USA Presidential Elections 2012

This week's Economist leads with an analysis "The Right Republican".  It concludes, sadly that they may not yet even be in the running and doesn't rule out Bush, Daniels or Christie.

Jumped ship in the Iowa Caucus bet, Romney looks like he'll take this by a few % right now and he'll be doing a big push for votes towards the 3rd.
Paul is by far the best candidate IMO and he has some crazy dedicated supporters (which remind me a bit of BB Aaron) but every poll fails to reflect that. Also worth betting at Laddies on Ron Paul vote %, anything between 15% - 25% is garuanteed.

Paul is a racist homopohobe so God help us all if he is the best they have. Always a danger that a late entrant could come forward but these days they would need to have the ground operation in place to get the names to be on the ballots in each state. Gingrich couldn't manage to do it in 6 months in his own state.

The Republican Party is the party of racist homophobes. I feel the racism charge at Paul is a smear and not actually true when looked into. However, the nature of these things is that I couldn't care less if they voted a rubber duck for president, I just want to make money off the winner.

Nah he knew what was in those leaflets and made money from them. Only 35% of Iowan republicans find him acceptable as a candidate compared to 50% for romney. Re 1.01 layer 70% don't think jeb bush should even run. Iowa a close call given the fanaticism of paul supporters and a possible low turn out. As someone said above this could be Aaron BB Mark II. Romney 2.94 for president on here so 5/2 looking better all the time. Stick or twist? can see him going as low as evens maybe if just obama v romney.

Are they allowing Facebook multi-voting now?

No but they are considering allowing afro americans to vote in Florida.

I seriously considered backing Romney for arounf £6k at 5/1 for Republican Nominee a few months ago but decided against cos of the thread from...Rick Perry...*sigh*.

Dec 29, 2011 -- 11:41AM, George Bailey wrote:

Where at Danzaa? Doesn't look to be the liquidity on here. Santorum's turn for his 15mins of fame. Had some 150 president, 50 republican and 14s iowa but whether I have the bank to lay it off on here is another matter. Probably wasted money though if he finishes 3rd or better in iowa his price might come in enough. Romney machine looks like crushing all comers though.

Starting to look like a good value bet on santorum.  Can see him getting second or better in iowa. If he does then he becomes second fav after romney.

Great call on Santorum, I have no money on Republican Nomination market, all I care about is who comes 1st in Iowa. I'm still relatively happy with Romney and see Santorum as a definite maybe. If Santorum wins it's a big loss for me. Rumour has it he's ahead of Paul.

Yeah down to 50s best price on HS for president and as low as 10/1 for republican nomination. 3k if president and 1500 for nomination. Small green on Iowa. As above I don't have the bank to take a profit on here and tie money up for months so I really need a minor miracle ie 1st or 2nd in Iowa and then crashes to short prices. Could happen i guess.

Santorum is 50/50 to take 2nd in Iowa methinks, just a feeling.

I screwed up early on by backing Ron Paul, he does have some definite BB Aaron qualities about him on the web. Any article you read on the Iowa caucus just has Ron Paul comments below. I then jumped ship to Romney and placed a fair amount there, but now Santorum is bringing up the rear, and if he wins, I'll be getting it up the rear too as I'm totally red on him.

Almost too close to call in iowa. You can make a case for all 3...romney is seen as able to beat obama and has spent big there ...paul has a fanatical core base (hence all the comments you refer to)who will definitely vote...santorum has worked the state for ages and is peaking at the right time, seems many of the conservative/evangelical republicans are gravitating towards him now he is seen as a runner. I'm only in very small on this with ironically santorum my only green.

There's not much cash about. More in the Finnish election market.

People are going crazy for that Finnish election market. It's all my friends are talking about.

Thought you were joking but nice market. Completely under my radar. Who is betting on it...Finns in Finland I guess? My luck must be in backed overs 2.5 and Fulham to win. Only won a tenner mind.  Like melv says people bet when they get bored so I keep it low.

I guess there are more Finns than Americans on here ;)

Lots of them play poker.

Loads of mad footy results at Christmas, every year. I bet somebody always makes a killing out of it

Is Twitter open to all of Europe? Wonder why there aren't more such markets? maybe there are and I've not noticed them. I'm still crossing my fingers the yanks are allowed on here soon. The yank specials are easier to read than ours.  Can't recall any of what we would call "shocks". Just the lousy liquidity stops it being a potential gold mine.

