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Sanna worthy fav imo, but I think Ace would do better in ESC if it won tomorrow - modern, catchy, upbeat and well performed, in the mould of Lena's Satellite. Maybe the MF organisers thought the same in putting it in pimp.
Link for live feed will be something like :
http://www.svtplay.se/video/1759147/melodifestivalen-2014-deltavling-1
http://www.svt.se/melodifestivalen/
I'm not sure I'll be able to watch it so I don't know the time or if it competes with The Voice - if so, and people are watching both simultaneously, it may be best to have in-play MF discussion on The Voice thread.
____________________________________________________________
Running Order
Draw Artist Song
1 Anton Ewald "Natural"
2 Ellen Benediktson "Songbird"
3 Alcazar "Blame It on the Disco"
4 Oscar Zia "Yes We Can"
5 Linus Svenning "Bröder" (Brothers)
6 Helena Paparizou "Survivor"
7 Yohio "To the End"
8 Sanna Nielsen "Undo"
9 Panetoz "Efter solsken" (After sunshine)
10 Ace Wilder "Busy Doin' Nothin"
_______________________________________________________________
Charts FWIW
iTunes Charts current
1 Ace Wilder "Busy Doin' Nothin"
2 Ace Wilder "Busy Doin' Nothin" EP
5 Helena Paparizou "Survivor"
6 Sanna Nielsen "Undo"
8 Alcazar "Blame It on the Disco"
9 Linus Svenning "Bröder" (Brothers)
13 Panetoz "Efter solsken" (After sunshine)
16 Oscar Zia "Yes We Can"
24 Ellen Benediktson "Songbird"
26 Yohio "To the End"
29 Anton Ewald "Natural"
The fact that the Swedish charts are stuffed with Melodifestivalen songs shows that they take it seriously and make an effort for quality. There are other MF songs in the charts that didn't even make the final.
_________________________________________________________________
Spotify Charts last week
3. Ace Wilder – Busy Doin’ Nothing (977,806 plays)
13. Sanna Nielsen – Undo (605,115 plays)
21. Linus Svenning – Bröder (458,229 plays)
23. Anton Ewald – Natural (438,260 plays)
24. Panetoz – Efter solsken (395,757 plays)
25. Alcazar – Blame It On the Disco (364,690 plays)
28. Oscar Zia – Yes We Can (348,610 plays)
Link for live feed will be something like :
http://www.svtplay.se/video/1759147/melodifestivalen-2014-deltavling-1
http://www.svt.se/melodifestivalen/
I'm not sure I'll be able to watch it so I don't know the time or if it competes with The Voice - if so, and people are watching both simultaneously, it may be best to have in-play MF discussion on The Voice thread.
____________________________________________________________
Running Order
Draw Artist Song
1 Anton Ewald "Natural"
2 Ellen Benediktson "Songbird"
3 Alcazar "Blame It on the Disco"
4 Oscar Zia "Yes We Can"
5 Linus Svenning "Bröder" (Brothers)
6 Helena Paparizou "Survivor"
7 Yohio "To the End"
8 Sanna Nielsen "Undo"
9 Panetoz "Efter solsken" (After sunshine)
10 Ace Wilder "Busy Doin' Nothin"
_______________________________________________________________
Charts FWIW
iTunes Charts current
1 Ace Wilder "Busy Doin' Nothin"
2 Ace Wilder "Busy Doin' Nothin" EP
5 Helena Paparizou "Survivor"
6 Sanna Nielsen "Undo"
8 Alcazar "Blame It on the Disco"
9 Linus Svenning "Bröder" (Brothers)
13 Panetoz "Efter solsken" (After sunshine)
16 Oscar Zia "Yes We Can"
24 Ellen Benediktson "Songbird"
26 Yohio "To the End"
29 Anton Ewald "Natural"
The fact that the Swedish charts are stuffed with Melodifestivalen songs shows that they take it seriously and make an effort for quality. There are other MF songs in the charts that didn't even make the final.
