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Escapee
17 May 26 14:11
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 69,264 | Blogger: Escapee's blog
Restore are pumping money into this, costing them about £1-2,000 a day.

You can back Labour & Reform for a guaranteed 3.5% profit... Free Money


UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
6 Runners            £201,455 Matched   



              100.9%   99.3%             
Labour    1.62 1.63 1.64   1.66   1.67   1.68   £123,284
        £117 £123 £124     £845 £20 £100  
Reform    2.74 2.76 2.78   2.82   2.84   2.88   £56,046
        £88 £198 £84     £47 £61 £22  
Restore Britain    26 28 29   30   32   34   £21,280
        £268 £665 £23     £17 £154 £200  
Green    270 300 320   440   450   470   £708
        £5 £3 £4     £2 £1 £10  
Conservative    680 810 1000   -   -   -   £68
        £1 £1 £57              
Liberal Democrats    800 810 1000   -   -   -   £70
        £1 £1 £57              
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Report Cider June 11, 2026 4:20 PM BST
cb touched on rtv, and I see a corollary here. Before app voting, in the old days there was plenty of £££ to be made out of which competitor would show up well in polling. And not so well when the act of voting took some effort (eg using a telephone). Maybe some people are responding to restore but getting them to register to vote (postal vote) or actually physically on the day is another matter entirely. Maybe rupert is laying on transport for them lol, but I remain pretty sceptical it will be reflected in actual votes.
Report Escapee June 11, 2026 4:26 PM BST

Cider: As I stated before, anyone deliberately voting restore likely wouldn't have voted at all, otherwise.


Just to clarify.

Are you saying there is 10-15% of the turnout which Reform could have picked up but didn't bother to try or weren't using the right tools and so Restore just came along and picked them up?


You're kinda saying that Reform are either incompetent or aren't fighting this by-election whole heartedly.


Which do you think it is?

Report Cider June 11, 2026 4:31 PM BST
It's pretty clear.

Turnout was dreadful at the last general election, many people weren't motivated to vote for anyone at all, and 'stayed at home'.

I think restore has a niche appeal, and if they obtain a tangible result (say 10%+) it won't be from people that would have voted labour, tory or reform if restore didn't exist. It would have been people who wouldn't have taken part. That is my instinct.
Report Cider June 11, 2026 4:35 PM BST
I've explained it at length before to be fair. There are people that want reform to be ruthless. But they aren't pragmatic, and don't understand politics. Reform needs to win a ge, and ideally win an om when doing so. To do that they need to win over moderates.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 11, 2026 4:58 PM BST
I think a huge portion of Restore voters will have previously and would have now voted Reform personally. These people are politically engaged. They're on social media and GBeebies 24/7 listening to how the politicians have failed on immigration and something needs to be done. Previously Nige was the guy to get those things done, but Rupert's come along with a much harsher tone and these guys are more swayed by that.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 11, 2026 4:59 PM BST

Jun 11, 2026 -- 4:35PM, Cider wrote:


I've explained it at length before to be fair. There are people that want reform to be ruthless. But they aren't pragmatic, and don't understand politics. Reform needs to win a ge, and ideally win an om when doing so. To do that they need to win over moderates.


Indeed. And that's the bind they're in. Do they go more centrist and try to peel off tories and maybe an odd labour vote or two, or does he worry about the right flank and try to win back the nutjobs? You can't really do both.

Report Cider June 11, 2026 5:07 PM BST
They are on the right path in my view. They ain't winning over the ultra wet tories or lib dum types. That pool has been exhausted. The next task was to peel off sensible labour voters ie working class. They obviously aren't going to get people who vote labour due to being statists, nhs staff and the like.

