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SirNorbertClarke
25 Aug 22 23:18
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Date Joined: 11 Aug 21
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Forget the past, look to the future; how bad do you think things will get?

Will she deliver her £50bn of tax cuts?
Will she protect the needy through this winter?
Will her cabinet be as intellectually challenged as Johnson's?
Will inflation really hit 18% or will it be higher?
How long will the recession be?
Will we see mass bankruptcies of people as well as small businesses?
Will her NI protocol Bill trigger a trade war with the EU?
Will the NHS suffer its worst ever winter crisis?
Will half the country end up on strike?

Your predictions please.

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Replies: 103
By:
glasshouses dogman
When: 26 Aug 22 00:06
How many small businesses will go under? Many are struggling with inflationary pressures. Some are now looking at very large increases in their energy costs which will be the end for some. A shop I often I go to has just closed - perhaps one of many to come.

Liz Truss has to my knowledge has not spoke about the problems many small businesses are facing in the coming months. There is no price cap on their energy costs unlike for domestic customers. I have read about some businesses facing closure. For example a fish and chip shop in Scotland which has traded for over 40 years will close soon as it would face unsustainable price increases for the energy it uses at the start of September.

I think I have read that over 1,000,000 small businesses have 9 or less staff. Where some close there will be increases in unemployment numbers which will be a cost increase for the government.

Liz should remember that many of the owners of these businesses wilol be regular Tory voters. What will some  think about when we get to the next election and some have had to close businesses that perhaps in some cases they had spent a lifetime building up?

There can be no easy answers. If the situation in the Ukraine was to be resolved soon and Russia started upping the gas it exports then things could be more easy to deal with. However, that looks unlikely. So Liz what sort of solution, if any, can you come up with to reduce the threat of many small businesses closing?
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 26 Aug 22 09:15
New price cap to take effect from October has just been announced as £3,549.

And Ofgem chief Jonathan Brearley says “it’s clear the new Prime Minister will need to act further”.
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 26 Aug 22 09:26
That's means the average house will have a monthly DD of £298.75



I just had a look on Cinch and you could  get a very nice Mercedes for that a month LaughLaugh
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 26 Aug 22 09:27
Will she deliver her £50bn of tax cuts? No. Pure flannel to the members but she'll have been advised about the costs of this both to public services and to the wider electorate, most of who won't see any benefit from it.

Will she protect the needy through this winter? There'll be a minor cut that will be next to nothing but will be there as a "look, I did my bit"

Will her cabinet be as intellectually challenged as Johnson's? Even worse. The further the tories keep digging and demanding loyalty as the main requirement the weaker the cabinet becomes.

Will inflation really hit 18% or will it be higher? Key is probably outside of her control really. All based on gas and the war. We're praying that Biden's arms allow Ukraine to repel Russia and Germany sort their power out. Long term we clearly need to be less reliant on gas.

How long will the recession be? Technically, 9 months. There'll be a bounce back but like post-covid we'll still be worse off than before.

Will we see mass bankruptcies of people as well as small businesses? Yep, small businesses are going to the wall in their droves this winter.

Will her NI protocol Bill trigger a trade war with the EU? Very good chance. Tories only hope of staying in is their tried and trusted plan of engineering a situation where they can blame someone else. Keeping the brexit fires lit will also help them.

Will the NHS suffer its worst ever winter crisis? It's just going to keep getting worse till we can change government and get someone in with a plan to retain staff and invest in the right areas.

Will half the country end up on strike? Possibly. All those companies who hid behind "well, that's the inflation rate" for their 2.5% rises are suddenly feeling uncomfortable and the low paid are going to genuinely struggle to get by. They have little power beyond denying their labour.
By:
frog1000
When: 26 Aug 22 09:54
Will she deliver her £50bn of tax cuts?
No. We will continue to pay more and more as the state gets bigger and bigger.

Will she protect the needy through this winter?
People need to take responsibility for themselves. Extra jumpers. Tape up windows etc. No more teeshirts with heating on full blast with window open.