_________________________________________________________________
Spotify Charts last week
3. Ace Wilder – Busy Doin’ Nothing (977,806 plays)
13. Sanna Nielsen – Undo (605,115 plays)
21. Linus Svenning – Bröder (458,229 plays)
23. Anton Ewald – Natural (438,260 plays)
24. Panetoz – Efter solsken (395,757 plays)
25. Alcazar – Blame It On the Disco (364,690 plays)
28. Oscar Zia – Yes We Can (348,610 plays)
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Tempted to back Helena and hope she smashes the jury vote
My betting is done I think unless anything dramatic happens when jury voting starts.
What the hell is the female presenter wearing now 
i'm watching the svt feed and they have a commentator talking over the presenters. very odd.
Great stuff with the poker, fll. I play 1 dollar tourneys, and consider it `mission accomplished` if I get my money back!
Just loving laying two odds-on shots...
Just loving laying two odds-on shots...
the laying of Ace seems very suspicious to me - would have expected her to be 1-5 atm, not 11-10
Ace has won - top 3 likely to be in the same order after televote I reckon.
Alcazar was dated but retro and catchy. It has done better with juries than I expected but then so has Ace Wilder. The big surprise is Paparizou's fail.
I wouldn't bank on Ace topping the vote based on iTunes
Has always under estimated the vote for the older acts
Alcazar would need to beat her by 5% or more, I can't see it. Sanna maybe but doubtful.
That dreadful Ellinore made top 4 and couldn't hold a note
i can't see it either pk, and ace's pimp slot will have a greater effect on the viewers than the juries.
Alcazar are the ones it looks like were buried. (In hind sight)
Ellen 7th with the juries. They must be fooking deaf
I think Sanna might do it with the help of Swedish mums
brought the field green and actually have sanna a bit better than ace now. i still want ace to win
You boys all seem fairly confident with Ace. Maybe, but I think there`s been a bit of an over reaction, price wise. Anything can happen in a PV, and I`ve laid Ace down to level, various degrees of green the rest.
and now Sanna for an all green book with two trades in five minutes
Thought she would do it. Mums pick the winner everywhere
someone knew I'm telling you - only reason such generous prices were being offered on Ace to win when perceived wisdom was she'd have a lot of catching up to do after the jury votes were in.
If you could do the maths quickly enough, there was money to be made.
looks like Basim is winning in Denmark - another song I loathe. It's like bad Bruno Mars 
well i made money, but it's a bad day for esc. it will just encourage the swedish songwriters, who write half the countries' tunes, to churn out more of the same dross next year.
ace would have encouraged better acts to enter. she's doing better in the charts than loreen ffs.
i feel good for sanna though. 7th attempt fruitful at last.
ace would have encouraged better acts to enter. she's doing better in the charts than loreen ffs.
i feel good for sanna though. 7th attempt fruitful at last.
There was hundreds wanting to back Ace at 1.4x. Don`t know if it was all taken
Well done winners 
I should have gone with my instinct on Sanna ir but sat tight
I should have gone with my instinct on Sanna ir but sat tight
Basim has got a big jury score in Denmark. Assuming it wins, I can see a big televote for it, but it will get hurt by juries in real ESC surely?
I was always against Ace. Bit close for comfort that one.
Well who would have picked Ace Wilder to top jury scores? Can you imagine the price on that.
She woz robbed by the mums of Sweden
The teens too busy downloading it to vote
The teens too busy downloading it to vote
I suspect that extra 5 mins of voting helped Sanna to vctory
was too close for insider activity methinks. anyway if there were insiders they were only a small percentage of the market at least.
Yep, no decisive move like previous weeks.
I should have stopped betting after week 1. Laying Helena to qualify my only winning bet
I should have stopped betting after week 1. Laying Helena to qualify my only winning bet
Can someone provide youtube link for the Norway Song? It must be OK at those short prices
Her failure with the juries, and Ace Wilder's success the biggest shock of the night for me.
Basim for Denmark. Could be a contender IF, and it's a big IF the juries so for it.
I have a feeling that Sweden will be the ballard that the fanboys will go for and will either win the OGAE vote this year or be in the medal positions.
I agree about Norways price and they haven't chosen their song yet. Maybe someones bot is on overdrive.
"Silent Storm" expected to win in Norway is the reason for the price.
