Liz Truss; how bad will things get

Will she deliver her £50bn of tax cuts? No. Pure flannel to the members but she'll have been advised about the costs of this both to public services and to the wider electorate, most of who won't see any benefit from it.

Will she protect the needy through this winter? There'll be a minor cut that will be next to nothing but will be there as a "look, I did my bit"

Will her cabinet be as intellectually challenged as Johnson's? Even worse. The further the tories keep digging and demanding loyalty as the main requirement the weaker the cabinet becomes.

Will inflation really hit 18% or will it be higher? Key is probably outside of her control really. All based on gas and the war. We're praying that Biden's arms allow Ukraine to repel Russia and Germany sort their power out. Long term we clearly need to be less reliant on gas.

How long will the recession be? Technically, 9 months. There'll be a bounce back but like post-covid we'll still be worse off than before.

Will we see mass bankruptcies of people as well as small businesses? Yep, small businesses are going to the wall in their droves this winter.

Will her NI protocol Bill trigger a trade war with the EU? Very good chance. Tories only hope of staying in is their tried and trusted plan of engineering a situation where they can blame someone else. Keeping the brexit fires lit will also help them.

Will the NHS suffer its worst ever winter crisis? It's just going to keep getting worse till we can change government and get someone in with a plan to retain staff and invest in the right areas.

Will half the country end up on strike? Possibly. All those companies who hid behind "well, that's the inflation rate" for their 2.5% rises are suddenly feeling uncomfortable and the low paid are going to genuinely struggle to get by. They have little power beyond denying their labour.

Will she deliver her £50bn of tax cuts?
No. We will continue to pay more and more as the state gets bigger and bigger.

Will she protect the needy through this winter?
People need to take responsibility for themselves. Extra jumpers. Tape up windows etc. No more teeshirts with heating on full blast with window open.

Will her cabinet be as intellectually challenged as Johnson's?
With Gove, Hancock, Sunak and other big state advocates gone it surely cannot be worse.

Will inflation really hit 18% or will it be higher?
Depends if Bank of England does its job and puts up interest rates. Need to stop protecting those who borrowed beyond their means without calculating that interest rates can go to 10% or 20% and plan for it. If the BOE doesnt hyperinflation could follow.

How long will the recession be?
No idea.

Will we see mass bankruptcies of people as well as small businesses?
Yes

Will her NI protocol Bill trigger a trade war with the EU?
Yes if the EU wants an excuse to punish the UK for leaving

Will the NHS suffer its worst ever winter crisis?
People have to understand the NHS is broken beyond repair. Treatments stopped during the 'pandemic' and we will never catch up. Regular consultant appointments for heart patients etc have NEVER restarted and I dont think they ever will. Long term legacy of the Covid shutdown will be a decline in life expectancy.

Will half the country end up on strike?
Maybe because people have been so pampered during Covid they expect the government to bail them out. If supermarket staff and food distributors go on strike we are all in trouble.

It is worth mentioning here government debt interest payments. If I understand correctly the interest payments on a considerable amount of government debt is subject to change as the retail price index changes. This means recent interest payments have been increasing rapidly as inflation increases. That means more money has to be found from somewhere to meet these increasing interest payments - to my mind ideally not from more borrowing.

This has to be one big reason for trying to curb inflation figures. If it continues rising then these debt payments can only get much worse. Perhaps somebody with relevant knowledge could come up with some debt interest payment numbers. Perhaps they could compare these amounts to the amounts spent at the same time in other areas of government spending.

Will her cabinet be as intellectually challenged as Johnson's?

This is ridiculous thinking, of course they're not intellectually challenged.
You don't want intellectuals with their heads in the clouds anyway. The left is awash with intellectuals.
They’re the problem. They live in a different world.

That’s why we are were we are now.

That's quite true GD and you can add to that the Bank's bond portfolio bought during QE which will be sold at a loss as interest rates rise or when they reach maturity.

Now Liz, our current Foreign Secretary, doesn't know if France is a friend or an enemy!

How many countries does the she want us to fall out with so she can get a few claps from the Little Englanders in her party?



She might also want to remember, going into this Russian winter, that France supplies the UK with electricity

Truss is utterly dense.

None of them are dense.
They simply pursue what is best for their own careers and to get themselves elected.
We’d do the same if we were MPs.
We wouldn’t get very far if we didn't.

I agree with Facts except I think he is being a bit hard on the averagely dense.

Dense, is not realising what they're up to.

She doesn't know where France is, probably thinks it's East of Belfast.

