SPOTY 2012 starts here....

I would nominate that for post of the spoty year

Eldrick I think

Dec 17, 2012 -- 3:44AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

I would nominate that for post of the spoty yearEldrick I think

Yeah, I did question it as well but I'm a bit of YouGov fan so assumed they'd complied well.  Which poll was closest in the end?

The much maligned tv polls

Dec 17, 2012 -- 3:55AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

The much maligned tv polls

In hindsight seems obvious really - audience is TV viewers - TV polls?

yougov have perfect methods. But they totally fail on this where a certain proportion (Brad's 19%) are far more motivated than the rest

Mind, they did do slightly better than with Cav

All the click through web polls turned out to be better than the scientific yougov approach   

Motivation to vote innit

High, sorry haven't followed this thread very closely - what was the Yougov showing?

Brad 19 Jess 19  Mo 15

To be fair they did also have a category for those likely to watch and vote and Brad was 7% clear on that, but everyone looked at that headline figure

Where was that GB? In the paper?

The poll still isn't on their site.

Am I quoting survation on that second bit?

Dec 17, 2012 -- 6:12AM, GeorgeBrush wrote:

Brad 19 Jess 19  Mo 15To be fair they did also have a category for those likely to watch and vote and Brad was 7% clear on that, but everyone looked at that headline figure

Ah! That pretty well explains it then - shows the importance of key information.

I may have got that confused with survation, not sure

Survation had Wiggins top with those likely or very likely to vote.

Still waiting for Yougov to publish theirs.

Compared to how in depth their XF polls are, their SPOTY one was shyte last year.

I wonder if it was more in depth this year

Only 1700 responders compared to 6500 on XF

Makes no difference I think. Their methods are just flawed on this

To correct what I said to stu, survation had Jess 21  Brad 19, but Brad ahead 7% on those most likely to vote

On XF I guess each candidate has more similar levels of multivoters. Though James won much easier than they predicted - we know that was because they missed off the teens

They just needed to ask the simple question, do you have a lycra fetish?

Jess would have got more than 19%

Aren't all cycling fans gay Guardian readers?

Apparently not

Just asking around blokes   I just found cycling is starting to replace footy in many affections

The missus's James Arthur ipad arrived this morning. I tested it out by watching some filth and then couldn't work out how to clear the browsing history, so it comes up with xhamster all the time

It does seem that cycling is the new snooker and many, including myself underestimating it's appeal.

Helped by News International pushing the tedious sport no doubt.

underestimated*

Cycling the new cricket/rugger perhaps

Not long before sky just buy up all the coverage I guess

Strange that they sponsor the winning team and don't even show it.

Yes, I did notice the flaw in your previous statement

I bet they had Wiggins all over their papers though.

I haven't bought one for years, but I did read on here that Wiggins was on the front page, or back page of the Times and that the Sun was giving away Wiggins side burns during the Olympics

There were sound enough reasons to take Wiggins on at a short price. The true value gem was Muzza for a top 3 finish - couldn't believe how that price drifted last night. It was like Christmas come early.

Post of the SPOTY year, GB? My vote would go to this one;

ColinLewis 23 Dec 11 13:48 
There will be a host of sports people with Gold medals, so what is needed is something to distinguish someone from the rest.

The Tour De France course will suit Wigins this year (plenty of time trials). He is as low as 8/1 to win the Tour.

He will then go straight to the Olympics where he should pick up gold in the team pursuit. if he bags that double then 100/1 each way 1/5 123 with Ladcrooks for SPOTY is MASSIVE!!!! (Particularly as the cyclists have proved they have the backing to win this show).

100/1 is stand out and won't last long. He is 20/1 and 14/1 for SPOTY elsewhere.

Do yourselves a favour and get on today!




I know it has been already been highlighted, but he surely deserves a second bit of cap-doffing.

Yes, top tipping.

Yep, was highlighted earlier in year. Didn't Colin even get a 5k payout from Laddies in July?

