Ireland vs Argentina

We are only looking at 5 or 6 points on the cap, which on the home advantage being worth about 6pts basis makes it an otherwise even match. Thats probably not a million miles off. Argentina are clearly on the up right now and are a match for most teams, while Ireland are a little bit hard to fathom, especially if you take their summer form which suggests that they are either 3pts worse than NZ, 60pts worse than NZ or somewhere in between.

I think a full-strength Ireland should pick up a victory if nobody is performing miles below standard, but I will certainly be waiting to see their line-up. There's too much of a drop off after the first XV for my liking.

Yes at this stage line looks spot on to me.  Ire are not heavy favs but about where they should be for a side that aren't all that.  I don't think Arg are all that either.

Right now France look all that, maybe even a little bit more, with all the other NH teams at differing stages of development depending on the patriotism of the person you are listening to. Argentina can be hard to place, but I would have them in that mix of Wales, England and Ireland with all 4 of those looking perfectly capable of beating each other or just beating themselves instead. All that's left is home advantage, plus the lack of cover each team has in certain positions.

ireland r a lay for definate

I agree Bhoys. Main concerns would be long long season for Argentina players and they faded a bit in second half against France. Also, they struggled in the lineout but obviously both these could be down to how good France are.

@Rugby man: we'll be far from full strength with BOD, Best, Ferris, Kearney, SOB and O'Connell all out.

RM if the team is the same as they played against SA (thats our strongest available side) do you still see it as a 5-6 point game.

I personally think that it will be a very close game, with Arg, if they reproduce their first 20mins form against france,  doing enough to sneak it.

Just trying to keep you lot quiet so I can get on

Ireland: 15 Simon Zebo, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Craig Gilroy, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Mike McCarthy, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Richardt Strauss, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Michael Bent, 19 Donncha O'Callaghan, 20 Iain Henderson, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ronan O'Gara, 23 Fergus McFadden.

Date: Saturday, November 24
Kick-off: 14:00 GMT
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Romain Poite (France), Andrew Small (England)
Television match official: Geoff Warren (England)

This is of course crucial for Ireland as if they lose they drop out of the top 8 and become 3rd seeds for the RWC draw. So lose this game and Ireland might be drawn against New Zealand AND France in next Rugby World Cup.

Whats the story with Atgentina, are they guaranteed to be in top 8 win or lose?
That may be the biggest reason why Ireland are favs in this game

They are not heavy favs though at 8/15-1/2 and without Kearney, O Driscoll, Ferris, O Brien and even Paul O Connell, methinks Ireland wont be heavily supported this weekend in the markets

IRB rankings will have almost nothing to do with the odds on this game.  Ire are at home -  that is by far the biggest factor.

The Argies have won at Twickers in recent years and of course in Cardiff two weeks ago so Dublin won't hold any fears for them.

I'll be backing an away win here

Taking 2.96 on Arg. Rate this an even game even allowing for home adv.

Ireland XV to play South Africa: Zebo (Munster); T Bowe (Ulster), K Earls (Munster), G D'Arcy (Leinster), C Gilroy (Ulster); J Sexton (Leinster), C Murray (Munster); C Healy (Leinster), R Strauss (Leinster), M Ross (Leinster), D Ryan (Munster), M McCarthy (Connacht), P O'Mahony (Munster), C Henry (Ulster), J Heaslip (Leinster, capt).

Replacements: S Cronin (Leinster), D Kilcoyne (Munster), M Bent (Leinster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), I Henderson (Ulster), E Reddan (Leinster), R O'Gara (Munster), F McFadden (Leinster).

Gilroy in.

I haven't had a bet yet or seen the Argie team.  The credentials of Argentina are readily apparent and tempting at the price, however, I feel Ireland are due a performance and somehow I don't think they will be beaten at the w/e.

Argentina: 15 Juan Martin Hernandez, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 5 Julio Farias Cabello, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Maximiliano Bustos, 2 Eusebio Guinazu, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Nahuel Lobo, 18 Francisco Gomez Kodela, 19 Tomas Vallejos, 20 Tomas Leonardi, 21 Nicolas Vergallo, 22 Gonzalo Tiesi, 23 Manuel Montero.

