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Xmas No1 market

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Replies: 1,571
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 16 Dec 24 18:02
Oh, 2023, specsavers needed
By:
Cider
When: 16 Dec 24 18:14
Just the Alexa runner, as a benchmark
By:
Cider
When: 16 Dec 24 18:31
Wham 23834
Tom 17663
Mariah 16771
By:
Cider
When: 16 Dec 24 18:47
Gracie Abrams @ 14899 could be challenging for 2nd by the final chart, as her spoty is strong. Should take Tom at least.
By:
Cider
When: 17 Dec 24 13:10
This morning, Mariah Carey has overtaken Tom Grennan in the race for Christmas Number 1, Official Charts can confirm.

As the biggest chart race of the year rages on, the self-styled Queen of Christmas has made a stunning coup, shuffling up to Number 2 midweek with her modern festive classic (and former UK Number 1 single) All I Want For Christmas Is You.

This means Mariah is now in pole position to challenge the mighty WHAM! - who still remain the act to beat, with Last Christmas still in lead to take the UK's Official Christmas Number 1 single for the second year in a row.

Mariah does trail WHAM! at the moment, but this is a big anniversary year for Mimi. All I Want For Christmas Is You and its parent album, Merry Christmas, celebrate their 30th anniversary this year (!), which also means that it's now 30 years since All I Want For Christmas Is You was originally denied Christmas Number 1 in 1994 by East 17 and Stay Another Day.

Three decades later...could Mariah be getting the last laugh? Given that the festive original only reached Number 1 in the UK for the first time in 2020, Mariah has really played the long game in order to enter the definitive Christmas canon, and it has never been wise to count her out.

As for Tom - he's still riding high with his Amazon Original, the soulful It Can't Be Christmas, and standing strong in the Top 3. Despite Mariah overtaking him this morning - little over 200 chart units still separate the two, so it's still very possible that he can make lost ground back up over the next few days.
By:
Cider
When: 18 Dec 24 12:42
Gracie Abrams has made a return as a main player in the race for Christmas Number 1 this week.

Her former UK Number 1 single That's So True (which previously topped the Official Singles Chart for five weeks before being dethroned by WHAM!'s Last Christmas last Friday) has just leaped over Mariah Carey and Tom Grennan to reclaim its place at Number 2 on our latest Christmas Number 1 update.

At the start of the week, Gracie had been languishing further down the Top 5, but a midweek boost has now seen her surge past both Mariah's All I Want For Christmas Is You (3) and Tom Grennan's Amazon Original It Can't Be Christmas (4) - although the gap separating the three songs from each other is still incredibly tight, with just 1,700 copies standing between Grennan and the second spot in the race.

That being said, Gracie still trails behind WHAM! - still in the lead with their festive classic Last Christmas, still in the prime position to claim the UK's Christmas Number 1 single for the second time in its 40 year history.
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 18 Dec 24 13:38
A PARODY song lampooning Keir Starmer’s Labour Government for its cuts to the Winter Fuel Payment has hit number one in the UK charts.  ?
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 18 Dec 24 13:39
What charts are they referring to ?
By:
Cider
When: 18 Dec 24 13:43
iTunes
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 18 Dec 24 13:50
they Number 1 in more than Itunes Cider   , I dont understand how the song will not be nymber 1 for Xmas ,Is it downloads that that count or what Am I missing ?
By:
Cider
When: 18 Dec 24 14:07
It's quite complicated to explain, but the official singles chart is made up of a mixture of video and audio streaming, digital downloads and physical releases. Digital and physical count the most.
It has streamed 1.1M+ since it was released on you tube 1st Dec
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 18 Dec 24 14:17
Pc abolished for less than 25k
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 18 Dec 24 14:17
Per annum
By:
Jim Duncan
When: 18 Dec 24 14:19
...calculated on 52 'active' weeks - "An Active Week will be considered as any week where you have at least one settled bet in a market that fully settles in that week."
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 18 Dec 24 14:24
Interpret that for me jim
By:
Cider
When: 18 Dec 24 15:14
I've had to drop a little profit covering this thing, it's still a huge mountain to climb to go from near zero to 25K+ daily. Near impossible in 2024, I'd say. However, I am obviously forever haunted by ladbaby year 1 when ava max looked home and hosed, and due to greed only came away with about 500 profit. The Telegraph story online has 1600+ comments since last evening, and the Labour gvnt upset even more people yesterday (is there anyone left?).
By:
Cider
When: 18 Dec 24 15:17
Most likely, lots of people viewing the yt video (as they have been over the last couple of weeks). But not significant downloading, or audio streams. It's never registered on spoty
By:
Cider
When: 18 Dec 24 15:19
yt was 1 million last night, so circa plus 124K today.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 18 Dec 24 15:21
Spaffer song bj is a f c got pretty high, as did the follow up
Bj isafc

No reason Starmer song shouldn't chart quite high.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 18 Dec 24 15:24
No 5 in 2020?
By:
Cider
When: 18 Dec 24 15:25
It was number 85 after 3 days. Only this waspi thing has given it a bit of new oxygen, otherwise it wouldn't have charted. One difference I mentioned before, this one was released so lots of sales didn't count for the important chart. And cuunnts did multiple versions.
By:
Cider
When: 18 Dec 24 17:58
01 W 39294
02 Gracie 29325
03 M 28551
04 Tom 27554
05 Brenda 23887
By:
Cider
When: 18 Dec 24 23:31
I've already done it, anyone who has an interest in this market, please @BetfairCS and request they add SIR STARMER & GRANNY HARMERS to the market. Ta.
By:
Cider
When: 18 Dec 24 23:38
I don't know where it lands, no kworb for iTunes of course :(. There's a fair chance it has had decent cut through due to the waspi let down, and will chart somewhere on Friday in the chart rundown. Quite clever to use the angle about the BBC refusing to play it, that has enjoyed some traction.
By:
Cider
When: 19 Dec 24 07:38
Keir was asked about the Starmer harmer track at PMQs yesterday. Didn't answer the question, obviously!