Sure, they would be winning this seat easily if it wasn't for the very unusual dynamic of voting for the labour candidate to get rid of the failing labour prime minister. That's not in reform's control though.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 11, 2026 5:13 PM BST
Yeah, this seat isn't really indicative. Still though, far more Reform boards out than Labour and I've had a small bet on them. But the combination of Burnham's popularity and the chance to make a change is probably too good to refuse. The interesting story will be whether he can hold it at the next GE if Labour struggle under him.
Report Cider June 11, 2026 5:20 PM BST
This market is a percentage bet for me. If forced to choose I would pick Labour but way closer than the market has it. The 'conversation' has cleverly been shifted away from the actual arrogance of using voters in this seat to leapfrog into #10. and have a PM that wasn't even part of a general election. Maybe the talking heads aren't chatting about it, but in my experience northerners are not daft, will know that they are being used, and maybe that factor is significantly underplayed.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 11, 2026 5:35 PM BST
I think northerners are not much different to other folk. They're not hobbits. And they understand the real world. They know what's happening and they're overturning an almost cert-Reform seat because they're happy to be party to it.
Report yak hunt June 11, 2026 5:52 PM BST
Looking towards a future General Election, with Restore now splitting the vote on the right with Reform and the tories, where exactly are Reform going to pick up seats? Not in Scotland as was shown in the recent Holyrood election where, even without Restore present, they were unable to win a single constituency seat. In Wales they were strong but the presence of Restore will make things much more difficult against a resurgent Plaid Cymru. In the South and South West, the LibDems must be rubbing their hands with glee as they get a free run against a split opposition. If folks vote tactically to stop Reform, they will struggle badly.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 11, 2026 6:04 PM BST
Most party leaders get a much better vote in constituency
than general trend. In effect they have a chance to vote
for a party leader/ prime minister, who is already far
more popular than the party he represents.

Offset against ...refuk cleaned up in wards within this constituency.

Labour almost certainly want to promote restore, to split vote.. But

42% seems low, according to betting.. (You can lay o43.5 at 1.57)
Report Cider June 11, 2026 6:14 PM BST

Jun 11, 2026 -- 5:35PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:


I think northerners are not much different to other folk. They're not hobbits. And they understand the real world. They know what's happening and they're overturning an almost cert-Reform seat because they're happy to be party to it.


I've noted it before. In the south there's a tendency to treat being northern like it's a mild, unavoidable affliction. In part possibly due to regional accents. But there's definitely an underlying assumption in my view. For me, northerners have much more what I would call common sense but don't have much time for those worthy talking head chats. There won't be much truck with gender swapping for example. I think I would be far more at home oop north, and I've not ruled out retiring there. Not merseyside, you'll be pleased to hear Grin

Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 11, 2026 6:54 PM BST
Suvverner cider realising he has less common sense
but blaming it on place he was born.

Lol

Give him another go.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 11, 2026 8:21 PM BST

Jun 11, 2026 -- 6:14PM, Cider wrote:


Jun 11, 2026 --  5:35PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:I think northerners are not much different to other folk. They're not hobbits. And they understand the real world. They know what's happening and they're overturning an almost cert-Reform seat because they're happy to be party to it.I've noted it before. In the south there's a tendency to treat being northern like it's a mild, unavoidable affliction. In part possibly due to regional accents. But there's definitely an underlying assumption in my view. For me, northerners have much more what I would call common sense but don't have much time for those worthy talking head chats. There won't be much truck with gender swapping for example. I think I would be far more at home oop north, and I've not ruled out retiring there. Not merseyside, you'll be pleased to hear


Yeah, I think you could do with spending time with some of them than just relying on old stereotypes. It’s not all flat caps and whippets.

Report Cider June 11, 2026 8:51 PM BST
Cumbria is on my radar. Pencilled plan at the moment is to do a bit of a tour of Northern racecourses, and I can scope out the areas as well. I have a few years before pension access alas, as they moved the goalposts to 57. I know how a waspi feels.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 11, 2026 9:30 PM BST

Jun 3, 2026 -- 2:30PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:


There's a hustings event at my daughter's college next week.Invites to about 50 students, but they need to be over 18 and live in the constituency.College has said they want a mix of political leanings among those kids, but apparently they're struggling to get anyone who would label themselves right wing.


My daughter managed to go to the hustings yesterday. Report is that Burnham was overwhelmingly the most popular. Applauded after every comment. Of course being responsible for free bus travel for kids went down well with the students there. Kenton again stumbled when sexism came up. Could only really manage a “he might be mayor but I drink in the same pubs as you” which was met by tumbleweed. Tory seemed a nice guy but knew he had no chance, while she preferred the Green candidate out of them all.

Arjust uour position accordingly .

