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Welsh Open 2020, isn't it?!?

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By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:10
oh shon
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:10

Feb 15, 2020 -- 11:08PM, wondersobright wrote:


if the big boy wins, he'll either have to sweat it out @ 6/4 or give away most of his prof to cut his losses


he'll sweat it out and win or lose

By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:10
his staking is mad imo but GL to him
By:
Latalomne
When: 15 Feb 20 23:10
Pretty much what he said with the Belgian dartsmith he laid for the semi (?)
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:10
not too much luck though I want bingtao in the final
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:11
his staking is mad. but I can sometimes understand when he's opposing pure mugs like Tom Ford etc. but it's madness when he's trying to oppose players with genuine talent
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:11
from time to time big rags do wins these events though
By:
Latalomne
When: 15 Feb 20 23:12
5hit happens, though.  All you're doing playing 1/100 pokes is delaying the inevitable.
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:12
yeah like when Mark King won the Northern Irish
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:12
exactly
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:12
matt selt too
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:12
yuelong made the final a few weeks back
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:12

Feb 15, 2020 -- 11:12PM, Latalomne wrote:


5hit happens, though.

By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:13
yes unless you've got a final destination. maybe you can get away with doing 1 bet a week over say 25 weeks, then that's it. stop and take your money. but if you keep going and going you're eventually get run over by the steamroller
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:13
I know a lot of chalk has won this week but bucket bags & short format its dangerous imo laying big odds
By:
Latalomne
When: 15 Feb 20 23:13
It's a poor use of a bag of sand as well, IMHO.
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:14
yeah if you are good at identifying value & bet to some sensible fractional kelly, no reason why you can't end up with 10 bags with hard work & discipline
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:14
he's trying to pick up pennies infront of a slow moving steamroller
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:15
leicester couldn't win the premier league remember
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:15
yes. but on the converse how many times did Man Utd win the Premier League?
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:16
it's swings and roundabouts. but if you're doing what he's doing for a long term strategy with no end point, you'll lose. the odds are against you
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 15 Feb 20 23:16
If he is getting value he will do well, with an exit strategy. But I sense he is not getting value often so it's a slow way to lose money in the long run.
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:16
@ 5000/1 you are out of the game laying a winner
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:17
not that you can lay 5000 on here but you get my point
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:17

Feb 15, 2020 -- 11:16PM, wisewords wrote:


it's swings and roundabouts. but if you're doing what he's doing for a long term strategy with no end point, you'll lose. the odds are against you


I put the odds up on here a few weeks ago, its roughly 100/1 him doing what he is doing & winning the 10 bags

By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:18
it boils down to the fact it's probably easy to pick 10 losing 100/1 shots with a bit of research and knowledge. but picking 1000 losing 100/1 shots is going to be significantly harder. you're going to slip up eventually
By:
peckerdunne
When: 15 Feb 20 23:18
not to forget boys he's withdrawing his original bank as he goes 33% plus taken 50% profit on initial bank
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:19
peck what he's doing will make money in the short term in all likelihood but in the long run is a losing strategy
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:20
it's like if I layed Newcastle United to win the FA Cup year after year after year, going all in every time. eventually Newcastle United are going to lift the trophy aren't they, but it might take 50 years
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:20
Shaun's gassed here
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:21
anything that diverts away from kelly is non-optimal
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:21
shotttttttttt
By:
Latalomne
When: 15 Feb 20 23:22
Plain
By:
wisewords
When: 15 Feb 20 23:22
JV not happy with Yan Bigboy here
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:22
do the 2 reds not pot?
By:
Latalomne
When: 15 Feb 20 23:23
Do now Laugh
By:
peckerdunne
When: 15 Feb 20 23:23
not disagreeing but in his mind he is risking less each bet

although it is actually more

if he gets his bag back he will then be getting a freeroll each time withdrawing more

you must remember its O/R so he does not blow up in one match
By:
peckerdunne
When: 15 Feb 20 23:24
Wise your example is WRONG
By:
Angela Rebecchi
When: 15 Feb 20 23:24
How are you following his bets ?
By:
wondersobright
When: 15 Feb 20 23:24
flawed mindset

he's either all in or not far off being all in on every bet

has 1 outcome & it won't be to schalke's liking
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