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17 Jun 24
15:09
Joined:
Date Joined:
04 Jul 15
you have until 10.00pm on 4 July to name the party you think will have most representation in parliament and state how many MPs they will get.
it is just a bit of harmless fun, sadly the loudest voices on here usually arent brave enough to take part. anyone who doesnt take part but aftertimes poor calls will feature on the aftertimers thread (i say this as my clueless guess is somewhat divergent to the polls
).
forum bragging rights and a hamper from fortnum and mason await the winner. good luck.
it is just a bit of harmless fun, sadly the loudest voices on here usually arent brave enough to take part. anyone who doesnt take part but aftertimes poor calls will feature on the aftertimers thread (i say this as my clueless guess is somewhat divergent to the polls
).forum bragging rights and a hamper from fortnum and mason await the winner. good luck.
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Should get bonus points for guessing 17 days in advance.
Labour 370
Labour 370
Should get bonus points for guessing 17 days in advance.
Definitely!
Definitely!
that can be the tie breaker in the unlikely event of a draw @youhavetolaugh
AT reform 1 seat means they arent the biggest party, please try again
Still working through my spreadsheet, but will add something before 4/7
so far all the participants have gone for labour
jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
ya**** 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399
if lfc doesnt reappear i will enter for him, either tory 600 or reform 600. anything's possible, i read it somewhere.
jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
ya**** 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399
if lfc doesnt reappear i will enter for him, either tory 600 or reform 600. anything's possible, i read it somewhere.
Reform only have 609 candidates
Lfc would be going for refuk 609
Anything is possible though.
Lfc would be going for refuk 609
Anything is possible though.
Reform only have 609 candidates
lost already
I will give it a go
labour 320
lost already
I will give it a go
labour 320
thank you xmoneyx and charlie
its a bit of harmless fun
its a bit of harmless fun
Nigel Farage
@Nigel_Farage
ELECTION INTERFERENCE ALERT
Today's Mail on Sunday claimed President Zelensky said that I was personally infected with Putinism. This is totally untrue and I have instructed Carter Ruck to deal with it.
@Nigel_Farage
ELECTION INTERFERENCE ALERT
Today's Mail on Sunday claimed President Zelensky said that I was personally infected with Putinism. This is totally untrue and I have instructed Carter Ruck to deal with it.
Scottish Westminster poll 10pm tonight
not that it matters
not that it matters
BBS +
EXCLUSIVE: New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Survation 21-25 Jun (changes vs 23-27 May):
Lab ~ 37% (+1)
SNP ~ 31% (-1)
Con ~ 14% (-3)
RUK ~ 8% (new)
LD ~ 7% (-2)
Grn ~ 3% (new)
Alba ~ 1% (+1)
EXCLUSIVE: New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Survation 21-25 Jun (changes vs 23-27 May):
Lab ~ 37% (+1)
SNP ~ 31% (-1)
Con ~ 14% (-3)
RUK ~ 8% (new)
LD ~ 7% (-2)
Grn ~ 3% (new)
Alba ~ 1% (+1)
new statesman latest poll on tory/refofm
tory - 90 seats
reform - 7 seats
tory - 90 seats
reform - 7 seats
Wings Over Scotland
@WingsScotland
This is a pure gut feeling, based on ZERO serious analysis and just pulling numbers out of fresh air, but I reckon the election will pan out something like this.
Labour: 452
Tories: 114
Lib Dems: 48
SNP: 14
DUP: 8
Reform: 2
Green: 1
Others: 12
@WingsScotland
This is a pure gut feeling, based on ZERO serious analysis and just pulling numbers out of fresh air, but I reckon the election will pan out something like this.
Labour: 452
Tories: 114
Lib Dems: 48
SNP: 14
DUP: 8
Reform: 2
Green: 1
Others: 12
Going into the spirit of it my guess is 393 Labour seats.
Northern Ireland,
Sinn Fein 8
DUP 6
Alliance 2
SDLP 2
Northern Ireland,
Sinn Fein 8
DUP 6
Alliance 2
SDLP 2
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
MODEL UPDATE | How would the UK vote if the election was held today?