Will her cabinet be as intellectually challenged as Johnson's?
With Gove, Hancock, Sunak and other big state advocates gone it surely cannot be worse.

Will inflation really hit 18% or will it be higher?
Depends if Bank of England does its job and puts up interest rates. Need to stop protecting those who borrowed beyond their means without calculating that interest rates can go to 10% or 20% and plan for it. If the BOE doesnt hyperinflation could follow.

How long will the recession be?
No idea.

Will we see mass bankruptcies of people as well as small businesses?
Yes

Will her NI protocol Bill trigger a trade war with the EU?
Yes if the EU wants an excuse to punish the UK for leaving

Will the NHS suffer its worst ever winter crisis?
People have to understand the NHS is broken beyond repair. Treatments stopped during the 'pandemic' and we will never catch up. Regular consultant appointments for heart patients etc have NEVER restarted and I dont think they ever will. Long term legacy of the Covid shutdown will be a decline in life expectancy.

Will half the country end up on strike?
Maybe because people have been so pampered during Covid they expect the government to bail them out. If supermarket staff and food distributors go on strike we are all in trouble.
By:
glasshouses dogman
When: 26 Aug 22 10:22
It is worth mentioning here government debt interest payments. If I understand correctly the interest payments on a considerable amount of government debt is subject to change as the retail price index changes. This means recent interest payments have been increasing rapidly as inflation increases. That means more money has to be found from somewhere to meet these increasing interest payments - to my mind ideally not from more borrowing.

This has to be one big reason for trying to curb inflation figures. If it continues rising then these debt payments can only get much worse. Perhaps somebody with relevant knowledge could come up with some debt interest payment numbers. Perhaps they could compare these amounts to the amounts spent at the same time in other areas of government spending.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 26 Aug 22 10:37
Will her cabinet be as intellectually challenged as Johnson's?

This is ridiculous thinking, of course they're not intellectually challenged.
You don't want intellectuals with their heads in the clouds anyway. The left is awash with intellectuals.
They’re the problem. They live in a different world.

That’s why we are were we are now.
By:
Foinavon
When: 26 Aug 22 11:31
That's quite true GD and you can add to that the Bank's bond portfolio bought during QE which will be sold at a loss as interest rates rise or when they reach maturity.
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 26 Aug 22 12:29
Now Liz, our current Foreign Secretary, doesn't know if France is a friend or an enemy!

How many countries does the she want us to fall out with so she can get a few claps from the Little Englanders in her party?



She might also want to remember, going into this Russian winter, that France supplies the UK with electricity Cry
By:
Facts
When: 27 Aug 22 09:17
Truss is utterly dense.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 27 Aug 22 10:32
None of them are dense.
They simply pursue what is best for their own careers and to get themselves elected.
We’d do the same if we were MPs.
We wouldn’t get very far if we didn't.
By:
salmon spray
When: 27 Aug 22 10:34
I agree with Facts except I think he is being a bit hard on the averagely dense.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 27 Aug 22 10:47
Dense, is not realising what they're up to.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 27 Aug 22 15:00
She doesn't know where France is, probably thinks it's East of Belfast.
By:
sparrow
When: 27 Aug 22 15:28
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By:
Torquemada
When: 27 Aug 22 15:51
She’ll be fine as long as she gets back to conservative values and stops giving the workshy and the lazy free handouts, and crushes the cancerous unions.
By:
Torquemada
When: 27 Aug 22 15:55
She would also do well to address the problem of so many stupid left wing activists in the education system, replacing them with teachers who actually teach the kids properly instead of poisoning their minds with lefty BS.
By:
lapsy pa
When: 27 Aug 22 19:49
I have zero faith in her in most of the questions.

