2024 USA Presidential Election

Good article in today's Telegraph about the Newson vs Ron debate.

Why the rise of Gavin Newsom should worry the White House
www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2023/11/30/newsom-desantis-debate-presidential-2024-fox-sean-hannity/

Biden campaign source confirming Newsom gave them a heads up and made sure Biden's team was ok with this debate going ahead.

What can DeSantis hope to achieve in this debate? He hasn't been particularly impressive so far in the GOP candidate ones, although he has done ok. There must be a massive downside threat here for him surely?

Exactly. The upside is capped and the downside is unlimited. It makes little sense.

I think he's doing it for two reasons. Firstly he gets a chance to be seen properly going after an opponent 9which he can't do running against Trump because he's trying not to alienate Trump's base). Secondly he's thinking his record as Florida governor matches up well against Newsom's record as california governor (which it obviously does) but he's underestimating Newsom's political skills.

When Ron gets interviewed by DNC friendly media it usually follows the same format.

He'll make some quite good points on an issue, then the interviewer tries to get him to take a shot at Trump (eg do you think Trump is too old to be in the race) and then Ron refuses to bite and the interview dies. It must be very frustrating.

In this debate he can show the real pugilist Ron (or so he thinks).

Nov 30, 2023 -- 12:03PM, yak hunt wrote:

Ron Filipkowski@RonFilipkowski·30mBREAKING: The FL State GOP Chair and his wife who co-founded Moms for Liberty are reportedly being investigated for sexual battery after a woman alleging she was in a sexual relationship with the couple filed a complaint.A pretty bizarre story but DeSantis is really close to these folks.

Oh dear! Apparently, there are illegally made sex tapes of these gatherings. Mrs Moms for Liberty is Casey DeSantis best pal.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/11/29/chris-christie-should-drop-out-00129145

More people need to say it, why are you still in the race if your objective is to stop Trump, if he still lines up in Iowa which means he's lining up in NH then all the credibility he did have left will be gone.

Bestshot. I wondered why Christie is not in the Betfair Iowa market charts? You'll have to let me know if he does declare. It'll be interesting to see how quickly the 1.01 bets start to roll in... tick, tick

Of course, I'd back him (with the benefit of your advanced tip-off) and then be the second punter to back £1 at 1000.1 and then both of us could start "scalping" the latecomers. What could possibly go wrong?

RDS 1, Brylcreamed teeth, 0

I have been watching clips of the debate. Newsom is impressive, very impressive.

Newsom wanted to continue for another half hour and they all agreed to it and then went to an ad break and when they came back they were both gone. Hannity then said they both had other commitments. Looks like Ron didn't fancy it and did a runner.

New poll , Trump 68 , De Santos 9 , Haley 7
Ramaswamy , 4 ,

Watched first half hr or so of debate
Nothing we haven’t heard before or unexpected

Biden the only name on Florida primary ballot so he takes all the delegates.
.https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/30/florida-democrats-dean-phillips-election-00129403

California deadline in 2 weeks I think, so there's not going to be any late challenger, all about whether he decides to drop out.

Nov 30, 2023 -- 10:46PM, Jack Bauer "24" wrote:

Newsom wanted to continue for another half hour and they all agreed to it and then went to an ad break and when they came back they were both gone. Hannity then said they both had other commitments. Looks like Ron didn't fancy it and did a runner.

Newsom won if you're on the left and DeSantis won if you're on the right. Think DeSantis overall had the better night but was bound too with Hannity in the chair.

NBC and Politico confirm that Newsom's wife called it off.

2.5 weeks since an Iowa poll, only 4 polls in November and 2 of them were from Fabrizio/Trafalgar. Why are there not many polls? Polling is big business these days isn't it...

You feel there should be quite a few primary polls on the way. We are into December and companies will want to get polling done and published well before Christmas holidays.

Strictly, they could be waiting till after the fourth debate.

Possibly but even before now we're far behind 16 but maybe some pollsters have given up as they think its over?

Odds of Trafalgar getting Chistie 6% in a national poll on the 4th December...

Bro lived in Des Moines til he went to meet his maker last year - RIP - he used to say he was surrounded by Democrats but anyways, this morning on but365 Gavin Newsom was 6/1, on here he was 14/1. It could happen, put a tenner on but praying I don't win

Trump's reaction to Newson versus Desantis 'They both worked hard and they both did well.'
Source Fox Digital

Ever since Haley got the endorsement of the Koch-linked AFP Superpac (the one that Trump calls 'Americans for China Prosperity') there have just been signs that he's maybe shifting his focus to Haley a bit.