LAB: 436 MPs (+236)
CON: 96 (-282)
LDEM: 68 (+60)
SNP: 23 (-25)
REF: 7 (+7)
GRN: 4 (+3)
PC: 3 (+1)
via Britain Predicts, 29 Jun
@BritainElects
MODEL UPDATE | How would the UK vote if the election was held today?
LAB: 436 MPs (+236)
CON: 96 (-282)
LDEM: 68 (+60)
SNP: 23 (-25)
REF: 7 (+7)
GRN: 4 (+3)
PC: 3 (+1)
via Britain Predicts, 29 Jun
thank you lapsy and dotchinite, i will update tomorrow.
feel free to enter everybody.
feel free to enter everybody.
YouGov
@YouGov
·
Jun 29
New YouGov Westminster voting intention (Scotland)*
Lab: 35%
SNP: 29%
Con: 11%
Lib Dem: 11%
Reform UK: 8%
Green: 5%
TORY WIPEOUT SCOTLAND
@YouGov
·
Jun 29
New YouGov Westminster voting intention (Scotland)*
Lab: 35%
SNP: 29%
Con: 11%
Lib Dem: 11%
Reform UK: 8%
Green: 5%
TORY WIPEOUT SCOTLAND
so far everyone is predicting labour as the biggest party with the following number of MPs
jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
yak hunt 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399
charlie 406
xmoneyx 320
lapsy pa 393
dotchinite 500
jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
yak hunt 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399
charlie 406
xmoneyx 320
lapsy pa 393
dotchinite 500
I believe Tories will do better than expected, many Tory voters traditionally are ashamed of being Tory voters and so they tell pollsters untruths. Also old people who are more likely to be Tories turnout to vote more than lazy 20somethings.
Another prediction is Prime Minister Starmer will be generous and gracious toward defeated Rish Sunak in his victory speech because he recognizes Rishi Sunak is not actaully a bad person like say Boris Johnson is a bad person.
The final MRP projection by
@Survation
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3
34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
@Survation
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3
34,558 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3
Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.
Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3
Final YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory
Labour: 431 (+229 from GE2019 result)
Con: 102 (-263)
Lib Dem: 72 (+61)
SNP: 18 (-30)
Reform UK: 3 (+3)
Plaid: 3 (-1)
Green: 2 (+1)
Labour: 431 (+229 from GE2019 result)
Con: 102 (-263)
Lib Dem: 72 (+61)
SNP: 18 (-30)
Reform UK: 3 (+3)
Plaid: 3 (-1)
Green: 2 (+1)
with a day to go we have the following, all for labour
jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
yak hunt 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399
charlie 406
xmoneyx 320
lapsy pa 393
dotchinite 500
foinavon 377
glow worm 402
keyboard_line 400
jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
yak hunt 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399
charlie 406
xmoneyx 320
lapsy pa 393
dotchinite 500
foinavon 377
glow worm 402
keyboard_line 400
5 major polling companies
highest labour 484
lowest labour 430
highest tory 126
lowest tory 64
highest labour 484
lowest labour 430
highest tory 126
lowest tory 64
five hours to go.
all going for labour as biggest party
jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
yak hunt 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399
charlie 406
xmoneyx 320
lapsy pa 393
dotchinite 500
foinavon 377
glow worm 402
keyboard_line 400
martink 457
pleasegivemeanaildontip 388
salmon spray 402
fife 406
all going for labour as biggest party
jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
yak hunt 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399
charlie 406
xmoneyx 320
lapsy pa 393
dotchinite 500
foinavon 377
glow worm 402
keyboard_line 400
martink 457
pleasegivemeanaildontip 388
salmon spray 402
fife 406
ttt
jolly use this thread to post results & rumours after 10pm ?
jolly use this thread to post results & rumours after 10pm ?
if you want xmoneyx although someone might start an in-running thread.
declaration times
anyone want to know declaration time of own seat - just ask I will post it
anyone want to know declaration time of own seat - just ask I will post it
ok, if still conscious will probably be in a shape, what about clacton?
