Specials
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28 Dec 11
20:34
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Date Joined:
04 Apr 10
Don't know if there is a thread for this so here's one anyway. May be only me interested and if so I guess by definition it becomes a blog 
My take on it at the moment is that Romney is disliked by the evangelical right wing but has the support of the moderates, pragmatists and a lot of the independents. I've had a good bet on him for the presidency at 5/2 on the HS and on here at 5s down to 3.15. I think he is a shoo in for the republican nomination if only because the rest for various reasons have ruled themselves out. Romney is the only one who will give Obama a run for his money and I expect him to trade at 2.3 at some point. Primaries offer betting opportunities as well. Even at 1/2 to get the nomination he seems value as his real chances are 70%+.
My take on it at the moment is that Romney is disliked by the evangelical right wing but has the support of the moderates, pragmatists and a lot of the independents. I've had a good bet on him for the presidency at 5/2 on the HS and on here at 5s down to 3.15. I think he is a shoo in for the republican nomination if only because the rest for various reasons have ruled themselves out. Romney is the only one who will give Obama a run for his money and I expect him to trade at 2.3 at some point. Primaries offer betting opportunities as well. Even at 1/2 to get the nomination he seems value as his real chances are 70%+.
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Iowa Caucus on Jan 3rd is interesting. Ron Paul is ahead in the polls and so 1.95 to win. Romney spent millions there in 2008 and still got beat by Huckabee. He's 2.5 but this could be value. Looks like a 2 horse race and the "anyone but Romney" right wingers' vote is split amongst a few candidates. Paul has just been revealed as a homophobic racist and the polls haven't caught up with this yet; nor the betting. Not saying anything other than Romney looks the value or else Paul a lay.
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Surely a homophobic racist should be 1.01?
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Good point but this ain't the XF. Plenty of religious nutters will be ok with this but in the end the pragmatists who want a serious candidate to take on Obama will prevail.
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Looking at the sudden activity on this rather slow market looks like someone is reading this
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Presume as it's one of your tips it's heading the other way gb?
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Just placed £1500 on Paul to win Iowa caucus. No I'm not joking.
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Where at Danzaa? Doesn't look to be the liquidity on here. Santorum's turn for his 15mins of fame. Had some 150 president, 50 republican and 14s iowa but whether I have the bank to lay it off on here is another matter. Probably wasted money though if he finishes 3rd or better in iowa his price might come in enough. Romney machine looks like crushing all comers though.
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Paddies, Laddies, Boils and StanJames. Sadly BF is a waste of time with most specials markets.
Santorum is a bit of a non-entity for me but who knows. Romney seems like the obvious leader of the Republican Nom. market but his polling is surprisingly weak for his price so no value there, however saying that, he'll probably get it. The Iowa caucus one for me is a bit of a punt, if I feel it's getting too hot, I'll probably lay Paul off and stick some on Romney to even up. |
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Only slybet and freddies going 5/2 romney now. freddies limited me to 50 quid. Just can't see any of the current candidates beating him and its too late I think for anyone new to come forward now. 5/2 on HS and 2/1 on here is an easy trade anyway.
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Crap, new allegations about the Paul campaign surface. True or not, they really are a bunch of ****s in US politics.
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How new? Not the newsletters? watched Bruno with Sasha Baron Cohen; he stitched Paul up like a kipper.
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Latest Rasmussen poll; Romney 45% v Obama 39%. Like I say only one who can beat Obama. The evangelical Republicans will hold their noses and vote for a mormon "pro" abortionist if it means power. Just like the Tories they think they are born to rule.
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This week's Economist leads with an analysis "The Right Republican". It concludes, sadly that they may not yet even be in the running and doesn't rule out Bush, Daniels or Christie.
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Jumped ship in the Iowa Caucus bet, Romney looks like he'll take this by a few % right now and he'll be doing a big push for votes towards the 3rd.