Report Escapee June 12, 2026 12:59 PM BST
labour on the drift from 1.2 yesterday evening, reform in from 7.2


UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
6 Runners            £1,545,920 Matched   



              101.9%   99.9%             
Labour    1.28 1.29 1.3   1.32   1.33   1.34   £894,840
        £86 £496 £174     £196 £111 £1  
Reform    4.2 4.4 4.5   4.6   4.7   4.9   £274,322
        £100 £79 £18     £2 £33 £97  
Restore Britain    36 38 40   42   44   46   £372,941
        £109 £61 £20     £44 £142 £28  
Green    800 810 1000   -   -   -   £3,232
        £9 £2 £67              
Conservative    690 810 1000   -   -   -   £343
        £1 £1 £363              
Liberal Democrats    660 810 1000   -   -   -   £242
        £1 £1 £412              
Report yak hunt June 12, 2026 1:27 PM BST
Yes, noticed that. Someone is coming in with chunky bets every day or so on Reform, price shortens significantly, then drifts back out until the next day when pattern repeated.
Report blank June 13, 2026 2:46 PM BST
A couple more polls;

Opinium; Labour 46%, Reform 41%, Restore 7%
More in Common; Labour 45%, Reform 40%, Restore 8%

.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Makerfield_by-election

A lot closer than the last survation poll which had Labour 10 points ahead.
Report Escapee June 13, 2026 3:14 PM BST

A couple more polls;

Opinium; Labour 46%, Reform 41%, Restore 7%
More in Common; Labour 45%, Reform 40%, Restore 8%


Both those polls show reform have lost about 20% of their customers to Restore
looking Catastrophic for Reform, they would be leading if they had customer loyalty.

Report yak hunt June 13, 2026 3:16 PM BST
Yes, all to play for. I still feel that the Restore vote may be underestimated as their target group particularly focuses on folks who normally never vote. This may not be getting picked up by polling companies.
Report Escapee June 13, 2026 5:38 PM BST

I still feel that the Restore vote may be underestimated


I'm betting on the opposite, i.e. that they have been over estimated.

Green on 5-10%, Big Green on less than 5%

Report lux June 13, 2026 9:45 PM BST
I still feel that the Restore vote may be underestimated

43.9 million

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2058438480334664146
Report pandora1963 June 13, 2026 10:07 PM BST
if reform win labour are toast as a political force
Report pandora1963 June 13, 2026 10:08 PM BST
c ock of the north burnham may save them for a year or two
Report Escapee June 13, 2026 11:37 PM BST

lux

13 Jun 26 21:45

I still feel that the Restore vote may be underestimated

43.9 million

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2058438480334664146


I watched 2 of the 13 minutes.... does he ever stop going on about how bad it is ?


dull, dullllll with a lot of L's.



what's the difference between reform and restore?

Do they have different policies or are they both same product different company/owner?

Report blank June 13, 2026 11:47 PM BST
Labour 12 point lead- Sunday Times

Labour: 49
Reform: 37
Greens: 5
Restore: 5
Conservative: 3
Lib Dem: 1
Other: 1
Report Escapee June 15, 2026 12:37 PM BST
3 days till the polls open


UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election        
6 Runners            £1,681,120 Matched   



              101.1%   99.6%             
Labour    1.21 1.23 1.24   1.25   1.26   1.27   £983,689
        £136 £372 £934     £45 £133 £322  
Reform    5.4 5.5 5.6   5.7   5.8   6   £298,856
        £19 £140 £41     £146 £196 £6  
Restore Britain    40 42 44   48   50   55   £394,729
        £486 £53 £87     £50 £63 £18  
Green    800 810 1000   -   -   -   £3,246
        £9 £2 £117              
Conservative    690 810 1000   -   -   -   £355
        £1 £1 £400              
Liberal Democrats    660 810 1000   -   -   -   £245
        £1 £1 £420              
Report Escapee June 15, 2026 12:38 PM BST
UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield - Restore Britain Vote Percentage        
9 Runners            £48,543 Matched   



              105.3%   96.3%             
Less than 5%    4.4 4.9 5   6.2   6.4   6.8   £11,518
        £35 £10 £51     £3 £10 £90  
5-9.99%    2.26 2.28 2.3   2.32   2.44   2.46   £18,433
        £69 £68 £46     £33 £16 £10  
10-14.99%    4.6 4.7 4.9   5   5.1   5.2   £8,280
        £200 £36 £4     £9 £6 £30  
15-19.99%    10 10.5 11   12.5   13   13.5   £3,537
        £50 £9 £3     £2 £2 £1  
20-24.99%    18.5 19 19.5   25   27   28   £2,782
        £1 £5 £12     £1 £1 £10  
25-29.99%    28 29 30   38   40   42   £1,557
        £8 £5 £1     £1 £1 £5  
30-34.99%    48 50 65   75   90   110   £916
        £4 £6 £1     £2 £1 £2  
35-39.99%    65 70 75   170   180   560   £620
        £21 £1 £8     £1 £1 £2  
40% or more    75 85 100   180   260   980   £899
        £1 £2 £4     £1 £1 £2  
Report yak hunt June 15, 2026 3:56 PM BST
Money piling onto Labour now. There seems to be two main reasons..

