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timbuctooth
08 Dec 19 22:03
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Date Joined: 11 Jun 12
| Topic/replies: 19,338 | Blogger: timbuctooth's blog
I did wait for you to do it, JOT
Pause Switch to Standard View IAC 2019 Day 22, The Final!
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Report Cider December 8, 2019 9:34 PM GMT
Roman is the IAC version of Karim. We're lucky to have him.
Report mach December 8, 2019 9:36 PM GMT
Looks ok for Roman,  a lot of votes probably already cast
Report Cider December 8, 2019 9:37 PM GMT
They could all just walk off
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 8, 2019 9:46 PM GMT
Has to be Roman 3rd after that edit
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 9:47 PM GMT
Andy`s come across as a decent sort, if hardly Mr Charismatic Personality, much like Fogarty. Army spotted the `Northern` angle and, as JOT put it, `it`s a Northern thing`; this is important to remember for next year
Report bearcub December 8, 2019 9:50 PM GMT
Phew Cool
Report five leaves left December 8, 2019 9:50 PM GMT
at last
Report Cider December 8, 2019 9:51 PM GMT
Go JJ Love
Report SlippyBlue December 8, 2019 9:54 PM GMT
jossa
Report Cider December 8, 2019 9:54 PM GMT
Now leave it to Andy Grin
Report keynes December 8, 2019 9:55 PM GMT
who is going against the inside money? Crazy
Report five leaves left December 8, 2019 9:57 PM GMT
was about to say the same keynes. Totally bonkers to take on those who haven't been wrong once all series
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 9:58 PM GMT
keynes 08 Dec 19 21:55 
who is going against the inside money? Crazy

Casuals, not reading this forum, and unaware of the elimination market shenanigans. In that sense, all of us on here are semi-insiders!
Report SlippyBlue December 8, 2019 9:59 PM GMT
10
Report keynes December 8, 2019 9:59 PM GMT

Dec 8, 2019 -- 10:58PM, timbuctooth wrote:


keynes 08 Dec 19 21:55  who is going against the inside money? CrazyCasuals, not reading this forum, and unaware of the elimination market shenanigans. In that sense, all of us on here are semi-insiders!


casuals dont offer 1300 at 1.13!

Report BETED December 8, 2019 10:02 PM GMT
Will Hill still 1/3 Andy
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 10:02 PM GMT
Laying it? It`s only actually £170 of liability
Report mach December 8, 2019 10:06 PM GMT
It's not over
Report Froggitt December 8, 2019 10:13 PM GMT
surely it is
Report internet December 8, 2019 10:14 PM GMT
Dislike them both..preference for Jaq out of the 2...tried to lay big at 1.13 but market **** it’s pants
Report Froggitt December 8, 2019 10:14 PM GMT
kirky mopping up the last few votes
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 8, 2019 10:16 PM GMT
Andy seems to get pimp in every segment
Report bearcub December 8, 2019 10:17 PM GMT
It's literally the Andy show
Report mach December 8, 2019 10:18 PM GMT
Kirk getting  a great edit
Report Froggitt December 8, 2019 10:19 PM GMT
kirk just hit 1.3 then
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 10:20 PM GMT
Fantastically timed pimpage, just to remove all doubt
Report darren_discombobulates_sports December 8, 2019 10:21 PM GMT
was reading today that ratings are down 5 million from opening show whereas last year much higher, don't think it's because Holly Willoughby is not presenting it's just that contestants on the whole this year have been quite dull, it's been a largely forgettable series really, kinda died when James/Ian went, too many nice straight-laced people.
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 10:21 PM GMT
Just had a bit matched at 1.26, maybe it`s not over
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 8, 2019 10:22 PM GMT
Market is very weak wonder if insiders don't have access mind this last voting segment is only 30 mins or so.
Without money as a guide perhaps market is clean
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 10:23 PM GMT
1,3 was hit? Ooooh what fun and games if he`s turned over
Report Froggitt December 8, 2019 10:24 PM GMT
lpm 1.31
Report bearcub December 8, 2019 10:24 PM GMT
Agree Jot, market seems clean..

