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SCD 2012 GENERAL FRED

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By:
charliebigpotatoes
When: 22 Dec 12 15:06
Sorry yes, sample size at the top. Rest of questions are valid!
By:
bexley
When: 22 Dec 12 15:09
I only ever really look at the who do you want to win figures for OR. I'm not surprised or alarmed by the tv polls result. It reflects a couple of weeks of massive Kimble pimping and generally rather underwhelming performances by Louis. This is just one of these situations where as gamblers we have to use our 'superior' knowledge of the format and the dances and probably the motivation to vote [:cool:
By:
bexley
When: 22 Dec 12 15:10
For me it also confirms those hoping Kimble out next are hopelessly optimistic
By:
squares
When: 22 Dec 12 15:14
DR pics up now.

DVO and James look like they're delivering Milk Tray tonight.

A not very elegant Dani with legs akimbo and white knickers.  Vincent looks like he's preparing a hog to roast.

Very strange outfit for Kimbles - like a black jumpsuit.  Thought she had some showgirl fringed thingy.
By:
five leaves left
When: 22 Dec 12 15:14
Rehearsal pics up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/strictlycomedancing/posts/Grand-Final-Dress-Rehearsal
By:
charliebigpotatoes
When: 22 Dec 12 15:15
Tellymix have a survey which is basically worthless as it shows Kimbers ahead but it is at the bottom of an article about how awesome she is..

Kimberley Walsh (40%, 2,303 Votes)
Louis Smith (30%, 1,721 Votes)
Dani Harmer (18%, 1,042 Votes)
Denise Van Outen (12%

http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/strictly-come-dancing/125508-tellymixs-strictly-come-dancing-2012-winner-poll-vote-now.html#ixzz2FnVZA9y7

"Entertainmentwise" also have a potentially bias poll annoyingly stuck under an otherwise-lovely-big-picture-of-Kim-looking-v-sexy with:

9.67%    Denise Van Outen
15.19%    Dani Harmer
34.53%    Kimberley Walsh
40.61%    Louis Smith

Much else going on?

Some forum grumbling that Kimbers' judges chosen dance is "the one when she was in the bottom 2" - anyone spot that?
By:
squares
When: 22 Dec 12 15:16
yes, us lot on here days ago
By:
charliebigpotatoes
When: 22 Dec 12 15:19
Thanks Squares, Bexley. 

From Twitter:

Denise Van Outen Verified ‏@denise_vanouten On my way to BBC for Strictly final preparations. Can't believe its the last day!

@denise_vanouten Top Tip - There's an elimination early Saturday night Denise - so no need to exhaust yourself practicing the Charleston ;-)


Figgy you have email from me. Can you have a look?  ;-)
By:
George Bailey
When: 22 Dec 12 15:21
Tellymix have a survey which is basically worthless as it shows Kimbers ahead but it is at the bottom of an article about how awesome she is..

A common occurrence and confirms how easily the GBP can be manipulated at times.  Derren Brown makes a living out of it.
By:
five leaves left
When: 22 Dec 12 15:26
Just seen Charlie.

I'm not sure how you can a treble with 4 runners Confused

I've never had any multiple bets on here, so I have no idea I'm afraid.
By:
five leaves left
When: 22 Dec 12 15:26
have a treble*
By:
squares
When: 22 Dec 12 15:29
What do you want to know Charlie?  Might be able to help.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 22 Dec 12 15:29
"3) If the above is difficult, why not give us a "raw" figure (unweighted/unchanged) and show us the Age and Gender % figure and we can work it out for ourselves?"

Mr TVPolls that would be an excellent idea. That's how YouGov does it.
By:
charliebigpotatoes
When: 22 Dec 12 15:36
thanks squares, I have some different combos of multiples with Louis the final bet.. 

In the bet I have below, (Treble, 4 bets) do I win or lose the bet if Louis doesn't make it? Is there a difference in the payout if Louis wins/loses? I also have the same combo of 4 bets as a "double".

Cheers!

2012-12-04 16:55:04      Trebles   

O/0195027/0000008    2    300.00    Matched    0.00   

Outright Winner : Outright Winner
Louis Smith    Back    1.80    Matched   

X Factor : Outright Winner
James Arthur    Back 2.20    Won   

Outright Winner : Betting W/O Wiggins
Jessica Ennis    Back    3.25    Won   

Outright Winner : Outright Winner
Bradley Wiggins    Back    1.36    Won
By:
squares
When: 22 Dec 12 15:40
atm you have 3 doubles up and 1 treble.

If Louis wins you have 6 doubles and 4 trebles.
By:
George Bailey
When: 22 Dec 12 15:41
Has the actual heatworld polls results been posted; can't see them on their site:

Earlier this week we asked you to vote for who you thought deserved to be crowned the king or queen of the dancefloor, and your votes put Kimberley ahead of the bookies’ favourite Louis Smith with 54% of the votes.