Norway is now the only country with odds under 10/1 to be the outright winner at 14/5. All other countries are over 10/1 to win.
And given they are imo a false fav we have the open market I was hoping for
Have you listened to it GB2. It's a different class to anything we've heard so far. Then again I thought that about Songbird 
well i hope that we don't end up with another odds on fav winner before final night like the last 2 years and so predictable.
Only really starting doing my homework last night fll....or 3am this morning tbh...I did listen to the Norway lot once a week ago and was underwhelmed but will do again later.
i listened to the song on youtube and if he comes across exactly like that on the night then the juries may choose it to be the winner. Will the pv go for it?
This fll...don't know outcome
.http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-curious-case-of-poker-pro-phil-iveys-punto-banco-rake/
.http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-curious-case-of-poker-pro-phil-iveys-punto-banco-rake/
Sophisticated / beautiful songs don't have a good record.
And it entered the Norwegian charts but there's been hardly any fuss about it compared to past favourites.
And it entered the Norwegian charts but there's been hardly any fuss about it compared to past favourites.
True Henry. I have it level. I'm hoping for something decent from the East or Greece
I hadn't read about that GB2. I doubt Ivey will be paid out
Not sure from a legal point of view but I agree with the comments...casino greedy barsstards who wanted it all ways.
Us poor punters like Ivey
need every edge we can find
need every edge we can find
sorry another OT:
...it's a tricky one this as Mr Ivey has admitted to gaining an advantage by making certain requests that Crockfords readily accepted ~ they had no need to do this but chose to do so and as such must bear some of the blame for their losses.
If I were presiding, if able I would rule and order Crockfords to pay Ivey 50% of his winnings plus interest at 8% pa:
1) It was Crockford's cards that had the imperfections ~ in future they should endeavour to use flawless cards.
2) Crockfords readily accepted Mr Ivey's requests to change the playing cards ~ they could have refused to do so or asked him to leave the establishment.
3) Crockfords readily accepted Mr Ivey's requests to rotate certain cards ~ they could have refused to do so or asked him to leave the establishment.
4) Crockfords readily accepted Mr Ivey's requests to raise the maximum stake to £150,000 from £50,000 ~ again they could have refused to do so or asked him to leave the establishment.
5) Would Crockfords have refunded Mr Ivey's losses had he somehow ended up losing? No, so they can't have it both ways: if you cannot win, you cannot lose!
6) Being the oldest gaming house in Britain, they should by now know of any advantages players can attempt to gain and knowing this they still offered to play punto banco.
6) Mr Ivey has admitted to gaining a mathematical advantage over the house as a result of the imperfectly cut cards being rotated by the house. As such, he may not have been as successful had the house either refused to change the cards or not agreed to rotate them. As such he should not be awarded his full winnings.
...it's a tricky one this as Mr Ivey has admitted to gaining an advantage by making certain requests that Crockfords readily accepted ~ they had no need to do this but chose to do so and as such must bear some of the blame for their losses.
If I were presiding, if able I would rule and order Crockfords to pay Ivey 50% of his winnings plus interest at 8% pa:
1) It was Crockford's cards that had the imperfections ~ in future they should endeavour to use flawless cards.
2) Crockfords readily accepted Mr Ivey's requests to change the playing cards ~ they could have refused to do so or asked him to leave the establishment.
3) Crockfords readily accepted Mr Ivey's requests to rotate certain cards ~ they could have refused to do so or asked him to leave the establishment.
4) Crockfords readily accepted Mr Ivey's requests to raise the maximum stake to £150,000 from £50,000 ~ again they could have refused to do so or asked him to leave the establishment.
5) Would Crockfords have refunded Mr Ivey's losses had he somehow ended up losing? No, so they can't have it both ways: if you cannot win, you cannot lose!
6) Being the oldest gaming house in Britain, they should by now know of any advantages players can attempt to gain and knowing this they still offered to play punto banco.
6) Mr Ivey has admitted to gaining a mathematical advantage over the house as a result of the imperfectly cut cards being rotated by the house. As such, he may not have been as successful had the house either refused to change the cards or not agreed to rotate them. As such he should not be awarded his full winnings.
