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politicspunter
11 Nov 20 13:39
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
| Topic/replies: 31,673 | Blogger: politicspunter's blog
Multiple markets up now from various firms on 2024 President plus Democratic and Republican candidates.
Pause Switch to Standard View 2024 USA Presidential Election
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Report politicspunter September 3, 2021 7:40 PM BST
Giuseppe is a scammer. He followed me around begging me to lend him money. When I agreed (it was a five figure sum), he refused to give me his personal information, that I had requested, in order that I could forward the money. He is a fraudster, who now follows me around the forum, every thread and every post, being abusive. Block the scammer, do not respond to him and above all do not open any of his links. You have been warned!
Report Giuseppe September 3, 2021 7:48 PM BST
don't listen to him

it's all lies!
Report impossible123 September 3, 2021 8:18 PM BST
I think President Biden is a lame duck. How'd he win another term after Afghanistan political faux pas?
Report politicspunter September 3, 2021 8:21 PM BST

Sep 3, 2021 -- 2:18PM, impossible123 wrote:


I think President Biden is a lame duck. How'd he win another term after Afghanistan political faux pas?


If the election were held tomorrow, there is no doubt about it, he would struggle. However, over three years to the next election is a helluva long time in the political world. Anything can and probably will happen.

Report Giuseppe September 3, 2021 8:23 PM BST
Biden will be shattered in three years

he's struggling as it is
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 3, 2021 8:24 PM BST
That's why folk do potentially
damaging stuff at start of term.

Plenty goodies in pipeline to
buy back votes.
Report politicspunter September 4, 2021 12:19 PM BST
Rumour control says that Trump is going to announce he is running "any day now".
Report politicspunter September 4, 2021 12:23 PM BST
If he does, even those current exchange prices of around 5.9 to win outright, are going to look massive.
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 4, 2021 12:24 PM BST
Massive donations... Kerching
Report politicspunter September 4, 2021 12:26 PM BST
Current outright prices on here...

Biden 5.1
Trump 5.8
Harris 7.0

If Trump does announce he is a candidate, at least you know you have a runner, which is more than can be said for Biden/Harris.
Report politicspunter September 4, 2021 12:32 PM BST
You also have to look at that Republican nominee market and ask is 3.3 for Trump the correct price?
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 7, 2021 5:37 PM BST
Kam Harris tweeting about cal recall...


California, voting is underway! Let’s keep @GavinNewsom fighting for Californians in Sacramento and keep the state and nation moving forward.

Vote NO on the recall. Sign your envelope and return your mail-in ballot or vote in person by September 14.
Report Giuseppe September 7, 2021 6:46 PM BST
please vote yes
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 8, 2021 6:12 PM BST
.
Report tobermory September 8, 2021 6:20 PM BST
Harris really needs to be kept in the basement if the Democrats want to win any voted
Report timbuctooth September 9, 2021 7:44 AM BST
https://www.dailywire.com/news/kamala-harris-backed-bail-fund-freed-alleged-domestic-abuser-now-accused-of-murder
.
Report Magic__Daps September 9, 2021 11:59 AM BST
Who could have predicted it... A woman who has so much hate for the country she lives in, she is in the same mould as Pelosi and Maxine Waters in wanting to cause a huge division in the Country, along with burning, looting and causing as much violence as possible in the communities and Cities they say they stand up for. Shame the people in the same communities fall for it all.
Report politicspunter September 9, 2021 12:26 PM BST
Trump is now 5.8 to win outright in 2024. Anyone that takes that price will have to be fairly sure that...

a/ He is going to run
b/ His health holds out
c/ He is not in jail through the investigations into his business
d/ He can beat the Democrat candidate
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 9, 2021 12:29 PM BST
e/ Bookies pay out in the event of a coup.
Report politicspunter September 9, 2021 12:38 PM BST
Timbeeeeer !
Report Magic__Daps September 9, 2021 1:04 PM BST
politicspunter
Date Joined: 20 Mar 18
Add contact | Send message
03 Jun 21 12:44
Yep, I will be laying Trumps return at the highest price.