If you saw Trump's press release yesterday then I don't think you'd be saying that He's quite lucky he's not on Twitter anymore as he can basically say whatever he wants on TS.

But yes I agree, he has attacked Haley now too, his ego is so big and fragile that he can't stand to have someone think they can compete with him.

Polls are like Roman roads. Well maintained with a solid foundation in truth, they can be straight and truly lead you in the right direction. However, polls that buy data from The Epoch Times must be regarded as a twisted road to hell. Anyway, polls will not change the odds on Betfair.

Christie fails to get the 2,000 signatures needed to get on Maine ballot. Burgum & Binkley managed it.

.https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/chris-christie-may-not-appear-on-republican-primary-ballot-in-maine/

Dec 1, 2023 -- 7:03PM, askjack wrote:

Polls are like Roman roads. Well maintained with a solid foundation in truth, they can be straight and truly lead you in the right direction. However, polls that buy data from The Epoch Times must be regarded as a twisted road to hell. Anyway, polls will not change the odds on Betfair.

Yep, that's why following non biased polls means consistent profit.

User
In what ways could users be simulated to take part in the poll?

ChatGPT
Simulating user participation in a poll involves creating a system that mimics the behavior of real users. Here are several ways you could simulate user engagement in a poll:

Random Selection: Simulate users by randomly selecting responses from a predefined set. This method assumes a diverse range of opinions.

Scripted Responses: Develop a script that generates responses based on predefined patterns. For example, you might script some users to consistently vote for a specific option, while others vary their choices.

Sentiment Analysis: Utilize sentiment analysis algorithms to simulate user responses. This can add a layer of realism by generating responses that reflect positive, negative, or neutral sentiments.

Historical Data: If available, use historical data from the forum to simulate user behavior. This can involve analyzing past interactions and preferences to create realistic patterns for each simulated user.

Machine Learning Models: Train machine learning models to generate responses based on the patterns observed in the forum. This approach requires a substantial amount of data and computational resources.

Behavioral Models: Develop behavioral models that take into account factors such as user activity, post frequency, and time spent on the forum. Simulate users with different levels of engagement and commitment.

User Profiles: Create fictional user profiles with unique characteristics, backgrounds, and preferences. Simulate these users based on their profiles, ensuring a diverse representation in the poll.

Community Guidelines: Apply community guidelines to simulate realistic constraints on user behavior. For instance, some simulated users might engage respectfully, while others may adopt a more confrontational tone.

Remember that the goal is to create a realistic representation of user participation, considering the diversity of opinions and engagement levels typically found in a political chat forum. Depending on your specific objectives, you can choose one or a combination of these methods to simulate user involvement in the poll.

American spell was used in the previous post.

If you follow non biased polls closely, you often find that the prices on both exchanges and traditional bookmakers is out of line with the current situation. There are many people who bet on politics that do so on an irregular basis ie a general election/by election is currently taking place, who have no idea at all what the true respective odds of each result are. These people bet who they want to win and bet against those whom they wish to lose, completely irrespective of the prices.

https://www.markpack.org.uk/168231/polling-unpacked-the-history-uses-and-abuses-of-political-opinion-polls/

This book is an excellent read for anyone interested in opinion polls.

Chaos going on in DeSantis SuperPac Never back Down

22nd November CEO Chris Jankowski resigns.
'Never Back Down’s main goal and sole focus has been to elect Governor Ron DeSantis as President. Given the current environment it has become untenable for me to deliver on the shared goal and that goes well beyond a difference of strategic opinion.'

1st December Chairman Adam Laxalt resigns.
'After nearly 26 straight months of being in a full-scale campaign, I need to return my time and attention to my family and law practice'

2nd December interim CEO Kristin Davison fired for 'management and personnel issues'.

Source CNN/Politico

Laxalt known as being close to Ron. Strange timing after more than 2 years to quit just before Iowa.

Trafalgar to come out with some polls soon...odds that they give Christie 6% nationally before the deadline tomorrow night?

Christie's claiming a libpatriot poll partly conducted before the polling window opened and a poll conducted by a pollster associated with a DeSantis PAC. I'm not sure what the RNC stance is, they denied Suarez had qualified for the first debate when he claimed he had, but I don't think they have commented on anyone else's qualification nor Christie's here.

