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armagnac
05 Aug 16 16:05
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 63,883 | Blogger: armagnac's blog
i actually make this a coin flip after seeing the spoiler, easily the best value bet of the series so far ladies and gents.

Grant gets a lovely early bit in the diary room where he comes across as honest and sincere, leaving plenty of time for lots of votes to save him.

In the diary room, Grant reveals to Big Brother; “Facing eviction is unpleasant. It’s like a thunderstorm over your head! I’ve tried to be me, I haven’t had a game plan.”


whereas james has two bits and in the 1st bit he says how happy he will be to leave and asks the others if he stays, to keep nomming him.
its well known, that housemates who want to go..generally do, when the public own there fate

In the smoking area, James announces that if he is evicted, he will be ‘the happiest man alive’, and asks his housemates to continue to nominate him if he isn’t evicted


James is in the diary room; “If I go out tomorrow, I’ll be absolutely fascinated to see how it unfolds…I won’t miss the chaos. I think I’ll be here for another week.”


it looks crystal clear to me from the edit who the prods want to keep.
at least bovey is trying and wants to be there
whale is a bit bored and wants out to cash his cheque

if things are not going to plan the prods can easily leave the vote open long enough for bovey to be saved.
there is two eviction shows tonight

9pm - 10pm
10:30pm - 11:05pm

if they don't close the vote till the start of the 2nd show, i believe whale is long odds on to get evicted.
basically given the edit, the longer phone lines are open the more likely whale goes.
Pause Switch to Standard View *Whale too get evicted at 3/1 is...
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Report armagnac August 5, 2016 4:57 PM BST
yep, was just gonna post that, dilf Cool
its why marnie is trying to bag it Grin
can't see whale getting any young female votes
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 4:59 PM BST
i think the books have really gotten this wrong, i hope everyone is gonna take the thieving b@stards to the cleaners

c'mon everyone, join in the biggest gamble of the year so far

ive gone from confident when starting this thread, too super confident
feck evens the field

whale should be 1/2 to go, reckon he will be by lines closed
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 5:27 PM BST
Glad everyone has caught up Wink
Report Henry VIII August 5, 2016 5:37 PM BST
Whale is a t0sser saying he wants to go. He's doing it because he's convinced he's going anyway and doesn't want to lose face.
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 5:41 PM BST
In the live feed he was sh1tting himself at the thought of going first talking to bovey who was more philosophical...so yes all bluster...I just hope it blows up in his face as usually those who want to go get their wish...suspect C5 know there is more mileage in bovey
Report stu August 5, 2016 5:45 PM BST
Whale had his story first couple of days, since then nothing.
Report five leaves left August 5, 2016 5:52 PM BST
TPTB hoping for the 1st ever 3some. Marnie, Lewis and Bovey. Frankie might even get involved
Report stu August 5, 2016 5:55 PM BST
if Frankie does then Biggins will be straight in there too Grin
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 5:55 PM BST
Frankie will be holding the silver tray with the charlie on it
Report stu August 5, 2016 6:01 PM BST
face down with Biggins behind him Silly
Report bearcub August 5, 2016 6:09 PM BST
Second show probably live nominations
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 6:14 PM BST
biggins nomination was cruel and underhand, so should get bovey some sympathy votes

also see bovey is a nottingham man, good voters from there
must be for getting bellend jackson to 3rd
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 6:20 PM BST
hopefully there is some more decent stuff in the edit for bovey, we know the spoiler don't tell all the story
but its plain as day who they want too keep and who they want gone

james in his dressing gown and early to bed offers nothing, as well as asking for noms and already saying on day1 he's here, only for the cash

at least grant is joining in and its tramp marnie who has been all over him..not the other way around
Report gawdalmighty August 5, 2016 6:23 PM BST
Surely after Jason winning the previous BB, instead of Hughie, anything is possible here  Crazy
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 6:29 PM BST
if bovey gets cheers tonight for that kiss, his price will crash fast.
as most that go are gay, its highly likely
plus G-Bo is in with the young crowd, they always get cheers

boring old farts always get jeered and booooo'ed

cheers means votes
boo's mean f off home
Report mach August 5, 2016 6:32 PM BST
Warning
Don't drink the koolaid, this train is heading for Jonestown Scared
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 6:32 PM BST
I predict half hearted cheeryboos for both...and yes you are right...67.53% of the crowd are gay...its a requirement the Government placed on C5
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 6:33 PM BST
87.23% of votes are cast on the night so when its close edit is king
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 6:34 PM BST
87.23% of votes are cast on the night so when its close edit is king
Report Helmuthian Folds August 5, 2016 6:37 PM BST
81.74% of all statistics are made up!
Report stu August 5, 2016 6:37 PM BST
...and we know of the edit, better for Grant, but favourite to lose this?
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 6:38 PM BST

Aug 5, 2016 -- 6:37PM, Helmuthian Folds wrote:


81.74% of all statistics are made up!


