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Six Nations - 2025.
Six Nations - 2025.
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I'm not a rugby fan but have had a bet on France to win the 6 nations. I'm not fully sure about bonus points so may have got the following wrong, and someone will hopefully correct me.
So France are 7/4 to win the 6N but only 11/10 to beat Ireland, but shouldn't the prices be much closer given that France would become red hot favs for the 6N if they manage to beat Ireland, as they have a vastly superior PD, which I believe is the title decider if level on points? France already have an extra bonus point than Ireland, but their PD is surely worth an additional one. I believe there is a scenario where France can beat Ireland by less than 7 points and Ireland will get 1 bonus point back. If that happens, then France will need 4 tries against Scotland in the final game as Ireland play Italy and should manage that feat themselves. An Ireland V France draw would favour the Irish, but the odds for a draw are 20/1, so unlikely. As is making up the 63 Point PD. So am I right in thinking that 7/4 is a cracking price for France to win the 6N outright? |
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Hi Jack, a good argument but you know that England can still finish above France! So many permutations but France just to start have to win in Dublin and not draw so that is one, then beating Scotland isn't a given.While England can get two bonus point wins plus Ireland are still 3 points ahead.Think you can get 11/10 on France with a 2 point start which seems a better way , but that's only my thoughts. Good luck which ever you decide
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Cheers hl&c - You can tell I'm not a rugby fan, as I hadn't factored in England and put it down as a 2 horse race based on the odds!
My calculations are based entirely on France beating Ireland - any other result makes them null and void. My point is that anyone who fancies France at 11/10 to win in Dublin, may as well take the 7/4 instead for them to win the 6N outright. England look like finishing on 20 points, so France with a 94 point superior PD just need to match the 20 points with either a bonus point against Ireland or Scotland. At home to Scotland at 8pm under the lights on the final day with the other results known, it would be surprising (to me at least!) if they couldn't do it. It seems unfair that they have the advantage of knowing what they have to do, and that the final round of matches don't all start at the same time. TV money I guess. Ireland failing to get a bonus point V Wales seems to have opened the door for France (providing they win in Dublin), which could be why they didn't let up yesterday and racked up the points! |
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Completely understand your reasoning, but wouldn't you be gutted if France win in Ireland and you hadn't backed them and then get beat at home by Scotland. Again I know it's not expected but that's why you are getting the extra 3/4 point odds
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That 3/4 point seems generous to me.
France would be long odds on to beat Scotland. Maybe 2/9 or 1/5 ish I'm thinking that 7/4 to win the 6N would pay more than a single on France to beat Ireland, then putting it all on them to beat Scotland. In effect, a France win double It could happen of course, but anyone backing France to win in Ireland, wouldn't be deterred by the chances of them losing at home to Scotland. If that happened I wouldn't be gutted, just very surprised and a lesson learnt! I'd enjoy the entertainment too, and the extra edge of having a bet, so not a complete waste of money. |
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Well good luck Jack, but don't forget the bonus point and it's possible effect on the championship as well.
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Huge game about to kick off. Not sure how this is going to pan out. James Lowe out at the last minute is a huge blow for Ireland. Going to see the opening exchanges and get involved in running.
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All Ireland so far AND France TRY
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Scrap that
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Good afternoon GW !!
Yellow Ireland. |
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 He didn't think anyone would see him do that! |
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Alright esa! Decent match up so far for a 0-0
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TRY France
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Dupont off for France. Not sure whether he will return.
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 Take your time and then fall over |
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Kick
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France lead by 2 HT. Could go either way.
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Ireland Try. Lead by 5.
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What a response from France.
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Crowd lovin the ref
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No Dupont No bother
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Looks that way GW
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Some turnaround in this one
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Long way back for Ireland.
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Like to be on the 7/4 France Jack. Looking really good now.
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Well - didn't see a result like this coming
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Coup de grace fro Ireland.
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Ireland looked very average today - when ur saw their back line with no Hansen or Lowe that result in the end was no shock - Ireland looked very slow today.
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Scotland v Wales. 1.2 Scotland looks about right to me. See how it goes in the run.
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Scotland -16.5 @ an average 2.3 for me - good luck
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Poor second half from Scotland -
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Good luck Jack, well thought out , just Scotland in your way.....
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Can't be missing those
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England 1.05 at 14-7
TRY Italy |
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14-14
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HT 21-17
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21 points first 13 mins 2nd half - 42-17 England
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Cheers hl&c - That's the hard part out of the way, but I've learnt from sports betting that here's no such thing as a sure thing, but we will see.
France do look to be well positioned now though, and what cracking entertainment coming up on Saturday night! |