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She’ll be fine as long as she gets back to conservative values and stops giving the workshy and the lazy free handouts, and crushes the cancerous unions.

She would also do well to address the problem of so many stupid left wing activists in the education system, replacing them with teachers who actually teach the kids properly instead of poisoning their minds with lefty BS.

I have zero faith in her in most of the questions.

The NIP?
The people of NI aren't getting their £400 anytime soon due to administration.
Enough to trigger article 16 if things worsen?
It isn't because it is a false situation with the Torys/ERG/DUP and the shot callers the loyalist terrorists all in the same bed trying to cling on to the pathetic union.

Wrong again lapsy.
Getting a habit.

Where am i wrong? a pathetic voiceless union where Westminster makes the rules to suit themselves?
The Dup being briefed by loyalist terrorists and the torys/erg playing their game?

Belt away Einstein,explain yourself.

The Dup being briefed by terrorists

Are you suggesting that the DUP are listening to Sinn Fein?

Are you suggesting that Arlene(ex),Jeff are not reporting back to the UVF in particular?

We all know.

Man in the know

Why are the torys/erg in collusion with them?

This is why i am saying to 'protect' your pathetic union,this is the depth you are stooping to.

You cannot argue coherently,only silly one liners,a typical cap doffing forelock tugger,

Is this better?
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She's easy on the eye.
I'd rather ook at her than watch the billianaire, or the rabbit in the headlights called Starmer.

None of them will do what's necessary so I'll go for her.

Not raging at all,disappointed you cannot make a point really.
For someone who is 'supposed' to care about the union you don't give a sheet about its people,you are a fraud.

Dr you need to see a doctor if you think Truss is easy o the eye.

It's more than a GP you will need.

She is a major shift storm waiting to happen.

She's just a gift to the opposition simple as that.

Truss will bankrupt the country if her answer to increasing gas prices is to subsidize gas prices with tax payer's money.


The only solution is to nationalise UK gas fields and sell that gas to UK customers at today's prices.

I predict a riot.

let's all freeze together in portugal playing golf this winter

You joke scarecrow but I can guarantee that golf complexes in Portugal & Spain will have been inundated with enquiries from all over Northern Europe.

I've spent a few winters in the Algarve and with a VPN and a fibre connection it's very enjoyable.

Aug 27, 2022 -- 10:14PM, SirNorbertClarke wrote:

Truss will bankrupt the country if her answer to increasing gas prices is to subsidize gas prices with tax payer's money.The only solution is to nationalise UK gas fields and sell that gas to UK customers at today's prices.

Completely detached from reality

White riot

Completely passed me by tbf, but we're currently producing loads of gas here but selling it abroad simply because the private company (Centrica) didn't want to invest in keeping the storage facilities open and the tories just said fine and let them go.

Don't know if people need a starker lesson in the dangers of privatisation and the tories but there you go.

How very 70s SNC.........Portugal and the Med' ,a little  timeshare Norbert ?.
Many visit the Med' and it inspires them to want see Africa/Asia and South America etc.
I could see an analogy there somewhere but I think it is quaint to revisit Portugal ,well done you.

I rent in Portugal. Beautiful weather over winter, Food and drink dirt cheap, Car hire too.

They reckon around 25% of the money in the Algarve is British money. Germans catching up fast.

Been there SNC xmas time ,gorgeous......though Albufeira was a s'hole.
It is a "stereotype" though chap.
16.8 million voted remain
60%+ were simply influenced by left wing media (my own Mother voted remain ,that nice Mr Lineker said etc) and succumbed to the scaremongering  ,no medicines ,no food ,we can't survive alone etc
10%+ worked for multinationals ,so remain was "corporate speak"
10%+ were simple self interest ,timeshares ,winters abroad ,aunty lives in Hanover etc
Many couldn't bare the thought of the UK being self governed by Tories and apparently many remainers were so committed ,they couldn't even get up to vote.
My own view is that many Tory remainers just liked the cheap labour ,you know gardener lives in the mower shed and I give him a score a week and some dog food.
The biggest surprise to me though was only very few thought the EU ,was well run ,ideologically correct ,or actually any good.
Superbok is still the worst lager I have ever drank though Norbert

You might not like the way the EU is run but it is run a darn sight better than the UK.

I gave up drinking beer decades ago, just Rosé nowadays.

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How bad can things get? Well Liz could turn out to be as clueless as Boris

Sticking Truss in a uniform of war awith that headline... jesus wept

spot on lapsy

Liz Truss cancels BBC interview with Nick Robinson

Liz Truss has pulled out of a BBC One interview with Nick Robinson that was due to air on Tuesday evening.