#81.75% ...don't worry a common mistake

Report armagnac August 5, 2016 6:40 PM BST
market gets a massive reality check (if it already hasn't by then) when james says, he want to go home and nom him if he stays
(nap)
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 6:41 PM BST
cheers for grant
boo's for whale

might even see a flip/flop
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 6:50 PM BST
That happens when Emma hiccups "its very close"
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 6:53 PM BST
ooooh yes bails, forgot about that
she loves saying it too, any hint of that and market carnage
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 6:54 PM BST
"its velly closh"
Report timbuctooth August 5, 2016 6:56 PM BST
There`s no `ifs` or `buts`; Whale has been the value to go, all week.
Report mach August 5, 2016 7:03 PM BST
I would agree since neither are great housemates, the value was with Whale to go, many things could have happened between monday night and friday night to shake things up, I just don't think anything has happened, so I now think Bovey is now the value to go, just because something is odds on, it does not stop it being value.
Glory hunting getting a big price winner is great fun, but you need to pick them carefully.
Good luck whale backers, I acknowledge it's not a certainty that Bovey goes, just likely.
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 7:07 PM BST
....as the market says Plain
Report map August 5, 2016 7:42 PM BST
erm isnt it right there mauy not be an eviction now
Report map August 5, 2016 7:45 PM BST
Press Association ‏@PA  15m15 minutes ago
#Breaking Christopher Biggins removed from Celebrity Big Brother house, show says.
Report Henry VIII August 5, 2016 7:46 PM BST
It's all set up for an eviction, 2 shows, crowds on scene, people paid money to vote, deffo by an eviction regardless of Biggins.
Report Henry VIII August 5, 2016 7:47 PM BST
* be
Report Henry VIII August 5, 2016 7:51 PM BST
I started off backing Bovey a bit on the edit but after thinking about it reversed.

There is no positive vote for Bovey. Whale will get a positive vote from:
  His radio fans, he’s a popular current broadcaster and has spent many years working all over the country       so will have many who listen to him now and many more who remember him fondly, enough will vote to beat Govey;
  People who like how he stood up to Bear and who realise he has much more show potential than Bovey.

It must also be worth something that, unlike Govey, he’s a proper celebrity.

Whale will also get the Bovey anti-vote:
  Middle aged women like to think that they are fancied by such men and hate it when they show their  interest for women half their age;
  Women who like Anthea Turner – he was made out to be a complete sh1t in all their mags;
  Women generally – he dumped his current girlfriend just to be free and single in CBB;
  Marnie fans who don’t like him leching after her.
Report jollyswagman August 5, 2016 7:55 PM BST
the ds forum that army mentioned earlier was about 2 - 1 in favour of whale, the kiss is seen as desperation.

whale does have some sm supporters, his mate eammon holmes has been speaking up for him all week. there was even a segment on that sh1t daytime tv show about the bullying.
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 7:55 PM BST
Someone likes Anthea Turner? Shocked
Report Froggitt August 5, 2016 7:55 PM BST
Women who like Anthea Turner errrrrrrrrmmmmmmm
Report stu August 5, 2016 8:02 PM BST
That's a postive vote for grant sorry H Laugh
Report Henry VIII August 5, 2016 8:04 PM BST

Aug 5, 2016 -- 8:02PM, stu wrote:


That's a postive vote for grant sorry H


Of course it's not Grin. But anyway I've never seen a comment supporting him over her and it was just one of many reasons anyway.