scotland seat declarations
1am: 3 seats
2am: 8
3am: 23
4am: 16
5am: 6
6am: 1
1am: 3 seats
2am: 8
3am: 23
4am: 16
5am: 6
6am: 1
polling stations in scotland have been busy
not sure if it favours labour or snp
not sure if it favours labour or snp
my polling station was dead when i went in about 5, asked the person if it has been busy, suppose they cant give much away, just said, oh its up and down
i would guess lower turnout favours snp up here, dunno
Nicola looks mega embarrassed on ITV
must know the result scotland
must know the result scotland
final entries all for labour
jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
yak hunt 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399
charlie 406
xmoneyx 320
lapsy pa 393
dotchinite 500
foinavon 377
glow worm 402
keyboard_line 400
martink 457
pleasegivemeanaildontip 388
salmon spray 402
fife 406
hayden 446
drumard 419
the dragon 401
jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
yak hunt 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399
charlie 406
xmoneyx 320
lapsy pa 393
dotchinite 500
foinavon 377
glow worm 402
keyboard_line 400
martink 457
pleasegivemeanaildontip 388
salmon spray 402
fife 406
hayden 446
drumard 419
the dragon 401
5 major polling companies
highest labour 484
lowest labour 430
highest tory 126
lowest tory 64
polls don't seem very good at number of seats.
Exit poll suggests Reform is set to win Hartlepool
that will shut mandleson up
that will shut mandleson up
George Galloway is set to lose his Rochdale seat to Labour
Peter Smith on ITV says the SNP are telling him they're not even certain of holding Dundee Central, their safest seat.
Well-placed source has just predicted that Labour will win Aberdeen South, which would see SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn lose his seat
DISASTER
DISASTER
I like flynn, he would be a huge loss to Parliament.
he did well enough at PMQ's and on TV, if he goes, whoever is their next leader at westminster wont be getting the same exposure
i hope the result for aberdeen south does come at half 1, thats soon, its a belter really, last 4 elections went 2019 SNP, 2017 tory,2015 SNP,2010 labour
i hope the result for aberdeen south does come at half 1, thats soon, its a belter really, last 4 elections went 2019 SNP, 2017 tory,2015 SNP,2010 labour
only gain scotland SNP
Douglas Ross Tory Scottish Leader loses Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
Douglas Ross Tory Scottish Leader loses Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
This is where the real excitement is, if Labour get two or more seats then drumard gets the hamper!
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK won 14 times more votes in Scotland than Alex Salmond’s Alba Party (165,045 v 11,784).
i believe we have a final result of labour 411 which makes fife who went for 406 the winner, congratulations fife.
Jun 17, 2024 -- 5:17PM, jollyswagman wrote:
that can be the tie breaker in the unlikely event of a draw @youhavetolaugh
I think strictly that Charlie is the winner as his entry was in first.
Thanks, do we both get a hamper? It came down to the last few seats and drumard could easily have won. I don't think there was a rule about posting first so happy to share with fife.
thanks for reminding me, my memory is terrible 
i did say in the event of a draw whoever posts first wins so charlie gets the whole hamper to himself
i did say in the event of a draw whoever posts first wins so charlie gets the whole hamper to himself
enjoy your virtual hamper charlie 
and the bragging rights
and the bragging rights
Thank you so very much, I've just set off virtual fireworks, been interviewed by the virtual BBC and about to shag two of the virtual politics groupies who have been awaiting the result with bated breasts .
.
Well done Charlie,handy out for virtual Henley tomorrow.
Most got it in the ballpark( a biggish one). Good fun.
Most got it in the ballpark( a biggish one). Good fun.
wisdom of crowds came into my head with to how we did
if my sums are right (8463/21) then we came in at 403
maybe a little low, maybe, but still pretty good
and it came out as a whole number too, which must make up for that
if my sums are right (8463/21) then we came in at 403
maybe a little low, maybe, but still pretty good
and it came out as a whole number too, which must make up for that
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