Christie at 6% with Trafalgar on deadline day, who would've thought it!

Cahaly who runs Trafalgar is pro-Trump, having Christie there helps Trump as his rhetoric rallies the base as well as hurting the other candidates by taking up more air time.

I think he still needs 6% in another state poll. He has 2 state polls already but they're both from NH, I believe he needs 2 polls from separate states, if he only has 1 national poll.

https://afpaction.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/AFP-Action-Internal-Polling-Memo.pdf

2024 Iowa Republican Caucus:

Trump 44%
Haley 17%
DeSantis 16%

.
@AFPAction
(Pro Haley), 800 LV, 11/19-21

From that same polling group above...

New Hampshire

Trump 40%
Haley 25%
DeSantis 9%

Remember this group supports Haley so results may be skewed in her favour.

That doesn't look too far off the average poll in New Hampshire. It is feasible she could win there but she needs Christie to drop out, no signs he will yet as that is the only state he is focussing on. A Sununu endorsement may help too.

I'm level on all republicans outright now, dutch layed them all at 1.9 last week, so no dog in the fight.

Hutchinson needs to drop out too. Someone has put a ballot access table up on Wiki, he has only made it in 4 out of 11 states so far.

They are internal polls so can't be hundred percent trusted but are not far out of line. What I found interesting was that Haley is gaining in Iowa from the field though not from Trump but in New Hampshire it's the other way around.

Burgum's out, another couple of % available in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Surely Hutchison can't hang on much longer either? He is just wasting time and money.

Im surprised he has made it this long, feels like he dropped out months ago.

Yak Hunt "What I found interesting was that Haley is gaining in Iowa...". Yes, me too! I think it's eminently possible that the Betfair Republican Primaries - Iowa Caucus popular vote winner market will start to get more and more active.

My current position is
Total Stake: £6.12

Liability:
£6.18
Cash Out
£4.53
Profit:
-£1.65

Date: 04/12/23 20:50

At the moment there's mainly auto tick hunting where 'rump's price will regularly fluctuate between 1.08 and 1.13 and will probably continue in that fashion until the new year.

I use https://www.w3newspapers.com/usa/iowa/ list of local papers to try and get a "feel" for the way things are going.

One thing that could change in the betting is which candidate Iowa's U.S. Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Ashley Hinson, Zach Nunn and Randy Feenstra endorse.

How do you use eminently in a sentence?
He is eminently capable, but light years from a certainty.

Haley, DeSantis, Vivek, Christie in the debate on Thursday.

Christie just sneaks in. The RNC have accepted a libpatriot poll partly conducted before the polling window, according to Politico's tracker, along with the Trafalgar poll on Sunday.

LOL Cahaly threatening to sue people who think something's off with Christie getting 6%, always the right-wingers who hate the first amendment when it doesn't suit them. They don't even have any data from the poll, it's probably just totally made up.

Trump basically owns McDaniel too, so no surprise Christie made it.

DeSantis has held off his attacks on other candidates, think he goes after Haley tomorrow.

Hmmm Biden says he's not sure he would be running if Trump wasn't running.

DeSantis wants Haley 1v1 but she wont do it as of yet, saying she will only do RNC sanctioned debates. If they put a 5th debate on and up the polling again it would probably be only them two that make it.

2024 Iowa Republican Caucus (Shift since 11/5):

Trump 45% (+1)
DeSantis 22% (+4)
Haley 19% (+4)
Ramaswamy 5% (=)
Christie 4% (-1)
Burgum 2% (-2)
Hutchinson 1% (+1)

.
@trafalgar_group
, 1,091 LV, 12/1-4

It's Trafalgar who can't be trusted at all but its better than nothing.

I think Haley will be the happiest with those numbers.

What seems to be becoming clear is that Trump has a rock solid mid forties support in early primaries. Probably if he was facing a single other GOP candidate, he would have enough support to take him over the 50% mark but it could be close.

Its a shocking state of affairs when there's barely any early polls so we have to take note of Trafalgar who IMO don't even contact any voters.

Paul Motty did a US article today - https://betting.betfair.com/politics/us-politics/2024-us-election-betting-odds-and-republican-primary-debate-preview-051223-171.html

And from the DM Register today - https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/20...

