Politics
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30 Jan 26
22:15
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28 Aug 07
No if's no but's. Worst govt in history, all the media behind them , leader who gets non stop publicity, they should be winning this seat easily, unlesss.....people are starting to rumble the cranks for what they are
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Replies: 13
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Not really true, but it's a test of what they can poll in
the spotlight. By elections are different fish to general elections. It's not a seat they need in a general election, but perhaps more important is to gauge the willingness of the public to vote tactically. Refuk need labour and green to split the vote so the 30-35% they may get can be enough to win. Fascinating contest. |
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Didn't get the 30% they needed to be competitive
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Surprising they didn't get more votes when you consider a big X is also their supporters' signature.
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Farage was too chicken to campaign.
He won't have a choice in a GE. |
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This is the problem with Reform. They have a relatively low ceiling and if other parties vote tactically to stop them, they can't win seats.
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The result of the Gorton & Denton by election was a disaster for Farage and Reform. It proved conclusively that people are prepared to vote tactically in order to defeat the harbingers of division and hate. I doubt if Farage ever wanted to be Prime Minister anyway? He's raking in too much money from appearing on GB News. The demise of Reform UK will allow Farage to do what he does best; swilling ale in the nearest pub.
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I don't think there was much tactical voting really. Labour weren't far from second place. In fact you could have added and halved the Green/Labour vote and it would have still won. This wasn't a case of people lending votes to ensure someone else doesn't win necessarily; more a case of the parties ensuring their voters got out to the ballot booth.
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This was Labour's 6th safest seat!
Incredible seeing people analyzing this without mentioning that. People think Reform might win a GE, no one thought they were going to win 500+ seats |
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https://x.com/i/status/2028055452852834671
Karl Turner , Labour MP one of the few decent ones left  brilliant |
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30% for reform in an extremely left wing seat is well above par needed to win a general election. they won't be remotely competing with the greens in a general election anyway. the greens will be taking votes in similar metropolitan seats with demographics like this one which are virtually all currently held by labour
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30% might be their upper limit, in almost all seats, with tactical voting in play.
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They were expected to get 30-35%, got 29%
Maybe because turnout was higher than average for by election in relative terms, their vote was slightly diluted in % terms Lab / green got 66%, so refuk could not have won. Unless they got stay at homes to vote. We already knew it was a seat low down in their expectations but they put a lot into it, and merely succeeded in concentrating opposition to them more than galvanizing their own support. Doubtless they will take results and hope to improve tactics if they are serious about winning an election. |