Specials
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 623 comments are related to the topic:
Friday night's quiet thread
Friday night's quiet thread
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 623
|
By:
And some of the wins haven't been all that small
 |
|
By:
Winners grow throughout a series. It's very difficult to predict most at the start. If you've managed it once the chances are you'll fail next time. Take last year's xf. Marcus trading 20s at one stage and we all know about Rimmix. Who'd have thunk it?
|
|
By:
Even if you get one at the start, you'll often get higher prices during the series. Say for example if Adam comes home for me in this one
|
|
By:
omfg, specials is all about trading..u want to back outright winners stick to the mug horse racing scene or footy.
i know, i'll feck about on this for 3 months to earn a bucket of p1ss if my horse dont get home, ummmm no thanks, i'll take me guaranteed green thanks. and do u know why i will, coz i put the time and effort in and ramp the arse off every runner in sight, not sit back and be a right lazy fecker and expect cash to fall in my lap. all specials markets are longterm built for trading and nothing else, even a position taker will no doubt trade out at odds on at some point, making him the biggest hypocrite of all come pay day. stick that in your pipe and smoke it |
|
By:
Listen to what GB (and army) is saying..this is a man who can start a thread on Monday and ditch it on Tuesday...you have to be able to murder your darlings
 |
|
By:
Calm down lads. Your both right in certain ways.
I have went through more tanks than Rommel in my gambling life. Generally i would have to say people who trade exclusively are more risk adverse but smart with it. Well, those who can pay the rent. I do think however, this need to be green in all things can only be achieved by diluting value and sometimes just giving value away. But you need to do that in order to have a cash flow when your dealing in high volume betting but low margin returns. Personally think outright and sometimes reckless betting is okay if your single and young enough to be able to make mistakes and learn from then. But as you get older most people become more conservative by nature and if your married with a family you have to balance the gambling instinct in you with with responsibility. |
|
By:
Agree with this as well. Not sure what I am anymore
 ...part gambler/part trader now I guess but have become more risk averse than I need to be sometimes. |
|
By:
lol at army
 I don't always lay off, in fact I rarely do. I'm sure some of the regs can vouch for that. As GB1 has said, horses for courses but trading or not I cannot see the point of backing below price, to avoid red. Your betting is long term, not an isolated market (if you're taking it seriously which everyone on here does). You shouldn't have a red that you can't accommodate as part of your normal MO, trading or position taking. Partly down to your own skills, I'd say I'm pretty good at calling winners and spotting value, but pretty rubbish at predicting market movements. |
|
By:
paddletoe makes a good point, traders is really for old fogeys
when your young life is a rollercoaster, enjoy while u can.paddle and cider both make valid points that traders often throw away value or clearing a red by a traders panic situation as i would call it. i did this with deana in the shiv argument, panicked deana was going to the dark side, layed off a chunk and 30 mins later an article appeared saying she does not trust shiv. ive made a few mistakes like that but ive also made countless good shouts. basically the good outweighs the bad most of the time and u have a healthy green book if u so wish or take the gamble and leave bigger greens on the ones u like the most or ones u think have the best chance of winning. traders infact get the best of both worlds when u think about it, coz once u get into a healthy position u can take risks here and there virtually loss free. traders deffo have more fun |
|
By:
Agree with Cider,and the last paragraph is a key point.Different systems work for different people.
If you have a relatively large bank,are skilled at predicting market fluctuations and have the spare time to monitor things closely and act upon any information immediately,then trading would be your best option. If however you are operating on a comparatively smaller bank,have lesser time for monitoring things,yet have a penchant for spotting winners early,then the only time you may trade,as Cider insinuates,is when you feel your pick is underpriced. Bottom line is I guess,if it works for you it's right. |
|
By:
As someone who isn't a trader but has made 12k in the past year, I have to respectfully disagree.
|
|
By:
those that pick a winner at the start and stick to it are at a massive disadvantage.
specials like BB are an unfolding story where a lot of facts are not clear, by keeping up with the events in the house it's possible to spot value and where the market is going. (example) nearly all the regular traders on here spoted Adam would be the next fav when his price was double what it is now. if you gave the traders and straight pickers the same stake at the start of BB every year there would be no contest the traders would make the most profit for the least over all risk. |
|
By:
Trading need not necessarily mean covering every last possibility, as I mentioned earlier. I don't think I've a single back of Luke S the entire series, as the price has always been wrong and remains wrong
|
|
By:
"GeorgeBrush
14 Jul 12 09:46 As a pure trader I've always had an aversion to any kind of loss, I hate that prospect except on small fun bets. But this can still lead to huge reds (Luke S, Carol here) who I perceive as chanceless. I'm also level on Luke A just in case. Smaller wins, but I've only had 2 significant losses in 5 years. Horses for courses innit" I think this is the tactic I have to employ. I've been betting off and on for 5 years and now have nothing else to do so will concentrate more. What on earth was I doing taking a position on last night? You had the right tactic: start off backing Shev and then back Conor when he drifted in-play. And, as has been said, for those who are good at picking winners - stick with it. Even successful traders who always profit will have inevitably made hundreds of losing bets in each market they profit from. |
|
By:
lol Henry. I made no cash because I was all in on Conor. So much for perfect tactics. Didn't lose a penny though
|
|
By:
A downside of my MO is that when I came to PC status, my commission ratio was ridiculously low at 12%. Even now it is only up to 14%
|
|
By:
I should do some churning
|
|
By:
Pretty hard to pick a winner from the start with these things, depends on the particular show.
There's usually a 'eureka' moment I guess one could call it when a runner looks a possible/likely winner. It can come any time, from the spoilers of potential runners right up to the final. With this year's bb it might not happen at all! It's far easier to rule out runners altho LM can always be thrown back in my face as I did rule them out for a long period of the series. I can live with picking the finalist edged out by a few % @40-1 tho  |
|
By:
Marcus was the natural winner of that series. It was effectively fixed
|
|
By:
Yep!
As an aside cbb is easily the toughest event, for me. Although I did very well out of vbp, I've found the winners very hard to find, overall. Perhaps because there's a mix of notoriety before they go in and events when they are in. The evictions are much easier. |
|
By:
Denise and Paddy I ended up with >500 wins on, only getting on in the final few days. Agree, very difficult
|
|
By:
It was easier when you had HS accounts. I remember hammering Reid at all prices and turning a red into a big win
|
|
By:
I can only speak from my own point of view but i think money management is the most important thing in betting/gambling.
Its a lot easier on your personal life if every penny is a prisoner in your betting life as you dont have the regular blow outs that pure gamblers have to deal with. Its okay kicking stones on the way back from the bookies when your 20 and single and you have done the paycheck on the last favourite at the dogs. But when your not single you cant go around blowing tanks and it affecting someone else. |
|
By:
Hemsby
You are right ,in that at the moment I have an exposure of 12 points. However, I can get the whole field +17 points, with no exposure. This is the joy of trading. Even a blind, deaf monkey will get 50% of his trades right, I/we only have to get 51% right to be in front. Nearly all of us will have been outright backers at first, but it is so much easier to win by trading. In six or seven years, covering maybe 70 or 80 Specials events, I have lost the 12 points on four occasions: Joe Mac twice, the Italian chef, and this year`s ESC. On each of those occasions, I had opportunities to get out of trouble, but didn`t feel the value was there, so let it ride. Very, very importantly, this is not down to my amazing abilities, it`s purely a result of getting 51% of my trades right. That is all it takes, but, long term, it works |