1/ Tory MPs that were canvassing at the weekend are reporting that their voters are voting Labour to stop Reform.
2/ A huge number of weekend Restore canvassers (around 700) have allegedly been quite successful and have persuaded around 400 folks to put up Restore stakes in gardens etc. That is not a huge number but it seems significant.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 15, 2026 4:01 PM BST
1/ Tory MPs that were canvassing at the weekend are reporting that their voters are voting Labour to stop Reform.



Predictable that Farage encouraging violence on our streets to curry favour with Rupert's mob actually costs him votes on his other flank. He's got a problem trying to please both sides.
Report yak hunt June 15, 2026 4:02 PM BST
If you have 700 canvassers on any given day, who are reasonably well organised, you can speak to thousands of potential voters, possibly tens of thousands.
Report Cider June 15, 2026 5:51 PM BST
Tories preferring labour over Reform is hardly an astonishing revelation. As I stated previously, plenty of Tories preferred Labour to certain people running their own party. The establishment want to protect the establishment, quelle surprise.
Report Cider June 15, 2026 6:01 PM BST
Would be pretty interesting actually to see current Tories polled to see which party they would be affiliated with if the Tories disbanded. I reckon Reform would be at least third, behind labour and lib dum.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 15, 2026 6:39 PM BST
Long term, farage benefits from having a more extreme right wing
group, but needs to pitch his tent correctly.

Bad Enoch doing a good job of streaking out her ground at the moment.

Looking almost electable if she keeps the bullying tendencies buried.

But may suffer short term here.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 15, 2026 6:40 PM BST
Steaking not Steaking
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 15, 2026 8:43 PM BST
Tories preferring labour over Reform is hardly an astonishing revelation. As I stated previously, plenty of Tories preferred Labour to certain people running their own party. The establishment want to protect the establishment, quelle surprise.



In interesting news, right wingers in Wigan are now the establishment apparently.
Report Cider June 15, 2026 8:53 PM BST
Tory MPs that were canvassing at the weekend
Report Cider June 15, 2026 9:00 PM BST
Not like they are liars or anything. Why on earth would Tory MPs be wasting time canvassing in Makerfield. Try and save the deposit for CCHQ Grin

The legacy narrative since campaigning started is to make out that voting for reform is a waste of time, ie to make it a fait accompli for the 'king of the north'. That's why there is such a big noise around restore in my opinion. The daily t were at it last week.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 15, 2026 9:03 PM BST
How come there's always a conspiracy to explain any lack of total support for reform? Must be exhausting.
Report Cider June 15, 2026 9:06 PM BST
What makes you say that there's a 'lack of total support for reform?'

Surely you are not naïve enough to think that the narrative isn't used to try and influence the actual voting ?
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 15, 2026 9:08 PM BST
I'm saying you always have some "they're lying" to explain why people may not vote Reform, rather than just accept that a lot of voters simply don't like Farage, Jenrick et al.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 15, 2026 9:09 PM BST
I think a narrative of some canvassers "leaking" to a poster on an obscure and literally-visited-by-a-dozen-people betting forum isn't as compelling as you'd like it to be.
Report Cider June 15, 2026 9:13 PM BST
I'm not saying people aren't voting for Reform.

