grennan is actually ahead of where Sam was at the same point in 2023, and overall Wham are slightly down. Wham also had a physical release in 2023, which one would expects softens sales for their 2024 40th anni drop somewhat, however Sam had a physical release whereas Tom's physical does not drop until next week's chart. The OCC are also pretty keen on making things sound as competitive as possible, so it's very likely to be close again on 1st look tomorrow, quite possibly Tom edging the lead. Will the market make the same mistake as 2023...

Tom is not shifting much in the way of downloads at all (not even #1 on amazon), and doesn't have the public profile of Sam Ryder. But still scope for some fun along the way.

Friday's spoty was comparatively soft for Wham, Tom is in 3rd on amazon streaming. Wham's physicals are looking possibly lower than 2023. It will be very close tomorrow, my gut is that they might put Tom in front on the first public drop of data. How the market reacts to that, no clue.

Grennan up to 2 on the Alexa chart.

Tom Grennan’s all-new Amazon Original It Can’t Be Christmas is battling for this week’s coveted Official UK Christmas Number 1 single, and he’s permanently marked his dedication to the campaign… with a tattoo!

Sharing a video on social media, Tom showed footage of him getting ‘Christmas no.1 2024 is…’ tattooed on his right thigh. Now that’s commitment to the cause.

“I thought I’d make it interesting,” Tom says in a video he shared to his Instagram. “I’m going to get ‘Christmas no.1 2024 is…’ and I’m gonna let you lot decide what goes on my leg. It’s up to you. Stream it, buy the vinyl. We’ll see what happens. You lot, do not let this flop.”

The footage of Tom getting the tattoo done is soundtracked by It Can’t Be Christmas’ lyrics “Have I gone stupid? Maybe. Have I gone mad? Someone save me.” The Christmas Number 1 reveal on Friday will be the judge!

Erm, well. Interesting for a few reasons, amongst them being that the vinyl in on presale and at this point, won't count

Given amazon had the sam ryder experience last year how do they not know how it works?

Seems like they originally planned to get to #1 the following week, but nobody told Tom (or his tattooist!)

Maybe he's misunderstood the update today like Sam, and thinks he's actually in front (or very close). And radio 1 have asked him to come on the show. tbf, only gamblers and music geeks will be aware of the minutia of how these things are compiled, and the inadequacy of first look due to the missing data.

Last Christmas by WHAM! takes an early lead for the UK’s Official Christmas Number 1 2024, but numbers indicate we could be in for an intense battle.

48 hours into the race, it’s tight at the top between George Michael and Andrew Ridgeley’s festive favourite Last Christmas and Tom Grennan’s all-new Amazon Original It Can’t Be Christmas, with Mariah Carey’s All I Want For Christmas Is You snapping at both of their heels.

WHAM!’s Christmas Number 1 campaign starts off strong thanks to the release of three limited edition 40th anniversary vinyl singles – including a collectible zoetrope vinyl. With Last Christmas leading the biggest chart race of the year by less than 3,000 units, these formats are proving to be the difference maker on the Official Chart: First Look right now.

Here's the Monday update from 2023, for comparison. Today's should come in the next hour

W 23590
Sam 21865
M 18415

Sam?.

Let's do the time warp yeah

Oh, 2023, specsavers needed

Just the Alexa runner, as a benchmark

Wham 23834
Tom 17663
Mariah 16771

Gracie Abrams @ 14899 could be challenging for 2nd by the final chart, as her spoty is strong. Should take Tom at least.

This morning, Mariah Carey has overtaken Tom Grennan in the race for Christmas Number 1, Official Charts can confirm.

As the biggest chart race of the year rages on, the self-styled Queen of Christmas has made a stunning coup, shuffling up to Number 2 midweek with her modern festive classic (and former UK Number 1 single) All I Want For Christmas Is You.

This means Mariah is now in pole position to challenge the mighty WHAM! - who still remain the act to beat, with Last Christmas still in lead to take the UK's Official Christmas Number 1 single for the second year in a row.

Mariah does trail WHAM! at the moment, but this is a big anniversary year for Mimi. All I Want For Christmas Is You and its parent album, Merry Christmas, celebrate their 30th anniversary this year (!), which also means that it's now 30 years since All I Want For Christmas Is You was originally denied Christmas Number 1 in 1994 by East 17 and Stay Another Day.

Three decades later...could Mariah be getting the last laugh? Given that the festive original only reached Number 1 in the UK for the first time in 2020, Mariah has really played the long game in order to enter the definitive Christmas canon, and it has never been wise to count her out.

As for Tom - he's still riding high with his Amazon Original, the soulful It Can't Be Christmas, and standing strong in the Top 3. Despite Mariah overtaking him this morning - little over 200 chart units still separate the two, so it's still very possible that he can make lost ground back up over the next few days.

Gracie Abrams has made a return as a main player in the race for Christmas Number 1 this week.