The DM article has not come up but you'll find it under 'Iowa Caucuses'

Haley's NH State Director is no longer with the campaign due to personal reasons, also, 2 AFP Iowa grassroots directors have left to work for NeverBackDown, been a lot of pushback from those within the group after they endorsed Haley.

Monmouth National favourable ratings:

Trump     76/18
DeSantis  62/19
Haley     42/30
Vivek     36/23
Christie  12/65

Horrible numbers there for Haley, like Paul Motty says she's getting demolished in a h2h against Trump. The more people learn about her the worse it'll get IMO. DeSantis is the only one that stands half a chance against Trump but Haley ain't dropping out until after NH at the earliest.

DeSantis' new pac Fight right spending 1.45 million dollars on running this ad in Iowa against Haley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YNXHJJ39gM

So far she has run a good campaign in terms of raising her profile and establishing an image as the traditional Neo con throwback.
We'll soon know if there's actually still a voter base of any size for a candidate on that space.

That's a devastating ad isn't it, his new PAC are holding nothing back are they.

DeSantis will go for the kill tonight IMO, and he needs to.

Reading debate reviews..

Haley and Christie winners. DeSantis did ok but that's about it. Vivek is obnoxious and really shouldn't be there.

I thought Haley lacked a lot of airtime, Christie big improvement, DeSantis didn't look as awkward and probably won with republicans, Vivek same old. Could tell the audience were tiring of Vivek, almost as many boos as Christie, think they'll struggle to get him over the line if he somehow ends up replacing Trump.

Market thinks Trump won again.

My hunch is DeSantis will beat expectations in Iowa but not enough for Haley to drop out. He would need some serious momentum coming out of Iowa to be competitive in NH where he is a long way behind Trump & Haley. Then SC shortly after where again you'd expect him to be behind Trump & Haley. His only chance may be if Trump dies.

Haley, in the end she has very little chance. But there's a path to build momentum and hype especially if Christie drops out. She needs to keep within touching distance of DeSantis in Iowa, then her favourable states of NH and SC are shortly after.

Betting them in the early states might be better. DeSantis is a bigger price to win Iowa than he is to win the nomination, Haley not far off her nomination price in NH.

Christie didn't leave any doubt that if he drops out he will be backing Haley. DeSantis looks to be in no mans land, Vivek is only there for nuisance value.

What I read was that Haley had her worst debate and DeSantis had his best, I tried to look for unbiased opinions but at the end of the day we all read what we want to haha!

Haley being a shorter price than DeSantis to win Iowa is just laughable IMO, fair enough in NH and to an extent SC but not in Iowa.

DeSantis should be 1000.0 to win either New Hampshire or South Carolina and I'm being perfectly serious. His only chance is if Trump isn't on the ballot. In Iowa, there really isn't all that much between Haley and DeSantis but Haley has momentum.

SC has similar demographics to Iowa, white and religious. That's why Huckabee, Santorum and Cruz all did well in IA and SC but failed badly in NH. If Trump and DeSantis pull away in Iowa which is a horrible state for Haley IMO (the market doesn't think so but the market doesn't have any info that I don't have), and as I've said this year unlike previous ones is all about momentum. I know the polls have D + H close currently there but it'll widen significantly. That is just my opinion, I may be wrong, but DeSantis has everything going for him there.

I'm not counting on Trump getting replaced as the nominee due to his imminent conviction in the DC trial but I think it needs to be considered, if he's facing jail do they really still put nominate him? Especially if its a close primary.

And Chris Christie, you'd think he's the guy who's hated Trump all his life, but he endorsed him in 16 and helped him for his debate against Biden, he'll probably support Trump if he's the nominee in 24 too, total grifter.

DeSantis needed a breakthrough night but Christie went after him repeatedly and as effectively as any concerted attack he's made since his takedown of Rubio back in 2016.

In Christie's interview with Morning Joe he touched on Trump and Vivek and made a fleeting attack on Haley's donors but then went all out on DeSantis again. His stated purpose (to take down Trump) doesn't really correlate with what he's actually doing.

Dec 7, 2023 -- 11:33AM, BestShot wrote:

SC has similar demographics to Iowa, white and religious. That's why Huckabee, Santorum and Cruz all did well in IA and SC but failed badly in NH. If Trump and DeSantis pull away in Iowa which is a horrible state for Haley IMO (the market doesn't think so but the market doesn't have any info that I don't have), and as I've said this year unlike previous ones is all about momentum. I know the polls have D + H close currently there but it'll widen significantly. That is just my opinion, I may be wrong, but DeSantis has everything going for him there.

