First published in Racing & Football Outlook November 30-December 6, 2010
If there’s one element of the Outlook Index that continues to confuse a few people, it’s the relationship between the overall Index rating and the two Home and Away ratings.
It probably doesn’t help that we present them alongside the overall rating in our tables each week but the fact remains that the Home and Away ratings are entirely independent ratings and have no relationship to the overall rating. In other words, although they appear alongside the overall figure, the creation of the Home and Away ratings occurs separately from the overall rating.
The overall rating is compiled by looking at every single league game played by every team, irrespective of whether the game is home and away, and each new rating is carried forward to the next game. Once the software has been through all of the games for that team in the system, we end up with a final rating.
The Home rating is compiled using exactly the same algorithm as the overall rating but with the crucial difference that the software only looks at the home games played by that team and totally ignores the away games. That creates a completely separate figure which has no relationship to either the overall Index rating or the Away rating.
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