Either pay him it all or none of it.....what is the legal ruling that would allow for a 50% award? Card counters get paid up first and banned later same here. They acceeded to his requests so he would come back and lose...he came back and won so pay the man.
Ivey was doing what hackers claim to do...free consultancy to identify systemic weaknesses. Need to read up on the Aussie Open one. For some reason I am not so sure about the dogs aftertimer even though similar to the Ivey case. Doesn't feel right. In the old days the bookie near me would let you get on after the first furlong or so but not after the horse had won.
...after the horse has won is the proverbial shoo-in.
The courtsider case has just been dismissed after much false reporting...http://www.smh.com.au/business/charges-against-accused-australia...
The courtsider case has just been dismissed after much false reporting...http://www.smh.com.au/business/charges-against-accused-australia...
Mr Dobson was charged under laws introduced last year by the Victorian government that make it an offence for anyone to "engage in or facilitate any conduct that corrupts or would corrupt a betting outcome of a sport or racing event resulting in financial advantage".
He was accused of "courtsiding".
I don't see how the reporting of a match corrupts a betting outcome. thats like saying if there were two media company broadcasting a match, one with a four second delay and one with a six second delay, the company with the shortest delay are criminals.
He was accused of "courtsiding".
I don't see how the reporting of a match corrupts a betting outcome. thats like saying if there were two media company broadcasting a match, one with a four second delay and one with a six second delay, the company with the shortest delay are criminals.
Stupid Aussie CPS even bringing the case given the actual law:
"engage in or facilitate any conduct that corrupts or would corrupt a betting outcome of a sport or racing event resulting in financial advantage".
Seems clear that it relates to the event itself not the mere reporting of it quicker than others. That said it does refer to "betting outcome" rather than "sporting" or "match" outcome. I guess banging a drum outside the team hotel the night before a game might fall foul of it?
"engage in or facilitate any conduct that corrupts or would corrupt a betting outcome of a sport or racing event resulting in financial advantage".
Seems clear that it relates to the event itself not the mere reporting of it quicker than others. That said it does refer to "betting outcome" rather than "sporting" or "match" outcome. I guess banging a drum outside the team hotel the night before a game might fall foul of it?
...and those who watch live sport on a HD channel are just terminally stupid.
voting figures:
official svt
http://www.svt.se/melodifestivalen/article1884009.svt/binary/Alla%20r%C3%B6stningssiffror%20Melodifestivalen%202014-v1.1.pdf
wiki (english)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melodifestivalen_2014
official svt
http://www.svt.se/melodifestivalen/article1884009.svt/binary/Alla%20r%C3%B6stningssiffror%20Melodifestivalen%202014-v1.1.pdf
wiki (english)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melodifestivalen_2014
sanna 307,788 25.8%
ace 283,831 23.8%
That gap is more than accounted for by the keeping of voting after jury declaration imo. After Ace 97, Sanna 90 was announced from juries the Sanna voters would have had motivation to vote and multi vote.
The above motivation is why Ace's final prices were too low, not too high (as per insider theory), and thus were a rational lay.
ace 283,831 23.8%
That gap is more than accounted for by the keeping of voting after jury declaration imo. After Ace 97, Sanna 90 was announced from juries the Sanna voters would have had motivation to vote and multi vote.
The above motivation is why Ace's final prices were too low, not too high (as per insider theory), and thus were a rational lay.
No real shocks with the votes except, perhaps, Oscar Zia`s drop in the final, after beating Ace in their semi.
Yohio got the most votes of all the 32 semi finalists and then came a poor 4th in the final with 9.3%.
Shows how things can change - running order etc.
Shows how things can change - running order etc.
Yes Tim although more Ace's spectacular rise from Semi to Final.
My Martin Stenmarck bets just done both times plus Songbird not far off winning the 1st heat
Ace only just made the final & was close to requiring Andre Chansen to qualify. Given her lead over Sanna following the jury vote, her price to win was still far too big. From the pimp slot it was sensible to assume she would top the pv. If the presenters said it was close and required a recount of the televote, this would also have suggested Ace should hold on as Sanna had to beat her by a fair margin to overturn her jury deficit.
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