if reform are genuine contenders for next govt then they will have to win this by election

Not really true, but it's a test of what they can poll in
the spotlight.

By elections are different fish to general elections.

It's not a seat they need in a general election, but
perhaps more important is to gauge the willingness of
the public to vote tactically.

Refuk need labour and green to split the vote so
the 30-35% they may get can be enough to win.

Fascinating contest.

Didn't get the 30% they needed to be competitive

Surprising they didn't get more votes when you consider a big X is also their supporters' signature.

Farage was too chicken to campaign.

He won't have a choice in a GE.

This is the problem with Reform. They have a relatively low ceiling and if other parties vote tactically to stop them, they can't win seats.

The result of the Gorton & Denton by election was a disaster for Farage and Reform. It proved conclusively that people are prepared to vote tactically in order to defeat the harbingers of division and hate. I doubt if Farage ever wanted to be Prime Minister anyway? He's raking in too much money from appearing on GB News. The demise of Reform UK will allow Farage to do what he does best; swilling ale in the nearest pub.

I don't think there was much tactical voting really. Labour weren't far from second place. In fact you could have added and halved the Green/Labour vote and it would have still won. This wasn't a case of people lending votes to ensure someone else doesn't win necessarily; more a case of the parties ensuring their voters got out to the ballot booth.

Labour weren't far from second place.

Really!

This was Labour's 6th safest seat!

It was a disaster for Keir Starmer. The only reason he's not facing a putsch this weekend is there is worse to come.

Come 8th May he will be offered the revolver.

This was Labour's 6th safest seat!

Incredible seeing people analyzing this without mentioning that.

People think Reform might win a GE, no one thought they were going to win 500+ seats

https://x.com/i/status/2028055452852834671

Karl Turner , Labour MP  one of the few decent ones left brilliant

30% for reform in an extremely left wing seat is well above par needed to win a general election. they won't be remotely competing with the greens in a general election anyway. the greens will be taking votes in similar metropolitan seats with demographics like this one which are virtually all currently held by labour

30% might be their upper limit, in almost all seats, with tactical voting in play.

They were expected to get 30-35%, got 29%

Maybe because turnout was higher than average for by election
in relative terms, their vote was slightly
diluted in % terms

Lab / green got 66%, so refuk could not have won.
Unless they got stay at homes to vote.

We already knew it was a seat low down in their
expectations but they put a lot into it, and merely
succeeded in concentrating opposition to them more
than galvanizing their own support.

Doubtless they will take results and hope to improve tactics
if they are serious about winning an election.