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Probettingtowin

Derby Day

04 Jun 11 07:52
4 bets today, though for at least 2 of them the price went yesterday evening and will only be available for a short time...


Its easy to forget Awzaan went off 3rd fav for last years Guineas and though he hasn't won in an abbreviated career since his 2 year old days, his reappearance at York (jockey found troubled passage in a 5 runner race!)showed signs of a fruitful 4 year old campaign. Very often horses who were successful as juveniles 'miss' their 3 year old campaign, look at St Nicholas Abbey, and I suspect Awzaan will be the same. Fast ground and a downhill course should ensure he sees out this extended mile and he rates a good each way bet, provided all 8 run 1.5 each way @ 8/1 (gen) in the 2.40 Epsom.

Coin of the Realm's Epsom record reads 4-1-1-4, this corresponding race seeing a win and a 4th of these. He has a similar profile to yesterday's winner Resurge and will be trained to the second for this race by his shrewd connections. Although a 6yo, he's only raced 17 times so a mark of 91 is not insurmountable. Bourne rates a real danger but provided you're early, Coin of the Realm 2 points e/w @ 15/2 (H1lls) 4.50 Epsom is the bet.

There's no doubt Fireback has been disappointing since winning a heritage handicap at Newmarket last summer but he looks all about speed and this downhill 6f looks ideal for him. Reasonably drawn just outside pace horses Swiss Cross and Cape Vale, this looks a chance to beat mainly exposed horses.So Fireback 1 point e/w @ 10/1 (gen) 5.25 Epsom is the bet, with a watch on Olynard, whose jockey surpassed himself at the course yesterday.

At Musselburgh, if you're really quick, Racy 2 points e/w @ 13/2 (H1lls)3.40 Muss is a confident selection. The ex-Michael Stoute 4 year old bolted on the way to the start on his reappearance for the in-form Kevin Ryan, missed the break (normally a good trapper) and still finished a 3/4 length 3rd at York. I suspect he'll be able to use his early speed to counteract a moderate draw and, like Fireback, meets largely exposed sprinters.
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