Prolly still on the cruise, he ain't been back to get our plaudits

He did get paid early

He posted Saturday

Hope he chucked his 5k back on Wiggo at evens

With laddies

Clear enough I guess with Wiggins getting the raw edit. Although predicting that was part of why Wiggins was opposable at the Sunday morning prices.
I don't think I made any mistakes though. In the morning Wiggins was around 72% and Jess 13%.

I reckon that's the specials post of the year, never mind just SPOTY.

The Baloney train was a stand-out highlight, but getting paid out on Wiggo twice is money from heaven!

For me the surprise was Wiggins holding up when the bbc assassination attempt became clear. Odds-against looked certain and I was going to back him then!

Yep, that caught me out

The money buyers had the last laugh on this one, and I had to become one of them

On what and why did Laddies pay out in July Dizzy?  Yes brilliant shout from Colin.

They paid out on Wiggo spoty in July

Were you on a saga ship somewhere?

After the time trial anyway, might have been early August

Yeah probably cruising . Thought it was only PP that went for the cheap publicity of paying out early? How did people get paid twice then? Not literally?

Its the special event that least interests me except the last few weeks but that may change given how easy it was to nail it. Ironically I posted a while back that I would just wait till the night and go by twitter...kind of did that.

Was just speculating Colin could have piled his 5k win back onto wiggo

Evening gents. A fantastic year for me SPOTY wise.

5k early pay out.

Another 2k last night with 365 who didn't pay early.

Topped up with a forecast 7/2 WIG ENNIS.

Then but a wedge on Murray top 3 during show at 3/1. Starting with a clean book the Murray bet was probably the best bet of the year.

Sorting my long shot out for 2013 - need to get money on - then I'll post in the SPOTY2013 thread.

Good luck all

So many tasty bets appeared last night it was difficult to focus...murray top 3 wiggins/ennis f/c, weir v ellie and hoy v rory match bets (hoy the banker bet for me, wiggins when he drifted to 1.8.....all a bit too much for me but still a win however modest is a win.

Look forward to your tip Colin...might read it this year

Dec 17, 2012 -- 3:36PM, ColinLewis wrote:

Evening gents. A fantastic year for me SPOTY wise.5k early pay out.Another 2k last night with 365 who didn't pay early.Topped up with a forecast 7/2 WIG ENNIS.Then but a wedge on Murray top 3 during show at 3/1. Starting with a clean book the Murray bet was probably the best bet of the year.Sorting my long shot out for 2013 - need to get money on - then I'll post in the SPOTY2013 thread.Good luck all

aftertimer

2013 tip posted.

I didn't even realise rugby league was classed as a sport

ha ha

southern softy

sporting bet will let you get a decent wedge on. rest are severely restricting.

lol, I'm from further north than you - nap

some mean posts on here, it was a shameful run of bets, but it is what it is. wiggins was a deserving winner, and someone slated laying boston bob at 1.2, he went 2.7 IR so im not sure about that

Thankyou Jim for your help mate and others. darlo im not a WUM, anyway shant post on this thread again just felt i needed to respond. Going to have another go at this betting malark this weekend and hopefully be a bit more shrewd and forget about last weeks travesty and dont stake too much and in haste,

thanks and good luck punting to all,

rog

let us know how you get on rog ....good luck

After the last time I went on chase, which is years ago now, I started documenting all my bets using a simple points system. Sounds cheesy but it's really effective so you have a maximum bet, whatever happens. I still (tacitly) use it now.  There are probably not many of the Specialists on here that haven't gone on the chase at some point.