I wonder how many lies will be told, and aftertimes that will miraculously have Politicspunter in front....Could be some comedy gold on its way. Some hefty reds laying at 18s and 9s.
Report blank September 9, 2021 4:09 PM BST
Garcetti, Booker and Yang all trade around 100 or less on the democrat nominee market, but you can get 1000 or close on the election winner market. Could be a big priced runner like these if not Biden/Harris.
Report politicspunter September 9, 2021 5:54 PM BST
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
53m
If the candidates for the November 2024 Presidential Election are as follows, for whom will Americans vote?

Joe Biden: 45%
Donald Trump: 42%
Don't know: 10%

Not much in it.
Report politicspunter September 9, 2021 5:56 PM BST
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
5m
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden: (4-5 Sept)

Biden Scores Best In:
Cares about people like me 48% (-6)
Understands problems facing the US 48% (-4)

Trump Scores Best In:
Knows how to get things done 47% (+6)
Is tough on China 46% (–)

Changes +/- 31 Oct-1 Nov
Report Giuseppe September 9, 2021 6:23 PM BST
"Trump is now 5.8 to win outright in 2024. Anyone that takes that price will have to be fairly sure that...

c/ He is not in jail through the investigations into his business"

lol
Report politicspunter September 9, 2021 7:04 PM BST
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
52m
Which potential 2024 Democratic Presidential candidates could 2020 Joe Biden voters see themselves voting for if they were to be the Democratic nominee?

Joe Biden: 72%
Kamala Harris: 49%
Michelle Obama: 37%
Pete Buttigieg: 24%
Stacey Abrams: 21%
Report politicspunter September 9, 2021 7:05 PM BST
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
@RedfieldWilton
·
1h
Which potential 2024 Republican Presidential candidates could 2020 Donald Trump voters see themselves voting for if they were to be the Republican nominee?

Donald Trump: 87%
Ted Cruz: 24%
Ron DeSantis: 23%
Mike Pence: 20%
Donald Trump Jr: 13%
Report politicspunter September 9, 2021 7:21 PM BST
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Poll:

Democrats 43% (+6)
Republicans 37%

@YouGovAmerica
~ 1,158 RV ~ 9/4-9/7
Report Fatslogger September 9, 2021 9:00 PM BST

Sep 9, 2021 -- 6:26AM, politicspunter wrote:


Trump is now 5.8 to win outright in 2024. Anyone that takes that price will have to be fairly sure that...a/ He is going to runb/ His health holds outc/ He is not in jail through the investigations into his businessd/ He can beat the Democrat candidate


I calculated all this a while back and thought Trump was a pretty good lay at 10s or so and have just got deeper since. Obviously he’ll trade much shorter if he ends up the nominee but I didn’t think that at all likely. This is a text I sent to my brother in June:-

I could try to get more money opposing him for next time at about 9.6. His chances of winning the 2024 presidential election feel an awful lot more remote than 1 in 10. Even if he’s allowed to stand rather than in jail, I don’t think he’s got a 1 in 10 shot. I know he’s still got the Republican Party hostage a bit but he’s not got anything like the reach or influence he had so I think there would be a chance of blocking him off, even if he did choose to stand, which in itself seems doubtful.

Rough probabilities:

1. Trump eligible (not jailed or otherwise completely out of picture) 50%
2. Trump chooses to stand 40%
3. Trump wins nomination having stood 75%
4. Trump wins general election 40%

That’s 6% and all of those feel at least somewhat generous to him, although none of them are easy to calculate.

——————————————————————————————-

I may be wrong about any of them (Trump standing at 0.4 seems a bit low now but obviously v hard one to call) but they do need to be multiplied together still.

Report edy September 9, 2021 9:02 PM BST
Heya Slogger! Good to see you.
Report Fatslogger September 9, 2021 9:08 PM BST
Hi edy. You too. I wondered whether much would have changed here. Turns out not a great deal. Aiming to contribute a bit to the 5th test match thread and not all that much to politics! I’ll probably go astray though.
Report Fatslogger September 9, 2021 9:20 PM BST
Hmm, perhaps a bit more deranged even than before, on reflection, although a lot less Covid.
Report Giuseppe September 9, 2021 10:18 PM BST
welcome back slogger a few people were asking about you
Report Giuseppe September 9, 2021 10:19 PM BST
"1. Trump eligible (not jailed or otherwise completely out of picture) 50%"

Crazy
Report politicspunter September 9, 2021 11:56 PM BST
Good to see you back fats. Could be some crazy markets for this one Grin
Report tobermory September 10, 2021 1:03 AM BST
Rough probabilities:

1. Trump eligible (not jailed or otherwise completely out of picture) 50%
2. Trump chooses to stand 40%
3. Trump wins nomination having stood 75%
4. Trump wins general election 40%

That’s 6% and all of those feel at least somewhat generous to him, although none of them are easy to calculate.



