Specials
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Hi all! I did some analysis on the Eurovision markets and I think I found a nice value bet. Finland to win Eurovision 2015! As some of you may know, Finland is represented by a group of middle aged men with down syndrome. Although their music is not sweet on the years they won overwhelmingly in their country.
Why do I think Finland is a value bet:
1. Eurovision is NOT a song contest. We have seen it so many times before its silly to still call it that way. Eurovision is a voting contest. People caring enough to vote pays a bigger role.
2. Last year, and some time ago when Ukraine won, the countries were represented by participants strongly supported by the LTGB community. People that are passionate about the song, artist, and what he/she represents are the ones that do vote. In this case, you can imagine that all the people with disabilities in Europe (around 80 million people in the EU alone!), their parents, partners, family, will be very passionate about what the group represents, how they overcame difficulties and still make music and vote Finland! Generally the group from Finland is very likeable and its positive what they do therefore, they will get votes even from casual watchers that support what they stand for.
They will also get votes from people enjoying punk music, and votes from people that just want to have a laugh.
3. All major bookmakers offer Finland at around half of what you can find on Betfair! Even Pinaccle the odds experts price Finland at 6,55! They are on par with Estonia with most bookmakers (estonia is below 5 on betfair). Do the markets on betfair know something more? I doubt it. The markets are way too illiquid to tell anything for certain. It seems to me that somebody bet big on Finland when the group was announced (its visible on the charts), and now is stuck with a very large position in an illiquid market and wants to cover some of that position - a great opportunity!
So overall I think if you can get a bet at anything above 8 is worth considering. Markets like that are always full of opportunity, as people think its the most beautiful song that wins, when in reality its the song that makes people passionate enough to vote that wins. 80+ million super passionate voters will do just that hopefully! I personally think value bets like that are very rare so I’ll keep most of my bet until the final, unless I can get out at around 2.5 before the final. Drinks are on me if that happens! :)
Why do I think Finland is a value bet:
1. Eurovision is NOT a song contest. We have seen it so many times before its silly to still call it that way. Eurovision is a voting contest. People caring enough to vote pays a bigger role.
2. Last year, and some time ago when Ukraine won, the countries were represented by participants strongly supported by the LTGB community. People that are passionate about the song, artist, and what he/she represents are the ones that do vote. In this case, you can imagine that all the people with disabilities in Europe (around 80 million people in the EU alone!), their parents, partners, family, will be very passionate about what the group represents, how they overcame difficulties and still make music and vote Finland! Generally the group from Finland is very likeable and its positive what they do therefore, they will get votes even from casual watchers that support what they stand for.
They will also get votes from people enjoying punk music, and votes from people that just want to have a laugh.
3. All major bookmakers offer Finland at around half of what you can find on Betfair! Even Pinaccle the odds experts price Finland at 6,55! They are on par with Estonia with most bookmakers (estonia is below 5 on betfair). Do the markets on betfair know something more? I doubt it. The markets are way too illiquid to tell anything for certain. It seems to me that somebody bet big on Finland when the group was announced (its visible on the charts), and now is stuck with a very large position in an illiquid market and wants to cover some of that position - a great opportunity!
So overall I think if you can get a bet at anything above 8 is worth considering. Markets like that are always full of opportunity, as people think its the most beautiful song that wins, when in reality its the song that makes people passionate enough to vote that wins. 80+ million super passionate voters will do just that hopefully! I personally think value bets like that are very rare so I’ll keep most of my bet until the final, unless I can get out at around 2.5 before the final. Drinks are on me if that happens! :)
Show More
If this was decided on just televotes they might have a chance, a very slim 1
Their jury score will be low extremely low imo, the song is only 1.27 long and is just bad noise
I'd rather lay them for top 10 than back them to win
Their jury score will be low extremely low imo, the song is only 1.27 long and is just bad noise
I'd rather lay them for top 10 than back them to win
Sure, they got a very very low score from jury in Finland, but exploded from last to first after the vote! Dont you think that there is at least 15% probability something like that can happen in the final as well? If you think there is a 15% probability the odds should be closer to 7 :) remember 80+ million voters!
Who entered at 7s? Any blog post? I think it could be Peter Webb as he wrote about this on his blog. I entered at 10s, cant believe I could get that price :D
Who entered at 7s? Any blog post? I think it could be Peter Webb as he wrote about this on his blog. I entered at 10s, cant believe I could get that price :D
Finland will not win. There will be a very lot of voters far and wide who have made acquaintance with these types of people who are so so sweet. Please ask yourself if you could seriously expect to draw if you were to back a paralympian against a fully fit olympic athlete. Several if not more will be very offended indeed at this entry. I can fully understand them.
