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Haydock - 28/5/11

27 May 11 18:13
An interesting card starts with a 2 mile handicap. Likely ground conditions set to remain fast, with little rain in the overnight / morning forecast, the favourite Zuider Zee is very likely to be withdrawn.

Although a 10 year old, Colloquial 2.5 points e/w @ 11/1 (general) has only raced 26 times and is having his 4th attempt in this race, having finished 2nd twice with a victory sandwiched between them, with identical types of preparation (1 race) as tomorrow. If anything his best career form was last summer, including giving a beating and weight to subsequent Ces winner Aaim To Prosper in the Brown Jack. There was enough at Salisbury earlier this month to make him a confident each way selection, with the seemingly-progressive Ashbrittle and Activate on seasonal debuts.

The Listed Sandy Lane Stakes looks a substandard renewal, with plenty of disappointing horses in the field. Show Rainbow 3 points win @ 3/1 (H1lls) showed decent form over C&D last week, which should be enough from her draw on the stand side rail.

Unlike the previous race, The Listed Pinnacle Stakes is a cracker, showcasing 2 improvers with only 1 unlucky nose defeat between them taking on established group performers such as Crystal Capella (great record fresh) and Oaks 2nd Meeznah. Preference is for Ferdoos 2.5 points win @ 4/1 (S.J) who would be unbeaten but for hanging badly when still green at Ascot last Autumn. Varian's horses are generally spot on for their reappearance and she is taken to get the better of Vita Nova.

Regal Parade must be a doubtful runner in the Group 3 race that follows, but Beacon Lodge  2.5 points @ 5/1 (S.J) would be the selection anyway. In 3 tries over C&D only the smart Main Aim has got the better of him.
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Reading v Swansea 30/5/11

27 May 11 17:21
I make Reading slight favourites, despite the Swans winning both regular season games 1-0. However the latter of those games was on New Years Day and since then, Reading have undoubtedly been the form side. They also had the more comfortable semi final victory; the team with the biggest winning margin in the semis has won the final 3 times more often than their opponents in the last decade.

Both teams have been defensively tight in away matches recently, again treating this as an 'away' match for both. They will be looking to extend clean sheet streaks of 3 (Swansea) and 4 matches (Reading).

In the previous 7 finals, only last season's saw both teams scoring and the last 4 finals were won by 1 goal only.

Taking this into consideration, my suggestions are:- Reading to win (90 minutes) 2.5 points @ 9/5 (general) / Reading to win by 1 goal (h'cap tie) 2.5 points @ 18/5 (T0te) / Only 1 team to score 3 points @ 13/10 (C0ral)
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Huddersfield are on a 27 match unbeaten run and are rightly slight favourites.

Since 1997, 12 of the 14 League 1 play off finals have been won by 1 goal or gone to extra time and given that 7 of Huddersfield's last 10 victories and Peterboro's last 5 defeats have been by 1 goal, I like Huddersfield to win by 1 goal (h'cap tie) 2 points @ 7/2 (S.J).

The teams have met 3 times this season, drawing their JPT tie and exchanging high-scoring victories (4-2 & 3-2) in the league. In Huddersfield's last 3 and 'Boro's last 4 'away' games, both teams scored, while the former have scored in each of their 15 away matches since Christmas and the latter in the last 6 and 16 of the last 17. Unlike the Championship final, goals have often flowed in this game and Both Teams to Score 6 points @ 8/13 (C0ral), though skinny seems fair.

Huddersfield have led at half time in over 50% of their league matches this season, as opposed to Peterboro (less than 33%), so I'll take Huddersfield to lead at half time 2 points @ 2/1 (general), while 'Boro have scored almost twice as many 2nd half goals than Town. Peterboro to win the 2nd half 2 points @ 21/10 (C0ral, T0te) seems sensible.