These calculations seem way out to me.
Report Giuseppe September 10, 2021 1:10 AM BST
if his health holds up I think he'll run and I think he'll win the nomination
Report Giuseppe September 10, 2021 1:10 AM BST
chance of Trump being in prison in 2024? about 5% I'd say
Report Giuseppe September 10, 2021 1:15 AM BST
could be Biden (82) v Trump (78 1/2)
Report A_T September 10, 2021 8:07 AM BST
Donald Trump has boasted that he would knock out Joe Biden in a boxing match, adding he’d do it “very very quickly”. Speaking during a pre-fight event for the boxing match between former world champion Evander Holyfield and Vitor Belfort, Trump said: “I think Biden would go down within the first few seconds.

https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/954084/trump-would-knock-out-biden-in-a-few-seconds

Laugh
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 10, 2021 9:30 AM BST
"Trial by combat"

How did that go last time?
Report Fatslogger September 10, 2021 1:18 PM BST

Sep 9, 2021 -- 7:03PM, tobermory wrote:


Rough probabilities:1. Trump eligible (not jailed or otherwise completely out of picture) 50%2. Trump chooses to stand 40%3. Trump wins nomination having stood 75%4. Trump wins general election 40%That’s 6% and all of those feel at least somewhat generous to him, although none of them are easy to calculate.These calculations seem way out to me.


Fair enough. It was 3 months back so I’d probably revise them somewhat now, as it’s another 3 months in which he’s not died, become obviously too infirm to stand (these are non negligible risks at his age) or gone on trial for anything and he seems keener and more involved with current politics than I thought he was back then too. I think the out of the picture 50% includes a few other things too, albeit accepting that huge scandals breaking haven’t exactly got rid of him from public life before. 

I’d be willing to listen to cases that he’d be better than 75% to win the nomination too. Looking at my numbers now, that’s probably the one I’d say was out but strange things can happen. Perhaps I’m just trusting the market to have some wisdom in moving him from just under 10s to just under 6s.

Suggest your alternatives?

Report Fatslogger September 10, 2021 1:24 PM BST
Oh and obviously I can’t read Trump’s mind but I suspect he’s somewhat conflicted about having another go. He’d obviously want the glorious victory of beating Biden (especially) or any other Dem candidate and writing the 2020 wrong and he liked the power and prestige of being president. But he also must be at least a bit fearful of another ignominious defeat and didn’t exactly seem to be enjoying the job a lot of the time when he was doing it. Does he really fancy another 4 years?
Report tobermory September 10, 2021 7:37 PM BST
Trump to able to run ( not dead, in jail etc) 88%
Trump decides to run - 70%
Trump wins nomination - 90%
Trump wins election - 50%

So about 3.35 I think

I think people who despise Trump should consider whether their dislike is colouring their view of the probabilities of his going to prison. The last 5 years on here - at any point in time - there have always been a bunch of people telling us that Trump is only 6 months away from being successfully impeached or imprisoned. When their hopes collapse on one count they just move on to the next thing, optimism undimmed.... "Yeah, but wait for Mueller...." Trump has been doing what he does with his businesses for 50 years, that he is going to be nailed for something now seems wishful thinking.

The main reason given Trump wouldn't actually want to run, is that 'he couldn't cope with losing again'. But Trump does not accept he lost last time, and neither do most of his supporters. He was going to call 2016 a fraud if he lost to Hilary (and he expected to lose). Of course he would just have the same approach for 2024.

If Trump wants the Republican nomination I can't see what is going to stop him really. Last time he defeated formidable establishment and right wing Republicans, and I would expect the field to be weaker next time.