If you arrived from Mars, and looked at political discourse, you would be astonished to be informed that Reform have led the national opinion polls for over a year, and just won local elections on a national scale. The constructed narrative is as you put it. 'lack of total support for reform'. So the nudging has certainly worked on your good self.
Report Cider June 15, 2026 9:15 PM BST
I think the establishment are desperate for burnham to win this by election, and would do anything to achieve it. I think that was my first comment on the by election, that and they usually get what they want when they try this hard. Nothing has really deviated me from holding that opinion.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 15, 2026 9:16 PM BST
I don't think it's nudging. The narrative is about potentially the next PM. Naturally that's the most important thing. But equally, he's ahead in all of the polls. If he weren't the narrative would be about a Labour implosion, Burnham torching his career, Reform proving their chops etc etc. Unfortunately for your preferred narrative, there's nothing to really back that up. Every time they ask the people of Makerfield, the answer is Burnham no matter which way you ask the question.
Report Cider June 15, 2026 9:21 PM BST
opinion polls in by elections are part of the nudging.

we'll see how successful it is. obviously they impact the market, but they aren't worth a hill of beans in my view.

i remember corbyn winning his seat in 2024 after the opinion poll had him losing by double digits. I remember as I opposed the poll.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 15, 2026 9:31 PM BST
see, you're doing it again.


Just can't accept that voters prefer someone above the Reform guy. Just refuse to do so, so put it down to nudging instead of theses companies, which all live and die by their reputations, are apparently part of a conspiracy to nudge those voters towards a "successful" outcome of a Labour win.
Report Cider June 15, 2026 9:48 PM BST
that makes no sense, there won't be an outcome until Friday am.

both positions are consistent.

i expected the blob to do everything in their power to influence the result labour's way. i think that's what happened.

due to that being my expectation, i thought labour would edge it.

the narrative really ought to be that there shouldn't be a by election at all, the electorate is being manipulated and used in a deeply cynical manoeuvre to get what they believe will be a more favourable prime minister for the labour government. this is also a far more suitable outcome for remaining Tory supporters as they would see labour doing well then be made into a fringe party by reform. It's astonishing really that the westminster and mainstream media blob are prepared to welcome with open arms someone walking into #10, that isn't even currently a mp, and did not participate in the general election as a candidate.
Report A_T June 15, 2026 9:49 PM BST
usual crazy conspiracy theories from cider
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 15, 2026 10:04 PM BST
He's gone bonkers since he lost his job.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 15, 2026 10:17 PM BST
But your blob includes - by your own admission - the polling companies - all of them - who aren't just asking questions and reporting answers, but are doing so to ensure the narrative that Labour has got it sewn up.

Of course those same polling companies were not in the establishment for all of the national polling or during the local elections which went Reform's way. They've just joined the blob in the last few weeks, which miraculously coincides with maybe Reform not winning. And Reform not winning is down to this blob, not down to the fact that they aren't popular enough.

You need to ask yourself if spending so much time online is good for your mental health if I can be straight with you.
Report Cider June 15, 2026 11:25 PM BST
You're having laugh aren't you. You think commissioned polls are completely straight down the line Laugh

What I am telling you is that by election polls aren't worth a hill of beans. Usually tiny samples and can be easily tilted, within polling rules.

Only one poll counts, the actual vote obviously. Inevitably, they influence the betting markets. And help to create a narrative, whether you like it or not. No I don't think labour will be on 49% (or higher). It's not too long now until we'll find out.
Report Cider June 15, 2026 11:30 PM BST
I just this minute googled this. Incredible. These done the poll published for the sunday times (sample 525)
Report GLASGOWCALLING June 15, 2026 11:30 PM BST
Thought the prices of the front 2 would be closer if the latest poll is to be believed ...

   46% v 41%. ?
Report Cider June 15, 2026 11:30 PM BST
Report Cider June 16, 2026 12:02 AM BST
Similarly, although the Opinium poll was commissioned by two organisations with a clear political viewpoint – Forward Democracy and StopReformUK.Vote – Opinium are a reputable pollster and look to have followed a standard methodology.

Likewise, although some may be tempted to be cynical about the poll giving Labour the largest lead also being from a firm founded by two former Labour staffers....


Laugh

https://www.markpack.org.uk/176976/makerfield-by-election-polls-convergent-opinium/
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 16, 2026 7:38 AM BST
So, just to confirm, if you just arrived from Mars you'd see Reform ahead on a load of opinion polls and this would be a genuine reflection of public sentiment conveyed by reputable companies gauging the public's mood. But in another concentrated case, the same person would see another poll showing Reform not winning, and this would be a sign of those same pollsters being part of an establishment stitch up to play down the popularity of Reform.


cool
Report Cider June 16, 2026 8:55 AM BST
Er, no.

Whilst I do doubt the veracity of some national polls, that is completely different as they are not going to influence a general election at this point. It's just not the same, which you well know. If any polling company put labour ahead on national opinion polling, they wouldn't be a polling company for very long! Nobody cares how accurate tiny sampled by election polls are once the result is known. As they are notoriously inaccurate anyway. Whereas a polling company will rely on the predictability of their general election polling.