Her former UK Number 1 single That's So True (which previously topped the Official Singles Chart for five weeks before being dethroned by WHAM!'s Last Christmas last Friday) has just leaped over Mariah Carey and Tom Grennan to reclaim its place at Number 2 on our latest Christmas Number 1 update.

At the start of the week, Gracie had been languishing further down the Top 5, but a midweek boost has now seen her surge past both Mariah's All I Want For Christmas Is You (3) and Tom Grennan's Amazon Original It Can't Be Christmas (4) - although the gap separating the three songs from each other is still incredibly tight, with just 1,700 copies standing between Grennan and the second spot in the race.

That being said, Gracie still trails behind WHAM! - still in the lead with their festive classic Last Christmas, still in the prime position to claim the UK's Christmas Number 1 single for the second time in its 40 year history.

A PARODY song lampooning Keir Starmer’s Labour Government for its cuts to the Winter Fuel Payment has hit number one in the UK charts.  ?

What charts are they referring to ?

iTunes

they Number 1 in more than Itunes Cider   , I dont understand how the song will not be nymber 1 for Xmas ,Is it downloads that that count or what Am I missing ?

It's quite complicated to explain, but the official singles chart is made up of a mixture of video and audio streaming, digital downloads and physical releases. Digital and physical count the most.
It has streamed 1.1M+ since it was released on you tube 1st Dec

Pc abolished for less than 25k

Per annum

...calculated on 52 'active' weeks - "An Active Week will be considered as any week where you have at least one settled bet in a market that fully settles in that week."

Interpret that for me jim

I've had to drop a little profit covering this thing, it's still a huge mountain to climb to go from near zero to 25K+ daily. Near impossible in 2024, I'd say. However, I am obviously forever haunted by ladbaby year 1 when ava max looked home and hosed, and due to greed only came away with about 500 profit. The Telegraph story online has 1600+ comments since last evening, and the Labour gvnt upset even more people yesterday (is there anyone left?).

Most likely, lots of people viewing the yt video (as they have been over the last couple of weeks). But not significant downloading, or audio streams. It's never registered on spoty

yt was 1 million last night, so circa plus 124K today.

Spaffer song bj is a f c got pretty high, as did the follow up
Bj isafc

No reason Starmer song shouldn't chart quite high.

No 5 in 2020?

It was number 85 after 3 days. Only this waspi thing has given it a bit of new oxygen, otherwise it wouldn't have charted. One difference I mentioned before, this one was released so lots of sales didn't count for the important chart. And cuunnts did multiple versions.

01 W 39294
02 Gracie 29325
03 M 28551
04 Tom 27554
05 Brenda 23887

I've already done it, anyone who has an interest in this market, please @BetfairCS and request they add SIR STARMER & GRANNY HARMERS to the market. Ta.

I don't know where it lands, no kworb for iTunes of course :(. There's a fair chance it has had decent cut through due to the waspi let down, and will chart somewhere on Friday in the chart rundown. Quite clever to use the angle about the BBC refusing to play it, that has enjoyed some traction.

Keir was asked about the Starmer harmer track at PMQs yesterday. Didn't answer the question, obviously!

Apprx 300K yt streams, which would put it at #1 on yt for UK yesterday.

fwiw ordinarily, streaming for the last day has to be estimated, due to late data. yt can often be two days late. Most yt streams are 1:600 though, so not hugely significant unless it's really close.

There must be some political block in place as I can’t even see Starmer song on odds checker, it is potentially 2nd place that’s why there is a huge gap in the odds on BF, if it somehow wins there will be a backlash as not even being able to back it aside from laying is quite sketchy

Virtually impossible to gauge accurately, but from what I can recall, last year Wham were almost no offers at this point. Some cash appeared for them today since the figures became available for those who have access to the daily data, so they most likely still have had a big lead with a day to go. You'd really need to know what Starmer did yesterday to get a proper handle on if the mainstream coverage has translated into significant downloads.

A few indications I've been monitoring in addition to yt, the Just Giving page has gone up from circa 1000 to 1500 donators in the last few days. And the original Mud song has climbed up spotify a few dozen places. The Starmer version still not registered in the t200.

Quite annoying that bf have ignored the requests to list it. More or less it's the inverse to Wham at this point, trading 8-10 would be my estimate.

I've taken the prudent option, unusually for me! Though my instinct is still that it has too much to do, the insurance is worth it. I was planning to insure anyway, but waspi letdown meant the price went up lol

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds
Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Wham
1.17
£1,668.03
£277.31

Plus the daily OCC article is pretty much accepting a fait accompli. I can't be amazingly confident they'd want to be seen adding to the Starmer hype, but would have to if it was really on. It appears the market will be left open tomorrow, when the result becomes known but embargoed.

I doubt the Johnson tracks got the credit they actually accrued
and likely this suffers same lack of traction in
official views as folk watch copies or links not
attached to charts as social media influencers
link to their own accounts.