You put Dani Harmer in third place and Denise Van Outen in fourth. Sorry, Den.
By:
charliebigpotatoes
When: 22 Dec 12 15:43
Finally on TV Polls - and you do a great job, I'm a fan...

If you show the "raw" data and it "predicts the wrong winner" no-one here can complain, because it is what it is. It is only poor if you show the wrong winner AND the figures have been changed without letting us know how they were changed.. 

Cheers
By:
charliebigpotatoes
When: 22 Dec 12 15:45
squares what happens if Louis does not win in that bet?
By:
George Bailey
When: 22 Dec 12 15:48
Might be a repeat and not many voting but pattern emerging? Strictlydancingfansite:

Who would you like to win?
Dani and Vincent
13% (12 votes)
Denise and James
10% (9 votes)
Kimberley and Pasha
42% (38 votes)
Louis and Flavia
34% (31 votes)
By:
squares
When: 22 Dec 12 15:48
your left with 3 doubles and 1 treble up rather than 6 doubles and 4 trebles.

Current treble a little over 8/1, doubles 7/4, tad over 6/1, tad over 3/1
By:
squares
When: 22 Dec 12 15:49
you're
By:
charliebigpotatoes
When: 22 Dec 12 16:01
Thanks Squares.

George I think that a poll of regular viewers of SCD would likely show Kimbers 1 Louis 2 but not a huge gap between.  Perhaps the "entertainmentwise" poll showing Louis ahead has more casual viewers.

Given Louis has had some "ropey" weeks relative to the others, being at 30% is pretty good. As the more casual viewers tune in tonight you would expect Louis to do better in a field as the only man, Olympian and probably subject to less critisism from the judges than in recent weeks. We also know the public like him a lot (Star leaks).  I would expect Louis 1, Kimbers a respectable 2nd.
By:
George Bailey
When: 22 Dec 12 16:05
Yes me too and took the last(ish) of the 13/8 that on the HS.  SCD voters like to think they are a knowledgeable and sophisticated electorate and there will be quite a few voting for the "best"; whatever that means.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 22 Dec 12 16:07
Market's been quite lively for last hour or two.
By:
George Bailey
When: 22 Dec 12 16:09
Very subtle Louis...going for the MEM and gay vote it seems:

http://i2.wp.com/metrouk2.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/louis-smith-e1356093463950.jpg?w=210
By:
squares
When: 22 Dec 12 16:11
DVO is on a Celeb quiz show on ITV during the break
By:
George Bailey
When: 22 Dec 12 16:20
Another chance for people to dislike her then; serial killers have been vilified less.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 22 Dec 12 16:23
I was surprised how obnoxious James was. They say he used to be rude in the early series.
By:
squares
When: 22 Dec 12 16:24
he's much better when he's with less competitive/competent partners.  His best year was when he went out early and he was a sort of roving reporter on ITT and the like, was actually pretty good and quite funny.
By:
ClayDavis
When: 22 Dec 12 16:25
where is the final? Is it in TVC as per or have the moved it to Blackpool or something?
By:
George Bailey
When: 22 Dec 12 16:25
made for each other as the GBP dislike him as much as her.  Flavia getting votes for Louis by contrast.  I'll give her one later.
By:
Henry VIII
When: 22 Dec 12 16:30
Pasha is the biggest Pro vote puller.
By:
mach
When: 22 Dec 12 16:30
DVO knows the score from the radiotimes online

Denise Van Outen, already struggling after being in the bottom two in the last two shows, has now dislocated a rib.

She had it popped back in by doctors yesterday, but is under no illusion she has any chance of getting her hands on the Glitterball trophy.

Speaking on Friday she admitted "we are the most unpopular" and said it would take a miracle for her and James Jordan to turn it around tonight.

Dark horse Dani Harmer has done fantastically well to get to the final. But her tough Showdance with professional partner Vincent Simone is causing problems. So far they have only completed the end of the dance correctly once and they caused hilarity amongst the other celebrities in rehearsals when Vincent fell on top of Dani and made the ending look like something from the Kama Sutra.

Gymnast Louis remains the one to beat.
By:
vagabond
When: 22 Dec 12 16:33
Forgive my ignorance but what role do the judges have tonight or is the winner based purely on votes?
By:
George Bailey
When: 22 Dec 12 16:33
scores for "guidance" only...public decide
By:
squares
When: 22 Dec 12 16:34
judges score for "guidance".  Public vote only though - judges' scores not included tonight.
By:
judorick
When: 22 Dec 12 17:08
have let my maximum red on DVO run right from the start although managed to reduce it by iteratively laying some of the rags

anyway all good as long as the GBP don't suddenly have a change of heart and start voting for her
By:
Makybe_Diva
When: 22 Dec 12 19:00
Rick, I think they may do after that showdance.
By:
judorick
When: 22 Dec 12 19:04
nah
By:
tara2007
When: 22 Dec 12 21:38
So who was the top female? Did they have a vote off or did I miss it??
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