It is mildly amusing though that you appear to think that an organisation called 'StopReformUK.Vote', commissioning an opinion poll in a by election where Reform are considered runners will produce a completely clean report Happy

For the hundredth time, I'm not stating labour won't win the by election. I am stating that the published polling isn't reliable in regard to predicting the actual outcome. You can guess the result of a coin toss and half the time you'll be right, it doesn't mean that you are skilled at predicting the outcome of coin tosses.

I have explained what I am pretty confident about, I don't see restore doing as well as the narrative has been trying to portray. And I don't see labour getting 49% (or more).
Report yak hunt June 16, 2026 9:12 AM BST

Jun 16, 2026 -- 7:38AM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:


So, just to confirm, if you just arrived from Mars you'd see Reform ahead on a load of opinion polls and this would be a genuine reflection of public sentiment conveyed by reputable companies gauging the public's mood. But in another concentrated case, the same person would see another poll showing Reform not winning, and this would be a sign of those same pollsters being part of an establishment stitch up to play down the popularity of Reform.cool


Trump-esque Laugh

Report Cider June 16, 2026 9:15 AM BST
yak hunt

Had a lovely holiday in Cyprus and have come back to an absolute cracker of a by election market. First thoughts are in complete agreement with previous posters, a two horse race between Labour and Reform. Restore could easily stop any Reform chances but can't see any value at all in the current market, certainly can't have Labour at around 1.58.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 16, 2026 10:20 AM BST
Ahh, so "some" polls are ok. But only at certain times. And only if certain teams are winning.



Oh and can I just point out some basic maths.

You can guess the result of a coin toss and half the time you'll be right, it doesn't mean that you are skilled at predicting the outcome of coin tosses.


It actually does mean you are skilled at predicting coin tosses. It's not rocket science, but casinos make millions from the monte carlo fallacy where people ignore the rule of coin tosses.
Report Cider June 16, 2026 10:41 AM BST
What basic maths are you pointing out? Hopefully it was something that was missed out of my statistics degree, one never stops learning Happy
Report Cider June 16, 2026 10:43 AM BST
I know you are hard of hearing and all, so to reiterate. By election polls aren't worth a hill of beans.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 16, 2026 11:01 AM BST
...this one especially
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 16, 2026 12:09 PM BST
We are really missing a top 3 market on this.
Report yak hunt June 16, 2026 12:16 PM BST
Fair point but I would be very surprised if Restore aren't third.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 16, 2026 12:26 PM BST
Yeah, me too, but could have been some mileage in it over the duration.

And in these polarised elections it's easy for a shock.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- June 16, 2026 12:27 PM BST
Mr manipulator could win some cash Laugh
Report yak hunt June 16, 2026 12:34 PM BST
Having said that, the most recent poll has Restore and Greens tied at 5%, so you never know.
Report yak hunt June 16, 2026 4:16 PM BST
Reform drifting right out to 6.0+ again, as Labour price shortens.
Report Cider June 17, 2026 9:37 AM BST
Sarah Pochin is doing the media for Reform on Makerfield election night. Seems that they aren't too hopeful.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 17, 2026 10:12 AM BST
Bloody hell, Labour's odds have come in a fair bit since I last checked.
Report rothko June 17, 2026 11:07 AM BST
Great a labour leadership battle - just what the country needs
Then presumably into a general election given if Burnham wins he wouldnt want to be constrained by a manifesto he had no input into and the legitimacy argument and pressure he would be put under like Theresa May
Report the old nanny ;-) June 17, 2026 11:11 AM BST
Sir Keir Starmer has warned Andy Burnham against launching an immediate challenge to his leadership if he becomes an MP, urging him, and the party, to focus instead on the election for a new Greater Manchester mayor. Laugh
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 17, 2026 11:11 AM BST
No chance of an election imo. (Though we are definitely getting 12 months of cry@rsing from the right wingers and their loyal parrots for one)
Report Cider June 17, 2026 11:17 AM BST
10 years since the brexit vote was won, so a very long way to go to meet the salt from those losers (still salty)
Report the old nanny ;-) June 17, 2026 11:22 AM BST
Speaking from the G7 summit, the prime minister said a leadership contest would be a "bad thing" for the country and reiterated that he intended to fight any challenge.
Report the old nanny ;-) June 17, 2026 11:24 AM BST
He will have to be carted out of Number Ten
Report rothko June 17, 2026 11:44 AM BST
I suppose the thing that goes against an election is that a lot of labour MPs will lose their seats

