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Melodifestivalen Final - Saturday 8/3/2014

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Replies: 188
By:
five leaves left
When: 08 Mar 14 21:37
A worthy favourite if they pick it
By:
five leaves left
When: 08 Mar 14 21:42
Altho rather downbeat. So no certainty
By:
Corbyguy
When: 08 Mar 14 21:47
Norway is now the only country with odds under 10/1 to be the outright winner at 14/5. All other countries are over 10/1 to win.
By:
George Bailey
When: 08 Mar 14 21:52
And given they are imo a false fav we have the open market I was hoping for
By:
five leaves left
When: 08 Mar 14 21:54
Have you listened to it GB2. It's a different class to anything we've heard so far. Then again I thought that about Songbird Grin
By:
Corbyguy
When: 08 Mar 14 21:55
well i hope that we don't end up with another odds on fav winner before final night like the last 2 years and so predictable.
By:
George Bailey
When: 08 Mar 14 21:56
Only really starting doing my homework last night fll....or 3am this morning tbh...I did listen to the Norway lot once a week ago and was underwhelmed but will do again later.
By:
Corbyguy
When: 08 Mar 14 21:57
i listened to the song on youtube and if he comes across exactly like that on the night then the juries may choose it to be the winner. Will the pv go for it?
By:
George Bailey
When: 08 Mar 14 22:00
This fll...don't know outcome

.http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-curious-case-of-poker-pro-phil-iveys-punto-banco-rake/
By:
Henry VIII
When: 08 Mar 14 22:08
Sophisticated / beautiful songs don't have a good record.

And it entered the Norwegian charts but there's been hardly any fuss about it compared to past favourites.
By:
five leaves left
When: 08 Mar 14 22:14
True Henry. I have it level. I'm hoping for something decent from the East or Greece
By:
five leaves left
When: 08 Mar 14 22:16
I hadn't read about that GB2. I doubt Ivey will be paid out
By:
George Bailey
When: 08 Mar 14 22:38
Not sure from a legal point of view but I agree with the comments...casino greedy barsstards who wanted it all ways.
By:
five leaves left
When: 09 Mar 14 00:02
Us poor punters like IveyWink need every edge we can find
By:
timbuctooth
When: 09 Mar 14 00:20
Would that be `the long, distinguishable` edge?
By:
Jim Duncan
When: 09 Mar 14 13:05
sorry another OT:

...it's a tricky one this as Mr Ivey has admitted to gaining an advantage by making certain requests that Crockfords readily accepted ~ they had no need to do this but chose to do so and as such must bear some of the blame for their losses.

If I were presiding, if able I would rule and order Crockfords to pay Ivey 50% of his winnings plus interest at 8% pa:

1) It was Crockford's cards that had the imperfections ~ in future they should endeavour to use flawless cards.
2) Crockfords readily accepted Mr Ivey's requests to change the playing cards ~ they could have refused to do so or asked him to leave the establishment.
3) Crockfords readily accepted Mr Ivey's requests to rotate certain cards ~ they could have refused to do so or asked him to leave the establishment.
4) Crockfords readily accepted Mr Ivey's requests to raise the maximum stake to £150,000 from £50,000 ~ again they could have refused to do so or asked him to leave the establishment.
5) Would Crockfords have refunded Mr Ivey's losses had he somehow ended up losing? No, so they can't have it both ways: if you cannot win, you cannot lose!
6) Being the oldest gaming house in Britain, they should by now know of any advantages players can attempt to gain and knowing this they still offered to play punto banco.

6) Mr Ivey has admitted to gaining a mathematical advantage over the house as a result of the imperfectly cut cards being rotated by the house. As such, he may not have been as successful had the house either refused to change the cards or not agreed to rotate them. As such he should not be awarded his full winnings.
By:
George Bailey
When: 09 Mar 14 13:29
Either pay him it all or none of it.....what is the legal ruling that would allow for a 50% award? Card counters get paid up first and banned later same here.  They acceeded to his requests so he would come back and lose...he came back and won so pay the man.
By:
George Bailey
When: 09 Mar 14 15:50
Ivey was doing what hackers claim to do...free consultancy to identify systemic weaknesses. Need to read up on the Aussie Open one. For some reason I am not so sure about the dogs aftertimer even though similar to the Ivey case. Doesn't feel right. In the old days the bookie near me would let you get on after the first furlong or so but not after the horse had won.
By:
Jim Duncan
When: 09 Mar 14 17:15
...after the horse has won is the proverbial shoo-in.

The courtsider case has just been dismissed after much false reporting...http://www.smh.com.au/business/charges-against-accused-australian-open-courtsider-dropped-in-embarrassing-backflip-20140306-348la.html
By:
mach
When: 09 Mar 14 17:34
Mr Dobson was charged under laws introduced last year by the Victorian government that make it an offence for anyone to "engage in or facilitate any conduct that corrupts or would corrupt a betting outcome of a sport or racing event resulting in financial advantage".
He was accused of "courtsiding".


I don't see how the reporting of a match corrupts a betting outcome. thats like saying if there were two media company broadcasting a match, one with a four second delay and one with a six second delay, the company with the shortest delay are criminals.
By:
George Bailey
When: 09 Mar 14 17:34
Stupid Aussie CPS even bringing the case given the actual law:

"engage in or facilitate any conduct that corrupts or would corrupt a betting outcome of a sport or racing event resulting in financial advantage".

Seems clear that it relates to the event itself not the mere reporting of it quicker than others.  That said it does refer to "betting outcome" rather than "sporting" or "match" outcome.  I guess banging a drum outside the team hotel the night before a game might fall foul of it?
By:
George Bailey
When: 09 Mar 14 17:35
...and those who watch live sport on a HD channel are just terminally stupid.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 12 Mar 14 22:20
voting figures:

official svt
http://www.svt.se/melodifestivalen/article1884009.svt/binary/Alla%20r%C3%B6stningssiffror%20Melodifestivalen%202014-v1.1.pdf

wiki (english)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melodifestivalen_2014
By:
Henry VIII
When: 12 Mar 14 22:37
sanna    307,788     25.8%
ace    283,831     23.8%

That gap is more than accounted for by the keeping of voting after jury declaration imo. After Ace 97, Sanna 90 was announced from juries the Sanna voters would have had motivation to vote and multi vote.

The above motivation is why Ace's final prices were too low, not too high (as per insider theory), and thus were a rational lay.
By:
timbuctooth
When: 12 Mar 14 22:40
No real shocks with the votes except, perhaps, Oscar Zia`s drop in the final, after beating Ace in their semi.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 12 Mar 14 22:46
Yohio got the most votes of all the 32 semi finalists and then came a poor 4th in the final with 9.3%.

Shows how things can change - running order etc.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 12 Mar 14 22:49
Yes Tim although more Ace's spectacular rise from Semi to Final.
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Mar 14 00:29
My Martin Stenmarck bets just done both times plus Songbird not far off winning the 1st heat
By:
johnnyrant
When: 13 Mar 14 10:22
Ace only just made the final & was close to requiring Andre Chansen to qualify. Given her lead over Sanna following the jury vote, her price to win was still far too big. From the pimp slot it was sensible to assume she would top the pv. If the presenters said it was close and required a recount of the televote, this would also have suggested Ace should hold on as Sanna had to beat her by a fair margin to overturn her jury deficit.
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