Reform were 3.5 on clacton by election day.

They upped their 2024 vote count by almost 1,000 in 2026 against a dustbin.

This is the safest reform seat in the country, and reform channeled pretty much every resource and activist
they had in the country into this by election.

The market has moved into 3.2 as a response to the victory.
I think it's moved the wrong way, 22k in their safest seat is not going to pan out to most seats in the next election IMHO.

I'm looking for a lay to back trade, as the market will inevitably soon drift to 4.0 as reality seeps back in.

G'luck if you're beting on this market.

UK - Next General Election -- Most Seats

9 Runners            £3,361,485 Matched

			97%		94.9%
Labour	2.66	2.68	2.7		2.72	2.74	2.76	£861,566
	£201	£51	£154		£4	£9	£121
Reform UK	3.1	3.15	3.2		3.25	3.3	3.35	£1,662,971
	£28	£73	£6		£313	£10	£215
Conservatives	4.9	5	5.1		5.2	5.3	5.4	£319,989
	£25	£88	£81		£2	£69	£49
Restore Britain	19	19.5	20		22	23	24	£220,489
	£107	£83	£30		£69	£24	£4
Green Party	40	42	44		48	50	55	£233,503
	£20	£12	£33		£8	£28	£19
Liberal Democrats	60	65	70		75	80	85	£43,479
	£58	£14	£23		£16	£12	£1
Your Party	390	420	520		600	620	640	£8,435
	£2	£2	£3		£5	£4	£2
Workers Party of Britain	900	910	1000		-	-	-	£2,306
	£2	£3	£13
Advance UK	760	810	1000		-	-	-	£8,745
	£2	£3	£1

General Election Nowcast - 16/08/26:

LAB: 244 (-167) | 25.4% (82 Short)
RFM: 143 (+138) | 24.1%
CON: 96 (-25) | 19.6%
LDM: 73 (+1) | 10.5%
SNP: 43 (+34) | 2.7%
GRN: 13 (+9) | 10.5%
PLC: 12 (+8) | 1.3%
RES: 1 (+1) | 3.1%
Oth: 6 (+1) | 2.9%

https://electionmaps.uk/nowcast