Not so much now,but earlier in my gambling life I was certainly susceptible to chasing,which was poor after watching numerous occasions of people doing this when I was running a bookies.
I now don't leave any surplus cash in gambling accounts as a safety valve against doing it again.The time spent having to deposit cash to bet can often help to take away the urge to chase.Good luck Roger.

taking the time to deposit cash when I have forgotten my 3 numbers on the card and had to go upstairs to collect it has cost me a lot a few times

Good thing about Specials is your book is usually sorted come final night so if in the rare event of losing there are no opportunities to chase when it's over.  Unless you go looking for South American football or something....if so seek professional help.

think i need professional help! i won 2 grand earlier and just blew it all now. on 3 ridiculous bets needing late goals. cant seem to shake the loose betting which befell me last week.

cider what is the pointing system, how does it work? i dont need your numbers as such but say starting with a 1000 pound betting bank. betting when tired is ridiculous, just lost 2 grand in half an hour. Have i not learnt a think from last week :(

Dec 22, 2012 -- 1:55PM, rogerthatletmetrywithanotherfilm wrote:

think i need professional help! i won 2 grand earlier and just blew it all now. on 3 ridiculous bets needing late goals. cant seem to shake the loose betting which befell me last week.cider what is the pointing system, how does it work? i dont need your numbers as such but say starting with a 1000 pound betting bank. betting when tired is ridiculous, just lost 2 grand in half an hour. Have i not learnt a think from last week :(

I think you have to remember these things:

1) Never bet more than you are comfortable losing.

2) Find an edge (whatever this may be) - for me it's backing short odds - others hate doing this - whatever works for you.

3) Ultimately though it is gambling which can be very addictive and the lows feel so much worse than the highs.

Stick to specials then you aren't gambling

I used to be a gambler, always doing my b0ll0x. Since I`ve become a Specials trader, I`m finding it hard to lose. Except, of course, when I revert to my bad old ways and go for the all-or-nothing approach. Less dramatic wins, for sure, but solid bank-building. Most Specials markets last for months, so plenty of time to correct any mistakes, particularly with the help of this forum.
It requires a change in mindset, but for the last 7 years, every morning when I wake up, I have been able to say to myself `tim, you`re a WINNER!`If I may say, in all modesty, people sometimes ask me the secret. I ask them: `do you want fun? Or, do you want to win? You are clearly looking for adrenalin fixes of fun, I am looking to win.`After 30 years of losing, the warm glow this provides more than makes up for missing the occasional big winner.
Some of this post may well sound big-headed, `look at how clever I am`. Please allow me to declare myself an absolute numpty, with no great skills at all. That is the whole beauty of trading, any idiot can do it.
Most regulars on here don`t have one bet, sit back, and hope for the best. Most regulars on here are long term winners. That is no coincidence. Try it.


If you cannot do this, then the first thing to say to you is that you are risking far, far, too much of your bank with your bets. Your whole bank, done, in three bets? 33% of your bank on ANYTHING is not the way forward. Most long term winners wouldn`t be risking  more than 5%-10% on any one bet.

To win long term, you have to have that elusive `edge` over your opponents. Specials is a good place to gain an easy edge because so many `casuals` make the basic error of believing `the best` will win. The smallest bit of research will tell you otherwise, allowing you to be more knowledegable than the casuals. There`s the start of your edge. The more research, the bigger your edge. The bigger your edge, the more you win.

Well said Sir.  can't remember the last time I lost overall on a specials. Unless you count 30 quid on the last USA XF when I had a daft bet before the lives and then couldn't be arsed with it after that. Big mistake actually as I'm pretty good at the USA specials given the redneck MEMs basically decide them all.

I'm surprised I do as well as I do as I invariably handicap myself with stupid bets before the off e.g. Nicky/Pendleton big greens, Ella (1600 quid or similar at 6/4) etc etc.  This time its Shayne Ward

That`s my point, entirely, GB2. The only loser you remember is an outright bet, which you didn`t trade, dutch, arb, or whatever. Trade, trade, trade.

Its odd though.  trading lets me claw back initial stupid positions but if I had say 2k to punt but only on every finals night i wonder if I wouldn't end up with the same profit or more. That said I would be looking at big reds whereas this way whilst bottling it and being red free can be frustrating as its basically money down the spout its good for the old ticker on the night.