If noms for 2012 spoty closed today I'd fancy Ji

Like that bloke who was snogging him

Jan 2, 2012 -- 7:51PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

Loads of mad footy results at Christmas, every year. I bet somebody always makes a killing out of it

Given your skill in betting/laying the premiership should be a God send. Prices go in with every win and then out again like the tides. Crazy short prices whenever any team strings a couple of wins together but every year it gets close at the end.

Who's Ji?

Yeah, never really appealed to me gb. Do a bit on the relegation markets, but can't be arsed much. If I was ft I'd do a lot more for sure

Has everyone spotted the "santorum" google thing? Hilarious. A few years ago to get revenge for his anti gay stuff gays had a contest to come up with a meaning for "santorum". The winner was someone who said it was the frothy mix of lube and fecal matter after anal sex. Now its higher than him in google. Could be a serious issue for him if he wins iowa.

Haha, love it. Won't be a serious issue sadly (for me).

Who's Ji?   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3iQbKNGZis

Jan 2, 2012 -- 7:56PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

Yeah, never really appealed to me gb. Do a bit on the relegation markets, but can't be arsed much. If I was ft I'd do a lot more for sure

Yeah for some reason I dabble in the relegation market more than the winner. Shouldn't really. Can't remember a year where  price just kept getting shorter and shorter as in specials. Always fluctuates. Bet to nowt on manure just dabbling in and out. useful learning curve for me.

Jan 2, 2012 -- 7:59PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

Who's Ji?   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3iQbKNGZis

Ah thought he was that well known BGT typing error. Talking of Jai who the heck gave him with or without you as his first single. Cowell getting his revenge?

I thought QPR were great value for relegation a few days ago, but Christmas farting around never allowed me to get on properly. More marginal value still, perhaps. Fancy Wigan to survive again, maybe even Blackburn

Jan 2, 2012 -- 8:04PM, George Bailey wrote:

Jan  2, 2012 --  7:59PM, GeorgeBrush wrote:Who's Ji?   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3iQbKNGZisAh thought he was that well known BGT typing error. Talking of Jai who the heck gave him with or without you as his first single. Cowell getting his revenge?

Nah, that was when he got back to his roundhouse and found his entre extended family dangling from the rafters

entire*

Yeah I'm on wigan to survive (without their captain v Sunderland mind)and I think Blackburn will or at least go very close. Will lay them I think. I thought pre season with those micky mouse owners they would struggle but never got round to backing them at 4.5s.

Wigan have a captain?  They mean f all in footy tbh

Two very talented managers in the newly promoted sides, yes. And then whinging Warnock. WAC

I like to see the teams that try to play football do well so good luck to swansea etc. Looks like AVB has completely lost the Chelsea dressing room (if he ever had it). Team of old prima donnas used to putting new managers in their place like Leeds and clough. I can see them struggling to make top 4....hey what has this to do with US Elections?

They have no shame in playing to get rid of a manager. Prolly won today by accident   All is good because SAFC go to the bridge in a week or two iirc. Maybe we can finish him off

Some interesting late polling in Iowa.  Laddies have some interesting bets up e.g. gingrich 4/6 to beat perry. Big Mo with santorum and palin seems to be supporting him.  WEST DES MOINES, Iowa -- It's not like we were doubting the Santorum surge, but Public Policy Polling has chirped up with more free proof. The toplines:

    Ron Paul - 20% (-4)
    Mitt Romney - 19% (-1)
    Rick Santorum - 18% (+8)
    Newt Gingrich - 14% (+1)
    Rick Perry - 10% (+0)
    Michele Bachmann - 8% (-3)
    Jon Huntsman - 4% (+0)
    Buddy Roemer - 2% (+0)

Ron Paul's favorable rating is down, which I read as a combination of two things -- criticism of his foreign policy, and voter agita about Kent Sorenson's switch from Team Bachmann to Team Paul. She spent a day whining and accusing Paul of offering a kickback (yes, why else would someone leap off the Titanic?), and both candidates got dinged. Meanwhile, Santorum's favorable rating has spiked up to 60 percent; he's easily the best-liked candidate in the race. Shows what staying obscure and unhurt by attacks for an entire year will do you.

InsiderAdvantage's latest poll numbers, completed Sunday night, find the following shape-up for the Iowa caucuses Tuesday:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — 23 percent

Texas Rep. Ron Paul — 22 percent

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum — 18 percent

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich — 16 percent

Texas Gov. Rick Perry — 10 percent

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann — 6 percent

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman — 2 percent

Other — 1 percent

Undecided — 2 percent

The poll was completed Sunday night after the Des Moines Register poll of 729 Iowa Republicans likely to vote Tuesday and has a statistical error margin of 3.5 percent.