This group deserve applause after applause from their millions of sympathetic supporters.I do not find that this entry will be in good taste for many people. And that includes myself. If the UK delegates though that this type of song would win, why did they not get together the best singers from the Paralympics. No its not for us. However, they are very talented and fair play to them.
I rather like them and the song and they are there on merit for me
Far better than most of the sh1te countries send
It's a far more authentic song of it's genre than that Hardrock Hallelujah nonsense that won
Then again my taste in music isn't generally in line with the public across Europe, so unfortunately they'll be relying on the novelty/sympathy vote
Given the song is a very acquired taste, I'm not sure that will be enough for a decent pv
As others have said the juries are likely to rate it very badly
Far better than most of the sh1te countries send
It's a far more authentic song of it's genre than that Hardrock Hallelujah nonsense that won
Then again my taste in music isn't generally in line with the public across Europe, so unfortunately they'll be relying on the novelty/sympathy vote
Given the song is a very acquired taste, I'm not sure that will be enough for a decent pv
As others have said the juries are likely to rate it very badly
Plus the lead singer is an ugly fooker. Not a sweet old granny
Everyone loves their gran 
A punk rocker who looks like an alcoholic tramp, generally less popular
A punk rocker who looks like an alcoholic tramp, generally less popular
It's a weird one, could do very well or badly. The juries may not be so against it, it's played well, and expands the contest genres.
It's gone down to my second fav now. After the UK.
It's gone down to my second fav now. After the UK.
Personally I absolutely hate it
As a song it absolutely sucks. If it wasn't for the fact that the four lads have learning disabilities it would be 999/1 imo
The public may well give them some sympathy but I don't see how professional music judges will.
The fact that the song last as long as fig sex life is a huge negative too.
For the first minute the public will be thinking WTF and 27 seconds later it's finished
The lead singer looks like someone you wouldn't sit next to on a bus too
As a song it absolutely sucks. If it wasn't for the fact that the four lads have learning disabilities it would be 999/1 imo
The public may well give them some sympathy but I don't see how professional music judges will.
The fact that the song last as long as fig sex life is a huge negative too.
For the first minute the public will be thinking WTF and 27 seconds later it's finished
The lead singer looks like someone you wouldn't sit next to on a bus too
It's a shocker. That's a good thing in ESC. Like Lordi with the monster costumes.
at least 2 digs at me in thatI really like it
Far better than a lot of British Punk music of the early 80's. I've even started listening to some of their other stuff. One of them plays the trumpet (badly), so there could be a 1m30s trumpet solo it lasts 3 mins
They certainly have the possibility of expanding it and making it even better.
I just hope they don't lose its purity of essence. I like the 1min 31s version as it stands.
I just hope they don't lose its purity of essence. I like the 1min 31s version as it stands.
I agree H
Perfect as it is
I don't think it has much chance of winning though
Perfect as it is
I don't think it has much chance of winning though
Again with no favouritism involved, I`m with bear on this one.
Foty odds
Bear 1.01
Hems 34
Fig 1000
I've blocked everyone else
Bear 1.01
Hems 34
Fig 1000
I've blocked everyone else
Taken from the rules for FOTY;
So, what will I be looking for? Well, there`s the obvious: bribes and flattery.
For the last two months, bear`s been playing a blinder on that front. You, fll? Well, you ensure more nightmares, with `Kill A Hippy`! Don`t know about bear`s and Henry`s prices, but that 1000 for you looks about right...
So, what will I be looking for? Well, there`s the obvious: bribes and flattery.
For the last two months, bear`s been playing a blinder on that front. You, fll? Well, you ensure more nightmares, with `Kill A Hippy`! Don`t know about bear`s and Henry`s prices, but that 1000 for you looks about right...
^^^ hemsby, not Henry
I don`t mind admitting it, but I`m dreading the prospect of having to announce my winner. I`m really hoping that someone does enough to make it an obvious choice, one that even the other hopefuls will acknowledge as the only fair result. Hemsby had it easy last year, no year-long pressure, as we didn`t know there was a contest, that we were being judged.
I don`t mind admitting it, but I`m dreading the prospect of having to announce my winner. I`m really hoping that someone does enough to make it an obvious choice, one that even the other hopefuls will acknowledge as the only fair result. Hemsby had it easy last year, no year-long pressure, as we didn`t know there was a contest, that we were being judged.
I really should `refresh` before posting. Or speed up my typing..
