Snooker
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Watched a fair bit of the baize this last few weeks, although the big one is a stayers event with some course specialists.
Selby been rubbish lately, but a different animal upped in trip. In my eyes he is the fav, but 5/1 still not big enough trying to defend.
Hawkins looks value at 33/1 joke oral. Been consistent, but with plenty chokes thrown in. Getting over the line last week must have helped immensely though.
Anyone over 40 can forget it, except Ronnie. I don't see him winning without a plum passage, there are a few now who fancy it against him. Selby obviously, and Hawkins who did for him last year. Even the Butcher took him out on his glory run. Yes a few golden oldies have prospered this season, but the physical and mental stamina required here makes it highly unlikely. (Dracula in 1978 the last 40+ world champ) Ron has kept himself fit, all credit to him for this it aids the mental stamina as well.
I feel the shortlist is pretty short, Judd is obviously a fly in the ointment, unbackable but could just as easily romp it in a coming of age storm.
Bazza looks the value one at this stage, I would expect him to trade a lot shorter than 33s.
Selby been rubbish lately, but a different animal upped in trip. In my eyes he is the fav, but 5/1 still not big enough trying to defend.
Hawkins looks value at 33/1 joke oral. Been consistent, but with plenty chokes thrown in. Getting over the line last week must have helped immensely though.
Anyone over 40 can forget it, except Ronnie. I don't see him winning without a plum passage, there are a few now who fancy it against him. Selby obviously, and Hawkins who did for him last year. Even the Butcher took him out on his glory run. Yes a few golden oldies have prospered this season, but the physical and mental stamina required here makes it highly unlikely. (Dracula in 1978 the last 40+ world champ) Ron has kept himself fit, all credit to him for this it aids the mental stamina as well.
I feel the shortlist is pretty short, Judd is obviously a fly in the ointment, unbackable but could just as easily romp it in a coming of age storm.
Bazza looks the value one at this stage, I would expect him to trade a lot shorter than 33s.
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Hawkins 33?? Thats generous...you won't get 20s on here. Even with his customary winning post wobbles, he's got real pedigree. A definite top contender for me
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Probably forgot to update their prices after last week
 Generally 16-22 with 25 in a couple of places. Joke be down to 16s if they take 3 ponys at double carpet. |
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Hawkins was definitely value at 33s,looks like he could play for a month and not get tired bit more self belief probably one of the favs..
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Soon gobbled up gig, joe running for cover down to 16s.
I reckon he's a 12-14/1 shot, there are 8 ahead of him in the betting I think there should be 2 or 3. |
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Think you can now safely say,although he is one of the more experienced players undoubtedly has improved with age and just needs to be a winner think the only plare that he might choke against is o'sullivan if he gets knocked out then he may still be value later in tournament.
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Lots of pressure om mark as well,would have to be back to back wins very difficult and a rariety would also take him into one of goat status,has to be taken on although I think he will win another anyway before he retires at least.Early exit against some nobody should be some crazy odds on price,if not 1st rd then 2nd..Think the tournament you can only bet on when you see the quarters,as I always think trump is more likely to really play once he hits a semi final similarly ding.Definitely won't be betting till quarters,can't see trump getting to a semi final and not playing well over that amount of frames similarly ding,the problem is them getting there..
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For me its Ding or Trump hope they are drawn to meet in the final.
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So a lay of Ding and Trump is a cast iron money maker...........
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The Hawk or Higgins for me. Ding is terrible imo. Trump possibly.
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Higgins is an awful price. I was on at 25/1 last year and he went out with a whimper v Alan angles McManus ffs.
Over 40 and unfit, has been awful this calendar year. Priced up on past achievements, look at his 2011 win he was at least a stone lighter. |
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I've been backing Liang Wenbo for a while for this, he's a big runner for me. He's got stones, which so many of them lack nowadays.
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does he? he's extremely twitchy and can't be trusted on the most basic of shots in my opinion
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He's won a ranking tournament this season mate, that would suggest he's got a small level of control of basic shots.
And he's an 80/1 chance, when several inferior players are priced much shorter. |
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A ranking tournament as well, in which he played out of his skin in the semi and the final.
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Admittedly, he was rancid against Hawkins in Germany the other day, truly shocking.
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He's my only crucible bet so far. I think if anything he's got too much stones cos he ends up going for crazy shots at times. Needs to be more patient. Sure he can be twitchy and miss the odd easy one, no more than any other player I think bar maybe O'Sullivan, selby and one or two others.
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he's just too erratic for me but the tour isn't exactly filled with consistency right now
selby scraping through it because everybody else is too poor would probably be my guess but I would like to see Fu win it |
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So would I, but he can't precisely because he lacks minerals.
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4-2 up against snooker's biggest ever choker the other night - beaten first to six.