Dublin may not hold any fears for Argentina, but without Roncero, Ledesma or Albacete, I don't see anything to fear in the Argentina pack either. Figallo's absence weakens them further and Ireland's tight five is the one area where they remain strong, despite all their injuries. In Kilcoyne and Bent, there is finally some strength in depth to the front row and I think they could cause Argentina some problems at the set piece.

Argentina's win over Wales doesn't read too impressively after the way Samoa dispatched Wales last weekend. Then they got 10 points up against France, but totally capitulated thereafter, which suggests that they might be a little leg weary - hardly surprising given that it's their longest ever season. Ireland, on the other hand, have targetted this match for a win since before SA and will be treating this like a cup final. It's a shame Ireland haven't gone with Reddan as I think they could run the legs off Argentina here, but even still, I expect a reasonably comfortable home win.

This is likely to be low-scoring grind-especially if it stays wet.

If it stays wet? Bone dry in Dublin, hasn't rained since Thursday. Hard to see it being a points fest though.

I think the Argie win in Wales says more about the decline of Wales than the rise of Argentina. Having said that, they are a team on the up. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see them 4th in the rankings by end of next year.

Im on Ireland -5 in today's game v Argentina . Feel the Argies display last week looked tired and who could blame then with the amount of rugby they have played and travelling they have done. Yes they are much improved but feel this is must win for Ireland and fancy them to get few tries.
Looks like I'm on my own but am quietly confident

I'm on Argentina, Ireland may well win but I think Argentina should be nearer 2.2 imo

I'm in the same boat for pretty much the exact same reasoning Iso.

UP THE IRISH!

Ive gone on the Argies +6 purely on the basis there aint gonna be much in this either way imo, gl

Good luck Dunc. For obvious reasons.. Looking to trade at 1.64 as I'm balls deep...

I can't wait to see Keith Earls exploding through the 13 channel and making that shirt his own. Going to happen anytime now apparently.

Zebo has done well so far, even with a move to 15. Plenty of pace in that Irish backline, question is can they get on the front foot?

Seems strange to say it against Arg but one area I think Ireland can exploit today is the scrum. Argentina nowhere near as strong there as they were before.

What a terrible decision there. Should be an Ireland penalty!

ffs can see it bein one of those days already

I think that was an Arg pen. O'Mahony's feet were an issue, while D'Arcy went straight down. Not sure what Peyper penalised in the end, but O'Mahony's body angle was fine.

If Ireland have done any research they should know to be very careful with this ref though. Does love a penalty and I'm not sure he's aware it's a contact sport.

Some lovely lines of running from Ireland. So much relies on Sexton's timing and when he is getting things right Ireland really look good.

Ireland having no trouble creating overlaps but the decision making from Murray and Sexton was awful.

Lol Rm was thinking the exact same re ref. if this was twitter I'd retweet that...

That's a damn fine finish from Gilroy.

That's what these Ulster kids can do! Take a bow, Gilroy.

sweet

Gilroy gets the plaudits, but Sexton beautifully created the gap.

Wow who is that young fella!!!

Bloody restarts again

The classic response to scoring a great try. Give away a dumb pen.

Good lord, game over already. Argies can't tackle and Ireland are really in the mood.

Irish flair

How do you like them onions??? All green. Thanks for coming etc etc etc. rib eye steak for tea bla bla bla

Getting worse and worse for Pumas if Sanchez has gone. Looks a really good player at 10.

Straussy!  He ALWAYS scores!

Give that man a Lions Test shirt.

. It's just like watching the all blacks it's just like watching the all blacks!!!!

Cant believe how bad the Argies are here, oh well - onto the next game

The Ireland players had been hinting at it in the press conferences all week - this is the one game they've been targetting. Just wish I'd been a bit ballsier as I really fancied them to put in a performance today.

How was that last try awarded??? No downward pressure whatever.

Where has this downward pressure concept originated from? It doesn't exist.

you don't need downward pressure to score a try

There was downward pressure anyway. You can ground the ball with any part of your torso or upper limbs.

brilliant from ireland

so slick from Sexton.  Murray also going well.

