2024 USA Presidential Election

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
1h
Updated estimate:
Harris 75.7m votes (48.5%)
Trump 77.9m votes (49.9%)
other 2.6m votes (1.6%) 

Total turnout 156.1m votes (vs 158.6m in 2020)
Trump margin +1.4%
Tipping-point state: PA (Trump +2.0%)

Crimea is not going back to Ukraine any day soon edy.

What’s worse is if Chump forces Ukraine to cede land in the East.

Pretty depressing but Kompromat is Kompromat and silence is as golden as showers.

On the plus side is that we may have £3 Billion a year extra to spend on the UK

Anyone else heard the rumours Trump has had a stroke?

I am pretty sure he has not got close since he knocked her up with Baron and jumped on Stormy Daniels.

I guess they can all have a stroke now her nude pictures are published.

Day1

36 days away!

The war in Ukraine will be over

Mr Putin must be trembling

Rumour is Gary Barlows son is as tall as baron.

bitcoin

tesla shares

up 35%

I think Tesla cars might become targets for disaffected groups . We shall see what the share price is if that happens

Can you imagine people using Tesla’s as a target for hate

Read this today...

All 50 states shifted red in 2024

Republicans have won a larger share of votes in every state in 2024 compared to 2020, with 95 percent of votes counted nationwide.

In the 2020 election, Trump received 37.74 percent of the vote in New York, while Biden secured 60.87 percent. However, in 2024, Trump earned 44.17 percent of the vote, compared to 55.83 percent for Harris. This marks the biggest shift, with a 6.43 percent change, and nearly 97 percent of the vote counted.

Other notable swings to the right include New Jersey (4.92 percent), Florida (4.88 percent), California (4.61 percent) and Massachusetts (4.38 percent).






A proper swingometer election.

trump & musk

steptoe & son

Think musk could be great,I know he’s worth 300 billion,but telling the people they must live within their means,and slashing gov spending tells me this guy knows his stuff.

Loads of waste is in gov spending ,so there’s loads of savings to be made.

I bet there’s enough waste ,that you could fund a space flight to mars.thank god musk will sort this out.

Elon is with Trump so much they're calling him melonia

More chance of him sharing trumps bed than his wife,given how she looks at him.

"The chickens are coming home to roost"  World wide

they were all very mouthy when they thought Trump was history

classic TBH ................

Trump and Musk on the Blower to Vlod , Vlad will not want to be hearing that , Vlad refuted Trump was on the blower to him giving him a warming Last week

Vlod Needs money and Arms and he is in touch with the Richest man in the World .. 

Vlads move , let the Game continue,   hopefully this War comes to an End ASAP  , But somehow Vlod and Vlad have to appear to be  Winners

300 billion USD Musk

Comes to Vlod or Vlad , He would not be backing Putin that is a certainty

I predict an Acceptable Line is Drawn between Ukraine and Russia , crimea Stays russian , Massive funding to help rebuild Ukraine , Trump lifts some sanctions on Russia

Zalensky Stopped Russia Invading , Putin has Held Nato Back

A few Drones and missiles   Fired between now and January

massive back slapping events  in Ukraine and Russia

Sadly many many  thousands of young men lost on Both sides

The Building Contractors Probably all Yanks , Perhaps we can help out with Heat Pumps and Windmills

Of course I may be wrong

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
3h
Updated estimate:
Harris 75.5m votes (48.4%)
Trump 77.8m votes (49.8%)
other 2.7m votes (1.7%) 
Total turnout 156.0m votes (vs 158.6m in 2020)
Trump margin +1.4%
Tipping-point state: PA (Trump +1.9%)

Nate Silver seems pretty confident that Trump won't achieve 50% of the vote.

I just got matched at 1.52 on 45.00--49.99%

They are still offering 170 in the party of popular vote winner market.

Nov 13, 2024 -- 12:16PM, Escapee wrote:

I just got matched at 1.52 on 45.00--49.99%

Ah, it was you! I was hanging around trying to decide what to do when you raked it in.

Just noticed that there is £6.64 traded at 1000 45-49.99% That's going to be a sore one for someone if that goes in. The best that I managed to get was a couple of pound at 50s 45-49.99% and layed £36 at 1.08 50-54.99%.

£47,933.04 traded at 1.01 50-54.99% seems nuts now but there you go.

47k available at 1.01!

Just 5k traded

£65k traded at 1.02

Replies: 16,910
----you-have-to-laugh---12 Nov 24 12:34
1.01 strugglin

1.01

£5,052.87

1.02

£65,324.02

1.03

£12,291.23

1.04

£4,552.73

1.05

£6,052.72

1.06

£7,594.92

1.07

£6,636.06

1.08

£1,751.33

1.09

£1,704.79

1.1

£9,202.28

1.11

£71,501.40




Trump over 50

Nov 13, 2024 -- 1:20PM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:

47k available at 1.01!Just 5k traded

Of course, sorry, my mistake.