Paul is by far the best candidate IMO and he has some crazy dedicated supporters (which remind me a bit of BB Aaron) but every poll fails to reflect that. Also worth betting at Laddies on Ron Paul vote %, anything between 15% - 25% is garuanteed. |
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Paul is a racist homopohobe so God help us all if he is the best they have. Always a danger that a late entrant could come forward but these days they would need to have the ground operation in place to get the names to be on the ballots in each state. Gingrich couldn't manage to do it in 6 months in his own state.
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The Republican Party is the party of racist homophobes. I feel the racism charge at Paul is a smear and not actually true when looked into. However, the nature of these things is that I couldn't care less if they voted a rubber duck for president, I just want to make money off the winner.
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Nah he knew what was in those leaflets and made money from them. Only 35% of Iowan republicans find him acceptable as a candidate compared to 50% for romney. Re 1.01 layer 70% don't think jeb bush should even run. Iowa a close call given the fanaticism of paul supporters and a possible low turn out. As someone said above this could be Aaron BB Mark II. Romney 2.94 for president on here so 5/2 looking better all the time. Stick or twist? can see him going as low as evens maybe if just obama v romney.
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Are they allowing Facebook multi-voting now?
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No but they are considering allowing afro americans to vote in Florida.
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I seriously considered backing Romney for arounf £6k at 5/1 for Republican Nominee a few months ago but decided against cos of the thread from...Rick Perry...*sigh*.
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Great call on Santorum, I have no money on Republican Nomination market, all I care about is who comes 1st in Iowa. I'm still relatively happy with Romney and see Santorum as a definite maybe. If Santorum wins it's a big loss for me. Rumour has it he's ahead of Paul.
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Yeah down to 50s best price on HS for president and as low as 10/1 for republican nomination. 3k if president and 1500 for nomination. Small green on Iowa. As above I don't have the bank to take a profit on here and tie money up for months so I really need a minor miracle ie 1st or 2nd in Iowa and then crashes to short prices. Could happen i guess.
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Santorum is 50/50 to take 2nd in Iowa methinks, just a feeling.
I screwed up early on by backing Ron Paul, he does have some definite BB Aaron qualities about him on the web. Any article you read on the Iowa caucus just has Ron Paul comments below. I then jumped ship to Romney and placed a fair amount there, but now Santorum is bringing up the rear, and if he wins, I'll be getting it up the rear too as I'm totally red on him. |
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Almost too close to call in iowa. You can make a case for all 3...romney is seen as able to beat obama and has spent big there ...paul has a fanatical core base (hence all the comments you refer to)who will definitely vote...santorum has worked the state for ages and is peaking at the right time, seems many of the conservative/evangelical republicans are gravitating towards him now he is seen as a runner. I'm only in very small on this with ironically santorum my only green.
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There's not much cash about. More in the Finnish election market.
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People are going crazy for that Finnish election market. It's all my friends are talking about.
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Thought you were joking but nice market. Completely under my radar. Who is betting on it...Finns in Finland I guess? My luck must be in backed overs 2.5 and Fulham to win. Only won a tenner mind. Like melv says people bet when they get bored so I keep it low.
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I guess there are more Finns than Americans on here ;)
Lots of them play poker. |
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Loads of mad footy results at Christmas, every year. I bet somebody always makes a killing out of it
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Is Twitter open to all of Europe? Wonder why there aren't more such markets? maybe there are and I've not noticed them. I'm still crossing my fingers the yanks are allowed on here soon. The yank specials are easier to read than ours. Can't recall any of what we would call "shocks". Just the lousy liquidity stops it being a potential gold mine.
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If noms for 2012 spoty closed today I'd fancy Ji
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Like that bloke who was snogging him
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Who's Ji?
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Yeah, never really appealed to me gb. Do a bit on the relegation markets, but can't be arsed much. If I was ft I'd do a lot more for sure
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Has everyone spotted the "santorum" google thing? Hilarious. A few years ago to get revenge for his anti gay stuff gays had a contest to come up with a meaning for "santorum". The winner was someone who said it was the frothy mix of lube and fecal matter after anal sex. Now its higher than him in google. Could be a serious issue for him if he wins iowa.
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Haha, love it. Won't be a serious issue sadly (for me).
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