Report stu August 5, 2016 8:11 PM BST
All those who hate Anthea (a few? Mischief) vote Grant...
Report Froggitt August 5, 2016 8:16 PM BST

Aug 5, 2016 -- 7:42PM, map wrote:


erm isnt it right there mauy not be an eviction now


Big Brother UK ‏@bbuk  2m2 minutes ago
8.14pm: Action stations, @SamFoxCom! Not long now until eviction night begins. #CBBLive

Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 8:18 PM BST
Yeah but they are referring to Biggins
Report map August 5, 2016 8:21 PM BST
so surely no change, same two up for deviction? same as planned?
Report Froggitt August 5, 2016 8:23 PM BST
yup im sure its the same two
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 8:23 PM BST
Yeah money gone down phone call wise
Report map August 5, 2016 8:24 PM BST
im so bored, and tired ;|
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 8:24 PM BST
red bull gives u wings
Report map August 5, 2016 8:25 PM BST
got like 7.5hrs left at work
Report map August 5, 2016 8:25 PM BST
couldnt sleep well, too hot is the problem too
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 8:31 PM BST
yep, nothing worse than muggy days
not a fan of the heat myself
Report map August 5, 2016 8:32 PM BST
Gibraltar
viernes, 21:00
Mayormente nublado
Mayormente nublado
25°C | °F
Precipitaciones: 0%
Humedad: 83%
Viento: 19 km/h
TemperaturaPrecipitacionesViento
Report map August 5, 2016 8:32 PM BST
83% humidity not good
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 8:33 PM BST
map tell your boss your gran has died again...never fails that one Wink
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 8:34 PM BST
not for me, i like the idea of Scandinavia
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 8:34 PM BST
Scorchio
Report map August 5, 2016 8:37 PM BST
its hot during the day so wakeup and its boiling
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 8:38 PM BST
It will get worse when Spain closes the border and you can't get off
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 8:38 PM BST
what do you do there?
Report map August 5, 2016 8:39 PM BST
i live in gibraltar though, i dont need to cross the border to get to work
Report map August 5, 2016 8:40 PM BST
sod walking in 30c heat to work..and waiting at the border when there's a plane
Report map August 5, 2016 8:40 PM BST
i work for a bookmaker, and if it affects licenses etc then no doubt the companies will just move to Malta for example - oin which case, i dont care if the border's closed:P
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 8:41 PM BST
I won't go back to Malta...I got sun burnt there
Report map August 5, 2016 8:42 PM BST
so if border was closed, short term wouldnt affect me, i can still get to work..long term i imagine companies would move
Report map August 5, 2016 8:42 PM BST
it would be a pain if i was stuck in gibraltar, but im not, i rent here, im british andid go wherever work go
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 8:46 PM BST
Just be careful crawling under those machine gun posts
Report map August 5, 2016 8:46 PM BST
hah
Report map August 5, 2016 8:47 PM BST
living here if Spain closed the border would be AWFUL, seriously, gib is small - it relies on workers that corss the borders
Report ThePLOPKingOfSpam August 5, 2016 8:47 PM BST
WTF?
Report map August 5, 2016 8:47 PM BST
food and deliveres come through spain (ie morrisons products come from uk by lorry)
Report George Bailey August 5, 2016 8:47 PM BST
You'll need a map...
Report map August 5, 2016 8:48 PM BST
Excited
Report map August 5, 2016 8:48 PM BST
moving again could be fun, move to malta or anywhere in eu
Report Finnished August 5, 2016 8:50 PM BST
Army, my bedroom temperature has been above 27 degree for the past four weeks. No chace of air conditionting. The summers are frigging muggy up here as well. All the polar bears are drowning. It's so sad.
--------

Btw army, assume the position...a great call on Jason. I didn't follow it. Took a mild loss on the Traveller.
Report map August 5, 2016 8:51 PM BST
where are you?
Report map August 5, 2016 8:52 PM BST
well you have all the mugs saying about global warming..like dicraprio then going off on their private jets
Report betting_masta August 5, 2016 8:53 PM BST
why would the producers want Whale out? he's far more likely to cause good telly rather than Bovey who so far has fallen in love with a girl way out of his league and necked on with a lady boy but apart from that he's boring. you leave James Whale in there much longer and he'll actually go crazy and start ripping the place down in his dressing gown.
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 8:54 PM BST
blimey finnish, didn't realise that..sounds hotter than my pad
fan on full all night here atm
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 8:55 PM BST
unlcuky on hughie too, nothing innit at the end...without major help last few days
jason would of struggled
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 8:56 PM BST
BM

