*** Eurovision Grand Final IR Thread ****

Bails calls it right again

"This is Swedens collectoin of jury ranks, hosed up with the jury. I suspect insiders knew this hence the 2.5 into 1.8 price crash, I know plenty will disagree but I don't think insiders concern themselves with side markets when they can make tens of thousands on the main one."

That's a good point about the side markets, we shouldn't be surprised if they're not affected.

However loads of people would have been smashing Sweden's price down after the vote reveal order came out. And, unlike us, insiders had to also do their job on the night and wouldn't have been able to be stuck to the BF screen. The only surprise is the many hours the price stayed in the 2.4s and 2.5s.

i wonder how italy would have done had they competed in the semi finals?

Haven't looked over the results in detail,but a few observations......

Amazed how it was the juries which won the contest for Sweden,rather than the televote....really didn't see that coming.Italy can feel justifiably aggrieved having topped the televote,although I do think the draw played a factor in that.Interesting to look at the Scandinavian voting results for Italy......

Finland ....Jury 19th. Televote  3rd
Iceland.    Jury 11th.  Televote. 1st
Norway.    Jury 10th.  Televote 4th
Denmark.  Jury. 8th.   Televote. 5th
Sweden.    Jury 5th.   Televote 3rd

The usual shenanigans between Azer & Armenia....all 12 judges scoring the other country last on jury score,and both televotes last also.

And finally the UK televote.....1st Lithuania 2nd Poland .....Nigel Farage must be fuming.

A couple of interesting points.

Last place isn't bad even if not the best, for Italy to do so well, especially coming 2 behind Russia.

If the song is powerful it can overcome dodgy direction. The Italian staging was very static and uninteresting compared to Sweden and Russia and there was some editing mistakes and also the singers missed cameras.

May 24, 2015 -- 8:33AM, elise wrote:

i wonder how italy would have done had they competed in the semi finals?

Wouldn't have made a difference as they won the pv anyway. I have come to the conclusion that there is a big downside to automatic qualification. Agree with what someone else posted elsewhere...no chance to connect with the viewers and build up momentum. Familiarity leads to song sales which leads to votes. Of course without automatic qualification most of the Big 5 would qualify as often as the Czechs.

Why don't they just perform in the semis but not get voted on/judged?

UK jury result for Sweden in Semi Final 2,compared to the jury result for them in the final is also strange.

The usual shenanigans between Azer & Armenia....all 12 judges scoring the other country last on jury score,and both televotes last also.

________________________

To be fair, can you blame anyone for scoring either of these songs poorly!!

Interesting that the bellwether countries of Latvia and UK both gave the winner 12 points. If either ever voted first what betting fun......

2 disqualified countries votes I see...still half asleep so don't yet know if any ramifications re result?

I said yesterday Latvia is your friend.  five years on trot and 4/5 for UK. 

The Guardians of Fair Play - Latvia

Yes good spot

Azer actually got to number 1 in the Armenian iTunes a week or two ago. Maybe some kind of funny PR business.

Not disqualified then?

.http://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/eurovision-2015-votes-disqualified-montenegro-5751425

May 24, 2015 -- 8:56AM, George Bailey wrote:

May 24, 2015 --  8:33AM, elise wrote:i wonder how italy would have done had they competed in the semi finals?Wouldn't have made a difference as they won the pv anyway. I have come to the conclusion that there is a big downside to automatic qualification. Agree with what someone else posted elsewhere...no chance to connect with the viewers and build up momentum. Familiarity leads to song sales which leads to votes. Of course without automatic qualification most of the Big 5 would qualify as often as the Czechs.Why don't they just perform in the semis but not get voted on/judged?

Lena romped home without a semi performance.

But I'm sure the SF momentum point is valid.

I didn't say it was fatal to chances Cider...just detrimental.