But if Burnham wins he has a massive job in uniting the party with Starmer sitting on the back benches

He is hamstrung by the pledges in the manifesto particularly on tax. I think he has said he will stick to the fiscal rules so no money to do anything new as he wont tackle the welfare bill

The future for the country looks rosy
Report Cider June 17, 2026 11:50 AM BST
They'll just do what rachel from accounts did, and create new rules.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 17, 2026 12:01 PM BST
I think the party is pretty united behind Burham. At least at this stage. Even if someone like Streeting has a go, he's said nice things about him and doesn't want to burn any bridges. Seems pretty common. Basically they've concocted this daft coronation process because everyone from the MPs to the members to the electorate have overwhelmingly decided they prefer him.

I've said before Starmer should be offered Foreign Sec or something similar. He's very skilled in that area and has made some great relationships. I'd also offer Corbyn a place back fwiw and still offer ministerial seats to right wingers like Streeting and Carns. Just get the message across that Labour is a broad church.

As for tax, it's an opportunity to maybe change though the Lords could well say no. Either way, he's just got to get on with it. Hopefully the fact that he's a far better communicator than Starmer and has a lot of experience of running a government (though on a much smaller scale) means he'll be able to deliver a plan.
Report ALIEN SEX FIEND June 17, 2026 12:18 PM BST
Maybe wrong place to put this, next election, Restore 15 to win most seats next election? I thought nearer 500, are they that popular, I do not know anybody who mentions them, this is not a wind up, maybe as I have taken early retirement I am getting out of touch.
Report rothko June 17, 2026 12:49 PM BST
there is no way Starmer would accept a cabinet post after being PM
Surely he has more self respect than that
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 17, 2026 1:12 PM BST
Dunno.

I'd say you're probably right but then Cameron came back (after a gap). Sunak is still a constituency MP when we all thought he'd be well in Silicon Valley by now. Miliband stuck around and seems happy enough. I imagine foreign office with the state of the world at present is still a very prestigious role and he might just say yes (out of service to the country etc etc).
Report Cider June 17, 2026 1:33 PM BST
It's s bit different if the current manager displaced you. But Starmer is uniquely shameless.
Report rothko June 17, 2026 1:34 PM BST
i couldnt see him working for the man who ousted him - imagine the cabinet meetings with Starmer having to sit there meekly listening to the new boss

Milliband and Sunak stuck around as back bench MPs which I imagine Starmer would do until the election
Report Cider June 17, 2026 1:41 PM BST
Would defeat the whole purpose of the project anyway. They will be trying to portray it as a new brand new government, far removed from the current sh111t show.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 17, 2026 2:02 PM BST
I'd certainly back him to walk away if give Evs, but I don't think he'd be a rank outsider to take another position.




And since when are they portraying it as a brand new government? Doesn't feel like there'll be wholesale changes apart from PM. There'll be a re-shuffle of some sort, but it feels mostly like the same pieces being moved to different places rather than a full on out with the old.
Report Cider June 17, 2026 2:10 PM BST
It's politics isn't it. They won't be swept out, but demoted or operating in the background. Won't be many left this time next year. Red ed won't be going anywhere, likely promoted.
Report PorcupineorPineapple June 17, 2026 2:18 PM BST
It'll be the same faces mostly. Healey will be back in defence. Carns will be back. Streeting. Rayner. Miliband. Mahmoud. Reeves. They'll all still be there.
Report the old nanny ;-) June 17, 2026 2:19 PM BST
Surely he has more self respect than that  Laugh

where u been the past year Roth ?
Report rothko June 17, 2026 3:04 PM BST
Laugh
Report Cider June 17, 2026 7:01 PM BST
The BBC has been slammed after it emerged two asylum seekers who appeared on an episode of Question Time had been coached by 'charity' campaigners.

In the episode, filmed on December 5 in Dover, the audience featured two men who had crossed the Channel in small boats.

The BBC previously told GB News that all those on the panel were informed "the day before the show that there would be people in the audience who had been through the asylum system".

Now, it has been revealed the two men were placed in the audience and coached beforehand by the migration support 'charity' Imix.