In answer to roger

(this was before I started on Specials)

I started with £1k bank, allocated £10 per point on a scale 1 - 5 points. It still allows for (strong) bets and pressing up, but still keeping to max 5 points. Maintained a tracker for profit and loss. You have to try and forget about previous losses now, they are sunk and not recoverable. The only thing you can affect is the future. It is easier than done, but every bet should have a perceived value attached to it. Be patient and wait for opportunities, they will come. Teach yourself that the market is often wrong and read up on the wisdom of crowds. Very importantly, compare your price to the market price. Only play when there is a significant percentage in your favour (perceived).

can i say what a pleasure and breath of fresh air this thread, and this part of the forum is. timbuctooth, gb2 and cider thankyou.

i was half expecting some responses to my post such as troll, wum, loser etc etc but thought out and considered helpful responses were what i found.

tim i think youve hit the nail o nthe head. i was betting moderately and carefully and built up a great bank, but had a massive wobbly last weekend, culminating in my 1000 pounds on ennis. RIDICULOUS. i waited a week started a fresh with a bank but soon found myself thinking of last weeks losses and trying to hit those heights. I definitely have that lack of self control, or maybe veen greed to win back whati once had, or a pride thing, to say that isnt good enough, but i guess what i garnish from your posts is that there isnt a problem with wanting that, the problem is wanting it back so quick. so i guess less i can learn a little patiences and take pride in slowly winning it back, i shouldnt try at all.

thanks once again, really truly appreciate your commnets and i will remember in future that the specials thread is actually quite a nice place to post thoughts and ideas regarding the specials markets and indeed strategis for betfair.

thanks again,

rog

If it helps the other really important thing is to walk away and have a break.  If I remember some hefty losses I've had it's usually when chasing previous losses and not waiting for an opportunity.

Opportunities always come but patience is the key.

Very similar story to Tim here.
I blew my wages in a single afternoon in the bookies on many an occasion in my teens and twenties.
It hurts like hell and can lead to you beating yourself up and a general downward spiral of doing the same the folllowing week
You eventually reach the point where you either give up or learn some discipline and put the hard work in that it takes to win in the long term.
I did the latter, as I'm a stubborn bastard. First on horse racing and now on specials.
The idea of chsing doesn't really even enter my head these days. The only times I take a hit now is when I become complacent and lazy and don't do enough research.

Specialising is the key for me. Only bet on things you know more than most about.

Long term winning can be rather dull, but is ultimately much more satisfying than the short term adrenaline rush of having all your cash on the last winner at chepstow.

GL Roger.

Interesting tales.  Cheers for sharing folks.

Golden Rule No 1 losing is worse than winning is good

Cider put excellently into words what I have always been explaining to people - "You have to try and forget about previous losses now, they are sunk and not recoverable."

So there is no "i'll get it back the next race, event" whatever.  It's gone - move onwards, start afresh.  Sometimes you just have to accept it's not your day, tournament, etc.,  and take a step back.

And look at it over the long term - not day by day or even week by week.  Try and look at it over the course of a year like a salary.  I know plenty of people who are great at winning but can't cope with losses.  Losses are fine if you make make money over the long term, so if you make, say, £5K one month and lose, say £1500 the next it's not a problem as long as the downward spiral doesn't continue.  I've known people be euphoric over the first month in that example and then unable to cope with the second so then change everything they're doing or give up or go on tilt.

Excellent advice guys. Been on here a long time, but only started doing this semi-seriously a couple of years ago. Some things I do to isolate betting activities from day to day stuff, mostly fairly obvious really..

Create an online bank account solely for betting - ONLY EVER use this account for betting.

Keep an annual spreadsheet of all bets - I only tend to play long-term markets like the usual Specials, F1, and footy promotion/relegation - so I have 1 excel workbook per event, with how much tied up in each event logged on a main sheet so I dont over-extend in 1 particular market over another. This is important towards the end if your playing Spoty, SCD, Xfactor and others all at the same time. Every gets logged on a main sheet that keeps overall Profit/Losses.

I try to not carry over bets every year end  - nows a good time to take a break and take stock as theres nothing much carrying over into next year - and produce a yearly summary. Review what went well and what didnt. Maybe allocate more of your bank to more successful markets.

