IAC 2019 Day 22, The Final!

Roman is the IAC version of Karim. We're lucky to have him.

Looks ok for Roman,  a lot of votes probably already cast

They could all just walk off

Has to be Roman 3rd after that edit

Andy`s come across as a decent sort, if hardly Mr Charismatic Personality, much like Fogarty. Army spotted the `Northern` angle and, as JOT put it, `it`s a Northern thing`; this is important to remember for next year

Phew

at last

Go JJ

jossa

Now leave it to Andy

who is going against the inside money? Crazy

was about to say the same keynes. Totally bonkers to take on those who haven't been wrong once all series

keynes 08 Dec 19 21:55 
who is going against the inside money? Crazy

Casuals, not reading this forum, and unaware of the elimination market shenanigans. In that sense, all of us on here are semi-insiders!

10

Dec 8, 2019 -- 9:58PM, timbuctooth wrote:

keynes 08 Dec 19 21:55  who is going against the inside money? CrazyCasuals, not reading this forum, and unaware of the elimination market shenanigans. In that sense, all of us on here are semi-insiders!

casuals dont offer 1300 at 1.13!

Will Hill still 1/3 Andy

Laying it? It`s only actually £170 of liability

It's not over

surely it is

Dislike them both..preference for Jaq out of the 2...tried to lay big at 1.13 but market **** it’s pants

kirky mopping up the last few votes

Andy seems to get pimp in every segment

It's literally the Andy show

Kirk getting  a great edit

kirk just hit 1.3 then

Fantastically timed pimpage, just to remove all doubt

was reading today that ratings are down 5 million from opening show whereas last year much higher, don't think it's because Holly Willoughby is not presenting it's just that contestants on the whole this year have been quite dull, it's been a largely forgettable series really, kinda died when James/Ian went, too many nice straight-laced people.

Just had a bit matched at 1.26, maybe it`s not over

Market is very weak wonder if insiders don't have access mind this last voting segment is only 30 mins or so.
Without money as a guide perhaps market is clean

1,3 was hit? Ooooh what fun and games if he`s turned over

lpm 1.31

Agree Jot, market seems clean..

Andy a mile clear on twatter

pretty natural there'd be jitters over last minute voting

No one has bottomless pockets. Eventually those in the know will have maxed out

Lovely girl, what`s she doing with that Dan jerk?

Joe swash does, he advertises Greggs on his Insta

Dec 8, 2019 -- 10:26PM, five leaves left wrote:

No one has bottomless pockets. Eventually those in the know will have maxed out

Exactamundo !

GL all. As said, Andy clear on Twitter so am hopeful but you never know.

Don't see any reason for the insiders to have got everything right but the winner. Late money not that strange, people laying off whilst the insiders left probably. He has won on the bridle I think.

ooh close

incredibly close lol

11 million votes, incredibly close

lolol

Unbeliveable

Opps

wow.

FFS

Andy gutted

Surprise

gobsmacked

what is she famous for? singer?

Wowsers nothing to suggest that was gonna happen perhaps the eastenders vote is stronger than the corrie one

some burnt fingers at the very I'm glad I tend to be cautious and not get too greedy

very end*

My word, good phuck!!! Serious sympathies to anyone who went all-in on Andy.

Huge shock that given the market got everything nailed. Very strange. Well played winners

darren_discombobulates_sports 08 Dec 19 22:33 
what is she famous for? singer?

Ex(?) Eastenders actress

will be interesting to see the figures and whether JJ took the lead after Roman left, or led from the start of the final

most votes cast at the bitter end. Final brings in a lot more casuals. Insiders should have known better and were probably just nabbed on line

Personally think JJ led when three left then Roman Voters switched to Andy when 2 left so Andy closing in on JJ after the 5 free votes given.

I would say the other way round, but we'll find out soon I guess

thanks timbuctooth, have not seen Eastenders since the 2000 or thereabouts, I didn't realise that as still popular, last I heard they were only achieving around 4-5 million viewers, a far cry from the Dirty Den days when 30 million tuned in!

jeremy corbyn hoping the same counters are working thurday lol

Given the elimination markets that is a huge shock.  I was so confident I wasn't even looking at the betting.

What a divine creature Kate is. At 50!!!

Given the elimination markets it's hard to imagine he wasn't in front going into tonight, or else the insiders have manipulated the market perfectly and then show their card at the very last minute with the 1.13 to 1.4 drift.

Haven't been so shocked by a result since Lucy Pargeter beat Joey Essex

If there were insiders betting on outright they might have assumed Andy would win because he had the eating trial and vote tranfer from Roman when he went out 3rd (even if JJ was leading vote before show).

I think the most likely assumption is that there were never insiders.

