North Shropshire by election

1st friday night during the pandemic when there wont be a party in downing st

JESUS.MARY AND JOSEPH TIME FOR THE DONKEY TO GO

When you parachute a dual-heritage metropolitan doctor into a rural constituency ...

This is what happens when you let a good man like Patterson go Boris
Bring Cummings back !

Patterson was a good man, agreed, 71. The Somerset Levels are in better nick now largely thanks to him

This is what happens when you let a good man like Patterson go Boris


that affair, and the rest of Johnson's lying, twisting and u-turns is the reason for this result. He won't resign and I can't see anyone challenging him while Covid is still rampant.

Oh dear, politicspunter does his dough again. Not enough graduates in this seat

It's a pity for him you can no longer edit your chat name.

Good man like Patterson hilarious,Starmer sent Dodds Rayner and other mps up to try and let the tories win and couldn't even do that in a seat thats been tory held for 200 years..What a chump.

Lol, Paterson would be lucky to make top 6 in
the by election.

racism kicks in within hours of the crushing defeat.


Tory candidate, like Johnson thought campaigning in
da fridge was all he needed.

Lib dems woke up the electorate with local and national
issues,





Lesson learnt...

Senior Tory backbencher John Redwood says he doesn't think Boris Johnson is the main reason for the Tories' defeat, adding "he's always been the man who can attract votes and appeal very widely".

Lol..

Conservative co-chairman Oliver Dowden says voters were fed up and wanted to give the party a kicking.

"We've heard that message loud and clear."


Clearly havnt quite taken it in!




Biggest surprise for me is greens beating refuk and
Lib dems still winning without those votes.

“The daily papers might as well be an advent calendar of Tory Covid party scandals at the moment”

Helen Morgan says the people who voted for her believe "our politics should be about creating a better country for us all, not a nightly soap-opera of calamity and chaos".

A bad result over all for me. Managed to win a little on the side markets but that didn't make up for the loss on the main one. Well done to all winners.

I traded a nice position and bailed out of market.

Tis pity, as its not that often you get to
lay a dozen odds on shots in a 2 horse race.

Hey ho

Was like a slow motion T20 meerkat!

The normal rules of engagement simply didn't apply in this. By elections are odd enough anyway, throw in removal of liberties, parties, ignorance of the rules, lack of border control, sleaze and there was zero motivation to vote for the Tory party. I told my MP the same, if they don't reverse this nonsense, they are finished.

GB NEWS

Exit poll from North Shropshire

Conservative 37%
Labour 29%
Lib Dems 19%
Green 8%
RefUK 1%
Reclaim 0%
UKIP 0%
Others 5%

Turnout: ~39%

Predicted CON HOLD

(Stats: Ipsos-May/Darp 16/12/21)

GB NEWS

This is the first ever by-election exit poll in UK election history. Our team of interns and work experience students have absolutely pulled it out of the bag today. We’re always looking for more hands if you’re interested 

Maybe that poll explains the surge in tory bets.

It's badly wrong, but I guess lots of folk stayed
away, and only those with stronger opinions voted.

There were different strong opinions in 2019

Back checking result of exit poll via 2019
result would have been a nightmare error.

Daniel Kawczynski my MP should be up next,another vile corrupt tory mp..

guido fawkes

** STAY TUNED **

We've stood up that rumour that everyone has been chasing..

Cabinet Secretary’s Office Hosted Christmas Parties Last December

Patterson was a good man

That is apart from using his position as MP to feather his own nest, a clear act of scandalous corruption that he had to pay for even though the odious and corrupt Tory Government tried to change the rules to somehow save his wicked arrse.

Yes a fine specimen aside from the fact that he was caught utterly with his nasty hands in the public till.

Simon Case is due to report on his investigation into the Downing Street parties imminently. His own office's hosting of parties last December makes the situation farcical

Dec 17, 2021 -- 12:04PM, xmoneyx wrote:

GB NEWSExit poll from North Shropshire Conservative 37%Labour 29%Lib Dems 19%Green 8%RefUK 1%Reclaim 0%UKIP 0%Others 5%Turnout: ~39%Predicted CON HOLD(Stats: Ipsos-May/Darp 16/12/21)

That is truly bizarre! They must have drawn the numbers out of a lucky bag.

GBnews would appear to rival this Tory government for dissemination of drivel.

PM drinking in last chance saloon - former Scottish Tory leader

Former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson says Boris Johnson is "drinking in the last chance saloon" after the by-election result.

The Tory peer tells BBC Radio 4's World at One there's been a "general lack of grip" and MPs were looking for a PM who had "less of the drama".

She also says she feels for the Conservative candidate, who she says taken "an almighty kicking" because of events that were outside of his control.

The Tory peer says Dr Neil Shastri-Hurst, who got 12,032 votes, is an "immensely qualified and competent individual" - a former army medic, surgeon and barrister.

"I hope he's not left to carry the can," she says.

Candidate was useless, hidden away.
Unable to offer opinion on Johnson,
they must have plans for him!

Shrewsbury..

BREAKING NEWS: Number 10 have just
announced that Carrie Johnson has
given birth to another baby.