For the election I'd have to make it 50-50 at this point. I see people saying '"he lost to Biden so we know he can't beat him". This seems to assume what happens in Biden's first term is almost irrelevant. Biden's record is going to be on the line, and the signs so far are not good. And, incredibly, Biden is still likely to be the best candidate the Democrats will have.
Report A_T September 10, 2021 7:43 PM BST
i don't believe trump will declare he's running any time soon. his biggest fear in life is being seen as a loser and if he commits too soon and then pulls out he will look like just that. i also don't believe he'll go to prison - or even be convicted - however plenty close to him will though and already have
Report tobermory September 10, 2021 7:45 PM BST
Yes, AT, it doesn't make sense for Trump (or any candidate) to formally declare before 2023. There is no advantage in it, but potentially there are costs and problems.
Report A_T September 10, 2021 7:46 PM BST
Biden's chances of re-election are entirely dependent on how the economy is doing in 2024 - incumbent presidents are hard to shift
Report A_T September 10, 2021 7:50 PM BST
one thing I think is certain IMO is that Trump cannot beat the Democrats in the popular vote - which is why we're seeing GOP attempts to change voting rules and continued noise in the swings states about voter fraud (e.g. the Arizona audit)
Report tobermory September 10, 2021 7:53 PM BST
Yes, the audit is about 2024, not 2020.
Report tobermory September 10, 2021 8:08 PM BST
One other point of Fatslogger I would question is whether Trump enjoyed being president and how politically interested he is in what's gone on since he left.

I think Trump hugely enjoyed being President, and is very bitter that he is no longer. He is not the dedicated public servant type, but was able to do the job on his own terms, so no reason he wasn't having fun.

The impression that Trump is not saying much comes purely from the Twitter ban and the strategy that the Democrats/MSN/Big Tech have worked out to counter him. Which is basically not to give him any publicity whatever.

There is an interesting article in Time Magazine - 'the shadow campaign' - detailing how left wing activists worked out that debating right wing talking points was not helping their cause, and that it would be easier if they could just be suppressed or removed from public view as far as possible (which their friends in Big Tech were happy to help with). All the contributors to the Time article are very smug and happy to boast about 'steering the media' etc . It is felt this was a huge success and is the template moving forward, so Trump's pronouncements only appear on Fox and Sky News Australia (channels unavailable on UK TV).
Report A_T September 10, 2021 8:19 PM BST
This is one reason that has been put forward why Trump might declare sooner rather than later - if he's offocially running for 2024 the media will have to give him coverage. At the moment he is just a has-been and there is no reason why the media should pay any attention to him.
Report Fatslogger September 10, 2021 8:27 PM BST

Sep 10, 2021 -- 1:37PM, tobermory wrote:


Trump to able to run ( not dead, in jail etc) 88%Trump decides to run - 70%Trump wins nomination - 90%Trump wins election - 50%So about 3.35 I thinkI think people who despise Trump should consider whether their dislike is colouring their view of the probabilities of his going to prison. The last 5 years on here - at any point in time - there have always been a bunch of people telling us that Trump is only 6 months away from being successfully impeached or imprisoned. When their hopes collapse on one count they just move on to the next thing, optimism undimmed.... "Yeah, but wait for Mueller...." Trump has been doing what he does with his businesses for 50 years, that he is going to be nailed for something now seems wishful thinking.The main reason given Trump wouldn't actually want to run, is that 'he couldn't cope with losing again'. But Trump does not accept he lost last time, and neither do most of his supporters. He was going to call 2016 a fraud if he lost to Hilary (and he expected to lose). Of course he would just have the same approach for 2024.If Trump wants the Republican nomination I can't see what is going to stop him really. Last time he defeated formidable establishment and right wing Republicans, and I would expect the field to be weaker next time.For the election I'd have to make it 50-50 at this point. I see people saying '"he lost to Biden so we know he can't beat him". This seems to assume what happens in Biden's first term is almost irrelevant. Biden's record is going to be on the line, and the signs so far are not good. And, incredibly, Biden is still likely to be the best candidate the Democrats will have.