DeSantis polling in Iowa has been almost static (high teens) since around the middle of July when his vote collapsed. Who is he going to gain votes from? Trump-maybe. Haley-doubtful.
Vivek-maybe. Christie-definitely not. The others are polling so low it's negligible.

The danger for DeSantis is that when folks realise that he cannot win and he starts losing vote share.

...because that is what has happened to his polling in New Hampshire and South Carolina, a slow but steady decline.

My logic is...DeSantis stands a better chance than Haley yet is more than double her price, was 4x the price a couple of weeks ago. Yes, DeSantis can tap into that 'like Trump but tired of the drama' vote, Haley can't.

The market is where the polling is today, our jobs is to try and predict where the polls and eventually the results will be in 2 months time.

I agree and my view is that Haley has momentum and is capable of gaining vote share from all the other candidates with the possible exception of Vivek. DeSantis doesn't have that appeal.

Fair enough, whoever has the momentum out of Iowa (DeSantis or Haley) should go further, so if DeSantis beats Haley by 20 or Haley beats DeSantis/or small deficit by 5 or so then there should only be Trump and one other in the race, if it wasn't for Rubio and Kasich then Cruz would be a 2 term president.

Also, another point is DeSantis or Haley has to perform better than what their polling suggests, I reckon most Super Tuesday primary voters think its over, if they realise the polls are getting it wrong then they'll think Trump is not unbeatable like the polls/media would have you believe and will start looking at other candidates more closely than they currently are.

When will my bet payout?

Research

I pasted the rules for the Iowa Caucus popular vote winner into GPT.

User
when could the popular vote winner be affirmed
ChatGPT
The timing of when the popular vote winner in the Iowa Caucus would be officially affirmed can vary based on several factors, including the efficiency of the caucus process, any potential challenges or disputes, and the official certification process. Here are some considerations:

Caucus Night: The Iowa Caucus involves a series of meetings and activities at precincts across the state. On the caucus night, participants express their preferences, and the results are reported.

Initial Reporting: Preliminary results are often reported on the same night as the caucus. However, these are not always the final, official results.

Potential Challenges: There could be challenges, disputes, or discrepancies that arise during or after the caucus. These may involve issues such as the allocation of delegates or the interpretation of caucus rules.

Official Certification: The final and official certification of the results is typically done by the Iowa Republican Party. This process may take some time as they ensure accuracy and address any concerns.

Announcement of Winner: Once the results are certified, the winner of the popular vote in the Iowa Caucus will be officially announced. The timeframe for this can vary but is generally within a few days to a couple of weeks after the caucus.

To get the most accurate and up-to-date information on when the popular vote winner will be affirmed, it is recommended to follow official announcements from the Iowa Republican Party or relevant authorities organizing the caucus. They will provide details on the timeline and any potential delays in the certification process.

The one you have to worry about is when Betfair pay out.

^ the same meaningless drivel on and on and on
this thread for months - even years !

That said it was astonishing  how many on this forum
didn’t understand the rules re betfair at the last election -
including the guy who started this thread

Here’s a little example just from page 1 of the thread

Trump will be 78 in 2024. His health isn’t the best now,
what will it be like in 4 years time? Harris would be favourite
for me v Trump … politics punter

You see if you let your bias cloud your judgement to that degree
you’re not going to get much right and will lose money

Now let’s see ..Harris was favourite to be next president round about then when that idiot politics punter piped up

What is she now , 50-1 ?   I don’t know

4 posts to come up with I DONT KNOW

I walk like Biden and it's an excruciating condition that often requires strong pain medication. Based on that, I'm backing Harris 50, 55, 60+ at just 2 quid now and then. It's just a punt and I have read the rules for the Presidential Election 2024 - Election Winner market.

The Iowa market is the first to go into play in the new year and if 'rump loses there could be disruption and delay in the winner declaration. It makes sense to be prepared.

^ more meaningless drivel

It’s like this .. if Biden doesn’t run for whatever reason

Biden and the dems will nominate Harris .. if she doesn’t withdraw , and have no plan B

They are entirely in the grip of racist demographic ideology .