Ms Truss' team said she could no longer spare the time for the one-on-one programme, the BBC said in a statement.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62715983

probably wise

Tories are forever running away from scrutiny these days as virtually every day on the Newsnight Programme they decline invitations.

Truss is rapidly turning into Johnson. She'll be hiding in fridges next!

Where's lizzie

The EU passed powers this morning to impose retaliatory trade sanctions re Truss's Protocol bill.

This will not be pretty for the UK if it breaks their agreement.

Who will be pulling her strings…. The ERG?

Of course.Game is up though.
The language was harsh from a few MEPs and can't blame them as they are in the right.

Liz got the lefties rattled.

has she got the time to go to balmoral next week ?

Liz got the lefties rattled

Do you really think anyone on the left of British politics is rattled by the thought of Liz Truss starting a trade war with the EU just as we are entering a recession with inflation at 18%?

It's a f**kin' gift to Starmer

She's certainly got you in a tizzy Nobby.

10-year borrowing costs for UK set for biggest monthly rise since 1986

Heaping pressure on incoming prime minister, 10-year monthly government bond yields shot up to 2.78%

Fears over the British economy falling into a long recession and the likelihood of higher public spending to cope with the cost of living crisis has sent the interest rate on Britain’s debts soaring towards its biggest monthly rise in almost 40 years.

Ten-year UK government bond yields, which are a proxy for the effective interest rate on public borrowing – were on course on Wednesday for the biggest monthly rise since September 1986 after an increase to 2.78%.

Heaping pressure on the incoming prime minister to address the Treasury’s worsening financial outlook, some analysts predicted the yield would increase before the end of the year to at least 3%.

It comes as Rishi Sunak warned there were growing risks of financial markets losing faith in the British economy amid soaring inflation and elevated levels of government debt, in an attack on his Conservative leadership rival Liz Truss’s tax and spending plans.

About a third of the UK’s total borrowings have an interest rate linked to inflation, making them more expensive to finance in a period of rising prices.

Truss, the frontrunner in the race to succeed Boris Johnson, has been criticised by opposition parties for proposing £50bn worth of tax cuts that will boost the incomes of rich and poor households and profitable companies over the next year.

Sunak said he “struggled to see” how sweeping tax cuts to support families with the cost of living crisis “add up”. Using an interview in the Financial Times, he warned it would be “complacent and irresponsible” to ignore the risk of losing financial market confidence in Britain.

“We have more inflation-linked debt by a margin than any other G7 economy –– basically more than double,” he said.

The pressure on the government’s borrowing position comes as European and US bonds have also suffered increases in yields, with the 10-year US Treasury bond already at 3.11%.

However, while this increase in Washington’s borrowing costs has failed to dent confidence in the longer term prospects for the world’s largest economy, keeping the value of the dollar near record highs, the pound has fallen sharply to levels seen after the Brexit vote six years ago.

Sterling has dropped 5% versus the dollar to $1.20 and 3% against the euro this month in response to clear signs that Britain’s economy will suffer more than rival industrialised nations coping with soaring gas and electricity prices and weakening private sector activity.

The prospect of a rise in borrowing costs when Bank of England policymakers meet to set interest rates in September, even as the economy enters a prolonged recession, has also contributed to sterling having its worst month since late 2016 against the dollar and its worst versus the euro since mid-2021.

Speeches by central bankers at the annual Jackson Hole conference in the US last week stoked concerns among financial market investors that interest rates would need to rise further to quell inflationary pressures, despite forecasts of a recession in most developed economies.

Azad Zangana, a senior European economist at the investment manager Schroders, said: “A definitive regime shift has occurred, taking us into a new era. More seasoned investors may see this as a return to more normal times, akin to the period before the global financial crisis in 2008.

“However, that is yet to be seen. It could be that the stagflation – a period of persistently high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand – experienced in the late 1970s and early 1980s may be the more appropriate comparison.”

Financial markets are pricing in a 40% probability that the Bank will raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage points to 2.5% at its meeting next month, which would be its largest single rise in borrowing costs since 1989. Investors expect rates could reach 4.25% by the middle of next year.

British consumer price inflation hit 10.1% for the first time in 40 years in July, and the Bank forecast it would exceed 13% in October, when regulated household energy prices are due to rise by 80%.