You’re perhaps right about the jail issue and certainly about dislike for Trump colouring analysis but I don’t really buy that him having got away with it before means there’s no material risk. I certainly think your 88% is far too high but at least as much for health reasons. His death chance in the next slightly over 3 years is probably around 12% on its own and yearly disabling illness chances are also significant at 75.

I would agree that he doesn’t think he lost. Whether he meets diagnostic criteria or not, he’s got significant narcissistic traits and he won’t ever think he lost anything fairly. That doesn’t mean he wouldn’t fear another defeat though.

I’ve also got Trump as heavy favourite to win the nomination if he wants it but accidents can happen. On balance though, he’d be difficult to oppose effectively. You may be closer than me here.

Incumbents don’t lose all that often. Assuming Biden himself wants to stand and isn’t dead or too infirm to do so (as per the Trump numbers, these can’t be relied upon), I think he’d be a favourite but it’s arguable that history is of limited value in assessing the current incredibly partisan state of US politics. If you looked at precedent, there would be a very low chance of Trump standing again too.

Report tobermory September 10, 2021 8:40 PM BST
OK, due to age I'd have to lower that 88% quite a bit, but still I'd have his availability a lot higher than 50/50. So perhaps 70%. I doubt Trump has done anything that he can't blame on someone else. The guy that gave the stripper cash went to jail even though it seems obvious who told him to do that.

I don't think Biden is a typical incumbent. Most presidents are seen as having an 8 year job unless something terrible happens in the first term, but Biden has never even been clear himself that he is going to run for 2 terms, and I think there is already a big doubt unrelated to how well his first term goes.
Report tobermory September 10, 2021 8:42 PM BST
Bush Snr, Jimmy Carter were a big let down to their own voters, so no chance they'd get another shot.

Trump's supporters all voted for him again, he increased his vote. So very different.
Report Giuseppe September 10, 2021 8:42 PM BST
can we really see Biden campaigning at 82 years of age?
Report tobermory September 10, 2021 8:44 PM BST
AT, that's interesting that Trump announcing would require mainstream news to report his statements. I'm not sure though that they'd feel obliged to give it that much prominence 3 years off from the primaries.

He is still very much churning out stuff though, eg here on Afghanistan withdrawal...


"I would have taken the equipment out, then I would have taken the people out, then I would have bombed every base.... except Bagram, we had to keep that because that's near China and Iran, so we were gonna keep that for other purposes, I mean they spent $10 Billion building Bagram, then overnight they give them the keys. I have never seen stupidity like this. And they're trying the narrative 'Biden got out' like he's brave... he got out like a man that was just fleeing for his life..... This is the United States of America, all over the world they're laughing at us...
  Withdrawal is fine, but you withdraw with dignity and with victory. We had victory, they (The Taliban) weren't doing anything at all, you didn't hear of anything at all, there wasn't one attack, think of it, eighteen months and not one soldier was killed. Because of me"
Report politicspunter September 10, 2021 8:47 PM BST

Sep 10, 2021 -- 2:42PM, tobermory wrote:


Bush Snr, Jimmy Carter were a big let down to their own voters, so no chance they'd get another shot.Trump's supporters all voted for him again, he increased his vote. So very different.


The massive increase in the vote for both the Democrat and Republican candidates was almost solely related to the Covid pandemic with over 100 million votes cast before election day.

Report brentford September 10, 2021 8:50 PM BST
even his comments in bland text are quite amusing to give him his due....how many people end a statement with "because of me " ?  Laugh
Report A_T September 10, 2021 8:54 PM BST
I doubt Trump has done anything that he can't blame on someone else.

this is so true. just today we had yet another example of someone coming acropper by doing something to help Trump

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/10/politics/igor-fruman-plea/index.html
Report Fatslogger September 10, 2021 11:04 PM BST

Sep 10, 2021 -- 2:40PM, tobermory wrote:


OK, due to age I'd have to lower that 88% quite a bit, but still I'd have his availability a lot higher than 50/50. So perhaps 70%. I doubt Trump has done anything that he can't blame on someone else. The guy that gave the stripper cash went to jail even though it seems obvious who told him to do that.I don't think Biden is a typical incumbent. Most presidents are seen as having an 8 year job unless something terrible happens in the first term, but Biden has never even been clear himself that he is going to run for 2 terms, and I think there is already a big doubt unrelated to how well his first term goes.