"It's basically a two-tiered race," Matt Towery, chief pollster for InsiderAdvantage, tells Newsmax. "The first tier is Romney, Paul, Santorum, and Gingrich."

The remaining candidates no longer are players in the GOP race for president, Towery said.

The surprise of the poll, Towery said, is how well Gingrich is doing despite "seeing blood everywhere" after the massive pummeling he's taken in local and national TV ads, largely funded by pro-Romney supporters, attacking the former speaker's record.

InsiderAdvantage finds Gingrich at 16 percent — up from the De Moines Register poll's finding of 13 percent. Towery notes that, if Gingrich finishes in fourth place, he'd hold the same position Sen. John McCain had in the 2008 Iowa caucuses.

Towery predicts that Ron Paul will fade quickly after Iowa, leaving the anti-Romney race between Santorum and Gingrich.

The InsiderAdvantage closing survey for Iowa has been the most accurate poll in predicting the winner. The poll foresaw John Kerry's upset over Howard Dean in 2004, Obama's win over Hillary Clinton in 2008, and Mike Huckabee's surprise victory that same year

hi gb, happy new year. pretty sure romney will get the nomination but dont in any way see him beating obama. may well be a trade on a 3.5 though. hope all's good

Yeah Nick fine thanks and all the best too you too mate. Said all along 3.5 (some but not much at 5s+) was a good trade. If romney makes it through he will give obama a run if the economy doesn't pick up. Won't be queues waiting to vote for him this time. Should have a 300 quid guaranteed profit hopefully. Santorum could have been a money maker as well but looks like I can't afford to lay off so one of those "value" bets that turn out to be a wasted 50 quid. Perry may be worth a couple of quid at daft odds as he has the funds to see this through to the bitter end after paul and santorum etc have died the death....Lendl enough for murray to win one?

Romney wins by 8 votes from Santorum in second and Paul in third.

I stayed up all night and watched the caucus from start to finish and never, never has there been a squeakier bum than mind. Mitt was trailing the entire evening by a few votes and the last precint in the last county finally confirms, Romney wins by around 14 votes. Unbelievable.
And what do I get for this? £500, what did I have to lose if Santorum won? £3000...

Too close, too close.

Scratch that, he won by 8 votes.

I watched it too. You can go and change your underpants now. 

ooh scary danzaa, pleased it came through in the end

frankly i think the whole republican campaign has been an absolute horror show. a freakshow. it defies belief that people like perry, cain and gingrich are being even considered...and never mind the nutters in the tea party. it's absolutely pathetic. they are in total disarray.

romney is by far the most credible, but do you know that even he supports no abortion, even after rape or incest. i know its because he has to, but even so. problem for romney is that with him you cant attack obama on all the things the republicans like to attack him on, like healthcare, as romney agrees with him. obama will get another term, and it's damn important he does...i'd be interested to hear what the hawks like henry and fxdux make of the shambles....

re lendl, yeah gb, think its the right call, but it makes bugger all difference to me now...

speak soon

n1 Danzaa.

I almost backed Santorum after looking at the polls.

I'd have been sick. Closer than KK v Paddy

He appeared to have that famous old reality tv show word, the momentum.

started the night -800 Paul, +250 Romney, +1,100 Santorum.

Finished the night -900 Paul, +45 Romney, -150 Santorum.

I'm good at this in running lark

lol sean. Not the best nights trading. You should have had an early night and let the bets run

I paniced on my Paul red after the first few results and backed him hugley at 1.8ish such a silly thing to do after laying him heavily at between 2.0 and 2.5 the last 2 weeks very confidently.

Sickner. Still a win. Santorum would have been a real disaster.

Seems like Santo won Iowa after all. See the thread on political betting.com. This is hanging chads all over again. But jesting aside what will betfair do with the market if Santo is declared the winner in about 10 days' time?

Wow I had him. Will have to look. I thought they all voted on post its (very high tec) and it said there would be no recount.

I'm due something after staying up till 6am

Bollox. 2 votes not 22 mistake and it cost me over a ton I think. What will happen I wonder if reversed? Should bookies have waited for the official result?

On Wednesday morning the big news from the 2012 White House race was that Mitt Romney had squeezed a victory in Iowa by a margin of of just eight votes. This was based on information from the state party HQ where it was being emphasised that this was not a certified result. That would come after signed returns has been received from the 1,700 precincts – a process that would take a fortnight.

