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The CBB Final thread

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By:
mecca
When: 13 Sep 13 23:45
And the good news is........ Laddies have settled the bet on GS already. Thank you laddiesCool
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Sep 13 23:45
a few crimes forgiven for rylan there
By:
Henry VIII
When: 13 Sep 13 23:46

Sep 13, 2013 -- 11:39PM, Cider wrote:


I took a hit, but not terminal  You can get used to winning in this game.


Not terminal. I won on about the last 8 events. Then too risky in this. Low risk for me from now on.

6 years into this game, it's taking longer to get right than other enterprises. No more BB, and low risk on the rest.

By:
Dizzy42
When: 13 Sep 13 23:46
The market was ultimately right every time with BB / CBB this summer bar one or two occasions?

Why put so much faith in TV polls when the sample remains so low and is skewed to all of us book talkers?
By:
LuckyAz
When: 13 Sep 13 23:46
Well done Mecca, fair play to you!
By:
johnnyrant
When: 13 Sep 13 23:46
I'm probably in a minority of 1 but I only ever take a passing interest in the likes of tvpolls & prefer just to watch these shows & make my own mind up based on what I know about the show & what I see in the edit.

My value approach also made me resist from piling into Charlotte at odds-on and effectively kill off any potential profit on Abz. I didn't think the GS fans would vote for Charlotte in numbers & I expected an anti-Charlotte vote to kick in in that last voting window.
By:
Dizzy42
When: 13 Sep 13 23:47
Glad to hear the damage is limited Henners.  BB and CBB definitely the most volatile of all specials markets, particularly with insider influence... Not as much a factor on BBC / ITV shows where vote is more robust.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 13 Sep 13 23:48
It will be limited from now anyway Dizzy.
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Sep 13 23:48
I was overly cautious as usual and threw money away greening up on the no hopers...even threw GB a few quid on Mario Sad
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Sep 13 23:48
The problem for me was after seeing the crystal vid I though there was no way Abz could lose. OC it was shown on the Hl's
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Sep 13 23:48
wasn't
By:
Dizzy42
When: 13 Sep 13 23:49
Agree with you JR.  Everyone has to view the polls (whether TV Polls or any other) in the right context; i.e. who is being polled.  In that sense, it should only ever confirm / inform your own view, not change it.
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Sep 13 23:49
The 'insiders' were burnt when Vicky wasn't 2nd out on wednesday
By:
Dizzy42
When: 13 Sep 13 23:50
But GB2 is spot on as well - what these polls never really show is a motivation to vote. That's why we have to always include other factors such as fan base etc.
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Sep 13 23:50
Forgot about top male market yet again....mental blank for some reason
By:
Dizzy42
When: 13 Sep 13 23:50
Were the insiders playing 2nd out though Figgy?  I think that was only the second time the market has been wrong all summer...
By:
Dizzy42
When: 13 Sep 13 23:51
If they had made their money on first eviction, no need to play twice...
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Sep 13 23:51
Yeah tbf to me Dizzy I said that plenty of times the past week. That's why you have to use the old "gut" feeling as well.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Sep 13 23:51
All the results very obvious though dizzy
By:
Dizzy42
When: 13 Sep 13 23:52
Most of the results GB - not all.

There were several flip flops in the eviction market for BB (and one or two with CBB).

Not to mention the outright for both, which was just nuts.
By:
Dizzy42
When: 13 Sep 13 23:53
This time we seem to have had a battle between insider and pro money.  Just hope that's not reflected in other mainstream specials markets or it could potentially kill it.
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Sep 13 23:53
I can't think of any.
the last 'nuts' result was the ozzie surviving in a couple of votes to saves
By:
Dizzy42
When: 13 Sep 13 23:53
By nuts, I mean the huge price fluctuations on the favs for both BB and CBB.
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Sep 13 23:54
Where was the insider money tonight? GS drifted a bit and there was no 1.01.
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Sep 13 23:54
There weren't any
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Sep 13 23:54
yup another forum myth
By:
bearcub
When: 13 Sep 13 23:55
mario was odds on all day for 1st eviction, if there were insiders they would have taken the lot
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Sep 13 23:55
No insiders, just plenty casuals who got it right for once

They'll be back
By:
LuckyAz
When: 13 Sep 13 23:55
Think the lowest she traded to on here was 1.4 just before the market was suspended
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Sep 13 23:55
good news
By:
five leaves left
When: 13 Sep 13 23:56
the eviction price moves were all explained by coverage.
Ron went missing when he went.
Callum was shown at his psycho worst the week he went
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Sep 13 23:56
Alarm bells ringing when her price held up for days despite the polls
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Sep 13 23:57
Anyone see final traded total and how much tonight?
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Sep 13 23:57
Certainly people would have known if she won first eviction,  but that's all
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Sep 13 23:57
around 800 gb
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Sep 13 23:58
ta so only 100k tonight or so?
By:
TheMadness
When: 13 Sep 13 23:58
This royal throne of kings, this sceptred isle,
This earth of majesty, this seat of Mars,
This other Eden, demi-paradise,
This fortress built by Nature for herself
Against infection and the hand of war,
This happy breed of men, this little world,
This precious stone set in the silver sea,
Which serves it in the office of a wall
Or as a moat defensive to a house,
Against the envy of less happier lands,—
This blessed plot, this earth, this realm, this England.

Way aye man.
By:
GeorgeBrush
When: 13 Sep 13 23:58
i fink so
By:
George Bailey
When: 13 Sep 13 23:59
Plenty of lessons learned...don't bet for the first two weeks...lay the yanks in the o/r...back the yanks in the evictions....
By:
Elise89
When: 14 Sep 13 00:00
AbzLove
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