.

https://twitter.com/BenChilton/status/1471779226969952256?s=19

..

Daniel Kawczynski my MP should be up next,another vile corrupt tory mp..


his pockets stuffed with petrodollars

Polls get it wrong again ?

and after the Batley and Spen fiasco surely our politics expects haven’t
made another total **** up of it ? Bhhahahahaha
Just saying .

some consolation for you then lfc

Have never met one person that's had a good word to say about him,everyone seems to hate him just go to his twitter feed or anything about him..It's just these rancid old duffers they vote for dogsh1t with a blue rosette..

Hardly surprising that Bojo got a good kicking with all that's gone on. If I was Sir Keir though I would be wondering if it was worth showing up at the next general erection.

Which polls lfc?

Thanks for sharing them.


Some of us dun OK, others not so.

Flying blind and making guesses, thats
what you would hope.

Don't fink anybody's done the turkey monets

Wasn’t referring to you yhtl of course

@ This looks really tough for the Libdems . A 60% leave seat
where they finished with 10% of the vote last time

That’s a poor guess , which guesser said that ?

I’ve spoken to nearly 1000 voters on the doorstep
and only one has said they’ll vote Lib Dem ...

@ that may be correct , lol ....

@ that’s from one of the Lib Dem’s main organisers
If that’s what they are saying on the doors the Tory vote
is going to be a tough one to crack ...

Then there was guggli - who chases canvassers up the garden path
What a mug

The more input we get the more
chance we have of ending up correct.

Surprisingly that’s not the case - and even if the information comes from people who know what they are talking about
( you know not guessers like pp etc )
Because information is always based on what has gone before , not what will happen in the future
The future is always different - less information can be better

I'm surprised anyone takes notice of these polls these days, especially after Brexit in 2016.

What polls sparrow, there were none!

One has appeared as an exit poll but looks
too bad to be true.

I'm always grateful for opinions on events
I'm considering... even if I disagree.

Ah , so there was an exit poll - normally ( based on the past ) these are very reliable
But not this one - when something surprising happened - so it must have been too bad to be true ...

It was made by gb news

We didn't see it until today, so it wasn't considered in real time.




There was a plunge on tories and that coincides
with time this would have been available,

After polls closed.

The plunge reversed when folk at count could see
bundles of votes stacking up.

Lib dems went from 1.8 to 1.15 when lib
mp said they were confident of large victory.

The plunge on Boris was probably from the rather flimsy Newsnight reporting which basically
said: nice try Libs, but cons are complacently holding on.

Dec 17, 2021 -- 4:08PM, sparrow wrote:

I'm surprised anyone takes notice of these polls these days, especially after Brexit in 2016.

The Brexit polls in 2016 were spot on.

That's also possible escapee,

Maybe even  backed up by whoever had this terrible poll.

The guy on Sky was pretty good I thought. He said two or three different sources had the LibDems edging it including the Greens candidate who was at the count.

LDs won easily there was no "edging it" about it. Surprising how those working on the ground could not spot this.

I had sky on too.

I think they are streets ahead at the mo
for UK coverage.

Dec 17, 2021 -- 4:59PM, A_T wrote:

LDs won easily there was no "edging it" about it. Surprising how those working on the ground could not spot this.

This was at the start of the count. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

Dec 17, 2021 -- 5:00PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

I had sky on too.I think they are streets ahead at the mofor UK coverage.

On Sky, when the tory MP was interviewed it was pretty obvious they were busted, before the LibDems claimed that they thought they had won.

pity to see Tim Farron trying to absorb all the glory...seeing as he's neither especially liberal or democratic in outlook...

Tory mp more or less let slip they thought they had lost.

Interviewer picked him up on that, and he tried to
reverse out as a slip of the tongue type thing...

I don't like farron.

where's Ed Davey ? flogging second hand cars or something..looks about his level...and I'm a Lib dem voter !

He's isolating

fair enough, missed that yhtl...

politicspunter Joined: 20 Mar 18
Replies: 3466917 Dec 21 16:51

The Brexit polls in 2016 were spot on.





It wasn’t just a bad night for Europhiles and David Cameron, but also for pollsters, who misread the mood of the electorate in the run-up to the vote.

Of 168 polls carried out since the EU referendum wording was decided last September, fewer than a third (55 in all) predicted a leave vote.

The actual result on the night came in at 51.9% leave, 48.1% remain. Just 16 of 168 individual polls predicted a 52:48 split in favour of leave.

Polls did give a sense of the swing to leave in the first weeks of June, but edged back to favour remain in the final days before the vote. Just two of six polls released the day before the referendum – those carried out by TNS and Opinium – gave leave the edge.

Polls still have a value, and part of the picture. But they still require interpretation. Unless you try to be one of the fff loons stalking the internet 20 hours a day, the markets will largely reflect the polls. As with any betting genre, knowing or correctly interpreting something that the wider market doesn't is the real edge.

Interpret the polls in 2016 anyway you like cider but the point is they were hopelessly wrong.

Aside from the fact that many people were engaging in politics for the first, and probably only time in their lives. People you might usually say are 'off the grid' and wouldn't dream of participating in a poll.