This uncertainty is reflected in what the editor of the Spectator, Fraser Nelson, blogged at 7.53am GMT on Wednesday morning:-

    “Instead of white smoke, Iowa is belching thick fog. Mitt Romney has won by, erm, eight votes. At least so we think, the Republicans say that it has to wait until ‘Certified Form E’ will be returned by all the Iowa counties, which will take two weeks, so this gossamer majority may well vanish..”

In spite of the lack of certainty the bookies – including Betfair – settled their markets that morning and paid out on a Romney victory. PaddyPower, in a smart PR move, announced that those who’d bet on Santorum would have their stakes refunded.

Fraser Nelson and others were right to be cautious. Within 24 hours the result was being called into question by what appears to have been a clerical mistake in a precinct in Appanoose County. Nate Silver takes up the story:-

    “The dispute originated when a caucusgoer, Edward True, said in an affidavit that Mitt Romney had been recorded as receiving 22 votes in his precinct, called Washington Wells, when he had in fact received just two votes there on caucus night. Mr. True is a supporter of Representative Ron Paul.

    The Des Moines Register reported on Friday that Lyle Brinegar, the chair of the Republican Party in Appanoose County, agreed with Mr. True’s account of the vote count and disputed the total listed by the state party.

    A third person, Terri Haub, the precinct secretary, also agreed with Mr. True’s account, The Des Moines Register reported….”

Unfortunately the local officials in the precinct submitted a signed official return with the wrong numbers on it and the current position is that the state party is sticking with that. There’s still well over a week to go before the official announcement is made and clearly there will be a lot of argument in the meantime.

If that statement, next week, is that Santorum was the winner then we are going to see a mighty row between bookmakers and punters.

    Given the uncertainty over the outcome on Wednesday morning the bookies were foolhardy to pay out before the official announcement. Iowa could cost them dear.

(DECLARATION OF FINANCIAL INTEREST – I stand to make a four figure sum if Rick Santorum is declared the winner of Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses)
Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Cost me about ten times that George! Here's hoping the result is reversed and betfair does the honourable thing and pays ex-gratia Santo winner

You emailing them phil to see what their position is?

Or waiting for result? PP always first to do the right thing.

Think I will wait for the amended result. PP has refunded stakes on Santo I believe.

Yeah no point before that. the yanks are like a 3rd world country really when it comes to elections.

Romney Florida 1.08 to lay on here, 1.1 to back at PP  and (I think) SJ.

Withdrew my winnings as quick as possible, no reversing it for me!

Have to say if you re-read my original post I have called this almost spot on. Didn't take the 1.5 Romney but am sitting pretty re the Presidency.  50 quid on santorum would/could have led to a profit but just didn't have the funds to trade off on here.  Must be small pickings that arb 1.01 layer? Don't quite follow Danza; what winnings/reversing?

Yes, well done, Mr C. Cloggs .
I've not really been on this one but I've turned a small green, cheers.
That arb's not worth it for the small % return - ties up too much cash for me. I was just pointing it out for value hunters (assuming the bookies aren't giving it away!). No such thing as a cert in politics

No certs with all the nutters in the good old US of A armed to the teeth that's for sure.  And my friends call me C by the way

Decent arb on Gingrich for Rep Nomination for anyone with the access & the bank ,to tie up.

26.0 with Bwin, lay at 12.0 on here

Thanks for heads up kiddo. Not got an account with Bwin...they ok?

They're as bad as any, GB but they have paid me out in the past, although I remember having to jump through a few hoops to get the transfer.  They're very quick to restrict, in my experience, too.

Bit of a drift on Romney in Florida.  A bit of interest in Ginrich nudging the prices.

GB, heard a lot of bad things about them, but found them fine. When I opened an account, they suspended it straight away. Had to "jump through hoops", where they wanted a copy of passport etc. But since then fine. I'm up around €1,500 with them, and still no restrictions. So lot better than a few I could mention...

Just see that is long gone GB, sorry for late reply, wasn't around. Hope you got some, only top price 8s now

Thanks to all for info.  Don't have the bank to trade anyway at the moment all tied up in CBB.

Could be a good time to cover any liability on Romney for sub 1.1 layers in Florida. Trading around evens now.
There seems to be a bot working the market as money keeps coming on and off every few seconds from time to time.

Got interesting with Romney. Had the chance to take a profit but need to sit it out now. For some reason I had 4 quid on Gingrich to be next President which helps balance things but he would still be a loser for me if he wins the nom. Volatile market politics is...one revelation about someone's private life and that could be it.  Though it seems shagging around when your wife is dying is ok now with the Christian right wing neo fascists.