The chap who created it says he wasn't interested in Xmas #1, and only got involved in trying to chart high since it went viral. That was obvious and he didn't know how the charts are compiled, like most people. It's pretty good now, but the original primary link via yt went to Amazon streaming! And the significant opportunity for this type of entry is to have a presale dump on day 1 and get near the top on first look, where downloads have a massive advantage. Very much like ladbaby year one, falling into luck and the waspi thing has given it some life. But downloads are much more difficult to accumulate, most people are seemingly accessing it via yt which is now at nearly 1.5M. But 800K / 600 only = 1333, and pretty sure today's will only be estimated.

The bank of Xmas #1 pays out, and closes down for another year :)

Never in doubt, nice bonus for bookies laying no hopers
to the echo chamber boys.

Would be interesting to see how much they copped on band aid. Money for nothing. But very much encourages them to keep the market going.

There will be some calling for the OCC to shake up the rules again.

Sir Starmer and the Granny Harmers - Freezing This Christmas made the top 40! #37. They must have done more than Wham over the last couple of days.

Too many grifters not linking to official sites.

The charity was only at £12k yesterday which suggests it was being
mass shared but not getting proper linkage.

Bookies love these markets

Betfair don't like this because of mad world back in the day
and ensuing problem with names of artists on releases.

It was completely disorganised. But, taken at his word, he wasn't even trying (it showed). If he had got to #1 on first look, and BBC 'refused' to play it, could have won. As always looked likely, the crossover to mainstream came way too late. Cost me about £100 in the end, covering it. Even Amazon had hidden it away on their website, wasn't showing up on either of their singles or album chart. Took me a good few minutes to find it. But must have been selling more than what they listed as #1, tom grennan.

It's not his fault at all.

It's just that song got picked up and used without getting official recognition for plays.



Also, the chart seems to be very heavily influenced by smooth radio playlist.

Although, of course smooth radio playlist is heavily influenced by their research...

Bbc refused to play Johnson songs, it's obvious
bbc won't get involved, nor should they.

The anti Boris track was just swearing. Obviously couldn't have been played. The anti Starmer song has no swearing, no excuse. BBC are getting involved by not playing it.

I'm not saying he is at fault. It has been a resounding success, got the message out and the JG will likely get to £50K. I'm just coming at it from the cynical perspective of the Xmas #1. Had to have presales, had to have multiple versions, had to have direct links to downloads, had to chart high on first look, had to 'sell' downloads rather than streaming. Of course he couldn't have known that the waspie let down would happen in the chart week.

Lol, your echo chamber has cost you £100

Learn your lesson or keep losing because of it.

Just a prudent option to forgo a tiny amount of profit to guarantee a win. Nothing to do with the message of the track. In the cuunnts days we had kworb so I knew broadly where it was. In fact I could lay out out to red, with this there were only indirect clues.

It's a given that the bbc is in bed with Labour, them not playing the song or even discussing its message is no surprise at all. I don't care what the bbc does any more, so it's not a thing for me. But there are more weird elements like bf refusing to list it, and Amazon hiding it from their charts.

It's not prudent if it's no 37.

You put in a lot of good hard work.

Don't chuck it away

It was worth it to me. I have the opposite view anyway, before Wednesday it's outside of the t100. So it had a massive uplift in downloads in the last couple of days to get to 37. There's no accurate method to predict exactly what that uplift would be. Although I was pretty sure it wouldn't have been enough. You won't be aware of the full sorry story but I had an astronomical green on ava max and nearly lost the lot due to being greedy. I had been smashing a runner 20+ who went long odds on, and I didn't bank much of the gain at all, as I thought it was all over. One never stops learning with gambling, and I reconciled after that happened, not to allow myself to be affected by such hubris again.

01 59426 W
02 49574 Gracie
03 43790 M
04 39049 Tom
06 37317 Brenda
_

37 15860 Sir Starmer and the Granny Harmers - Freezing This Christmas

But you have just been affected by such hubris again.
Just other end of the boat.

Anyway, you've made plenty so well done... We all keep learning.

A bit like IAC, I'm playing people who have access to data that I don't. My view was that I had to cover Starmer before yesterday's figures became available to them. There's very little liquidity, and I'm a market maker. A what if scenario, what if Starmer had done enough to make it look possible. We'll just have to agree to disagree on this one, I'm very relaxed about my conservative approach.

Didn't impact the win obviously, but the Starmer track was wiped from the UK you tube chart. It would have been number 1 last week.

Looks like gavin and Stacey beat the king.

Biggest overnight for 5 years

I've never watched a single episode...

Yep, a comfortable win as expected. I would have had a chip away at 1.06 or whatever the market made it had one been offered, just in case more people opted for catch up. More interesting perhaps is the King was quite low, so hopefully bf will bother to put up a market for 2025.

Massive numbers for the chart week including Xmas itself

1 114290 W
2 94170 M
3 93702 Grennan
4 84407 Brenda

Gavin and Stacey heading for 20m views...