Andy a mile clear on twatter
Report keynes December 8, 2019 10:24 PM GMT
pretty natural there'd be jitters over last minute voting
Report five leaves left December 8, 2019 10:26 PM GMT
No one has bottomless pockets. Eventually those in the know will have maxed out
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 10:26 PM GMT
Lovely girl, what`s she doing with that Dan jerk?
Report bearcub December 8, 2019 10:27 PM GMT
Joe swash does, he advertises Greggs on his Insta Cry
Report five leaves left December 8, 2019 10:27 PM GMT
Laugh
Report Angela Rebecchi December 8, 2019 10:28 PM GMT

Dec 8, 2019 -- 11:26PM, five leaves left wrote:


No one has bottomless pockets. Eventually those in the know will have maxed out


Exactamundo !

Report Danzaa December 8, 2019 10:28 PM GMT
GL all. As said, Andy clear on Twitter so am hopeful but you never know.
Report Angela Rebecchi December 8, 2019 10:30 PM GMT
Don't see any reason for the insiders to have got everything right but the winner. Late money not that strange, people laying off whilst the insiders left probably. He has won on the bridle I think.
Report five leaves left December 8, 2019 10:30 PM GMT
ooh close
Report Froggitt December 8, 2019 10:30 PM GMT
incredibly close lol
Report bearcub December 8, 2019 10:30 PM GMT
11 million votes, incredibly close
Report bearcub December 8, 2019 10:31 PM GMT
CoolCoolCool
Report five leaves left December 8, 2019 10:31 PM GMT
Laugh
Report Froggitt December 8, 2019 10:31 PM GMT
lolol
Report bearcub December 8, 2019 10:31 PM GMT
Unbeliveable Cry
Report internet December 8, 2019 10:31 PM GMT
Opps
Report Angela Rebecchi December 8, 2019 10:31 PM GMT
wow.
Report Danzaa December 8, 2019 10:31 PM GMT
FFS
Report five leaves left December 8, 2019 10:31 PM GMT
Andy gutted Sad
Report mach December 8, 2019 10:32 PM GMT
Surprise
Report Froggitt December 8, 2019 10:33 PM GMT
gobsmacked
Report darren_discombobulates_sports December 8, 2019 10:33 PM GMT
what is she famous for? singer?
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 8, 2019 10:33 PM GMT
Wowsers nothing to suggest that was gonna happen perhaps the eastenders vote is stronger than the corrie one
Report five leaves left December 8, 2019 10:34 PM GMT
some burnt fingers at the very Grin I'm glad I tend to be cautious and not get too greedy
Report five leaves left December 8, 2019 10:34 PM GMT
very end*
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 10:34 PM GMT
My word, good phuck!!! Serious sympathies to anyone who went all-in on Andy.
Report Angela Rebecchi December 8, 2019 10:35 PM GMT
Huge shock that given the market got everything nailed. Very strange. Well played winners
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 10:36 PM GMT
darren_discombobulates_sports 08 Dec 19 22:33 
what is she famous for? singer?