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Plenty of evidence pointing to a tight, low scoring affair at Old Trafford. The 2 meetings this season in the regular season ended 0-0 and 2-0 for Torquay and there is every chance at least one of the teams not scoring in 90 minutes on Saturday, making the bet Both Teams To Score - No 4 points@ Evens (P.P)

In all 4 play off semis this would have copped as well as 3 of Stevenage's last 4 and 5 of Torquay's last 7 games previously. Recently when either team wins it is with a clean sheet, both teams last 3 wins were.
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Royal Hunt Cup

25 May 11 17:49
One of my favourite ante post races and worth looking at now the weights have been released. Some strong trends in this race; since 1986 15 x 4yos, 8 x 5yos and 2 x 6yos have won, no others outside this age range. No horse carrying over 9st 6lbs has succeeded and in the 5 runnings since the track was re-configured, form on a polytrack surface has been a pre-requisite, the only race not going to a previous AW winner was last year when Great Leighs and Wolves winner Riggins was an unlucky 2nd.

While Green Destiny has been all the range since his impressive-looking Newmarket win on Guineas day, there are 2 similarly lightly raced 4 year olds with shrewd outfits that are worth more than a second look.

Noseda's Point North is too well-handicapped and won't get in the race off his 87 mark without a penalty (last year 91 was the rating of the last horse to make the cut).He is entered twice this weekend over 10 furlongs, including in the Zetland Gold Cup and although an impressive Kempton winner over 1 mile last time out, beating Tartan Trip who has franked the form last week, if successful he may be campaigned over the longer distance, given his dam was a half sister to Pilsudski. He is passed over for these reasons.

The other 4yo that interests me is the Swinburn horse Julienas, who from a poor draw and position in a slowly run race on his seasonal opener at Sandown ran on up the hill to just fail in a blanket finish. Normally prominently ridden and proven at the trip, this race looks the plan and a good performance in the Whitsun Cup tomorrow evening at Sandown will see his odds tumble from his current 20/1 - 1.5 points win H1lls

My other selection ticks the 'course specialist' box, despite being winless since 2008 (at Kempton). Noble Citizen's big race course record (on good or faster ground) reads..
'10 Victoria Cup ....4th  /  '10 Royal Hunt Cup...6th  /  '10 International....2nd  /  '11 Victoria Cup.....9th ....first home on the 'wrong' side.

In his 7f races he is always staying on and at 40/1 - 1 point e/w H1lls, off a mark of 91 having remarkably been dropped 1lb after the Victoria Cup, he rates a must for a place at least. If he doesn't make the cut, the 7f Buckingham Palace stakes will surely be a worthwhile consolation.
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Barca v Man U - CL Final

25 May 11 14:44
Barca's 90 minute price (around 2.06) looks a little skinny to me,given the 'home' advantage Man U will have, though I do believe they will win.

The days of successfully backing the 1-0 scoreline blindly throughout the mid 70s-mid 90s have been replaced by another goals related trend. In each final from and including the 1999 one, the number of 90 minute goals has been...3-3-2-3-0-3-6-3-3-2-2-2 - hence 10 out of 12 have had 2 or 3 goals, including their 2009 meeting. In this season's competition 50% of their matches conformed to this trend, making the 2 or 3 goals 4 points win @ 11/10 (V.C) a fair bet.

Over the same period, First goal times were...6-39-2-8-no goal-39-2-37-45-26-10-35. H1lls are offering 4/1 a goal in the first 10 minutes but a better bet could be their Match goal 31-45th minute 2 points win @ 2/1 (H1lls) . This has copped in 7 of the last 9 finals and in 4 of the last 7 it has been the first goal.

There has only been 1 goalless first half in the past 12 finals and in the other 11 there was exactly 1 goal in 8 of them and in 2 of the remaining 3 there were 3 goals. We'll take the bets First Half - 1 goal 2 points @ 8/5 (V.C) and First Half - Odd 2 points @ 6/5 with this in mind.

One more stat, in the last 20 finals, the number of goals has been split 50/50 odd/even. In 9 of the 10 where this was Even, there were the same number of goals in each half. Half with most goals- Tie 2 points @ 12/5 (BlSq) is worth a bet given this.
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A 9 runner group 3 race that revolves around the re-appearance of Derby and Arc winner Workforce. While I have no doubt his trainer will improve him again as a 4 year old and is clearly the best horse in the race on previous form, the combination of a 7lb penalty and the prospect of richer pickings in the months ahead make him a massive lay in my eyes, especially at the odds on quotes currently available. The last 18 horses dropping back in distance have all failed to win this race, though admittedly there were no Arc winners who tried, while the last 5 winners had all already raced that season.