Goldman Sachs forecast on Monday that British inflation could reach 22% early next year, if natural gas prices hold near current levels. The Bank and many other forecasters expect higher inflation will push Britain’s economy into a lengthy recession later this year.

An assessment by the Office for National Statistics of the impact on inflation from government energy bill rebates for households found they could not be viewed as lowering inflation.

Analysts at Bloomberg had estimated that a verdict to decrease inflation would have saved the UK government as much as £14bn from the cost of financing index-linked government bonds.

Labour have a double digit polling lead. If this continues, the tories will be completely wiped out at the next General election.

The problem is they won't dare call an election before the time is up.

The problem is the lack of faith is causing us to
raise interest rates when we should be cutting them
as demand is stifled by fuel prices sucking money
out of circulation.

A temp vat cut may cause folk with savings
to bring forward purchases, but the threat of
inflation should have already encouraged some of
that spending!



A Government cap on energy prices for consumers and  then picking
up the excess directly from suppliers would seem
to be best way forward.

Energy companies are expecting £180billion of
extra profit from energy spike.

Government can collect that to cover costs.

They'll have to borrow more and more each month just to make the interest payment.

Tis getting very gloomy.

As predicted.

She's certainly got you in a tizzy Nobby.

You think so?

I live on a fat gold plated index linked pension and I don't pay any utility bills. Nothing gets me in a tizzy.

The "benefits" of a tax haven is that uk gets
nowt of the cash funneled into tax havens.

It comes as Rishi Sunak warned there were growing risks of financial markets losing faith in the British economy

The game is just about up. The family silver was sold decades ago, there's a trade war with the EU coming, inflation is way out of control and the incoming PM is a complete idiot.

Of course the financial markets are losing faith.

A very sobering post @ 2.34pm.

Yes PD,somewhere roughly between £10 and 20 billion a month currently

What can be the way out?

Liz Truss to appoint Rees Mogg in charge of Business,energy and industrial strategies?

Workers rights probably in trouble in a few months?

The torys are wrecking the UK,small consolation they are wrecking their party as well.

That would be great!

Finally the cap doffers and forelock tuggers might just see The Eton Rifles are not as smart as they think and they are selfish self servers.

He will seek confrontation and get it in spades. Great call, probably no one better!

I think it could well be true WD,whispers.

It ties in with ERG as well.

Pitbull - Timber ft. Truss

Tory boys gone missing from this thread.

What have the high energy prices got to do with the Tories ?
Yes the country is in a bad spot , but so are plenty of others.

Johnny The Guesser 31 Aug 22 18:45 
What have the high energy prices got to do with the Tories ?
Yes the country is in a bad spot , but so are plenty of others.


It comes as Rishi Sunak warned there were growing risks of financial markets losing faith in the British economy amid soaring inflation and elevated levels of government debt, in an attack on his Conservative leadership rival Liz Truss’s tax and spending plans.

About a third of the UK’s total borrowings have an interest rate linked to inflation, making them more expensive to finance in a period of rising prices.

Truss, the frontrunner in the race to succeed Boris Johnson, has been criticised by opposition parties for proposing £50bn worth of tax cuts that will boost the incomes of rich and poor households and profitable companies over the next year.

EU are going to present a united front to Russia, and possibly cap energy prices over the winter.

Isolating Liz Truss and the UK as the hostage of market forces.

Bring it on.

You have not answered my question.
You seem to think that by quoting the opinion of Sunak , and a criticism from Labour , who will criticise everything proposed by the Government somehow proves something ?
Yes - the point about the Government bonds being linked to inflation is interesting , but who are you trying to blame for that ? Bonds have been issued like that for decades.

"Soaring inflation" - have a word with Vlad about his games with the gas supply.

"Elevated levels of Government debt" - it was Rishi himself that spent £100s of billions.

Everybody is screaming out for even more Government debt  for energy subsidies - So what now ? - Energy subsidies and elevated debt levels or no no energy subsidies and lower debts ?

sparrow why don't you answer jtgs question plus this supplementary.
DSo you think the high energy prices throughout Europe are the Tories fault?

What have the high energy prices got to do with the Tories ?

Yeah, Johnny they've washed their hands whilst worries mount
for coming winter. Even Labour have a plan.

Doubtless the new PM will find a plan to mitigate
the tory cost of living crisis.

Liz Truss sold our gas storage.

Liz Truss wants to sell more of our sea beds to
oil companies and gas companies so they can fleece us.

Labour's plan involved borrowing money to subsidise energy bills over one winter. - It's hardly 'solving' anything by sticking in on the "elevated debt pile".