I was just demonstrating that there's plenty of dreadful punk 
You were encouraging people to kill hippies 
Night all
I'm off to bed dreaming of Emmanuel singing the National Anthem at the Villa v Reading F.A. cup final
Night all
I'm off to bed dreaming of Emmanuel singing the National Anthem at the Villa v Reading F.A. cup final
Interview in English with some of them. They are going to be the talk of Vienna.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AZnp8sHD-E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AZnp8sHD-E
Yes they are going to be the talk.
Im pretty sure their image, performance, looks, even the lenght of the song itself will be completely different and much more professional. They are practicing daily, they are getting support from professionals in every single aspect. So it will look, in a completely different way. If they come up with something clever and emotional its 100% the voting winner.
Now regarding the jury, it depends, its enough for some of them, having an emotional response, giving the lowest amount of points, and we have a winner.
Right now the favourites are Italy - song is very good but sang in Italian - not good. Not sure it touches people enough to care and vote.
Estonia - song is very good but again its just another generic love song. Will it touch enough people to care and vote?
So all in all, the probabilities of Finland are much much better than the odds at betfair would suggest. When they will be the talk in the media come may, the odds will probably be 5-6, and even at that price they could represent very good value, if their performance will be sharper - which its almost certain to be.
Im pretty sure their image, performance, looks, even the lenght of the song itself will be completely different and much more professional. They are practicing daily, they are getting support from professionals in every single aspect. So it will look, in a completely different way. If they come up with something clever and emotional its 100% the voting winner.
Now regarding the jury, it depends, its enough for some of them, having an emotional response, giving the lowest amount of points, and we have a winner.
Right now the favourites are Italy - song is very good but sang in Italian - not good. Not sure it touches people enough to care and vote.
Estonia - song is very good but again its just another generic love song. Will it touch enough people to care and vote?
So all in all, the probabilities of Finland are much much better than the odds at betfair would suggest. When they will be the talk in the media come may, the odds will probably be 5-6, and even at that price they could represent very good value, if their performance will be sharper - which its almost certain to be.
Their an established band though tim
They're not suddenly going to turn into the Led Zeppelin
The song and how they perform it won't change
It's irrelevant anyway
All that matters if whether the public and juries get behind them, despite the song. Altho personally I like it, it's clear from every poll that most hate it
They're not suddenly going to turn into the Led Zeppelin
The song and how they perform it won't change
It's irrelevant anyway
All that matters if whether the public and juries get behind them, despite the song. Altho personally I like it, it's clear from every poll that most hate it
Dont know if there are crossed wires, I was referring to latviaaa`s post.
I`m a bit of a softy, and will probably be crying emotional as well as financial tears if they win, a great story. With anything less ear-blasting, they would have justified favouritism. One of three serious reds, (but at least at around 7.0), and the only one of those three I might back, at anywhere near their current prices.
I`m a bit of a softy, and will probably be crying emotional as well as financial tears if they win, a great story. With anything less ear-blasting, they would have justified favouritism. One of three serious reds, (but at least at around 7.0), and the only one of those three I might back, at anywhere near their current prices.
So was I tim
It's the emotion that will win it for them. The song is the song and I can't see it being improved. If you believe it needs improving
It's the emotion that will win it for them. The song is the song and I can't see it being improved. If you believe it needs improving
I think the sympathy vote is more likely to go with Poland. The official video has had its critics because of this but youve got to be a bit hard hearted not to have a sympathy for somebody who was once dancing on TV in her twenties and through a motor accident aged 26 she is paralyzed from the waist down for life. She's a good singer too so I see a good jury vote. I think its a 100/1 because semi final 2 is really tough but at least she has a 2nd half slot.
I think the sympathy vote is more likely to go with Poland. The official video has had its critics because of this but youve got to be a bit hard hearted not to have a sympathy for somebody who was once dancing on TV in her twenties and through a motor accident aged 26 she is paralyzed from the waist down for life. She's a good singer too so I see a good jury vote. I think its a 100/1 because semi final 2 is really tough but at least she has a 2nd half slot.
Poland overpriced for me. A big diaspora vote and the sympathy vote
I remember us discussing that if Poland ever sent a half decent number, with their diaspora vote they could be a big runner
Unfortunately this isn't a decent song but does have the paralysis angle
It's a lot more jury friendly than last years tits out milking the cows porn number
That was amazing. Sure to get every Polish builder picking up the phone
Måns Zelmerlöw performs in Finland and, while there, slags off the Finnish entry. Finnish audience (The Voice) stonewall him. He's not the brightest when it comes to diplomacy 
"While Måns was in Finland, he said that the Finnish ESC entry is "hardly a song". When asked about it by Aftonbladet after the statement was gained publicity in Finnish media, he initially said he was misunderstood and "it's great that Finland sends such an entry because that's what Eurovision is about, to celebrate differences", but moments later, he added "surely, nobody can think it's a good entry, right?".