Ladbroke5 have taken a differing view to their competitors, going initially 5/4 and I suspect his SP will be nearer that price come the off, as there are 2 lightly raced horses in particular that can improve for their much-needed opening races of the season and are currently very backable prices, ironically also with the Mag1c Sign.

Afsare 2 pts win @ 12/1 Ladbroke5 trounced Wigmore Hall twice last summer, including at Royal Ascot when he showed his improving maturity and guts to win the Hampton Court. He wasn't seen after that until the Gordon Richards last month, when given an easy time. I can't believe his trainer won't win at least 1 group race this season with him and as the track is favoured to horses ridden close to the pace, I can see him tracking the pace horses (Poet and Distant Memories, both of whom would prefer softer ground) and getting first run on his other rivals.

Elusive Pimpernel 2 pts win @ 8/1 Ladbroke5 was similarly coming off a long absence on his seasonal reappearance in the Earl of Sefton (after his 3rd in last years Guineas) and will improve for the step up in trip presented now. Allied to this his stable was out of form then but is flying now.

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Stevenege arrive with a 2-0 lead from the first leg, but there are several reasons why Red Card To Be Shown 2 points @ 19/5 (VC) is a wise investment.

During the season proper, Stevenege's renowned tough guy image is reflected in 7 straight red cards, easily the most in the league. Joint 2nd with 4 straight reds were Stanley, so plenty of previous for both sides.

This will be a clash of culture, Accrington will try to play some 'football' despite the worst pitch in the league and the visitors will do whats necessary to stop this. There is a bit of 'durings' and 'afters' from last weekend too and with 2 feisty managers, there may not be too many calming words off the bench...
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Mens

After the draw was announced today, the task was firstly to find likely semi finalists from the Federer / Murray quarters, as both are well worth taking on at present. Federer could have Ferrer or Monfils in a quarter, but Murray's quarter looks less daunting with the unpredictable Almagro and Melzer waiting. Yet sometimes the most obvious selections are staring you in the face and as they are by some distance the top 2 players at present, and have met in the last 2 1000 Masters clay court finals, the Nadal v Djokovic to play in the final 5 points @ 1.09/1 (Extra) is both predicable and logical. Infact at anything Evens or above, it is value in my eyes.

Womens

Rarely has there been a more wide open Grand Slam event. The key to this for me was Kim Clijsters who, unless we have all been misled, is surely in no shape to complete a 2 week, 7 round slam. The selection interested me before the draw, but as she was matched in the Belgian's quarter that made Rome Masters winner Maria Sharapova the confident selection 2 points @ 15/2 (Extra).

She has been hitting the ball supremely from the baseline and, while clay will never be her preferred surface having only reached the semis once, she will almost certainly never have a better chance given her health and current form to complete her set of Grand Slams
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Haydock 4.00 - 19/5/11

18 May 11 19:28
A competitive 16 runner handicap over 1 mile, with several horses who will make this a true test. Although the joint oldest in the race, Charlie Cool is the selection 2.5 points e/w @ 10/1 (PP).

Although his best placing out of 4 runs this season was last Sunday's fast finishing 4th in a valuable Ripon race (a course he runs well at), it showed that he looks to have lost none of his spark which has seen him in the winners circle in each of his 5 previous seasons racing.

He's back on a mark of 88, his last winning mark and also off which he ran a good 2nd at Redcar last October. More to the point, analysis of his season stats would indicate he is primed to go 'close', especially as Robert Winston is on board again (on board all 3 wins last season and for the first time last Sunday).

As he's got older it tends to take him more runs to get into the winners circle, starting as a 3 year old after 1 race, then 1 - 1 - 4 - 4.

His 3 wins last season came within 5 weeks from mid May to maid June and with likely good ground and the stable still in good form, granted luck in running, he shouldn't be far away.
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