Of course that will immediately shorten Harris’ possibility of being elected

The leftists are so predictable

LOL... you are funny! "You see if you let your bias cloud your judgement to that degree
you’re not going to get much right and will lose money" "They are entirely in the grip of racist demographic ideology ."

ask Jack .. I have no bias . Might be unique in that

I love and honour facts

Oh I’ve just given you a few about politics punter

My bull sh1t dectector .. is very sensitive

Selzer Poll due on Monday

Also, CNN debate requirements to not use polls from firms such as Emerson, Trafalgar, Big Village, Harris/Harvard, Morning Consult. Been saying Emerson has been crap for years, but at least this will make it harder to rig Christie and Vivek onto the stage.

The risk in blocking Christie and Vivek is that the debates mightn't happen. Haley seems a lot less keen than DeSantis, if she has the momentum she likely wont give him a chance to get back in. Easy to say she will only debate if Trump does.

If DeSantis, Haley and Trump are the only ones to reach the threshold and only DeSantis turns up, if the debate still happens or not that'll look bad on the other 2, remember its scheduled for Des Moines Iowa too so most caucus goers will want to watch.

That's good news about a new Selzer poll, normally the top pollster not just in Iowa but incredibly accurate in the grand scheme of things. I particularly don't trust Trafalgar or Harris/Harvard.

Dec 8, 2023 -- 11:57AM, lfc1971 wrote:

^ more meaningless drivel It’s like this .. if Biden doesn’t run for whatever reason Biden and the dems will nominate Harris .. if she doesn’t withdraw , and have no plan B They are entirely in the grip of racist demographic ideology .

I needed to know what you meant by, "entirely in the grip of racist demographic ideology ." just in case I misunderstood what you meant.

User
Give a for and against argument addressing why someone might describe the US Democratic Party in that way.
ChatGPT
For Argument:

Policy Critique: Some critics argue that certain policies advocated by the Democratic Party, such as affirmative action or identity-focused initiatives, might be interpreted as emphasizing demographic factors, potentially leading to concerns about reverse discrimination or favoritism based on race.

Identity Politics: Critics may contend that the Democratic Party engages in what is known as "identity politics," wherein political positions are framed around specific demographic characteristics, potentially contributing to a perception of prioritizing certain groups over others.

Perceived Overemphasis on Diversity: Critics might suggest that the emphasis on diversity within the Democratic Party could be seen as prioritizing demographics over other considerations, possibly leading to accusations of tokenism or superficial inclusion.

Against Argument:

Diverse Coalition: Supporters argue that the Democratic Party's focus on demographic issues is an effort to represent the diverse population of the United States. They maintain that the party's support for policies addressing racial and ethnic disparities is aimed at promoting equality rather than fostering discrimination.

Social Justice Advocacy: Advocates assert that the Democratic Party's stance on social justice issues reflects a commitment to addressing historical and systemic inequalities. Policies aimed at rectifying disparities, such as criminal justice reform and voting rights, are seen as attempts to create a more equitable society.

Inclusive Policies: Supporters argue that the Democratic Party's policies often aim to be inclusive, addressing the needs and concerns of various demographic groups. This inclusivity is framed as a positive approach that fosters unity and representation for all citizens.

It's important to note that opinions on political parties can vary widely, and perspectives on whether a party is influenced by a "racist demographic ideology" will depend on individual beliefs, values, and interpretations of the party's actions and policies.

Think about it!

I'm mainly laying and betting (scalping) on 'rump not because he's a racist but despite it.

The regular up and down in a point range of 6 ticks have been too hard to resist despite feeling soiled by backing 'rump in any way.

Dec 8, 2023 -- 4:50PM, yak hunt wrote:

That's good news about a new Selzer poll, normally the top pollster not just in Iowa but incredibly accurate in the grand scheme of things. I particularly don't trust Trafalgar or Harris/Harvard.

Certainly better than Trafalgar and Fabrizio and the like, we've had very few good pollsters from the early states.

Rumour control says that the Selzer poll due on Monday will be very interesting.

"We’ve seen unexpected changes in poll standings in the very last days of polling ahead of the caucuses," Selzer told the Register. "Donald Trump’s lead looks insurmountable, but you won’t hear this data geek say it’s a lock."

Casey DeSantis just asked Moms and Grandmoms from around the country to come to Iowa and illegally participate in the caucus to support Ron DeSantis.
Fact check: you have to be a resident of Iowa to participate in the caucus.

Iowa GOP put out a tweet reminding everyone that what she suggests is illegal.

Trump is going to win, the Woke Movement has destroyed the Democrats for at least one generation.