smokin

Howdy fellow Australian Forumites!

With Betfair now going beta, I can host my own BLOG!!

PROTEST, UPHELD! Is a blog that looks at just what the administration of this great sport is doing to destroy the industry that holds so much potential, that should be one of the great sports this country has, but apart from 1 week that occurs at Flemington, the state lines get so critically wrong that it is slowly killing not only itself but the very lifeblood that keeps it going, the punting dollar.

In this, my first entry into PROTEST, UPHELD! I am going to look at a peculiar thing that has popped up in the Racing NSW declaration of weights, in particular the column that states, actual weight.

I am sure we have all heard the spin regarding the Benchmark Weight system that is being implemented in Racing in NSW.

The Racing NSW policy states that Benchmark Handicapping is out to do the following:
•    increase the veracity and confidence in the handicapping model
•    apply a combination of mathematical analysis with the oversight and adjustment of experienced handicappers to produce for the industry an objective assessment that measures the true intrinsic merit of each horse’s performance
•    produce handicap races in NSW that more accurately reflect the ability of horses contesting these races, making them more competitive
•    create more opportunities for nominators to place their horses – reducing the number of restrictions on eligibility, make every race a highly competitive event, creating more interest for participants to analyse each horses chances
•    create increased betting interest to stimulate wagering turnover.

Whilst there is merit in what the Benchmark System is trying to do, it is a simple matter of fact that if you strip away each of the above points, the last one, being increased betting interest to stimulate wagering turnover comes down to field size, which is a very current issue considering that last Saturday, only 46 horses combined to stage a Saturday Metropolitan in Sydney.

The Druitt St Bunker (Racing NSW) has a fantastic spin doctor in Peter V’Landys, who quotes that "We don't have the pool of horses like Queensland do, and the furthest training centre from the city centre in Victoria would be no more than three hours away. Sydney does not have that luxury. For our city meetings we're relying on the same pool of horses from the metropolitan area and provincial areas."

Well Mr V’Landys looking at the Australian Racing Fact Book from 07-08. NSW staged 5414 races with a horse pool of 10,037 horses registered, and 54,800 starters, which included the ACT. IN QLD there was 4728 races staged, with a horse pool of 8160, with a total of 46060 starters. So much for relying on the same pool of horses…..

But Back to Benchmark Handicapping. I was perusing weights the other day for a Provincial Feature Meeting when I can across the following:

        Horse           Benchmark    Wgt  True Wgt    Trainer   
DEALER PRINCIPAL     102    58.5    58.5    Anthony Cummings
RAINBOW STYLING      102    58.5    58.5    Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes
SNOW ALERT         100    57.5    57.5    Chris Waller
SPINNEY         98    56.5    56.5    Peter Snowden
CONISTON BLUEBIRD     95    55    55    Bede Murray
STRIKE ONE (GB)     94    54.5    54.5    Chris Waller
ALEXANDER OF HALES      92    53.5    53.5    Chris Waller
GET UP JUDE         90    53    52.5    Kevin Moses
KEEPIN' THE DREAM      88    53    51.5    Patrick & Wayne Webster
DEVILS ARCADE     86    53    48.5    Gai Waterhouse
KIMILLSY         86    53    48.5    Kim Waugh   
BEIJING BOY (NZ)     85    53    50    Chris Waller   
KICK 'N CHASE         84    53    49.5    John O'Shea
KONTIKI PARK (NZ)     83    53    49    Gai Waterhouse
SUPERREACT         82    53    48.5    Allan Denham
ZAMPARA         81    53    48    Matthew Smith
STAR RIPPER         77    53    46    Bart Cummings   


TRUE WEIGHT!!!! I ask anyone who follows racing on a regular basis who punts on it, WHY ON EARTH would you publish a column of weight  that the horse should actually be carrying, if the minimum weight is established at 53kgs? If anything it shows how poorly weighted a horse is, in relation to the class of the race.

What this displays is whilst the minimum riding weight is 53kgs and the reluctance to raise the top weight mark, is a true incomprehension of what a weight spread does as a betting proposition.

It should be a given that if a trainer can book a rider that can ride the true weight, then the horse should be entitled to carry the TRUE weight as allocated, instead of the ridiculous minimum weight of 53kgs.

The recent increase of the top weight in benchmark of a particular race, from 58 to 59kgs is still a long way short from creating a genuine weight spread. I insisted at the release of the Benchmark Handicapping System that the top weight should be no less than 60kgs. Well, the looks from around the room, especially those from the Druitt St Bunker were ones of bemusement. A horse carrying 60kgs??? Not in this lifetime.

Despite the over saturation of racing that occurs in metropolitan NSW, the fact that the Benchmark System still remains a non-inclusive system of handicapping remains. Although the weighting system allows for a horse above a benchmark to be included in the race, what it does not allow is the horses that try to step up a grade, however receive a weight bonus by getting in “light” as they should is not afforded, due to the 53kg minimum, Australia wide.

A true and proper handicapping system would recognise the horse that is highly performed trying to step back in grade, but receive the penalty as it should,  but the horse trying to step up in grade and being moderately performed, is not penalised by trying to step above the grade it is currently in.

Benchmark Handicapping has its merits, however, what it needs to do is provide the opportunity for a trainer to maximise the spread in weights and give the punter the chance to wager on a race that gives a true and proper weight spread. 5.5kgs or less is pathetic, a true weight spread would be 7-9kgs, something that as the above nominations show, would be very achievable, if the opportunity existed to accept with a rider that was a natural light weight, and use the true weight as assigned by the handicapper.

Smokin………….