Dec 18, 2021 -- 8:53AM, sparrow wrote:

Interpret the polls in 2016 anyway you like cider but the point is they were hopelessly wrong.

The EU Referendum polls were spot on. All polls are of value but the polls closest to the event happening are much more valid than ones conducted a year in advance. Modellers give weightings to the dates polls are conducted and also to the company conducting them. Regarding the EU Referendum, of the 42 polls taken nearest the vote itself, 19 were for remain, 19 were for leave, 4 were tied. It was a stonewall toss up.

Eight polling companies published ‘ final ‘ estimates of voting intention
based on interviewing that concluded no more than four days before polling day

Although two companies did anticipate that leave would win
and one reckoned it would be a draw , the remaining five companies all
put remain ahead
No company managed to estimate leaves share exactly let alone underestimate it
In short , the polls collectively underestimated the strength of Leave support

the polls collectively underestimated the strength of Leave support

people were ashamed to admit they were voting leave - we're finding out why now...

Lol

Britain should never have joined the EU never mind having to leave
The EU has been a disaster for Britain and other EU countries also

Should never have been allowed to vote to leave. 67% voted to join - you can't go changing your mind willy-nilly about these things

Agree , no more referendums in the UK

no - having had another now it should be "best of 3" - just to be fair

with a double-weighting for uni students and graduates

sorry if you haven’t left school then you shouldn’t be allowed to vote
if you’ve left school at 16 then you can vote

Politics Punter clearly intent on ignoring all the evidence supplied here.

over 65s should be excluded from voting due to having insufficient stake in the future of the country

Dec 18, 2021 -- 10:55AM, sparrow wrote:

Politics Punter clearly intent on ignoring all the evidence supplied here.

I have just given you the evidence. Here are all the polls if you wish to check what I said is correct..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
.

Of 168 polls carried out since the EU referendum wording was decided last September, fewer than a third (55 in all) predicted a leave vote.

The actual result on the night came in at 51.9% leave, 48.1% remain. Just 16 of 168 individual polls predicted a 52:48 split in favour of leave.



Did you read this, pp?

i think it's difficult to factor-in people being untruthful to pollsters

Dec 18, 2021 -- 10:58AM, sparrow wrote:

Of 168 polls carried out since the EU referendum wording was decided last September, fewer than a third (55 in all) predicted a leave vote.The actual result on the night came in at 51.9% leave, 48.1% remain. Just 16 of 168 individual polls predicted a 52:48 split in favour of leave.Did you read this, pp?

I did and you will note in my reply that I said that the polls nearest the event itself were the most relevant. Polls conducted in September 2015 are virtually irrelevant compared to the polls conducted in the month or so leading up to the vote.

So those polls conducted nearest the event were the most relevant?  Remind me of the betting in the last month.

Dec 18, 2021 -- 11:04AM, sparrow wrote:

So those polls conducted nearest the event were the most relevant?

The betting was roughly 1/3 remain, 3/1 leave.

You do make me laugh pp. Even Farage had conceded defeat at the end but what did you expect to happen.

Dec 18, 2021 -- 11:41AM, sparrow wrote:

You do make me laugh pp. Even Farage had conceded defeat at the end but what did you expect to happen.

Actually, Farage had access to a private exit poll that had Leave ahead. Feel free to research it. Farage is only interested in making money for himself, which his fellow conspirators then proceeded to do, betting on the stock market, financial exchanges and the outcome itself.

Dec 18, 2021 -- 11:41AM, sparrow wrote:

You do make me laugh pp. Even Farage had conceded defeat at the end but what did you expect to happen.

What I expected to happen was that the result would be a toss up.

Mrs was convinced leave had won.

There was £2 k at 8/1 on here, I said do you
want it, are you sure, do you want any of it?.

She doesn't punt much...

Left it

Still complaining I didn't make her back it

Lol...

Remain was 1.06 as polls closed, all based on polls schmolls

A view from Labour..



https://labourhub.org.uk/2021/12/21/a-letter-from-north-shropshire/

I remember getting 8’s I think it was the evening of the vote.

If the last three by elections, including this one, are an indication of a future unofficial agreement regarding Labour and LibDem campaigning, then the tories are completely busted.

A general election is completely different to a by-election.

If the collective Left want the Tories out, to pass PR legislation then have another general election they will need an agreement of who stands where and a campaign telling the electorate exactly what they are doing.

It's very doable but the problem as always is the vanity of the leaders.

Labour shouldn't have gone gung ho for devolution. If they hadn't give the Scots the idea they could rule themselves they might not have lost Scotland to the SNP. IMO

There is no left..just slightly worse conservatives..

Nonsense. Keir Starmer is miles to the left of Boris. As is Ed Davy and neither could ever be described as Conservatives.

Nonsense.

Boris is a liberal leftie green too.

Most on here think anyone to the left of Gengis Khan are communists.

Most on here think gengis was a commie leftie.

You might be more up to date than me, have to laugh.

Most on here think gengis was a commie leftie.

He liberated a lot of people from local tyrants.