Richard_Moore

The nature of handicap hurdles in Ireland is such that you never really know how good they actually were until many months down the line (or indeed, when it is too late to profit from such knowledge!). Every now and again however, a race comes along where it is so obvious that the form is above average that it almost slaps you in the face to take notice. On the November 28th 2015, the 2.15 handicap hurdle in Fairyhouse won by Alan Fleming’s Blue Hell was one such race. At the time it seemed a classic ‘could be anything’ race, it contained a handful of unexposed types and plenty of horses that had been talked up by their respective trainers.



I won’t pretend to have been drawn to the race by anything other than the visual impression created by the winner, and he will be discussed in detail, but closer analysis revealed that he was far from the only horse to follow from the race. The first promising thing about the form is that all the ‘right horses’ came to the fore at the finish. Indeed the first five home were the very unexposed likely improvers that anyone would have identified prior to the race. Chasing home the winner that day was Gordon Elliott’s Diamond King, running off a mark of 132 that day (he has since come out and trounced useful yardstick Jennies Jewel, and is now rated 142). He is now a favourite for the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham festival, which shows the regard he is held in. Two lengths back in third was a young improving horse of J.P. McManus’ called After Rain, who at the time of writing is Barry Geraghty’s selected mount in the big race in Leopardstown on Sunday. A strong showing from the current second favourite in that race (his first start since Fairyhouse) would really copper-fasten the train of thought as to the value of the form.



In fourth place that day was a mare called Keppol’s Queen, who franked the form by impressively taking a Grade 3 mare’s hurdle at Leopardstown’s Christmas festival on her next start. She ran off a mark of only 124 in Blue Hell’s race, but has since been raised (possibly somewhat harshly) to a new rating of 141. Fifth place went to Henry Higgins, a horse who has admittedly been disappointing, but it would not surprise me if a first time tongue strap brought about a big improvement in him as he has always been highly regarded (he ran placed a graded race as a novice). He also is engaged in the big race in Leopardstown on Sunday, having had a break since Fairyhouse. These five horses pulled over 9 lengths clear of what is probably the most solid yardstick in training, Pat Fahy’s mare Good as Gold. She ran her usual race to come 6th (the only time she had finished out of the first four on her previous 10 starts) off a mark of 115, she went and won her next start, and is now rated 119.



Fully 19 lengths ahead of Good as Gold that day was the very impressive winner Blue Hell. Races rarely work out as well as this one has, and if anything, it makes me a little wary of getting too confident in Blue Hell going forward, but there was just too much to like about this horse that day. His jumping was decent overall, and was especially slick when it needed to be over the last couple of obstacles. He absolutely tanked his way through the race, nothing was travelling even remotely as well from fully three furlongs out, and when asked to pick up going down to the last he quickened nicely in tough enough ground conditions to win impressively. My own impression from watching replays was that Adrian Heskin only resorted to his whip for concentration reasons after the last, he took up the running travelling so strongly I thought he had a good look at the last, pricking his ears and lifting his head. Once he got the reminder from the jockey, he put his head down and battled in good style. All in all it was a performance that left all onlookers only estimating how good he could be.



The horses overall profile would fill you with optimism for further improvement also. Formerly trained by Tony Mullins, he had shown promise in a handful of starts last season, travelling strongly into contention before weakening each time. A change of trainer to the in-form Alan Fleming combined with the first application of a tongue-strap appear to have worked the oracle with the horse. His action would give me no worries about this horse handling faster going conditions, in fact he may even improve for it. The handicapper has raised Blue Hell 11 pounds, to what is still a very lenient looking 135. The connections quotes in the last few weeks have been intriguing, the plan is to apparently miss big targets (such as the Betfair hurdle and the coral.ie hurdle) to preserve the mark for the County hurdle at Cheltenham. He has run very well fresh on multiple occasions in the past so that would hold no fears, and I would think he should still have a nice racing weight in that race even after the British handicapper has had his say.



The only slight concern I would have is his very unorthodox pedigree. His sire, Russian Blue, was a sprinter who has had very few jumps runners, and most of his siblings would be flat types. Blue Hell has been quite free-going in the past, and to stay up the hill in Cheltenham he would have to settle better than he has been. It may well be that Blue Hell is going to turn out to be a better horse on tracks that put more of an emphasis on speed, but at his current general odds of 16/1 for the County hurdle I would be willing to take that chance. Obviously from a betting point of view, you would probably be best off waiting until bookmakers go non runner-no bet, as getting a plot horse like this to the racecourse on the day is a big achievement in itself. In all honesty, I would probably back this horse on the day of the race at around half his current odds and be happy enough that I was getting value, such is his profile. Regardless, I would be quite hopeful that Blue Hell, Diamond King and After Rain should all have big futures ahead of them.