Cider just likes to keep me lucid...even when I am already

Germany's invisibility didn't help them this year

But Satellite had loads of momentum from my recollection, Lena was the talk of the contest. If Italy had taken part in a semi, the result would have been the same.

We can take learnings after the result, obviously, but there's often way too much overthinking and backfitting imv.

You only have to look at itunes to see the importance of visibility. Sweden jumped after semi and Italy after final. True it wouldn't have made a difference re Italy but we are talking generalities. And this isn't backfitting someone made the point about momentum on here before the final...and they are right.

...and isn't learning from results what keeps us ahead collectively?

It's backfitting because you're fitting the result to your hypothesis. So Italy wins, and you would say the semi momentum thing is a red herring?

iTunes is related to the pv. Italy 'won' the pv. It was beaten because it didn't win the juries over.

Nah

So to be clear ..you are saying not being in a semi has no impact whatsoever in any circumstances on any country in any year on the size of their pv?

My view is that it doesn't have a material impact on the result.

We will agree to disagree though the evidence says different imo. There is a direct link between itunes and result and it has been proved visibility increases itune ratings...you are saying chicken and egg I'd rather say egg....anyway Henry agrees and he's the dog's bollox on here really.

There is no evidence.

If you're saying a semi performance increases iTunes sales before the final, of course it does.

If you're saying itunes sales influence the result, of course they don't.

Some people may correlate iTunes sales to the pv. And if you use that measure you'd have to factor in a non semi performing country. But that's another subject entirely.

I can't agree that not having a level playing field makes no difference whatsoever...the only question should be how much difference it makes. Even you agree because you say it has no "material" impact which is something more than "no" impact. At the margins in any given year it could therefore make a difference. Can you lucidify and confirm you are saying "no" difference ever?

At the risk of stretching the analogy latecomers to BB generally do less well...and would someone win XF if they missed the first 6 weeks?

In a way it helps the shrewdies as we have to factor all this in.

May 24, 2015 -- 10:38AM, George Bailey wrote:

I can't agree that not having a level playing field makes no difference whatsoever...the only question should be how much difference it makes. Even you agree because you say it has no "material" impact which is something more than "no" impact. At the margins in any given year it could therefore make a difference. Can you lucidify and confirm you are saying "no" difference ever?At the risk of stretching the analogy latecomers to BB generally do less well...and would someone win XF if they missed the first 6 weeks?

Eurovision shouldn't be compared to xf or bb. The vast majority of voters are seeing the songs and performers for the first time in the final. It would be remiss of me to say that a semi performance makes no difference whatsoever, in all likelihood it does, but not a material one. Exactly how much of a difference is impossible to quantify.

lol my bet came in

serbia to be top 10

f00king crawled over the line Laugh

_____________

Was my favourite moment of the night when I was sweating on my Serbia Top 10 bet and then thanks to the balls up Georgia came on last to vote and could't vote for itself to scupper that 10th spot. 

my angle was not so much the pv being influenced by semis as the jury vote, as in either the jury members feel that they are more familiar with the semi final songs or subconciously semi final songs feel as though they have earned the right to be in the final perhaps?

the jury are making their votes after the dress rehearsal, (my understanding) which immediately follows the semis, so even though the pre qualifiers get practice time the judges have had more chance to assess the semi finalists and see them in a competitive light

we can gauge pv from downloads and hits on various sites but is human nature in the jury voting slightly different because they are closer to the action / competitors maybe even getting the chance to meet and talk to them off stage thus changing their voting?

one to ponder for another year though, wd winners last night

Lena romped home without a semi performance.

______

She was the outlier. 

2010 - UK finished bottom; Spain near the bottom and France underperformed in mid-table despite trading as a dangerous outsider (in the 30s IIRC) on the final night.

Generally the same pattern (other than 2012) with most of the big five struggling year after year.  Hell, even the might Sweden struggled in 2013 when they didn't have a SF to go through.

The Big Five should gang up on the EBU and DEMAND to be in the semis.