It's just like watching the all blacks!!!! This so far is quality from Ireland. If they could step up on restarts it would be near perfect

Joined:
29 May 03
| Topic/replies: 17,209 | Blogger: RugbyMan's blog
Where has this downward pressure concept originated from? It doesn't exist.

Just checked it out.
The idea exists in RL rules so it's not really a surprise that it gets used in RU. How can a ball be grounded without downward pressure???

earls passing still a big issue

what a half from sexton

You not back them Dunc??? Been pounding the pavements since early this morning myself. Great display so far. Hoping for more if the sane second dig

If the ball can't be grounded without downward pressure then all it has to do is brush the surface of the in-goal area, which is certainly what Strauss did.


22.1 GROUNDING THE BALL

There are two ways a player can ground the ball:

(a) Player touches the ground with the ball. A player grounds the ball by holding the ball and touching the ground with it, in in-goal. ‘Holding’ means holding in the hand or hands, or in the arm or arms. No downward pressure is required.         

(b) Player presses down on the ball. A player grounds the ball when it is on the ground in the in-goal and the player presses down on it with a hand or hands, arm or arms, or the front of the player’s body from waist to neck inclusive

Can't remember our backline looking so good. Where did this come from?

Agreed leyrob hope it's a sign if things to come

The talent is always there, the physicality isn't. When Ireland aren't put under enough physical pressure they look very good.

Ferris and SOB will add some physicality.  This second row combo is very lively and aggressive if not hugely powerful.

this ref likes plenty of advantage

Jaysus we are mullering them in the scrum.

Ireland tight five owning Argentina here.

Argies have gone soft since they entered The Championship imo.

Argie scrum isn't all that any more, Ozy, and Healy is far and away the best loosehead in the world.

Great kick by Sexton, lovely chase by Bowe.  Try time!

Any rugby being played over at Twickers?

Yeah, Healy immense.

He played hooker in SCT so that he could literally smash through the middle of the opposition scrum and it allowed him to be more free around the park. Human wrecking ball!

Lets hope this performance is kept in perspective. But no doubt at least one of the papers will mention a grand slam in the morning!!!

Agreed.  Its actually a bit strange how poor Argies are.  Still a confidence booster and an indication of the style we should be trying to play.

As the saying goes, you can only beat what's put in front of you. Best performance I've seen from POM to date.

It's just a shame that the players need to feel this kind of pressure to be motivated to give their best. We all know that the team is capable of this, but the consistency is badly lacking under DK. It's a feast or a famine with him.

mcarthy doesn't half go in hard

sh it pass again earls

First and last time i start the match thread



leroyb
19 Nov 12 11:44
Joined:
29 Aug 08
| Topic/replies: 17,224 | Blogger: leroyb's blog
How are Ireland heavy favourites here? That makes no sense.

This has been one of Ireland's best performances under kidney, and with plenty of quality missing as well, it' give him the opportunity to use most of the squad in the 6 nations, and keep the team as fresh as possible.

Game on in Italy!

Fancied Italy a bit, but couldn't bring myself to back them. The Aussie pack is in for a torrid last 20 here!

Next time there is a war in the Malvinas we should send the Irish pack

McCarthy, Henry, Zebo and Gilroy. None of them will come close to starting the 6N if Ireland have a fully fit squad.

i would play mccarthy over poc unless poc returns to top form.  gilroy starts on merit also now.

I would start gilroy and zebo on the wings, when kearney comes back, and move bowe into midfield.

I'd play McCarthy and Gilroy too, but there's no chance that DK drops any of Earls, BOD, Bowe or Kearney.

Australia absolutely blessed to still be leading in Italy.

i reckon kidney will go with gilroy ahead of earls

Did you see the chip through earlier Dunc? Parisse looked set to pick it up for a walk in and it bounced right back past him. Aussies living on pure fortune.

I'd be amazed if he does. Earls has always been his favourite. Too many of the old guard are there on reputation only now. Debatable if BOD merits a starting place as well.

Yes, it bounced behind Parisse when he was in under the sticks and of course an Aus player is first to pounce on the loose ball. Typical.

Italy miss a penalty from almost straight in front to tie it up with a minute to go

I suppose that was somewhat inevitable.

I'd laid Aus from 1.2 out to 1.5

They went no bigger than 2.0 before it was struck. They knew.