whale looks bored already, he has his moments then goes to bed
Report betting_masta August 5, 2016 9:02 PM BST
that sounds like my life. i just hope he walks out in his gown
Report betting_masta August 5, 2016 9:03 PM BST
are we going to see an olmighty drift? i'm guessing Whale will be evens in 40 minutes time
Report armagnac August 5, 2016 9:05 PM BST
lol hopefully BM, join us on the live thread
Report map August 5, 2016 9:08 PM BST
jesus some of these people are vile, how can people really like this bear loser
Report betting_masta August 5, 2016 9:12 PM BST
rule #1 never argue with a geordie girl
Report map August 5, 2016 9:18 PM BST
why? they're just thicky mouthy council trash
Report map August 5, 2016 9:18 PM BST
i wouldn't because I couldn;t be bothered, not because they're right
Report map August 5, 2016 9:18 PM BST
I'll happily let idiots think they're right, rather than listen to some idiot - then again i cant see a situation where I'd ever have to speak to anyone like this
Report map August 5, 2016 9:20 PM BST
grant look at the ten pin bowling, there's literally a pick match - who wins
Report mach August 8, 2016 1:36 AM BST
on the other hand army started this train to try to sting people, I posted warnings along the way
Report mach August 8, 2016 1:37 AM BST

Aug 5, 2016 -- 7:03PM, mach wrote:


I would agree since neither are great housemates, the value was with Whale to go, many things could have happened between monday night and friday night to shake things up, I just don't think anything has happened, so I now think Bovey is now the value to go, just because something is odds on, it does not stop it being value.Glory hunting getting a big price winner is great fun, but you need to pick them carefully.Good luck whale backers, I acknowledge it's not a certainty that Bovey goes, just likely.


tt

Report mach August 8, 2016 1:37 AM BST

Aug 5, 2016 -- 6:32PM, mach wrote:


WarningDon't drink the koolaid, this train is heading for Jonestown


tt

Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed August 8, 2016 1:40 AM BST
So that's the idea... Majority ramping the poor house bet, while one takes a counter position to keep the ramps going?
Report mach August 8, 2016 1:43 AM BST
there was genuine debate about where the value was
I would never start a thread saying this or that would happen, I don't seek to influence the market, just debate the merits of any point of view
Report five leaves left August 8, 2016 1:50 AM BST
It was a bit of fun BB3. As you can see from the generally jokey nature of most posts.

Army thought he could flip the market but flipped tonight instead
Report timbuctooth August 8, 2016 1:51 AM BST
I imagine most of us thought Bovey was going.But also that the value lay with Whale. I went for the value, laid Bovey at 1.16, and lost. I`m guessing most of us laid him, assuming/knowing it would be another `value loser`, but also knowing `value` is the only long term winner.
Report BB 3rd Cousin twice removed August 8, 2016 1:53 AM BST
It sort of backfired on your gang in the summer. There you were ramping Jason, while not realising how much support he actually had. Laugh
Report five leaves left August 8, 2016 1:56 AM BST
I wished I'd carried on watching and not given up after about a week as I'm sure I'd have had a nice win on Jason Sad
Report mach August 8, 2016 2:03 AM BST
jason was a winner for me BB
Report armagnac August 8, 2016 6:16 AM BST
yep, the idea was for everyone to get 3/1
we all crash the price and sell back at odds on, once the market snowballed
funny thing is my av was 11/4 and the market never for one minute believed whale was gonna go.
edit didn't help much, the baying mob tried

most on reality got 4/1 and 100/30 and had free bets or made something
i actually lost coz i didn't play the High street, just betfair

whoever listened to me got a better price than i did, some sting that was


Special Bets > Celebrity Big Brother 2016 : CBB: 1st Eviction    Showing 1 - 4 of 4 Selections
Selection    Odds    Stake(£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/loss(£)
Grant Bovey    1.30    200.00    Back    05-Aug-16 21:40    60.00
Grant Bovey    1.35    290.85    Lay    05-Aug-16 14:25    -101.72
James Whale    *    3.77    398.27    Back         -398.27
James Whale    *    3.67    404.50    Lay         404.50
*Average odds: On  Off    Back subtotal:    -338.27
Lay subtotal:    302.78
Market subtotal:    -35.49
Commission :    0.00
Net Market Total:    -35.49
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