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Watching on plus 1 Andrew a grade A kernt
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Shane J is treading water looked awful in the task, Barnsey a gent.
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Ann had a horrid show imo, the pith one liners and old fashioned morality are fading to unpleasant opinions and delusional interactions with other housemates.
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I wonder when the market will signal who is out. Hard to believe it won't have leaked by lunchtime if someone really is already out.
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Anyone want to confess to backing Shane L at the recent prices? The money for him is starting to look a bit suspicious, but then if Ann has really gone you'd expect her to drift like a barge.
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Tense times for those of us with extreme positions; all about whether Ann stays, so which way to jump? Changed my mind numerous times, left bets up, taken them down a couple of times, but have finally plumped for `She stays! Get this right, series set up very nicely; wrong, and it`s an awful long way back...
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Mathematically, Ann`s got a 25% chance of going. BUT, the girls are one up, probably best-of-three game that is likely to be r1gged in their favour. So, Ann`s real chance of going is nearer maybe 10%. If she stays, her price would be likely to be about half what it is now, leaving backers with a 10% chance of doing their dough, 90% chance of doubling it. Win or lose, that`s a great value call, I`m going for it, even though she looks suspiciously driffy. No matter, just increases the value!
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Getting a bit excited, enjoying the fun of this, forgot to throw in the fact that, even if the girls lost, Amanda`s likely to be pretending she wants to leave, an offer the boys might find too easy to reject. Even better value, off to top up!
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Thats been my thinking as well so I've topped up on Ann.My head says she will be safe but got to admit I'm a bit nervous.
Got her and Amanda as my biggest greens, so going to be a big blow if one of them goes. |
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The maths are all a bit unquantifiable, but we`ve backed something like a 1.1 shot, which pays about 2.0; might lose this time, but definitely the way forward long term
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c'mon then tim, give us some market predictions as your're quite good at.
two new markets, top 3/4 will do both where ann stays, but one where amanda stays and the other where she goes tia |
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Prediction of what the market will do, as opposed to what it should do;
A boy goes; Ann 3.25 Courtney 3.25 Shane 6.0 Amanda 16 OR Ann goes Courtney 2.2 Shane 3.5 Amanda 8.0 OR Amanda goes Ann 3.0 Courtney 3.15 Shane 5.5 |
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Ann is fading imo, Shane L will end up shorter than Ann if Ann stays imo
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Seeing it written in black and white, I think I may have got Amanda`s price a bit wrong, should Ann be gone. Being the market-leading female, she`d probably go shorter than my 8.0, but whatever price, it`s too short!
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Those ahead of the curve will agree that Ann is fading, but all the while she`s polling so well, the market will be behind that curve.
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Just a bit of a disclaimer; when I was outlining the maths, Ann was at at least 6.8, quite possibly even higher. As the price goes down, so does the potential value behind the strategy.
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What a fun stand-off this is/has been, amazed the market`s not telling us who`s gone, so well done TPTB.
Anyone care to offer a different set of predicted prices? |
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thanks tim, ignore mach 1 plankton makes more than him
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ann's meme now has 1400 shares, and 4500 likes..more than enough to win any VTW, does not even include the nolan voting effect
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