I agree with most of this. I didn’t think Biden would run a second time initially and am still sceptical.

Report politicspunter September 11, 2021 9:06 AM BST
Latest outright prices on here...

Biden 5.1
Trump 5.9
Harris 6.8
De Santis 13.0

I wouldn't be confident on anything other than either Biden or Harris will be the Democrat candidate and even then, it's still a long way away.
Report tobermory September 11, 2021 9:18 AM BST
If  Biden announces - late 2023 - that he is completing his first term, but not running again, then it will be neither of them.
Report politicspunter September 11, 2021 9:28 AM BST
Why wouldn't it then be Harris that is the Democrat candidate?
Report Giuseppe September 11, 2021 2:58 PM BST
because nobody likes her
Report blank September 11, 2021 4:25 PM BST
Biden 5.1
Any R other than Trump/DeSantis 5.3
Any D other than Biden/Harris 5.5
Trump 5.9
Harris 6.8
DeSantis 13.0
Report blank September 11, 2021 4:33 PM BST
I don't know about Trump's odds specifically but I think the Republican runners on the whole have been over backed. Trump, DeSantis and Pence are all currently at the lowest odds they've ever been, at the same time!. I added it up the other day, laying every republican runner at the odds the backers were asking for would give you an overall republican lay of 2.3, almost at the stage where you can lay them all.
Report politicspunter September 11, 2021 4:37 PM BST
The thing no one can guesstimate though is for contenders previously unconsidered to emerge. Trump and Obama weren't short prices pre election, Pete Buttigieg from the last campaign springs to mind also.
Report Giuseppe September 11, 2021 4:39 PM BST
i'm thinking of running for the GOP nomination to be honest
Report A_T September 11, 2021 5:24 PM BST
as an ex-President Trump's busy remembering 9/11 by....

commentating on a freakshow veteran boxing match in florida
Report politicspunter September 11, 2021 5:29 PM BST
Maybe he is afraid that if he appears in New York, he will be served with court papers?
Report Fatslogger September 12, 2021 9:22 AM BST

Sep 11, 2021 -- 10:37AM, politicspunter wrote:


The thing no one can guesstimate though is for contenders previously unconsidered to emerge. Trump and Obama weren't short prices pre election, Pete Buttigieg from the last campaign springs to mind also.


Agree. There are reasons why the nominees might be the obvious ones this time, with Biden standing for re-election perhaps the default (I think Dems will try to persuade him to stand if he’s polling okay, as Harris doesn’t poll so well) but also quite strong reasons, including obviously age, why they might not be. I know Biden and Trump are both looking in reasonable shape right now but it’s over 3 years to Election Day and even if both were convinced they wanted to run, there’s a solid chance that a health problem could intervene. I guess prices do reflect that, for Biden especially, given how solid a bet an incumbent usually is.

Report politicspunter September 12, 2021 12:04 PM BST
Trump now supported in to 2.8 on here for Republican nominee and 5.7 to win outright.
Report lfc1971 September 13, 2021 7:35 AM BST
Either Biden or Harris to win , if republicans want to win the presidency again they are going to have to succeed from the union
And form their own more stable successful country
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 13, 2021 8:43 AM BST
Suck seed?

Secede?
Report lfc1971 September 13, 2021 8:51 AM BST
didn’t look right Happy
Report lfc1971 September 13, 2021 8:58 AM BST
The American election is increasingly along racial and religious lines
It’s demographics more than anything else , not good .
Report ----you-have-to-laugh--- September 13, 2021 9:02 AM BST
Maybe they will suck seed, and
bring back slavery.
Report lfc1971 September 13, 2021 9:06 AM BST
Lol
spellings gone to pot
Report politicspunter September 13, 2021 4:04 PM BST
PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
·
13h
2022 #FLGov General Election Poll:

Charlie Crist (D) 54% (+8)
Ron DeSantis (R-Inc) 46%
.
Ron DeSantis (R-Inc) 52% (+4)
Nikki Fried (D) 48%

