| UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election |
| 6 Runners £201,455 Matched |
| 100.9% | 99.3% | |||||||
| Labour | 1.62 | 1.63 | 1.64 | 1.66 | 1.67 | 1.68 | £123,284 | |
| £117 | £123 | £124 | £845 | £20 | £100 | |||
| Reform | 2.74 | 2.76 | 2.78 | 2.82 | 2.84 | 2.88 | £56,046 | |
| £88 | £198 | £84 | £47 | £61 | £22 | |||
| Restore Britain | 26 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 34 | £21,280 | |
| £268 | £665 | £23 | £17 | £154 | £200 | |||
| Green | 270 | 300 | 320 | 440 | 450 | 470 | £708 | |
| £5 | £3 | £4 | £2 | £1 | £10 | |||
| Conservative | 680 | 810 | 1000 | - | - | - | £68 | |
| £1 | £1 | £57 | ||||||
| Liberal Democrats | 800 | 810 | 1000 | - | - | - | £70 | |
| £1 | £1 | £57 |
Cider: As I stated before, anyone deliberately voting restore likely wouldn't have voted at all, otherwise.
Just to clarify.
Are you saying there is 10-15% of the turnout which Reform could have picked up but didn't bother to try or weren't using the right tools and so Restore just came along and picked them up?
You're kinda saying that Reform are either incompetent or aren't fighting this by-election whole heartedly.
Which do you think it is?
Jun 11, 2026 -- 4:35PM, Cider wrote:
I've explained it at length before to be fair. There are people that want reform to be ruthless. But they aren't pragmatic, and don't understand politics. Reform needs to win a ge, and ideally win an om when doing so. To do that they need to win over moderates.
Indeed. And that's the bind they're in. Do they go more centrist and try to peel off tories and maybe an odd labour vote or two, or does he worry about the right flank and try to win back the nutjobs? You can't really do both.
Jun 11, 2026 -- 5:35PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:
I think northerners are not much different to other folk. They're not hobbits. And they understand the real world. They know what's happening and they're overturning an almost cert-Reform seat because they're happy to be party to it.
I've noted it before. In the south there's a tendency to treat being northern like it's a mild, unavoidable affliction. In part possibly due to regional accents. But there's definitely an underlying assumption in my view. For me, northerners have much more what I would call common sense but don't have much time for those worthy talking head chats. There won't be much truck with gender swapping for example. I think I would be far more at home oop north, and I've not ruled out retiring there. Not merseyside, you'll be pleased to hear
Jun 11, 2026 -- 6:14PM, Cider wrote:
Jun 11, 2026 -- 5:35PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:I think northerners are not much different to other folk. They're not hobbits. And they understand the real world. They know what's happening and they're overturning an almost cert-Reform seat because they're happy to be party to it.I've noted it before. In the south there's a tendency to treat being northern like it's a mild, unavoidable affliction. In part possibly due to regional accents. But there's definitely an underlying assumption in my view. For me, northerners have much more what I would call common sense but don't have much time for those worthy talking head chats. There won't be much truck with gender swapping for example. I think I would be far more at home oop north, and I've not ruled out retiring there. Not merseyside, you'll be pleased to hear
Yeah, I think you could do with spending time with some of them than just relying on old stereotypes. It’s not all flat caps and whippets.
Jun 3, 2026 -- 2:30PM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:
There's a hustings event at my daughter's college next week.Invites to about 50 students, but they need to be over 18 and live in the constituency.College has said they want a mix of political leanings among those kids, but apparently they're struggling to get anyone who would label themselves right wing.
My daughter managed to go to the hustings yesterday. Report is that Burnham was overwhelmingly the most popular. Applauded after every comment. Of course being responsible for free bus travel for kids went down well with the students there. Kenton again stumbled when sexism came up. Could only really manage a “he might be mayor but I drink in the same pubs as you” which was met by tumbleweed. Tory seemed a nice guy but knew he had no chance, while she preferred the Green candidate out of them all.