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
23h
Updated estimate:
Harris 75.0m votes (48.3%) 
Trump 77.4m votes (49.8%) 
other 2.9m votes (1.9%)   
Total turnout 155.3m votes (vs 158.6m in 2020) 
Trump margin +1.6% (with rounding)
Tipping-point state: PA (Trump +1.9%)

45.0--49.9 down to 1.09--1.11

76,371,044   
49.99%   

Trump vote share

Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
·
3h
New
@CookPolitical
: Trump has fallen below 50% of the popular vote. With 152.7M votes counted, he leads Harris 49.99%-48.22%.

McMahon must have donated a lot of money to the Trump campaign like Betsy before her.

Drain the Swamp

Re the Nate Silver info above, can anyone share the number of votes for each party in 2020 v 2024. It feels like the Republican vote has stayed the same or even gone down a little, but the big change is that the Dems simply didn't come out in enough numbers.

Is that right?

There was a big swing in independents from Dem to rep

So some of each stayed home, and them in middle swung
it for trump.

Small swing black males to trump

Small swing females to harris

Nov 20, 2024 -- 6:20AM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:

Re the Nate Silver info above, can anyone share the number of votes for each party in 2020 v 2024. It feels like the Republican vote has stayed the same or even gone down a little, but the big change is that the Dems simply didn't come out in enough numbers.Is that right?

2020 was 81M-74M Biden-Trump. Now 77M-74M Trump leads, still maybe a million left to count.

I'd say 3 million Biden voters didn't bother.

But, even if they had, Trump would still have won as another 3M switched to him.

Any illicit substances experts around? What powders do you get on your fingers in a pocket at rocket launches and rub onto your gums?

Any illicit substances experts around? What powders do you get on your fingers in a pocket at rocket launches and rub onto your gums?

Got a Link?

https://x.com/MeidasTouch/status/1859068380357034337

Donald Trump Jr.
@DonaldJTrumpJr
Free Ross!!!!!

https://x.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1841554200146083855

Hmmmmmm......

When you go to see a rocket launch and decide to take your Nokia N95 out the cupboard to film it.

I don't know what he rubs onto his gums, but I'm pretty sure it wasn't a Nokia N95.

Maybe the recorder wanted to use the same camera that was used to film the Wright brothers.

I think the original quality is probably decent enough. It was after all used by Sky News in one of their live streams of the event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMICO01dAps

The relevant part is shortly after the 5 minute mark .When stuff gets downloaded, digitally zoomed, compressed locally, compressed again by the social media platform then visual quality can sometimes suffer.

When stuff gets downloaded, digitally zoomed

Why would a person do that rather than just show the original video?

To better direct the focus on the part that they deem important. Have you never zoomed into anything?

Yes but then I usually think it is often at the sacrifice of quality and context.

The zoomer probably indded did not have the people in mind that play short X snippets on their 70 inch 8K DV HDR10+ televisions.

With you mentioning context: Do you feel important context was lost, possibly deliberately omitted, in this example?

I see Epstein got scared of the humiliation of not getting through a Republican controlled Congress.

Apparently ambulances and secret service have been seen leaving Mar-a-Lago.

Andrew Feinberg
@AndrewFeinberg
NOW: Per pool,  2 ambulances and several vans that appeared full of
@SecretService
have left Mar-a-Lago in the last few minutes.
10:16 PM · Nov 21, 2024
·
197.7K
Views

Andrew Feinberg
@AndrewFeinberg
·
5m
This is according to a note from the CBS tv pool crew near Palm Beach.

Andrew Feinberg
@AndrewFeinberg
·
59s
The protective pool (a CBS TV crew) also reported “about 20-25 cars, two ambulances and a helicopter hovering above” entering MAL a few minutes before the vans and ambulances were spotted leaving.

I have contacted a transition spokesperson for more information.

https://x.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1859707486204260629

Andrew Feinberg
@AndrewFeinberg
·
28s
CALM DOWN, PEOPLE.

Per a transition source and
@SecretService
, the ambulances were part of Vice President-elect
@JDVance
’s motorcade.

False alarm.

Go about your business.

https://x.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1859714161519047152

Phew, Don Jr. didn't overdose.

oh powder sugar.

Drama queen.

Yeah, Vance needs to get a grip having that kind of motorcade while not even being vice president yet.

Is what people are saying about Gaetz true? That he's a dirty fornicator? I would have thought the extreme lawfaring DOJ would jump all over the chance to prosecute a prominent right winger if they even had the tiniest sliver of a case. Surely they wouldn't just let him off if there was credible evidence?

It was about ethics and he ended up being turned over by the few remaining non-RINO GOP senators that actually value ethics and family values. The few GOP senators that neither infiltrated the party in the loonie unethical leftie hippie takeover, nor simp hard towards those that hijacked the party.