Labour have a plan. That is the difference.

Johnny The Guesser Joined: 15 Apr 02
Replies: 467231 Aug 22 19:02 
You have not answered my question.




Sorry but I thought the Tories were the governing party and if so I refer you to my answer at 1848.



It comes as Rishi Sunak warned there were growing risks of financial markets losing faith in the British economy amid soaring inflation and elevated levels of government debt, in an attack on his Conservative leadership rival Liz Truss’s tax and spending plans.

About a third of the UK’s total borrowings have an interest rate linked to inflation, making them more expensive to finance in a period of rising prices.

Truss, the frontrunner in the race to succeed Boris Johnson, has been criticised by opposition parties for proposing £50bn worth of tax cuts that will boost the incomes of rich and poor households and profitable companies over the next year.

Is this plan of licensing companies to extract gas/oil limited to just the UK?

How are the EU going to cap energy prices over the winter  UB ?

Who is paying the difference between the true market rate and the subsidised bill ?

Liz Truss was a tory when she sold our gas storage, btw

You really can't expect us to accept that energy prices are not a matter for the British government.

So to sum up your well thought out argument Sparrow..

The Tories are the governing party in the UK. So they are to blame for the high energy prices in the UK even though these high energy prices exist all over Europe.

For goodness sake the current debate in the governing party is how they are going to ease the burden for the people and business. And people on here pretend its nothing to do with the government.

No johnny your question was as follows.............Johnny The Guesser 31 Aug 22 18:45
What have the high energy prices got to do with the Tories ?





And my reply was above.

So you agree the Tories haven't caused the problem Sparrow, it's the slow response to the problem that irks you ?

Why didn't you post that ?

Johnny you are just playing games now. You ask one question and then claim something different when the answer doesn't suit you.


I repeat again......

For goodness sake the current debate in the governing party is how they are going to ease the burden for the people and business. And people on here pretend its nothing to do with the government.

sparrow
You really can't expect us to accept that energy prices are not a matter for the British government.

Changing your tune after you thought it through.
Glad you now accept that high energy prices in the UK and throughout Europe are not the fault of the UK government.

Johnny The Guesser 31 Aug 22 18:45
What have the high energy prices got to do with the Tories




Oh absolutely none of their business.  Happy now johnny....

akabula and johnny you really are a pair of jokers.

The response to the high energy prices is absolutely down to the Tories.

We can agree on that.

Labour have a plan. That is the difference.

I wonder if its a cunning plan. Once Truss is installed as PM the whole picture will change.

Johnny just pulls out another strawman everytime he makes
a fool of himself

So well named.

Quite unreal posts,whose fault is the 2.34pm post down to? Everyone has/had the same problems with covid/energy,now the tide is going out,you can see how different govs handled them.

Simple as this,surely you have to agree that everyone had the same problems,if you two want to say you had brexit as well,i'd say ok.

Glad you now accept that high energy prices in the UK and throughout Europe are not the fault of the UK government.




When did I say that high energy prices was the fault of Britain?

The UK has plenty of gas and the UK government can regulate where that gas goes to. Just like Russia, Saudi, Qatar & Kuwait do. Those put their countries interest first second and third.

This is an economic catastrophe and Liz Truss is looking to the 1980s for the answer.

Aug 31, 2022 -- 7:09PM, Johnny The Guesser wrote:

How are the EU going to cap energy prices over the winter

Tbh, this platform has become so erratic, many have given up on it.

To persevere, Johnny: Long term solution for the EU is to untie itself from Russian gas. Short term solution is to share stocks between its 27 countries and agree to pay Russia a certain price for what it needs extra. Taking back control of the bargain.

This is not set in concrete until the 27 meet in 9 days time but an example of what can done by working together rather than in isolation like Billy-no-mates-Britain.

I'm sure Mr Soros has an opinion too, as I've been saying for two years.

UB - You are muddling the supply of gas with the price paid for the gas supplied.

OK - the EU untie themselves from Russian gas (like the UK have already done btw) - OK fair enough , but how does that reduce the price paid for the gas they obtain from elsewhere ? If anything it would push the price of non-Russian case higher.

Then ask Vlad for a special price for the extra needed - Really ?? - Is that the grand plan ? - Good luck with that.

Imagine if Lizzie's plan was - "I'm going to tell Putin we are only paying a certain price for his gas" - She would be laughed out of office.

Germany is fooked

Stop trying to claim europe is miles ahead and going to be fine because they wont be and once Russia cuts it off theyre fooked