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There is plenty we know: Harlequins, Ulster, Clermont and Toulon are all through, the first 3 as pool winners for sure (Toulon very likely to join them, but a big Montpellier win potentially changes things). We also know that Sarries should join them (they only have to beat Edinburgh, who have been awful) and the winner of the Leicester v Toulouse game will qualify as well.
Harlequins already have a home QF, Clermont and Toulon should join them but that isn't certain yet. Assuming that is the case (and it's a confusing mess of certain teams winning, scoring bonus points and scoring a ton of tries as well) then the 4th top seed is in Ulster's hands - if they win with a bonus point then they are up to 24pts and therefore out of reach. If they don't, well, Sarries and Toulouse are back in the mix. (in fact is is possible that Leicester could get that 4th spot, but they need Sarries and Ulster both to lose which doesn't appear likely).
All of that is very nice, but what about the real issue here? Who gets the runners up spots. Two teams can get to 20pts max, one team can get 22 or 23. The latter is Montpellier who need to beat Toulon to get 7th seed (and if they win by 22pts+ and score 4 tries they get a top 4 seed. I wont be spending too much time on that eventuality). Montpellier can lose their game and get to 20pts by scoring 4 tries (and losing by less than 8) but their try count is already high and they should claim the 7th spot in that instance, ditto with a draw. (in fact the draw probably suits both French teams pretty well, hmmmm.......)
So, if Montpellier do win their game that leaves one spot (the brightest amongst you will realise that if they don't then two spots are up for grabs) and those two teams who can get to 20pts are Leinster and Munster. If two teams share the same number of points then it is decided on which one has scored the most tries - Munster currently have 9 tries, Leinster have 8 tries, which of course gives Munster a very slight advantage.
The bonus for both Irish provinces is that Montpellier play at 3:40pm on Saturday and are first to go so Leinster and Munster already know something about what they have to do. Leinster are up next at 6pm and then Munster play at 12:45pm on the Sunday. So it's clear from that that Munster have the massive upper hand there, they know what they have to do to qualify. Munster are in the far better position of playing a French team, who cant qualify, at home as Exeter are far more likely to give it everything being in front of their home crowd and being able to put out the reigning champs. So that's simple.....
Well, not quite, it's technically possible for Toulouse, who play next, to lose their game by less than 8pts and score 4 tries. They would be up to 20 (with Leicester on 20 or 21) and it goes to tries again. (Toulouse start with 14 so have a headstart on the two Irish sides)
And if Montpellier lose we could have Munster, Toulouse, Biarritz, Northampton, Leinster and Montpellier all on 19ts, or just a selection of those. There are also a billion other possibilities.........
Everyone clear? Or have I got this all wrong?
Harlequins already have a home QF, Clermont and Toulon should join them but that isn't certain yet. Assuming that is the case (and it's a confusing mess of certain teams winning, scoring bonus points and scoring a ton of tries as well) then the 4th top seed is in Ulster's hands - if they win with a bonus point then they are up to 24pts and therefore out of reach. If they don't, well, Sarries and Toulouse are back in the mix. (in fact is is possible that Leicester could get that 4th spot, but they need Sarries and Ulster both to lose which doesn't appear likely).
All of that is very nice, but what about the real issue here? Who gets the runners up spots. Two teams can get to 20pts max, one team can get 22 or 23. The latter is Montpellier who need to beat Toulon to get 7th seed (and if they win by 22pts+ and score 4 tries they get a top 4 seed. I wont be spending too much time on that eventuality). Montpellier can lose their game and get to 20pts by scoring 4 tries (and losing by less than 8) but their try count is already high and they should claim the 7th spot in that instance, ditto with a draw. (in fact the draw probably suits both French teams pretty well, hmmmm.......)
So, if Montpellier do win their game that leaves one spot (the brightest amongst you will realise that if they don't then two spots are up for grabs) and those two teams who can get to 20pts are Leinster and Munster. If two teams share the same number of points then it is decided on which one has scored the most tries - Munster currently have 9 tries, Leinster have 8 tries, which of course gives Munster a very slight advantage.
The bonus for both Irish provinces is that Montpellier play at 3:40pm on Saturday and are first to go so Leinster and Munster already know something about what they have to do. Leinster are up next at 6pm and then Munster play at 12:45pm on the Sunday. So it's clear from that that Munster have the massive upper hand there, they know what they have to do to qualify. Munster are in the far better position of playing a French team, who cant qualify, at home as Exeter are far more likely to give it everything being in front of their home crowd and being able to put out the reigning champs. So that's simple.....
Well, not quite, it's technically possible for Toulouse, who play next, to lose their game by less than 8pts and score 4 tries. They would be up to 20 (with Leicester on 20 or 21) and it goes to tries again. (Toulouse start with 14 so have a headstart on the two Irish sides)
And if Montpellier lose we could have Munster, Toulouse, Biarritz, Northampton, Leinster and Montpellier all on 19ts, or just a selection of those. There are also a billion other possibilities.........
Everyone clear? Or have I got this all wrong?
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i suppose they are just trying to waste time, but surely going for the corner wastes more?
Certainly no actual need for 3pts.