Ex(?) Eastenders actress
Report five leaves left December 8, 2019 10:36 PM GMT
will be interesting to see the figures and whether JJ took the lead after Roman left, or led from the start of the final
Report keynes December 8, 2019 10:39 PM GMT
most votes cast at the bitter end. Final brings in a lot more casuals. Insiders should have known better and were probably just nabbed on line
Report scampi December 8, 2019 10:44 PM GMT
Personally think JJ led when three left then Roman Voters switched to Andy when 2 left so Andy closing in on JJ after the 5 free votes given.
Report five leaves left December 8, 2019 10:45 PM GMT
I would say the other way round, but we'll find out soon I guess
Report darren_discombobulates_sports December 8, 2019 10:47 PM GMT
thanks timbuctooth, have not seen Eastenders since the 2000 or thereabouts, I didn't realise that as still popular, last I heard they were only achieving around 4-5 million viewers, a far cry from the Dirty Den days when 30 million tuned in!
Report the.mad.dog.man December 8, 2019 10:48 PM GMT
jeremy corbyn hoping the same counters are working thurday lol
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 8, 2019 10:57 PM GMT
Given the elimination markets that is a huge shock.  I was so confident I wasn't even looking at the betting.
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 10:58 PM GMT
What a divine creature Kate is. At 50!!!
Report Angela Rebecchi December 8, 2019 10:59 PM GMT
Given the elimination markets it's hard to imagine he wasn't in front going into tonight, or else the insiders have manipulated the market perfectly and then show their card at the very last minute with the 1.13 to 1.4 drift.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 8, 2019 10:59 PM GMT
Haven't been so shocked by a result since Lucy Pargeter beat Joey Essex
Report scampi December 8, 2019 11:05 PM GMT
If there were insiders betting on outright they might have assumed Andy would win because he had the eating trial and vote tranfer from Roman when he went out 3rd (even if JJ was leading vote before show).
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 8, 2019 11:08 PM GMT
I think the most likely assumption is that there were never insiders.
Report Biffo2010 December 8, 2019 11:10 PM GMT
Andy was backed down to 1.11 soon after the lines reopened for the final between him and Jossa , all very strange
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 8, 2019 11:11 PM GMT
All my AP bets on Andy before the show began consigned to the bin Sad
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 11:14 PM GMT
Whaaaat? Every elim with the market getting it right is just about feasible; for each to be matched at such extreme lows upon market loading, and the constant (if not huge) money in the same, correct, direction on every occasion is downright unfeasible.
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 11:19 PM GMT
Joel; `it was really close`
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 8, 2019 11:20 PM GMT
It's not unfeasible because the last one was the same and got beat.  None of the eliminations were surprises.  Every one bar one I'd have had fave.  The perception of insiders feeds itself.

When you have eliminated all the possibles, whatever is left, however improbable, is the only plausible answer
Report J.O.TOBIN. December 8, 2019 11:20 PM GMT
Joel just said really really close, suspect the unseen final only vote swung it for her
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 8, 2019 11:22 PM GMT
when we see the results we'll have a better idea
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 8, 2019 11:24 PM GMT
I said in 2005 every elimination fave was backed and won, but not the semi final
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 11:31 PM GMT
The flaw in your argument, CB, is that we don`t know if ` the last one was the same`; we can`t know this, because we don`t know their MO. When do they get latest figures? At what time? How many updates? With updates until what time? By which time, what percentage of votes have been cast? How much variation can be expected in later votes? Which would be affected by things like who`s left in there, what night of the week it is, what the viewing figures for that night will be, how the edit will affect votes, etc, etc, etc.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 8, 2019 11:38 PM GMT
The thing is tim.  There are bigger flaws in other arguments.  I think the counter argument is that there were insiders, Andy was leading througout, they got complacent and there was a late swing.  The resuly=ts will tell us more.  James did actually drift from 1.6 to 1.9 when he went, and Miles was backed into 3 with Ian at 9.  Perhaps that was a clue as the next elimination it was Ian, not Myles that got heavily backed.  It didn't quite add up, amongst all the other evidence.  I will be interested to see the figures for those 2 eliminations.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 8, 2019 11:42 PM GMT
Before JJ did the Jumanji task on Thursday she was 15 in the o/r don't forget.  It's hard to see that stacking up if there were insiders.
Report Jim Duncan December 8, 2019 11:43 PM GMT

Dec 8, 2019 -- 11:59PM, Angela Rebecchi wrote:


Given the elimination markets it's hard to imagine he wasn't in front going into tonight, or else the insiders have manipulated the market perfectly and then show their card at the very last minute with the 1.13 to 1.4 drift.