Yup! I felt Sweden wouldn't get good jury votes and felt very sweet on it now winning the public vote. Seems the 3rd most popular song won by 50+ points, which is quite a margin, all thanks to the jury! To me the market knew!

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The betting market was so well tuned this year.  Got the 1-2-3 bang on (a-la-2012).  The fact no patriotic money coming in on UK stunned me.  2010-14 UK were an auto lay for me every year.  Honestly thought buying at 90 was easy money when UK came down under 20 at some point.  Market completely knew it was a dud.  Took me two months to accept it. 

Top Ten market was well tuned by the end.  No Georgia bombing at 1.5 (2013) France at 1.1 (2011)

All of what elise said at foot of Page 29 is bang on.  Auto qualifying is a death knell for winning and maybe why we never have countries winning back to back any more

The market acted like Sweden couldn't really lose. Absolutely convinced insiders were rife and they knew Sweden had hacked up with the jury vote leaving them pretty much unstoppable.

Why is automatic qualification a bad thing? Sateillite and Grande Amoure never performed in the semis yet both won the public vote convincingly.

All we can learn is that the market was rife with insiders. Most people on this forum believed that Sweden were not going to win the public vote and many thought they wouldn't be liked by the juries (based on copyright issues and him being a bit of a plonker). However, the market acted like defeat was all but impossible and whenever he drifted he came straight back in again, almost like people knew his jury backing made him all but unstoppable.

By this I mean I would eat my hat if the market acted the same had there been no jury voting. I strongly believe Sweden would have drifted to 4.0+ and Russia and Italy would have been sub 4.0.

Glad Russia didn't win. Not that I don't like the song or anything but her performance last night was not good at all, she looked like she was having a panic attack and her emotions were all over the place, would have been a travesty for her to win when there were so many flawless other performances.

Latvia and Belgium can hold their heads high. Loic especially, he comes across as really struggling with his English/struggling to sing in the language with his accent, so for him to be performing this week to such a high standard and achieve that placing for a country with little to no voting bloc is incredible

Why is automatic qualification a bad thing? Satellite and Grande Amoure never performed in the semis yet both won the public vote
________

That's just two songs out of 30+ since 2010.  Add Italy 2011 to the mix and you have 3 Top 3s out of 34 acts since 2010.

It's the fact that year after year France, UK and Spain are in the bottom few.  Even a pretty decent known act like Cascada finished about 18th.  Decent act like Blue with a solid song finished 11th - surely Top Ten with double exposure.

Don't buy it at all. Italy romped home last night by a distance all over Europe and most had never heard it before!

Good call re Belgium, flemstar.

I'll throw Israel into the hat as well for an act that did well despite being friendless.  No qualifiers since 2010; generally disliked country politically; an act that had potential to be looked down on yet a nice payout at 5/2 or better for Top Ten.

Don't buy it at all. Italy romped home last night by a distance all over Europe and most had never heard it before!
_____

Look at the bigger picture

How did France, Spain, Austria Germany and UK do?   All terribly

Look at France 2012 - great song.....but it bombed.

One could argue that it's due to complacency with the auto-qulaifiers. My understanding is that Germany were fed up with repeatedly doing badly and put a lot of effort into Lena's year. Funnily enough, they won as a result having pre-qualified.

UK could have got Blue to tour each and every persons house individually and they'd still not of faired better. I think the greatest shame of all is that a song voted the winner clearly by the masses has been toppled because Sweden had innovative visuals against 3 people with cracking voices who didn't have any fancy visuals.

It's crazy a song like Italy which has the backing of the masses basically goes into a final with no chance of winning.

All the results up on wiki now
I see Finland were 10th with the public in the 1st semi. One solitary point from the juries

"Look at the bigger picture

How did France, Spain, Austria Germany and UK do?   All terribly

Look at France 2012 - great song.....but it bombed. "

Thats not the bigger picture. The bigger picture is to look at the songs individually. The UK send garbage year on year , automatic qualifiers would mean nothing.  Spain will never win it singing in their native language and with little diaspora.