The statement from the Aftonbladet article hasn't made it to Finnish media (yet), but the first time most people in Finland were exposed to Måns Zelmerlöw's name was yesterday, first with him, a complete unknown here, performing in the TVOF final, then with tabloid headlines about him as an ESC favourite slating the Finnish entry. The Finnish media will have something to write about during ESC now, I guess."
"While Måns was in Finland, he said that the Finnish ESC entry is "hardly a song". When asked about it by Aftonbladet after the statement was gained publicity in Finnish media, he initially said he was misunderstood and "it's great that Finland sends such an entry because that's what Eurovision is about, to celebrate differences", but moments later, he added "surely, nobody can think it's a good entry, right?".
The statement from the Aftonbladet article hasn't made it to Finnish media (yet), but the first time most people in Finland were exposed to Måns Zelmerlöw's name was yesterday, first with him, a complete unknown here, performing in the TVOF final, then with tabloid headlines about him as an ESC favourite slating the Finnish entry. The Finnish media will have something to write about during ESC now, I guess."
Apr 21, 2015 -- 7:02AM, Henry VIII wrote:
Måns Zelmerlöw performs in Finland and, while there, slags off the Finnish entry. Finnish audience (The Voice) stonewall him. He's not the brightest when it comes to diplomacy "While Måns was in Finland, he said that the Finnish ESC entry is "hardly a song". When asked about it by Aftonbladet after the statement was gained publicity in Finnish media, he initially said he was misunderstood and "it's great that Finland sends such an entry because that's what Eurovision is about, to celebrate differences", but moments later, he added "surely, nobody can think it's a good entry, right?". The statement from the Aftonbladet article hasn't made it to Finnish media (yet), but the first time most people in Finland were exposed to Måns Zelmerlöw's name was yesterday, first with him, a complete unknown here, performing in the TVOF final, then with tabloid headlines about him as an ESC favourite slating the Finnish entry. The Finnish media will have something to write about during ESC now, I guess."
I wonder if that has blown Sweden's chance of getting the 12 from Finland. One thing you should never do is slag off the entries of other countries even if you dislike what they send as this could end up with them not voting for you and if you are favourite to win it could well scupper your chances of winning.
Remember Aram from Armenia last year being favourite and Aram slagging of Conchita for Austria who was a rank outsider and look what happened. Armenia drifted out from being the favourite and people started backing Austria. The history book on the shelf is always repeating itself.
He is helping kids in Africa with AIDS, so isn't all bad 
Clearly slightly retarded tho
Clearly slightly retarded tho
I've even stopped chuckling at Sunshine's posts now 
Should we ask for market on who Mans will offend next. Odds on the tubby Serbian singer. Or maybe the black Australian guy
Above and beyond the acceptable bounds of annoyance imo
Yes, My heart sank when I saw Sunshine was the most recent poster in the top 6 threads. Being OCD I had to open them all
I always wonder why he only does 7 or 8 threads. A bit more effort would be FOTY-winning stuff.
Apr 22, 2015 -- 11:08AM, five leaves left wrote:
I've even stopped chuckling at Sunshine's posts now
I am not here to make you chuckle chucky
Apr 22, 2015 -- 1:43PM, bearcub wrote:
The nurse probably medicates him
Nasty evil devil bearcub
Finish postal stamp issued. Apparently Guardian predicts Finland win:
http://www.posti.fi/english/current/2015/20150428_perttikurikannimipaivat.html
Orchestral version. Loses something in the translation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGpcTQZAZ7M
http://www.posti.fi/english/current/2015/20150428_perttikurikannimipaivat.html
Orchestral version. Loses something in the translation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGpcTQZAZ7M
The Guardian's prediction is here:
http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2015/mar/02/finland-eurovision-entries-nul-points-punk-band-pertti-kurikan-nimipaivat
The sympathy vote does somewhat concern me, but surely the jury's will kill it's chances.
http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2015/mar/02/finland-eurovision-entries-nul-points-punk-band-pertti-kurikan-nimipaivat
The sympathy vote does somewhat concern me, but surely the jury's will kill it's chances.
If only the televote had been used in 2012 Sweden would have still won and in second place the Russian grannies. The juries that year had Sweden as the winner and Russia were placed 11th see: http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=eurovision_2012_split_jury-televote_results_revealed
Should Finland this year qualify for the final they may well score rather high with the televote with sympathy votes but the juries will no doubt kill its chances of actually winning and judge them same as with the grannies.
Should Finland this year qualify for the final they may well score rather high with the televote with sympathy votes but the juries will no doubt kill its chances of actually winning and judge them same as with the grannies.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539