4 quid on at 40/1.

Dec 29, 2011 -- 11:41AM, George Bailey wrote:

Where at Danzaa? Doesn't look to be the liquidity on here. Santorum's turn for his 15mins of fame. Had some 150 president, 50 republican and 14s iowa but whether I have the bank to lay it off on here is another matter. Probably wasted money though if he finishes 3rd or better in iowa his price might come in enough. Romney machine looks like crushing all comers though.

30 quid on Santorum at 50/1 for republican nominee and 20 at 150 for president. Thought it was value originally then thought it was wasted money.  Guess there had to be an anti Romney candidate emerge that the right wingers/religious nutters could buy in to.

It was a damn good call, but an overtly religious guy like him would immediately alienate thinking Americans, then when it comes to staring down Putin or making important decisions, no one will want Santorum doing the job with his geeky hair and clothes. I think that while yes, it was bought at an amazing price - it won't turn into profit.

But I know you knew that too.

Odds now bring it into my trading range

"When it comes to staring down Putin or making important decisions, no one will want Santorum doing the job with his geeky hair and clothes.  But I know you knew that too."

Yeah, that's not a crass over-simplication at all.

They did vote in a thick as pig sh!t simpleton a couple terms ago so I really wouldn't put anything past the American voting public.

"I think that while yes, it was bought at an amazing price - it won't turn into profit. But I know you knew that too". Backed at 50/1 and now 5.3s on here so look like you are wrong Danzaa. Downside was I didn't lay off my Romney when I could have.  As for who wins i was gutted when Kerry looked like winning and got beat and then Gore and the Florida nonsense. Now I just think whoever wins the plutocrats are in charge and the poor get shafted.  All countries get the Governments they deserve.

Your Washington correspondent here.  Primaries tonight. Managed to trade to a santorum 105 quid profit whether he wins or loses in Michigan.  Been astonishing really. santorum is a certifiable religious nutter who comes out with stuff almost designed to alienate everyone bar the hard core evangelicals.  Fortunately for him there are plenty of them who love him and will never vote for a Mormon. Not yet traded any of my big greens on santorum but hoping he pulls it off in Michigan tonight and his price will drop in outrights.  Romney has the money and the party machine.  He also has most of the 19% of early postal voters but santorum has that groundswell that makes this too close to call.  Not everyone's cup of tea but fascinates the hell out of me.

Santorum has pulled out of the race.

Realises he can't win or caught with his trousers down?

Most of this social conservatives rarely practise what they preach.

these*

No scandal, just realising that the game is over. Gingrich is staying in the race to give conservatives "a real choice."

I played this very poorly. Had a chance to make a few hundred trading out my santorum green (santorum brown more apt I guess )but reluctant to tie up so much on here for so long.

I now need romney to go about sub 2.7 to green out. Not certain to happen...mormon...improving economy etc.  I like politics but not an easy market to win on for me.

There was a very interesting show on bbc2 about Romney and his Mormonism a few weeks back.
I thought he was the 'normal' one til I watched it

Plenty of repulicans who are fundamental christians were saying they wouldn't vote for him due to it and wouldn't vote at all if he was the candidate
Well I say plenty. They found 2 , but they claimed to be representative of many other christian republicans

Miised that programme but it got some stick. I think it is basically right that a LOT of nutters see mormonism as a cult and won't vote for him. I think my original post was pretty accurate.

I made the mistake of laying obama at evens when the economy was going t1ts up otherwise I'd have had a decent back to lay.

Still waiting for BF to settle a March 6th primary. Only 20 quid so I will just wait and see how long before they pay up out of curiosity.

I'm still waiting for them to settle Ohio too. I hope they are not going to wait until the convention to settle.

They got burned settling too soon on another one. TBF they gave the "losers" their money back.  Googling it it seems it takes about 4 weeks to officially announce the result.

Ohio settled.

Thanks wondered where that extra cash had come from

Original post not too far away now. Gay marriage and crappy jobless figures has seen romney come in to 2.58.  Once the nomination is confirmed and it is a 2 horse race with a 100% overround he will be 2.3 at least.

can't see beyond Obama.
Romney too creepy even for the right wing loons.

Never said Romney would win...he doesn't need to for me

But don't be surprised if even at 1.69 v 2.54 as it is now that there is a flip flop at some point.

spoils 2.75 romney which is generous if anyone can get on. Limited to 20 quid. 2.56 here. imo certain to go lower than that.

2.5 now on here with a huge wad waiting too be laid. 2.3 soon. Spoils for some reason still have 2.75 up.