The best songs sent this year from the auto-qualifiers were Italy and Australia and they both hit the top ten.

Look at Italys PV, they could of sent the best song of all time and got 12 from each country and still not won and the market knew it.

Italy hardly drifted though. There's clearly some inside money but it's hugely exaggerated by some on here
Sweden would have been a back @1.1 if you knew the jury vote and Italy 1000

Wise words you are a pathetic sexist , how the betfair police tolerate your scummy remarks is beyond me.

Think we strongly disagree. If a select few know and are in collusion (the official result is known before they go to the first set of votes which in itself should suspend the market) then you'd sit that and hammer the Sweden price and then take your foot off the gas, see it sing moderately badly and then hammer it again, then hype the close runners and then smash Sweden some more, it's certainly how I'd play it. If no one knew the jury vote then Sweden would of gone 3.5+ easily. The reaction on social media and in the audience after Italy sang was up there with diversity and their price crumbled, Italy went out from 6.0. A select few imho DEFINITELY knew Sweden were unstoppable and hence they were odds on for most of the night despite everything pointing to them not winning the PV.

And as an insider you wouldn't:

A) go laying close rivals for tens of thousands
B) play side markets and pick of good value bets

Both those would make you look suspicious. All you would do is print tens of thousands of free money on Sweden and let everyone else in the market push Russia and Italy in. Without jury votes Russia and Italy would of been a similar price to Sweden, someone knew they were unstoppable imho.

WP on Israel btw, great shout and great tune

I think the Sweden price move could just as easily be explained by it being well top on iTunes and the RO of the results
Most of the drop in price came after that

Cheers. I did somehow manage to turn a small profit in the OR but Israel top 10 the one decent result for me

It's my favourite market, and I have to say this was a vintage year for music. Thought Israel, Belgium and others all entered great tunes. From a betting medium I would love to go back to pre 2009 with no juries as I think it's betting on a market where half the votes are already cast and known to a select few isn't ideal. To my mind Sweden got the highest jury vote ever, and was being backed as such, fearlessly despite clearly struggling to win a PV.

If a dumbo like me can predict a MANS-SLIDE on Betfair mid morning on the day of the final basically done on the voting order then it stands to reason thousands of others will have done the same.  I guess there will always be some who could potentially use the inside info but to me the bulk of it was common sense public money

It's a TV show and the only act (and I use the word act and not song) people (not ESC fans but the once a year viewers) will remember from this in 4 years from now is Sweden and the stick man....just like Conchita's beard.  It was the iconic moment and the worthy winner.   

Had he performed last like Italy, Mans would have won the PV. The juries merely corrected that imbalance

Is food for thought anyway! Just wish it was public votes only as would obviously make any threat of insiders more dampened instead a select few go into the final knowing half the votes and that Sweden were unstoppable!

From a betting POV and as a viewer I think pure PV is far better

I always feared the juries would scupper the chances of Lena Thankfully they didn't. Though she only she scrapped home with the juries, while she p1ssed the PV

As you also say RMB. It makes it far more difficult for the insiders, if there are any, to make hay

May 24, 2015 -- 12:50PM, honestcl wrote:

If a dumbo like me can predict a MANS-SLIDE on Betfair mid morning on the day of the final basically done on the voting order then it stands to reason thousands of others will have done the same.  I guess there will always be some who could potentially use the inside info but to me the bulk of it was common sense public moneyIt's a TV show and the only act (and I use the word act and not song) people (not ESC fans but the once a year viewers) will remember from this in 4 years from now is Sweden and the stick man....just like Conchita's beard.  It was the iconic moment and the worthy winner.   Had he performed last like Italy, Mans would have won the PV. The juries merely corrected that imbalance

If it was so memorable it would have won the public vote, as Conchita did with the same draw

I always feel sorry for the insiders. They`ve got the crucial knowledge, but how do they play it? Keep on swipinhg everything that appears, at ever lower prices, OR, sit back and let the market push Sweden out as you continuously nibble away at the much bigger prices. All the while knowing that the longer it goes, the more insiders there are who are likely to jump in, all of a sudden, and take everything that you`ve been trying to snaffle? Decisions, decisions...