Certainly no actual need for 3pts.
The only thing that can actually hurt Toulon is Montpellier winning by 22 and scoring 4 tries. Otherwise Toulouse need to score 11 tries to knock them off top seeds.
Going to be down to the Irish shoot out then for who goes to Quins.
I've got no idea what to do with this Exeter game.Think I'm gonna lay Leinster as my starting block,they still haven't convinced me this season(Que a Exeter home drubbing)
Leinster 1.05 to lay is comedy. Had to. Exeter no mugs.
Clermont 17-0 looks a bit of a done deal after 22 mins
What has happened to the Scarlets? They started the season well.
Looks like Leinster don't like it up 'em 
- Welcome to Sandy Park!
- Welcome to Sandy Park!
Exeter have a v mobile pack & playing v well as a unit
Might have been a bit harsh on O'Brien there. Maybe for the second go at it.
If Leinster lose the coach could be in the Schmidt House
seems pretty damned unlikely you will lose then, but if any team can it will be clermont
every time i have seen steenson i've been impressed by how sweetly he strikes the ball when kicking for goal.
anyone know what sort of % he kicks to over a season?
anyone know what sort of % he kicks to over a season?
Daz (H69) are you getting the STE column? - if not please let me know & will sort
What has happened to the Scarlets? They started the season well.
Everything started going downhill once Priestland got injured
Everything started going downhill once Priestland got injured
Great half from the Cheifs. Book now £80 Leinster, £900 Cheifs/Draw.
Already had my best ever week's punting, so I think I'll put my feet up now to watch the rest of the match on the big telly and prepare myself for all the money my missus is going to spend tomorrow
GL all
Already had my best ever week's punting, so I think I'll put my feet up now to watch the rest of the match on the big telly and prepare myself for all the money my missus is going to spend tomorrow
GL all
It is sir - How are you doing? Salford will either be broke in 10 days or the Man City of Super League - 50/50 as the Doctor wants the Stadium and Peel not keen to let go.
Good mate full time now Chief Exec at Hunslet, hard work but very rewarding, hope things pull round the game needs to be back part time mate.
and the games in a mess pinching sponsors from the championship for SL and C Cup
MB - I knew I shouldn't have asked that question! It encourages silly answers.......
NL - I think you have seen Steenson's better games. Blows very hot and cold, although he has wrestled back the starting spot from Mieres do must be playing well enough.
NL - I think you have seen Steenson's better games. Blows very hot and cold, although he has wrestled back the starting spot from Mieres do must be playing well enough.
Very good from Leinster, just keeping it alive all the time and running good support angles.
Exter blowing out their arse already. Leinster to win by 16+
Well, mainly because Leinster didn't play like this all first half. Champions stuff now though, this is what they need to stay in the comp.
Just got to hope Munster don't play the same way!
Just got to hope Munster don't play the same way!
mainly 'cos they scored more points than leinster
hth
hth
RM Metro havent selected a v strong team have they though?
No, not a great team at all, although it can still cause issues. Thing is that with a reserve team they are more likely to give it everything in the hope of forcing their way into the first team - it's happened before with a weak French team in Munster.
That's the 5pts then, got to keep on scoring though. Right now 4 try win for Munster puts them through.
you won't see many more impressive 15 min spells than leinster just produced. god knows where the exeter players were hiding for that last try tho
hmmm, did seem strange that a canyon size gap suddenly appeared.
seriously i will quit this sport forever if this doesnt go over
I think we are waving goodbye to Leinster at the moment. Start backing them to win the Amlin.
very well early on but not when the games on the line!
ex need two scores, its a gimme 3, they have to take it
Thought Poite had missed that, it's impossible to support your bodyweight at that angle and I think O'Driscoll knows it. Probably should had been yellow.
Entertaining stuff from Exeter - loved that line out - Baxter obviously a lateral thinker
that is a shocking decision...keeps Leinster in the HC
Jeez, that looked harsh. This is against Leinster who have made an art form of getting in the way of defenders like that.
yes as they are saying points difference is crucial for Leinster as much as anything now
Points difference has nothing to do with it Vis, Munster have that wrapped up.
Ref looking after Leinster - Cullens just as bad
this is right - they have to win this game so 3 is good here
another try does Leinster no good anyway. Puts them on 13, Munster will be on 13 with 4 tries, so Munster will go through.
Poite has just kept Leinster in the HC with 4 extremely dubious calls
Racing are such a ridiculous team it would not surprise me at all if they make a real game of it tomorrow.
That has to be yellow, Leinster aren't even pretending any more.
So it's a BP win for Munster and them being up last has been a lovely advantage knowing exactly what they need to do.
definitely Vis. Although.......
IF Leinster beat Toulouse and Toulouse get 2 BPs then Leinster are out regardless. Can't see that happening though somehow.
IF Leinster beat Toulouse and Toulouse get 2 BPs then Leinster are out regardless. Can't see that happening though somehow.
Never say never I guess..................... but surely 1.01 not to happen at a wintry Welford Road. Ed beating Sarries is more likely
after 5 mins
FAO SMART AR$€ furrelli
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,16024_8429799,00.html
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,16024_8429799,00.html
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