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jollyswagman
17 Jun 24 15:09
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Date Joined: 04 Jul 15
| Topic/replies: 11,910 | Blogger: jollyswagman's blog
you have until 10.00pm on 4 July to name the party you think will have most representation in parliament and state how many MPs they will get.

it is just a bit of harmless fun, sadly the loudest voices on here usually arent brave enough to take part. anyone who doesnt take part but aftertimes poor calls will feature on the aftertimers thread (i say this as my clueless guess is somewhat divergent to the polls Grin).

forum bragging rights and a hamper from fortnum and mason await the winner. good luck.

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Replies: 99
By:
jollyswagman
When: 17 Jun 24 15:10
Labour 365
By:
Lee Ho Fooks
When: 17 Jun 24 15:26
Labour 352
By:
A_T
When: 17 Jun 24 15:28
reform 1
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 17 Jun 24 15:40
Labour 420 seats
By:
yak hunt
When: 17 Jun 24 16:18
Labour 435
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 17 Jun 24 16:24
Unreal numbers
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 17 Jun 24 16:29
Should get bonus points for guessing 17 days in advance.

Labour 370
By:
yak hunt
When: 17 Jun 24 16:58
Should get bonus points for guessing 17 days in advance.

Definitely!
By:
jollyswagman
When: 17 Jun 24 17:17
that can be the tie breaker in the unlikely event of a draw @youhavetolaugh
By:
jollyswagman
When: 17 Jun 24 17:18
AT reform 1 seat means they arent the biggest party, please try again
By:
hologon
When: 17 Jun 24 17:44
Labour 405
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jun 24 18:47
this chap will 'win'


By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 18 Jun 24 13:46
Still Labour 370

Turnout 67%
By:
A_T
When: 18 Jun 24 14:27
labour 399
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 18 Jun 24 17:16
Still working through my spreadsheet, but will add something before 4/7
By:
jollyswagman
When: 23 Jun 24 18:03
so far all the participants have gone for labour

jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
ya**** 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399

if lfc doesnt reappear i will enter for him, either tory 600 or reform 600. anything's possible, i read it somewhere.
By:
xmoneyx
When: 23 Jun 24 18:06
not bothered about winning

reform 650
By:
Charlie
When: 23 Jun 24 18:13
Labour 406.
By:
----you-have-to-laugh---
When: 23 Jun 24 18:14
Reform only have 609 candidates

Lfc would be going for refuk 609

Anything is possible though.
By:
xmoneyx
When: 23 Jun 24 18:21
Reform only have 609 candidates

lost already Excited

I will give it a go

labour 320
By:
jollyswagman
When: 23 Jun 24 18:25
thank you xmoneyx and charlie

its a bit of harmless fun
By:
xmoneyx
When: 23 Jun 24 18:31
Nigel Farage

@Nigel_Farage

ELECTION INTERFERENCE ALERT

Today's Mail on Sunday claimed President Zelensky said that I was personally infected with Putinism. This is totally untrue and I have instructed Carter Ruck to deal with it.
By:
xmoneyx
When: 26 Jun 24 20:09
Scottish Westminster poll 10pm tonight

not that it matters WhoopsWink
By:
xmoneyx
When: 26 Jun 24 22:03
BBS +

EXCLUSIVE: New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Survation 21-25 Jun (changes vs 23-27 May):

Lab ~ 37% (+1)
SNP ~ 31% (-1)
Con ~ 14% (-3)
RUK ~ 8% (new)
LD ~ 7% (-2)
Grn ~ 3% (new)
Alba ~ 1% (+1)
By:
Cider
When: 26 Jun 24 22:15
Reform 8% in Jockland Shocked
By:
xmoneyx
When: 27 Jun 24 11:39
will be those who wanted Brexit
By:
xmoneyx
When: 29 Jun 24 08:22
survation final poll will be on tuesday
By:
xmoneyx
When: 29 Jun 24 10:22
new statesman latest poll on tory/refofm

tory - 90 seats
reform - 7 seats
By:
paulo47
When: 29 Jun 24 10:30
Yep both jollies 2.1 and 2.5 respectively .
By:
xmoneyx
When: 30 Jun 24 10:28
Wings Over Scotland

@WingsScotland

This is a pure gut feeling, based on ZERO serious analysis and just pulling numbers out of fresh air, but I reckon the election will pan out something like this.

Labour: 452
Tories: 114
Lib Dems: 48
SNP: 14
DUP: 8
Reform: 2
Green: 1
Others: 12
By:
lapsy pa
When: 30 Jun 24 11:24
Going into the spirit of it my guess is 393 Labour seats.

Northern Ireland,

Sinn Fein 8
DUP  6
Alliance 2
SDLP 2
By:
xmoneyx
When: 30 Jun 24 11:33
Britain Elects

@BritainElects

MODEL UPDATE | How would the UK vote if the election was held today?

LAB: 436 MPs (+236)
CON: 96 (-282)
LDEM: 68 (+60)
SNP: 23 (-25)
REF: 7 (+7)
GRN: 4 (+3)
PC: 3 (+1)

via Britain Predicts, 29 Jun
By:
Dotchinite
When: 30 Jun 24 14:27
Labour 500 MPs.
By:
jollyswagman
When: 30 Jun 24 17:55
thank you lapsy and dotchinite, i will update tomorrow.

feel free to enter everybody.
By:
xmoneyx
When: 01 Jul 24 06:38
YouGov

@YouGov
·
Jun 29

New YouGov Westminster voting intention (Scotland)*

Lab: 35%
SNP: 29%
Con: 11%
Lib Dem: 11%
Reform UK: 8%
Green: 5%

TORY WIPEOUT SCOTLAND
By:
jollyswagman
When: 01 Jul 24 13:53
so far everyone is predicting labour as the biggest party with the following number of MPs

jolly 365
LeeHoFooks 352
SirNorbertClarke 420
yak hunt 435
youhavetolaugh 370
hologon 405
AT 399
charlie 406
xmoneyx 320
lapsy pa 393
dotchinite 500
By:
Foinavon
When: 01 Jul 24 13:58
377 for me please.
By:
jollyswagman
When: 01 Jul 24 14:08
thank you foinavon, i presume that is labour?
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 01 Jul 24 14:18
I believe Tories will do better than expected, many Tory voters traditionally are ashamed of being Tory voters and so they tell pollsters untruths.  Also old people who are more likely to be Tories turnout to vote more than lazy 20somethings.
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