I've had 2 good years - in no small amount helped by the regulars on here, but also helped by having this disciplined approach.

Time I moved up a gear next year. Said the same last year but another year's experience under my belt.  Just need to be prepared to risk a 2k loss over 7 specials or so; I trust my instincts/knowledge to win in 6 out of 7 so lets go for it.

No reason why a 5 figure win like GB managed on SCD isn't possible for most of us regulars really.  Of course it will bring its own problems of PC and closed accounts I guess.  Almost like a final bank job for professional villains

I tried moving up a gear and had my worst year since I've been keeping detailed records Which is 5 years

Mostly down to BB being a washout, poor liquidity on here and finding it harder and harder to get on with the HS.

Yes, when the above described by FLL occur this "game" can very quickly go from being remarkably straightforward and almost too easy to frustrating, demoralising and difficult.

And quite often when you're confident and on a high and move up a division in this and other things, it often seems to coincide with a poor run, series, whatever.

Tempting fate I know but given I never really lose on any special just upping my stakes should do the trick really over the full year. I have the bank to do it now. Could even lay a few of the false favs.

If DVO had been leaked as winning the vote, if Haye had struck a chord with the MEMs and if I had stuck to my original thoughts with James I'd have been fecked big style.

But my instincts proved sound and where it didn't I shifted position quick enough to win anyway.

Always worried that there won't be another Loreen, Denise Walsh, Julian etc....but there always is thank goodness.

It's not always down to size of bank though GB2.

If the liquidity is lower on here and the HS restrict you further then you can't up your stakes.

That's tru and the restrictions are starting to happen...spreadbetting an option?

They restrict you too

ah..read their bumf last night and sounded too good to be true

wot FLL says sadly ^^^

oh well why be greedy? While I still have a job this is really my hobby that pays for itself. A grand win each one is fine and the occasional 2k or 3k more than enough

...need the odd big win as Mrs B is insisting on a balcony with the cruise from now on

That's the other reason why this year hasn't been great. None of my outside punts have paid off this year, whereas in previous years I've always had one, two or more who have either won or traded very short.

You knew Loreen at 6/1 before anyone...ye of little faith

That's not a big price winner tho.

Albania top 10 and I think a couple of XF elims were my only double figure winners. Oh and Leane @ 50/1, but only had a tenner Other outsiders were my main bets in the Voice.

I was never really on the Baloney Express, which was a 20+ winner if you backed and laid at the right time.
Totally missed  Ash in IAC, plus Adam and Deana who were the only 2 really good trades in BB.

Not a big price no but if I had followed my maths and instincts on that one it could easily have been my 10k profit.  We both missed Ashley but I had less excuse to...

I guess all roads lead to rome profit wise if you have enough cash/liquidity/confidence...big early price, lay the false fav, build your book by backing others around the false fav, wait till the final night by which time winner is usually obvious etc.

...trading a point here and a point there to build up an all green book

Dec 24, 2012 -- 1:56PM, George Bailey wrote:

...trading a point here and a point there to build up an all green book

That's never been my method. Building a big position on runner and then laying when the price tumbles (hopefully) has always been my way.

No didn't mean that was your method. I'd say I was a bit of all of them.

You swing all ways GB2

Yup at least until my next d1ck reduction op

Seems like Jessica throws the javelin further than mo farrah !

Bar a couple what a bunch of bland wusses they were.  I used to like Superstars but they managed to make it boring.

This multi eventing is p1ss easy though

nah when it comes to multi eventing plenty on here show how it should be done....porn, specials and poker...all about discipline and the will to win

I've done all 3 when AI is on.

liquidity is fine if you have a few shops nearby. the luxury with specials is they develop over some time unlike other sports where most betting is over a day

A thoroughly deserving winner it seems ....

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/4720667/Sir-Bradley-Wiggins-Sports-Personality-of-the-Year-trophy-chained-to-the-bar-at-his-local.html