Conchita didn't just win the vote. She hacked up in it. The jury vote was much closer
I can't see how this system is sustainable. It will surely lead to more countries withdrawing

lol don't feel too sorry for them tim

Fig voted for Lithuania

Can`t help myself, fll, I like to know my money`s gone to a good, and deserving, home.

Surely the RO of votes would of been similar if it was just PV. Sweden were favs, and won their semi, and were on top of itunes, so they'd have weighted it to late Sweden votes no matter what. However if it was a similar voting order and just PV there is NO WAY that the market would of acted as it did last night, urgo sum, a select few knew and were backing Sweden as if they were unstoppable (which they were).

Hopefully one day we get back to pure PV :)

If it ever does get back to 100% televote then you will have countries like Poland and Azerbaijan automatically qualifying into the final every year and always ending up top 10 and even top 5 in final every year. Then should this happen there will be people complaining and wanting the Juries back to stop the diaspora voting.

14th and 15th Poland and Azer in PV this year Corby.

Indeed. They've run out of free sim cards in Azer

May 24, 2015 -- 1:07PM, bearcub wrote:

Fig voted for Lithuania

I didn't vote at all. Lithuania did become a little bit of a guilty pleasure though. The blonde was very cute

Good points on here.  IT crossed my mind that in this Pop Idol X Factor era it's all getting homogenised.  Hence three runaway leaders from start to finish pretty much.  Didnt leave many crumbs for the bottom half.  Used to be that all countries would get to double figures pretty much but 4 or 5 single figures and 2 nul points, has given us an all or nothing sharing out of the points.

Sweden, Russia and Italy all hoovered up in their usual allies but picked up plenty of 'bonus' points.  That wouldn't have happened in the 2010-2013 voting system where juries picked a top Ten and all others being treated as jt 11th.  Nice to see non-traditional songs like Latvia and Belgium perform admirably but Finland for instance would have at least had a sniff of qualifying.  I suspect somewhere that even UK appealed to a few individual jury members and under the old system we might have scraped a few more points.

Shame on anyone not voting.  People died to ensure we could vote!  Or was that General Elections? 

(My redial button worn out from dialling 90915 22 52 03 btw!!) 

The UK number?

"If a dumbo like me can predict a MANS-SLIDE on Betfair mid morning on the day of the final basically done on the voting order then it stands to reason thousands of others will have done the same.  I guess there will always be some who could potentially use the inside info but to me the bulk of it was common sense public money"

Exactly. I don't know why some people think every correct market movement has to be insiders (even though they may well have been present). It was obvious to many Mans was overpriced after the vote reveal order was publicised. I'm more surprised by the strength of layers in the 2.4s and 2.5s.

"Had he performed last like Italy, Mans would have won the PV. The juries merely corrected that imbalance"

Yup, I agree with this too.

I’m surprised people argue that the SF’s don’t benefit an act.

1  They get experience of the actual gig. No rehearsal can give that.

2  People who voted for them in the semi have some emotional investment. They want “their” act to do well.

3  Itunes etc gets people talking about the act – publicity and interest.

4  Songs that are instant to some listeners are not to others. Sweden and Russia are not my type of song but I appreciated them more on second listen. 1st listen passed right over me. This is a common phenomenon in music. (It works the other side as well – a song loved can on repeated (many) listens bore, and then on further listens irritate.)