The NIP?
The people of NI aren't getting their £400 anytime soon due to administration.
Enough to trigger article 16 if things worsen?
It isn't because it is a false situation with the Torys/ERG/DUP and the shot callers the loyalist terrorists all in the same bed trying to cling on to the pathetic union.
By:
akabula
When: 27 Aug 22 20:01
Wrong again lapsy.
Getting a habit.
By:
lapsy pa
When: 27 Aug 22 20:04
Where am i wrong? a pathetic voiceless union where Westminster makes the rules to suit themselves?
The Dup being briefed by loyalist terrorists and the torys/erg playing their game?

Belt away Einstein,explain yourself.
By:
akabula
When: 27 Aug 22 20:18
The Dup being briefed by terrorists

Are you suggesting that the DUP are listening to Sinn Fein?
By:
lapsy pa
When: 27 Aug 22 20:20
Are you suggesting that Arlene(ex),Jeff are not reporting back to the UVF in particular?

We all know.
By:
akabula
When: 27 Aug 22 20:23
Man in the know Laugh
By:
lapsy pa
When: 27 Aug 22 20:25
Why are the torys/erg in collusion with them?
By:
lapsy pa
When: 27 Aug 22 20:27
This is why i am saying to 'protect' your pathetic union,this is the depth you are stooping to.

You cannot argue coherently,only silly one liners,a typical cap doffing forelock tugger,
By:
akabula
When: 27 Aug 22 20:31
Is this better? Laugh
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By:
Dr Crippen
When: 27 Aug 22 20:43
She's easy on the eye.
I'd rather ook at her than watch the billianaire, or the rabbit in the headlights called Starmer.

None of them will do what's necessary so I'll go for her.
By:
lapsy pa
When: 27 Aug 22 20:51
Not raging at all,disappointed you cannot make a point really.
For someone who is 'supposed' to care about the union you don't give a sheet about its people,you are a fraud.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 27 Aug 22 21:29
Dr you need to see a doctor if you think Truss is easy o the eye.

It's more than a GP you will need.
By:
peckerdunne
When: 27 Aug 22 21:30
She is a major shift storm waiting to happen.
By:
sparrow
When: 27 Aug 22 21:48
She's just a gift to the opposition simple as that.
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 27 Aug 22 22:14
Truss will bankrupt the country if her answer to increasing gas prices is to subsidize gas prices with tax payer's money.


The only solution is to nationalise UK gas fields and sell that gas to UK customers at today's prices.
By:
DancingBraveTheBest
When: 28 Aug 22 00:14
I predict a riot.
By:
scarecrow
When: 28 Aug 22 00:54
let's all freeze together in portugal playing golf this winter LaughLaugh
By:
SirNorbertClarke
When: 28 Aug 22 09:31
You joke scarecrow but I can guarantee that golf complexes in Portugal & Spain will have been inundated with enquiries from all over Northern Europe.

I've spent a few winters in the Algarve and with a VPN and a fibre connection it's very enjoyable.
By:
Timber
When: 28 Aug 22 09:36

Aug 27, 2022 -- 10:14PM, SirNorbertClarke wrote:


Truss will bankrupt the country if her answer to increasing gas prices is to subsidize gas prices with tax payer's money.The only solution is to nationalise UK gas fields and sell that gas to UK customers at today's prices.


LaughLaughLaugh

Completely detached from reality

By:
Whisperingdeath
When: 28 Aug 22 10:17
White riot
By:
PorcupineorPineapple
When: 28 Aug 22 10:34
Completely passed me by tbf, but we're currently producing loads of gas here but selling it abroad simply because the private company (Centrica) didn't want to invest in keeping the storage facilities open and the tories just said fine and let them go.

Don't know if people need a starker lesson in the dangers of privatisation and the tories but there you go.
By:
flat16
When: 28 Aug 22 10:57
How very 70s SNC.........Portugal and the Med' ,a little  timeshare Norbert ?.
Many visit the Med' and it inspires them to want see Africa/Asia and South America etc.
I could see an analogy there somewhere but I think it is quaint to revisit Portugal ,well done you.
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