...correct

Report CLYDEBANK29 December 8, 2019 11:43 PM GMT
She was 6/4 - 2/1 to be top female on Thursday.  She must have been miles clear of the others in that
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 11:45 PM GMT
`...there were insiders, Andy was leading througout, they got complacent and there was a late swing...`

That`s how I`m seeing things, so we can agree. Entirely possible that, with today being the last day, no show to prepare for tomorrow, that many staff won`t have even been working today, possibly including any insiders
Report Angela Rebecchi December 8, 2019 11:46 PM GMT
Voting figures will show it all but the market has been saying that she was the only danger to Andy and that Roman had no chance the last few days. I think she's pipped him at the post.
Report timbuctooth December 8, 2019 11:50 PM GMT
Big difference between VTS with seven still in there on Thursday, and VTW with just three runners left; all sorts of vote transference going on.
Report Angela Rebecchi December 9, 2019 12:12 AM GMT
Spot on Tim.
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 9, 2019 12:16 AM GMT
So if the results say Jacqueline was leading at any stage, apart from tonight, that means there were not insiders?  I find it harder to believe that she wasn't clearly in contention to win on voting figures during the final week, that would make double figure prices, if you were aware of the voting unfeasible.  But when we see the results we will have a better idea
Report scampi December 9, 2019 12:38 AM GMT
Just a guess but i reckon Jaq had about 10% lead when Roman still in then Andy closed it to within 2% because of vote transfer from Roman (and the 5 new app votes).
Report scampi December 9, 2019 12:40 AM GMT
....and Andy doing eating trial.
Report Lifter December 9, 2019 12:57 AM GMT
Wow!! I didn't even watch coz I thought it was a done deal with insider money holding Andy's price so low. Otherwise would have taken it on.

Think Tim has it right
Report VardonVoo. December 9, 2019 4:47 AM GMT
I'm disappointed that Kate didn't make the final (agree Tim - at 50 she's decent fappage). Andy being beaten saved my bacon though.

I don't play the elimination markets as I'm suspicious of insider money, but I feel the final night is quite likely to be clean for all practical purposes. Producers are surely more likely to tighten up security on the final night whereas it's hard to imagine a voting scandal over a market outsider leaving 4th instead of 3rd. If you were an insider facing a huge vote on the last night and line-closings in between wouldn't your strategy have been to use your knowledge to bet much earlier at higher odds and with your last minute info decide whether to either quietly level up hidden by the volume or simply let the bet run? Would you actually bother to add even more money at very short odds if there was any uncertainty or delay in your inside gen?
Report armagnac December 9, 2019 8:42 AM GMT
what got her the win was 5 of the last 6 out all wanted her to win, no one said andy apart from cliff and he picked two others, being late in makes it very hard to win. dont get the respect from the others
Report CLYDEBANK29 December 10, 2019 7:24 PM GMT
Well there was a late swing, but it didn't swing the way that supports your theory tim.  Andy closed the h2h gap from 4.34% to 1.21%.

No results for anything but the final, as things stand, on the official site though
Report timbuctooth December 10, 2019 10:59 PM GMT
The fact that he got more than her in the final few minutes doesn`t prove or disprove what we were discussing; the theory will be confirmed or shot to pieces only when we know the previous figures
Report timbuctooth December 10, 2019 11:08 PM GMT
Sorry, mis-worded that^^^, should be `the fact that she was leading a few minutes from the end`; it`s irrelevant to the theory what happened in those final minutes
Report BETED December 11, 2019 3:08 PM GMT
Jacqueline 50.61%
Andy 49.39%
Source - Tellymix
Report know all December 11, 2019 5:14 PM GMT
surprise result or was it, there was huge sympathy for her with husband dan headline news with reports of his cheating last 3 days, sympathy vote looks like just swung it
without the headlines on husband dan, andy would have walked it just think one off sympathy vote but she was backed late if id have had a bet id have been worried with the late money for her
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