The Listener Group/
@PoliticalMatrix
~ 1,144 LV ~ 9/3-9/5
Report politicspunter September 14, 2021 12:01 PM BST
Hmm, De Santis being supported this morning for 2024 Republican nominee.
Report Fatslogger September 14, 2021 9:50 PM BST
Big presence on Fox and pretty charismatic. He feels slightly short at 14s to me, with the nomination process always so difficult to call but there are worse mid range punts you could take on.
Report politicspunter September 14, 2021 10:12 PM BST
The problem I have with him is that he may find it tough to win states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as a good old southern boy.
Report politicspunter September 14, 2021 10:13 PM BST
Throw in Ohio, Iowa etc, places he really must win, it could be tough.
Report Giuseppe September 14, 2021 10:35 PM BST
"a good old southern boy"

lol he's an Italian from Tampa Bay in Florida
Report politicspunter September 14, 2021 10:42 PM BST
He could do ok in places such as Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, perhaps even New Mexico but he still has to make inroads in the Mid West.
Report Fatslogger September 14, 2021 10:51 PM BST
At this stage though, betting on the President market is really betting on the nominees. Sure, you’d want some solid get out clauses if you’d laid someone who ended up nominated but that would be a tough time in the run up, even so.
Report Giuseppe September 14, 2021 10:56 PM BST
Müller is the most common surname in Germany

it should be as common in America as Smith
Report Giuseppe September 14, 2021 10:56 PM BST
rong fred sry
Report politicspunter September 14, 2021 10:59 PM BST
I am not confident that Trump or DeSantis will run.
Report Giuseppe September 14, 2021 11:03 PM BST
"He could do ok in places such as Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, perhaps even New Mexico"

none of those states are anything like south florida

south florida is most similar to california
Report Giuseppe September 14, 2021 11:04 PM BST
north florida (tallahassee, jackosnville) is like georgia or south carolina, it is part of teh south

south florida (tampa, orlando, miami) is completely different
Report politicspunter September 15, 2021 9:55 PM BST
2024 National Republican Primary Poll, Without Trump:

DeSantis 22%
Trump Jr. 19%
Pence 15%
Cruz 7%
Owens 5%
Haley 4%
Romney 4%
Rubio 2%
T. Scott 2%
Kasich 2%
Cheney 2%
Pompeo 2%
Cotton 1%
R. Scott 1%
Noem 1%

McLaughlin & Associates ~ 456 LV ~ 9/9-9/14
Report politicspunter September 15, 2021 9:55 PM BST
Trump Junior  Laugh
Report politicspunter September 15, 2021 9:56 PM BST
2024 National Republican Primary Poll:

Trump 59%
Pence 10%
DeSantis 8%
Cruz 3%
Romney 3%
Haley 2%
Rubio 2%
Kasich 2%
Cheney 2%
Owens 1%
T. Scott 1%
Pompeo 1%
Cotton 1%
R. Scott 1%
Noem 0%

McLaughlin & Associates ~ 456 LV ~ 9/9-9/14
Report politicspunter September 15, 2021 9:57 PM BST
2024 National General Election Poll:

Donald Trump 50% (+3)
Joe Biden 47%
.
Donald Trump 49% (+2)
Kamala Harris 47%

McLaughlin & Associates ~ 1000 LV ~ 9/9-9/14
Report politicspunter September 15, 2021 9:59 PM BST
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Poll:

Democrats 43% (+6)
Republicans 37%

@YouGovAmerica
~ 1,153 RV ~ 9/10-9/13
Report Giuseppe September 15, 2021 10:27 PM BST
America starting to realise the mistake they made last November
Report politicspunter September 15, 2021 10:35 PM BST
Donald Trump Junior 200.0 with Smarkets and he comes 2nd tonight just behind DeSantis. Get on quick !
Report politicspunter September 17, 2021 9:58 AM BST
FLORIDA
2024 Presidential General Election Poll:

Joe Biden 55% (+10)
Ron DeSantis 45%

The Listener Group/
@PoliticalMatrix
~ 911 LV ~ 9/11-9/12
Report politicspunter September 17, 2021 10:25 AM BST
One excellent advantage poll followers will have if it turns out to be Biden v Trump part 2, is that they will have all the 2020 data at hand.
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