Imagine being so disliked and slimy that you are still not good enough for a largely hijacked party that has as big a majority in the Senate as a party can realistically get there these days.

next

With some luck Marjorie will be nominated as AG next.

Could be a 4D chess move to find out who the traitors are.

Those are well known.

She's been nominated for the DOGE committee.

Shame, but probably better to not have her have to go through a confirmation.

True, she's such a legend it would overwhelm everyone.

Pam Bondi is the new AG pick. Another legend.

Classic trumpian promote the swamp pick.

Cozying up to Scientologist and working as a lobbyist for the bad faith qatari leadership shows huge character and integrity.

Scientology

In addition to the illegal donations from Trump and such.

It's funny that MAGA celebrate this kinda stuff because perceived triggering of the libs trumps everything, always has.

It's a 4D chess move, Gaetz was the trojan horse with Bondi inside, and now they have wasted all their ammo on Gaetz so they can't say no to Bondi. What a genius move.

The Republican big majority Senate wouldn't have said no to Bondi if she had been nominated from the get-go either. Islamist lobbying Scientology sympathisers with a bit of swamp are far less objectionable than a rather crude and slimy person that was thoroughly disliked by even his own colleagues in the house.

Superb 4D chess move. There's no way they would have approved her without sending Gaetz in first to flush out the traitors. Now they have got no choice, game set and match.

I think they just trousered some money from Gaetz daddy

They knew he could never get through scrutiny

Also Chump might just have been having a laugh

Makes you wonder if a lot of the money backing Trump might have been from in the know Dems:

A senior adviser to Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign said their own internal polling never showed her leading President-elect Donald Trump, and they were "surprised" when public polls put her ahead.

"We were behind, I mean, I think it surprised people because there were these public polls that came out in late September, early October, showing us with leads that we never saw," senior campaign adviser David Plouffe said on the politics podcast "Pod Save America" that aired Tuesday.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/harris-campaign-aide-david-plouffe-she-really-can-win-all-7-swing-states/

If that is the case then he was being a little dishonest in this interview the day before the election. If the Democrats' internal polling was showing Trump winning then the Trump campaign polling would very likely have been showing the same.

The people lumping the millions on here and elsewhere were almost certainly connected to the Trump campaign and would have had access to the data in my view. In 2016, Paul Manafort was passing internal polling data to the Russians, so who knows how many people had access this year.

Now that Kash Patel has been put in charge of the FBI Jill can finally be indicted for impersonating a panda. These people can't be allowed to get away with it.

Well, Hunter Biden will be getting away with it as he has just been pardoned.

Biden wasn't meant to be lame like that.....

From a MAGA this lack of integrity would have been expected and no big deal, but from Joe it is shattering....

Sold a pup.

Joe never looked happier since Trump won.

Helping him out here, will blunt the hysteria about the mass pardons Trump is gonna issue.

There is going to be one heck of a crack, guns and hoes Christmas party in Washington this month.

He might as well get ahead and steal the pardon of that crypto drug pirate that Trump wants to pardon or commute the sentence of for his druggie friends.

Maybe Joe will pardon the January 6th guys.

That would be such an own. Merciless, baby! The libs really should be more like the MAGAs and center their primary decision making on getting owns on the other party, irregardless of whether it really makes sense for them to do so otherwise and aligns with principles.

https://x.com/NateSilver538/with_replies

Nate Silver is not pleased.

Is Patel meant to be confirmed before January 20th so that Trump can order him to have Joe Biden arrested live on TV the moment the Democrat ceases to be US President?

Pure nepotism but no surprise.
Biden is literally about to slip away out of the public eye away to die, why’s he care?
He is taking a final bullet for his son….just as Dawkins showed in The Selfish Gene, you will need people to hold you back from entering a burning building to save your own, hesitate slightly for a sibling’s kid and then it falls off extremely quickly for anyone else.

Let’s just hope Trump uses everyday like a suicide mission and goes down in the fire like a real hero.

A pardon for Hunter wasn't unreasonable. Like Trump's prosecutions, Hunter's was a political prosecution that would not normally be pursued. It's a shame it won't make it to the supreme court now because it would have been a good case to set a precedent for 2a rights. The issue was that he lied on a form about drug use, but some argue that asking gun owners to complete a form is an infringement of their 2a rights which according to the constitution shall not be infringed.

i've no wish to sound like cider but i said he would do this.the don would have pardoned hunter so joe is sparing himself the humiliation

Maybe Joe will pardon the January 6th guys.

no he will definitely leave that to the don because it will thoroughly p1ss off all the gop lawmakers who were sh1tting themselves they were going to be strung up by bare-chested men wearing bear-hats

Has anyone tried turning America off and on again?

They are trying it by electing Trump.

still counting votesCalifornia , so payouton % vote in limbo ; What a system !!. Newcomer to E