Andy was backed down to 1.11 soon after the lines reopened for the final between him and Jossa , all very strange

All my AP bets on Andy before the show began consigned to the bin

Whaaaat? Every elim with the market getting it right is just about feasible; for each to be matched at such extreme lows upon market loading, and the constant (if not huge) money in the same, correct, direction on every occasion is downright unfeasible.

Joel; `it was really close`

It's not unfeasible because the last one was the same and got beat.  None of the eliminations were surprises.  Every one bar one I'd have had fave.  The perception of insiders feeds itself.

When you have eliminated all the possibles, whatever is left, however improbable, is the only plausible answer

Joel just said really really close, suspect the unseen final only vote swung it for her

when we see the results we'll have a better idea

I said in 2005 every elimination fave was backed and won, but not the semi final

The flaw in your argument, CB, is that we don`t know if ` the last one was the same`; we can`t know this, because we don`t know their MO. When do they get latest figures? At what time? How many updates? With updates until what time? By which time, what percentage of votes have been cast? How much variation can be expected in later votes? Which would be affected by things like who`s left in there, what night of the week it is, what the viewing figures for that night will be, how the edit will affect votes, etc, etc, etc.

The thing is tim.  There are bigger flaws in other arguments.  I think the counter argument is that there were insiders, Andy was leading througout, they got complacent and there was a late swing.  The resuly=ts will tell us more.  James did actually drift from 1.6 to 1.9 when he went, and Miles was backed into 3 with Ian at 9.  Perhaps that was a clue as the next elimination it was Ian, not Myles that got heavily backed.  It didn't quite add up, amongst all the other evidence.  I will be interested to see the figures for those 2 eliminations.

Before JJ did the Jumanji task on Thursday she was 15 in the o/r don't forget.  It's hard to see that stacking up if there were insiders.

Dec 8, 2019 -- 10:59PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:

Given the elimination markets it's hard to imagine he wasn't in front going into tonight, or else the insiders have manipulated the market perfectly and then show their card at the very last minute with the 1.13 to 1.4 drift.

...correct

She was 6/4 - 2/1 to be top female on Thursday.  She must have been miles clear of the others in that

`...there were insiders, Andy was leading througout, they got complacent and there was a late swing...`

That`s how I`m seeing things, so we can agree. Entirely possible that, with today being the last day, no show to prepare for tomorrow, that many staff won`t have even been working today, possibly including any insiders

Voting figures will show it all but the market has been saying that she was the only danger to Andy and that Roman had no chance the last few days. I think she's pipped him at the post.

Big difference between VTS with seven still in there on Thursday, and VTW with just three runners left; all sorts of vote transference going on.

Spot on Tim.

So if the results say Jacqueline was leading at any stage, apart from tonight, that means there were not insiders?  I find it harder to believe that she wasn't clearly in contention to win on voting figures during the final week, that would make double figure prices, if you were aware of the voting unfeasible.  But when we see the results we will have a better idea

Just a guess but i reckon Jaq had about 10% lead when Roman still in then Andy closed it to within 2% because of vote transfer from Roman (and the 5 new app votes).

....and Andy doing eating trial.

Wow!! I didn't even watch coz I thought it was a done deal with insider money holding Andy's price so low. Otherwise would have taken it on.

Think Tim has it right

I'm disappointed that Kate didn't make the final (agree Tim - at 50 she's decent fappage). Andy being beaten saved my bacon though.

I don't play the elimination markets as I'm suspicious of insider money, but I feel the final night is quite likely to be clean for all practical purposes. Producers are surely more likely to tighten up security on the final night whereas it's hard to imagine a voting scandal over a market outsider leaving 4th instead of 3rd. If you were an insider facing a huge vote on the last night and line-closings in between wouldn't your strategy have been to use your knowledge to bet much earlier at higher odds and with your last minute info decide whether to either quietly level up hidden by the volume or simply let the bet run? Would you actually bother to add even more money at very short odds if there was any uncertainty or delay in your inside gen?

what got her the win was 5 of the last 6 out all wanted her to win, no one said andy apart from cliff and he picked two others, being late in makes it very hard to win. dont get the respect from the others

Well there was a late swing, but it didn't swing the way that supports your theory tim.  Andy closed the h2h gap from 4.34% to 1.21%.

No results for anything but the final, as things stand, on the official site though

The fact that he got more than her in the final few minutes doesn`t prove or disprove what we were discussing; the theory will be confirmed or shot to pieces only when we know the previous figures

Sorry, mis-worded that^^^, should be `the fact that she was leading a few minutes from the end`; it`s irrelevant to the theory what happened in those final minutes

Jacqueline 50.61%
Andy 49.39%
Source - Tellymix

surprise result or was it, there was huge sympathy for her with husband dan headline news with reports of his cheating last 3 days, sympathy vote looks like just swung it
without the headlines on husband dan, andy would have walked it just think one off sympathy vote but she was backed late if id have had a bet id have been worried with the late money for her