One of the asylum seekers featured in the programme was Ashraf, an Afghan national who crossed the Channel.

He told the panel he arrived in the UK around five year ago after trying to seek sanctuary in Turkey, Macedonia, Serbia, Romania, Austria and Germany, adding he left Afghanistan because it "is not safe".

Later on in the programme, host Fiona Bruce introduced an Iranian man in the audience named only as Alireza, who read a statement from his phone, arguing that leaving the Refugee Convention would be harmful to the rights of British people, not just refugees.

Their appearance was overseen by Imix’s Chief Executive Jenni Regan who was also on the show and was selected to ask a question, reports The Telegraph.

Ms Regan, who also volunteers with the RNLI in the Channel Laugh, later said appearing on Question Time was a daunting experience. She added: "Dover is not a particularly multicultural area" and she was therefore "conscious that many in the audience might hold anti-migrant views".

A Reform UK spokesman said: "It is no surprise that the Question Time: Immigration Special sparked so many complaints. The programme represented a clear failure of impartiality, editorial judgment and audience selection by the BBC.

"We are seeing an increasingly blatant pattern of bias and prejudice from the taxpayer-funded broadcaster.

"The question remains as to why did the BBC think it was appropriate to give a national platform to men who entered Britain illegally, allowing them to lecture the British public and attempt to manipulate opinion on the immigration crisis?"

In the episode, Reform UK's Zia Yusuf told Ashraf he would be deported if Mr Farage becomes the Prime Minister.

When Ms Bruce asked Mr Yusuf if migrants such as Ashraf would be deported under a potential Reform government, he replied: "I don’t know enough about that particular story.

"In terms of broad strokes, if you are entering from a war zone, it is generally women and children first and the vast majority of the people coming to this country, via the English Channel, illegally, are men."

A spokesman from the BBC told GB News Imix was one of a number of organisations contacted before filming, with producers saying they want to "find audience members that could give different perspectives on the debate about immigration in the UK".
Report Cider June 17, 2026 7:06 PM BST
sorry for being divisive Plain
Report Escapee June 17, 2026 7:17 PM BST
Didn't hear you moaning when they did the same and planted pro brexit, or pro reform people in the audience.

The producers are tasked with making a programme where opposing views are voiced, they are not going to leave it to
chance that the audience randomly comprises of people with opposing and or unpopular views.
Report Cider June 17, 2026 8:29 PM BST
Did they, what's the evidence of that?

It's obviously been self evident for years that qt has been r i g g e d to propagandise the liberalist narrative.

It (the bbc) tries to have a veneer of impartiality, but the actual truth is rather different.
Report jollyswagman June 17, 2026 9:07 PM BST
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17647208.bbc-question-time-defends-audience-selection-process-following-bias-complaints/

The BBC has defended its vetting process for Question Time after a former Conservative MSP and a number of councillors appeared as part of the show's audience in Elgin.

Mary Scanlon, who served as a Conservative MSP for over a decade, appeared on the show, as a member of the audience.

Viewers took to social media after spotting Scanlon alongside a number of Conservative councillors.

Responding to the criticism over the audience selection, a spokesperson for the BBC said: “Question Time does not bar people from its audience because they have held elected office or are political activists.

There is a selection process to ensure a range of views are heard and last night’s QT audience included supporters of different political parties, including the SNP.”

The SNP MP Stewart McDonald was quick to point out that the MSP was part of the crowd tweeting “Why is former Tory MSP Mary Scanlon – 1999 to 2016 – pretending to be an audience punter on #BBCQT?”

Tory MSP Edward Mountain, replying to McDonald, said: "I think, as she is no longer an MSP, that she is just a voter. I also know she will have been through the audience vetting process."

MSP Jenny Gilruth asked: “Why is Mary Scanlon, former Tory MSP, being allowed to ask questions as if she’s a normal punter on #BBCQT? Outrageous.


i remember seeing a left winger on twitter complaining that a tory councillor was repeatedly in the bbc audience.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/is-question-time-s-audience-producer-really-fascist/ - wow, trying to recruit audience members from the edl but not the local conservative party. and even more left wing bias Crazy - a person who recruits the audience sharing and liking posts from britain first.


the bbc get it in the neck from all sides about audience selection.
Report saddo June 17, 2026 9:59 PM BST
Fran Unsworth used to run BBC news, she'll tell you about their 'world view'
if you can be bothered.
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