Apprx 300K yt streams, which would put it at #1 on yt for UK yesterday.

fwiw ordinarily, streaming for the last day has to be estimated, due to late data. yt can often be two days late. Most yt streams are 1:600 though, so not hugely significant unless it's really close.
By:
SuperSniper
When: 19 Dec 24 16:50
There must be some political block in place as I can’t even see Starmer song on odds checker, it is potentially 2nd place that’s why there is a huge gap in the odds on BF, if it somehow wins there will be a backlash as not even being able to back it aside from laying is quite sketchy
By:
Cider
When: 19 Dec 24 17:29
Virtually impossible to gauge accurately, but from what I can recall, last year Wham were almost no offers at this point. Some cash appeared for them today since the figures became available for those who have access to the daily data, so they most likely still have had a big lead with a day to go. You'd really need to know what Starmer did yesterday to get a proper handle on if the mainstream coverage has translated into significant downloads.

A few indications I've been monitoring in addition to yt, the Just Giving page has gone up from circa 1000 to 1500 donators in the last few days. And the original Mud song has climbed up spotify a few dozen places. The Starmer version still not registered in the t200.

Quite annoying that bf have ignored the requests to list it. More or less it's the inverse to Wham at this point, trading 8-10 would be my estimate.

I've taken the prudent option, unusually for me! Though my instinct is still that it has too much to do, the insurance is worth it. I was planning to insure anyway, but waspi letdown meant the price went up lol

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds
Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Wham
1.17
£1,668.03
£277.31
By:
Cider
When: 19 Dec 24 17:36
Plus the daily OCC article is pretty much accepting a fait accompli. I can't be amazingly confident they'd want to be seen adding to the Starmer hype, but would have to if it was really on. It appears the market will be left open tomorrow, when the result becomes known but embargoed.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 19 Dec 24 17:49
I doubt the Johnson tracks got the credit they actually accrued
and likely this suffers same lack of traction in
official views as folk watch copies or links not
attached to charts as social media influencers
link to their own accounts.
By:
Cider
When: 19 Dec 24 18:04
The chap who created it says he wasn't interested in Xmas #1, and only got involved in trying to chart high since it went viral. That was obvious and he didn't know how the charts are compiled, like most people. It's pretty good now, but the original primary link via yt went to Amazon streaming! And the significant opportunity for this type of entry is to have a presale dump on day 1 and get near the top on first look, where downloads have a massive advantage. Very much like ladbaby year one, falling into luck and the waspi thing has given it some life. But downloads are much more difficult to accumulate, most people are seemingly accessing it via yt which is now at nearly 1.5M. But 800K / 600 only = 1333, and pretty sure today's will only be estimated.
By:
Cider
When: 20 Dec 24 14:18
The bank of Xmas #1 pays out, and closes down for another year :)
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 Dec 24 15:34
Never in doubt, nice bonus for bookies laying no hopers
to the echo chamber boys.
By:
Cider
When: 20 Dec 24 15:43
Would be interesting to see how much they copped on band aid. Money for nothing. But very much encourages them to keep the market going.

There will be some calling for the OCC to shake up the rules again.
By:
Cider
When: 20 Dec 24 16:18
Sir Starmer and the Granny Harmers - Freezing This Christmas made the top 40! #37. They must have done more than Wham over the last couple of days.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 Dec 24 16:37
Too many grifters not linking to official sites.

The charity was only at £12k yesterday which suggests it was being
mass shared but not getting proper linkage.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 Dec 24 16:39
Bookies love these markets

Betfair don't like this because of mad world back in the day
and ensuing problem with names of artists on releases.
By:
Cider
When: 20 Dec 24 16:45
It was completely disorganised. But, taken at his word, he wasn't even trying (it showed). If he had got to #1 on first look, and BBC 'refused' to play it, could have won. As always looked likely, the crossover to mainstream came way too late. Cost me about £100 in the end, covering it. Even Amazon had hidden it away on their website, wasn't showing up on either of their singles or album chart. Took me a good few minutes to find it. But must have been selling more than what they listed as #1, tom grennan.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 Dec 24 17:15
It's not his fault at all.

It's just that song got picked up and used without getting official recognition for plays.



Also, the chart seems to be very heavily influenced by smooth radio playlist.

Although, of course smooth radio playlist is heavily influenced by their research...
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 20 Dec 24 17:17
Bbc refused to play Johnson songs, it's obvious
bbc won't get involved, nor should they.
By:
Cider
When: 20 Dec 24 17:49
The anti Boris track was just swearing. Obviously couldn't have been played. The anti Starmer song has no swearing, no excuse. BBC are getting involved by not playing it.

I'm not saying he is at fault. It has been a resounding success, got the message out and the JG will likely get to £50K. I'm just coming at it from the cynical perspective of the Xmas #1. Had to have presales, had to have multiple versions, had to have direct links to downloads, had to chart high on first look, had to 'sell' downloads rather than streaming. Of course he couldn't have known that the waspie let down would happen in the chart week.
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