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How are Ireland heavy favourites here? That makes no sense.
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We are only looking at 5 or 6 points on the cap, which on the home advantage being worth about 6pts basis makes it an otherwise even match. Thats probably not a million miles off. Argentina are clearly on the up right now and are a match for most teams, while Ireland are a little bit hard to fathom, especially if you take their summer form which suggests that they are either 3pts worse than NZ, 60pts worse than NZ or somewhere in between.
I think a full-strength Ireland should pick up a victory if nobody is performing miles below standard, but I will certainly be waiting to see their line-up. There's too much of a drop off after the first XV for my liking. |
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Yes at this stage line looks spot on to me. Ire are not heavy favs but about where they should be for a side that aren't all that. I don't think Arg are all that either.
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Right now France look all that, maybe even a little bit more, with all the other NH teams at differing stages of development depending on the patriotism of the person you are listening to. Argentina can be hard to place, but I would have them in that mix of Wales, England and Ireland with all 4 of those looking perfectly capable of beating each other or just beating themselves instead. All that's left is home advantage, plus the lack of cover each team has in certain positions.
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ireland r a lay for definate
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I agree Bhoys. Main concerns would be long long season for Argentina players and they faded a bit in second half against France. Also, they struggled in the lineout but obviously both these could be down to how good France are.
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@Rugby man: we'll be far from full strength with BOD, Best, Ferris, Kearney, SOB and O'Connell all out.
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RM if the team is the same as they played against SA (thats our strongest available side) do you still see it as a 5-6 point game.
I personally think that it will be a very close game, with Arg, if they reproduce their first 20mins form against france, doing enough to sneak it. |
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Just trying to keep you lot quiet so I can get on
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Ireland: 15 Simon Zebo, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Craig Gilroy, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Mike McCarthy, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Richardt Strauss, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Michael Bent, 19 Donncha O'Callaghan, 20 Iain Henderson, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ronan O'Gara, 23 Fergus McFadden. Date: Saturday, November 24 Kick-off: 14:00 GMT Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa) Assistant referees: Romain Poite (France), Andrew Small (England) Television match official: Geoff Warren (England) |
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This is of course crucial for Ireland as if they lose they drop out of the top 8 and become 3rd seeds for the RWC draw. So lose this game and Ireland might be drawn against New Zealand AND France in next Rugby World Cup.
Whats the story with Atgentina, are they guaranteed to be in top 8 win or lose? That may be the biggest reason why Ireland are favs in this game They are not heavy favs though at 8/15-1/2 and without Kearney, O Driscoll, Ferris, O Brien and even Paul O Connell, methinks Ireland wont be heavily supported this weekend in the markets |
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IRB rankings will have almost nothing to do with the odds on this game. Ire are at home - that is by far the biggest factor.
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The Argies have won at Twickers in recent years and of course in Cardiff two weeks ago so Dublin won't hold any fears for them.
I'll be backing an away win here |
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Taking 2.96 on Arg. Rate this an even game even allowing for home adv.
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Ireland XV to play South Africa: Zebo (Munster); T Bowe (Ulster), K Earls (Munster), G D'Arcy (Leinster), C Gilroy (Ulster); J Sexton (Leinster), C Murray (Munster); C Healy (Leinster), R Strauss (Leinster), M Ross (Leinster), D Ryan (Munster), M McCarthy (Connacht), P O'Mahony (Munster), C Henry (Ulster), J Heaslip (Leinster, capt).
Replacements: S Cronin (Leinster), D Kilcoyne (Munster), M Bent (Leinster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), I Henderson (Ulster), E Reddan (Leinster), R O'Gara (Munster), F McFadden (Leinster). Gilroy in. I haven't had a bet yet or seen the Argie team. The credentials of Argentina are readily apparent and tempting at the price, however, I feel Ireland are due a performance and somehow I don't think they will be beaten at the w/e. |
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Argentina: 15 Juan Martin Hernandez, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 5 Julio Farias Cabello, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Maximiliano Bustos, 2 Eusebio Guinazu, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Nahuel Lobo, 18 Francisco Gomez Kodela, 19 Tomas Vallejos, 20 Tomas Leonardi, 21 Nicolas Vergallo, 22 Gonzalo Tiesi, 23 Manuel Montero. |
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Dublin may not hold any fears for Argentina, but without Roncero, Ledesma or Albacete, I don't see anything to fear in the Argentina pack either. Figallo's absence weakens them further and Ireland's tight five is the one area where they remain strong, despite all their injuries. In Kilcoyne and Bent, there is finally some strength in depth to the front row and I think they could cause Argentina some problems at the set piece.
Argentina's win over Wales doesn't read too impressively after the way Samoa dispatched Wales last weekend. Then they got 10 points up against France, but totally capitulated thereafter, which suggests that they might be a little leg weary - hardly surprising given that it's their longest ever season. Ireland, on the other hand, have targetted this match for a win since before SA and will be treating this like a cup final. It's a shame Ireland haven't gone with Reddan as I think they could run the legs off Argentina here, but even still, I expect a reasonably comfortable home win. |
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This is likely to be low-scoring grind-especially if it stays wet.
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If it stays wet? Bone dry in Dublin, hasn't rained since Thursday. Hard to see it being a points fest though.
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I think the Argie win in Wales says more about the decline of Wales than the rise of Argentina. Having said that, they are a team on the up. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see them 4th in the rankings by end of next year.
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Im on Ireland -5 in today's game v Argentina . Feel the Argies display last week looked tired and who could blame then with the amount of rugby they have played and travelling they have done. Yes they are much improved but feel this is must win for Ireland and fancy them to get few tries.
Looks like I'm on my own but am quietly confident |
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I'm on Argentina, Ireland may well win but I think Argentina should be nearer 2.2 imo
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I'm in the same boat for pretty much the exact same reasoning Iso.
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UP THE IRISH!
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Ive gone on the Argies +6 purely on the basis there aint gonna be much in this either way imo, gl
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Good luck Dunc. For obvious reasons.. Looking to trade at 1.64 as I'm balls deep...
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I can't wait to see Keith Earls exploding through the 13 channel and making that shirt his own. Going to happen anytime now apparently.
Zebo has done well so far, even with a move to 15. Plenty of pace in that Irish backline, question is can they get on the front foot? |
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Seems strange to say it against Arg but one area I think Ireland can exploit today is the scrum. Argentina nowhere near as strong there as they were before.
What a terrible decision there. Should be an Ireland penalty! |
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ffs can see it bein one of those days already
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I think that was an Arg pen. O'Mahony's feet were an issue, while D'Arcy went straight down. Not sure what Peyper penalised in the end, but O'Mahony's body angle was fine.
If Ireland have done any research they should know to be very careful with this ref though. Does love a penalty and I'm not sure he's aware it's a contact sport. |
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Some lovely lines of running from Ireland. So much relies on Sexton's timing and when he is getting things right Ireland really look good.
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Ireland having no trouble creating overlaps but the decision making from Murray and Sexton was awful.
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Lol Rm was thinking the exact same re ref. if this was twitter I'd retweet that...
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That's a damn fine finish from Gilroy.
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That's what these Ulster kids can do! Take a bow, Gilroy.
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sweet
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Gilroy gets the plaudits, but Sexton beautifully created the gap.
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Wow who is that young fella!!!
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Bloody restarts again
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The classic response to scoring a great try. Give away a dumb pen.
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