Arjust uour position accordingly .
| UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election |
| 6 Runners £1,545,920 Matched |
| 101.9% | 99.9% | |||||||
| Labour | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.3 | 1.32 | 1.33 | 1.34 | £894,840 | |
| £86 | £496 | £174 | £196 | £111 | £1 | |||
| Reform | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.9 | £274,322 | |
| £100 | £79 | £18 | £2 | £33 | £97 | |||
| Restore Britain | 36 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 44 | 46 | £372,941 | |
| £109 | £61 | £20 | £44 | £142 | £28 | |||
| Green | 800 | 810 | 1000 | - | - | - | £3,232 | |
| £9 | £2 | £67 | ||||||
| Conservative | 690 | 810 | 1000 | - | - | - | £343 | |
| £1 | £1 | £363 | ||||||
| Liberal Democrats | 660 | 810 | 1000 | - | - | - | £242 | |
| £1 | £1 | £412 |
A couple more polls;
Opinium; Labour 46%, Reform 41%, Restore 7%
More in Common; Labour 45%, Reform 40%, Restore 8%
Both those polls show reform have lost about 20% of their customers to Restore
looking Catastrophic for Reform, they would be leading if they had customer loyalty.
I still feel that the Restore vote may be underestimated
I'm betting on the opposite, i.e. that they have been over estimated.
Green on 5-10%, Big Green on less than 5%
lux
13 Jun 26 21:45
I still feel that the Restore vote may be underestimated
43.9 million
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2058438480334664146
I watched 2 of the 13 minutes.... does he ever stop going on about how bad it is ?
dull, dullllll with a lot of L's.
what's the difference between reform and restore?
Do they have different policies or are they both same product different company/owner?
| UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield by-election |
| 6 Runners £1,681,120 Matched |
| 101.1% | 99.6% | |||||||
| Labour | 1.21 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.25 | 1.26 | 1.27 | £983,689 | |
| £136 | £372 | £934 | £45 | £133 | £322 | |||
| Reform | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 6 | £298,856 | |
| £19 | £140 | £41 | £146 | £196 | £6 | |||
| Restore Britain | 40 | 42 | 44 | 48 | 50 | 55 | £394,729 | |
| £486 | £53 | £87 | £50 | £63 | £18 | |||
| Green | 800 | 810 | 1000 | - | - | - | £3,246 | |
| £9 | £2 | £117 | ||||||
| Conservative | 690 | 810 | 1000 | - | - | - | £355 | |
| £1 | £1 | £400 | ||||||
| Liberal Democrats | 660 | 810 | 1000 | - | - | - | £245 | |
| £1 | £1 | £420 |
| UK - By-Elections -- Makerfield - Restore Britain Vote Percentage |
| 9 Runners £48,543 Matched |
| 105.3% | 96.3% | |||||||
| Less than 5% | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | £11,518 | |
| £35 | £10 | £51 | £3 | £10 | £90 | |||
| 5-9.99% | 2.26 | 2.28 | 2.3 | 2.32 | 2.44 | 2.46 | £18,433 | |
| £69 | £68 | £46 | £33 | £16 | £10 | |||
| 10-14.99% | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | £8,280 | |
| £200 | £36 | £4 | £9 | £6 | £30 | |||
| 15-19.99% | 10 | 10.5 | 11 | 12.5 | 13 | 13.5 | £3,537 | |
| £50 | £9 | £3 | £2 | £2 | £1 | |||
| 20-24.99% | 18.5 | 19 | 19.5 | 25 | 27 | 28 | £2,782 | |
| £1 | £5 | £12 | £1 | £1 | £10 | |||
| 25-29.99% | 28 | 29 | 30 | 38 | 40 | 42 | £1,557 | |
| £8 | £5 | £1 | £1 | £1 | £5 | |||
| 30-34.99% | 48 | 50 | 65 | 75 | 90 | 110 | £916 | |
| £4 | £6 | £1 | £2 | £1 | £2 | |||
| 35-39.99% | 65 | 70 | 75 | 170 | 180 | 560 | £620 | |
| £21 | £1 | £8 | £1 | £1 | £2 | |||
| 40% or more | 75 | 85 | 100 | 180 | 260 | 980 | £899 | |
| £1 | £2 | £4 | £1 | £1 | £2 |




Jun 16, 2026 -- 7:38AM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:
So, just to confirm, if you just arrived from Mars you'd see Reform ahead on a load of opinion polls and this would be a genuine reflection of public sentiment conveyed by reputable companies gauging the public's mood. But in another concentrated case, the same person would see another poll showing Reform not winning, and this would be a sign of those same pollsters being part of an establishment stitch up to play down the popularity of Reform.cool
Trump-esque

, later said appearing on Question Time was a daunting experience. She added: "Dover is not a particularly multicultural area" and she was therefore "conscious that many in the audience might hold anti-migrant views".
- a person who recruits the audience sharing and liking posts from britain first.