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On recent form, you'd have to say Fu is right up there. Most improved player in the game over the past year. Didn't thin k he looked comfortable for whatever reason against Day, whether it was a wonky tip or something. I'd forgive him that one anyway. Like his chance but last time i backed him for the worlds he was around 150 so just can't get interested at less than 20
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Pecker,
Laying Trump is like winning the unlucky dip at the grab a granny night. I really get the feeling he will start to make the most of a weak era. My main problem with Wenbow is he is Trump without the class and needs a couple more seasons to get a bit of discipline. Trump is the real value but Ding could still be a nine bob note.  |
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I agree with you gentlemanjohn, FU has been the most consistant performer of late. I feel over long distances this will make him very tough to beat. I also think the snooker gods may help in along, he is due some good karma after the tipgate nonsense of having to take the interval early when he was in good touch. I would love him to do it and it woukd be a very popular victory. Other contenders? Despite going out in the grand prix after beating ROS, I think that win by ROBBO may just click him into gear...
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Can't have Robertson on my mind, certaionly not on the strength of beating Ronnie in a best of nine anyway. I couldn't back him to win a raffle until he stops obsessing about the mechanics of the game and concentrates on potting balls. Think he has allowed himself to be consumed by it.
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Jed
Spot on. It amazes me how these great players leave the strength of their natural game to play a game that they don't look comfortable in. You would think he would learn from Murphy's mistakes. They have both won the biggest prize of all doing what is right for them. Why change what not broken ? |
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Robbo won it beating one top sixteen player. A charmed passage in other words.
I wouldn't go near him, Murphy, Allen or Ding at the prices. I agree his mechanical approach has stunted his game, seems to think he can surgically plot his way around the baize when it simply cannot be done. A lot can happen on this table 12 by 6 |
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It happens with every snooker player who is of an attacking mentality...murphy, robertson and trump have all suffered. It's planted into their heads that they'll never be the full package until they learn proper matchplay strategy and so they try to adapt and when it doesn't produce instant results, they're caught in a no mans land in between and it messes with their heads. Remember 2015 when Judd started to play a few safety shots and the comms kept wittering on about "the new Judd Trump" who quickly reverted back to the old Judd Trump when the pressure cranked up a couple of notches. I have sympathy for these guys, i dont think it is quite so simple as "just do what comes natural and pot every ball in sight", but then the required balance is very difficult to find. Have my doubts Judd ever will to be honest.
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I have often thought that if you do not see the safety shot naturally you will never be taught it, it really is that easy.
The execution of the shot like everything in snooker is the most difficult thing. Hendry was the most attacking player the game has ever seen and if you didn't have a pair of idiots ruining the bbc coverage then lots of fans would be better informed. His answer to safety was simple, Don't miss. Snooker is more a test of nerve than intelligence but far too many ex players would have you believe differently but that is what keeps them in work and most can talk about it, far better than they could ever play it. Like you Gentlemen, I dont think judd ever will be the full shilling but his eleven pence is far better than 99% of the others and surely he will win a couple at the crucible if he sticks to what he is good at. Hendry managed it against better opposition than the majority of today's players. Nice to see the pockets playing tighter, it just shows that somebody is saying the right things. |
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I just feel with Robertson that he has extended cold spells then clicks into gear and is devastating. I have had it in my head that he is overdue to do this again. I agree he has been far from his best but I'm just looking for hints or signs with him...
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Agree about the pockets. If they are indeed tighter it will be very interesting to see who prevails under those conditions.
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Visually they look tighter as well and the middle bags,lets just hope the worlds have these bags..
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Catching up on the Welsh action - Robbo out 2nd round. Hmm, maybe just wishful thinking from me! Playing it safe you have to say the world number one and the current Masters Champ have to be favourites with Fu or Hawkins as a moderately dark horses.
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Think quarters upwards is time to bet,there are only a certain amount of players that relish longer distance matches
and some of those include the dodgepots ding,trump etc but they do become more backable in that scenario.I would back trump if I knew he was in a world semi final and be relatively confident will up his game,as opposed to having any sort of bet on him before that point same with ding.. |
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Definitely tighter pockets this week for whatever reason. White had a black along the top rail to win the match against Wenbo yesterday that would have gone in on any other table this season. Bumped the rail only a couple of inches from the pocket, played very slowly, and he looked bewildered when it didn't drop.
Interesting, though, that they make pocket tighter and there have been more shocks than normal. You wouldn't expect that. |
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Wouldn't be a massive surprise if Perry made it to the final. Not sure he could turn over a seasoned winner at the last hurdle though...
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Having gotten browned off with antepost betting on the racing, I turned to Hawkins. He won't be 33/1 when he plays his first shot.
Not likely to be a non runner or rerouted to a different race! Ticking along nicely this week again, a ton and 2 x 60s in a 4-0 win yesterday and 3 x 1 visit kills again today 4-1 win. The awful collapse v Journeyman Joe could have ruined him for a while, no he quickly obtains his best title the guy could now have arrived at last. Its Trump or Hawk for me, I'm ruling out Ronnie due to being over 40 (although he is a special case). |
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Gentlemen,
It's taken a few out of their comfort zone, best of 7, ultra faster cloth and tighter pockets it's been a shock for some. |
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The 33/1 was due to a technical error, Coral had already gone 16/1 two days prior. But don't worry, all bets will stand.
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I have a couple of insiders at Joe are you sure
He is still the wrong price at 25s which is apparently available in a couple of places... |
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Absolutely sure, you can check the History for Hawkins on Oddschecker. Coral been consistently short on Hawkins last few weeks, 12/1 for him at start of this tournament too.
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