Australia smashed Belgium in the Jury vote. I'd prefer to trust jury vote than public going by that.
Portugal gave Australia 0 points if my memory serves me right.
Think they also gave Spain very little last year.
I'm starting to think all Portuguese are tone deaf......
And judging by the last 2 stinkbombs they sent, I could be right!
Georgia's calculation that Armenia was the best song in the competition is a joke.
I reckon if Guy had not tried to dress like a Granda, he might have got 4th....
Iceland sounded great off the video, but LIVE, Dear God she was awful....I'd say that surprised a few not qualifying & getting just 14 pts.
I thought the Russian performance on the night was very weak for the verses.
Can the person who backed Finland at 3/1 to win the contest outright please reveal themselves?

Finland was robbed by poncey juries. Qualified on the televote.

The juries get it right more often than the public, no?
Finland had no business being anywhere other than LAST in everything. Total shyte.

I'd much rather trust the public than a bunch of music 'professionals'. Some in the Dave Arch band ffs
Finland was a far better example of it's genre than most of the songs in the contest and deserved to go through

As for Australia and Belgium. I'm astonished Australia finished so high after watching the final. I thought it was one of the poorest songs in the 1st half

#someone

Måns No 1 iTunes in 20 European countries.

UK best is 14 in Belarus.

Australia was a great song. Deffo a Top 5, and got what it deserved.
Guy's wardrobe manager should be sacked.

May 24, 2015 -- 8:03PM, Henry VIII wrote:

Måns No 1 iTunes in 20 European countries.UK best is 14 in Belarus.

Quality not quantity

Sweden was and is the standout tune.  The reality is that the writing was on the wall from the moment the juries voted at MF.  The fact it's No.1 in 20 countries tells you that once again the right song was crowned champion.  Just annoyed with myself that I waited until the day of the Final before finally committing to back it. 

Austria's win from 200+ last year had me (and many others) looking for the rough diamond in the pack but the winner was staring in the face all along.

The reality is that the writing was on the wall from the moment the juries voted at MF.

Its all about the maths

George Bailey
14 Mar 15 23:55
Joined: 04 Apr 10
| Topic/replies: 47,460 | Blogger: George Bailey's blog
Homophobegate apart bare stats are very good for Mans

        juries average    pv    esc
2010        4.66    20.1%        not final
2011        7.36    23.70%           3rd
2012        10.36    32.70%           1st
2013        8.27    15.80%           14th
2014        11.09    25.80%            3rd
2015        11.09    35.10%

What DID happen to homophobegate? Had a minor impact on my early bets on him.

Its all about the maths Wink

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Best lesson I ever learnt was your breakdown of Loreen in 2012.  This year I properly put 'the maths' into practice.  Lithuania QF / Macedonia QF LAY / Ireland QF LAY / Sweden win.

About time I got round to examining how Montenegro qualified.  The only one where doing the homework cost me money.  I liked the song but voting allies were terrible for it.  Knez did well there.

...and Armenia to qualify of course...mathematically speaking

Yes but I have to admit that despite me having an Armenia-Russia-Greece 1-2-3 on the vote strength I swerved on Armenia QF as the song was THAT bad.  The fact it only finished 7th with that body of friends helping out tells you all you need to know about the song!  Still, the maths was right and backing them resulted in profit to reward anyone doing the homework

That said, guess which song was going round in my head as I put my head on the pillow that night!  LOL.

Yes but I have to admit that despite me having an Armenia-Russia-Greece 1-2-3 on the vote strength I swerved on Armenia QF as the song was THAT bad.  The fact it only finished 7th with that body of friends helping out tells you all you need to know about the song!  Still, the maths was right and backing them resulted in profit to reward anyone doing the homework

That said, guess which song was going round in my head as I put my head on the pillow that night!  LOL.

was strange which songs I was waking up with each morning...kept changing...I actually think it was a pretty good year with 3 or 4 that could have won without much disagreement.

Belgium made #31 on the uk midweek chart. Sounded pretty cool on the radio on my way home as well