Politics
I mean seriously,wtf.
Because they are having to go back to work that’s why and they don’t fancy the idea
Are you still trying to defend your garbage based on one person you know who works for an unnamed company. You haven't even said if she lied to get a test she wasn't entitled to. Yet you have decided that problem with lack of testing isn't caused by number of infections rising ten fold in a few weeks. No can't be that.
Maybe this rise in infections is why Leciester have decided to close parks an hour early, I doubt the reason for this decision wasn't to annoy voters out walking their dogs on their own. You have made a big point of parks closing a bit earlier than normal but haven't bothered to research the reasons behind this decision. Were groups of 16-18 year olds meeting up after school?
WTF are you on about "snitching " . Ever since we has had police, people have been asked/ expected to report crimes. Well before Covid the UK had two telephone numbers for emergency & non emergency cases. It isn't new.
Sep 17, 2020 -- 8:24AM, Mexico wrote:
SontAre you still trying to defend your garbage based on one person you know who works for an unnamed company. You haven't even said if she lied to get a test she wasn't entitled to. Yet you have decided that problem with lack of testing isn't caused by number of infections rising ten fold in a few weeks. No can't be that.Maybe this rise in infections is why Leciester have decided to close parks an hour early, I doubt the reason for this decision wasn't to annoy voters out walking their dogs on their own. You have made a big point of parks closing a bit earlier than normal but haven't bothered to research the reasons behind this decision. Were groups of 16-18 year olds meeting up after school?WTF are you on about "snitching " . Ever since we has had police, people have been asked/ expected to report crimes. Well before Covid the UK had two telephone numbers for emergency & non emergency cases. It isn't new.
Boris clearly disagrees with you Mexico.
But Boris Johnson has now urged people to speak with rulebreakers before notifying the authorities - contradicting Home Secretary Priti Patel, who said it was 'personal responsibility' to make sure people obeyed rules.
The PM said: “I have never much been in favour of sneak culture, myself. “What people should do in the first instance is obviously if they are concerned is raise it with their friends and neighbours.
“But I think what is reasonable for anyone to do is if they think there is a serious threat to public health as a result of their neighbours’ activities – if there is some huge kind of Animal House party taking place, as I am sure, hot tubs and so forth, and there is a serious threat to public health then its reasonable for the authorities to know.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8742205/Do-not-snitch-unless-neighbours-having-Animal-House-parties-Johnson-says.html
Nothing to do with whether people report or not
( best not to say anything to neighbours or anyone else, too dangerous . Report them
Utterly farcical.
Was often off from primary school due to illness. Remember being in class and my mother appeared and was talking to the teacher
She was worried I was falling behind , Teacher said don’t worry about little lfc he’s one of the best in the class
dear god,how low can you sink?
Sep 17, 2020 -- 8:40AM, PorcupineorPineapple wrote:
My daughter has just started year 7 and has been walking down to school with a friend. He got ill last weekend and has been off since. By all accounts, he's not too bad but has been told he can't return until he gets a test. Unfortunately, that's not as easy as you'd hope a civilised country to be and he's now looking at going into a second week off from school for what may be no more than a bad cold.Utterly farcical.
Expect to see more of this. The majority of people get 1-3 colds a year.
It’s good for them
Don't know how you can have people going to offices right now. Just more trouble than it's worth. Till you get a testing system in place that can remotely meet demand then society is going to slow to a crawl.
So have the PM don't ever report crimes? In many minor offences pre Covid people would have been happy enough to have a word first. Of course if you see a group of 7 carrying knives it may be a bad idea to confront than & say can only be a group of 6 .
Nothing has changed- the police still requires people to report instances.
The police really can't be bothered with groups of 7 it is to give them legal powers to break up groups of 15 etc.
Much the same as people driving at 34 mph are breaking the law but not exactly number 1 priority for police.
The government has lost its way, the science has lost its way, although the science has never been sound.
And the extent of the infection is unknown because the tests produce far too many false positives.
The only sound indication of the extent, are the numbers of people actually falling ill from it.
As for sending kids for tests every time one coughs - how many kids have become seriously ill from the virus going on symptoms alone?
kids and keeping them away from folk until they are no longer infectious.
same as testing , track and trace identifies infected folk and isolates
them until fit to return
science is sound
mate in teaching has been told kids with cough and cold can attend school, cough only
and you are sent home awaiting test. he is not aware of where this edict originates.
False positives left right and centre.
still, its currently best we have, and hopefully will be improved as time progresses.
some folk are learning, some idiots quoting false and misleading info.
and government has surely learnt that a tighter regulation earlier in spike will stop spike reaching same heights...hope so anyway
i am awaiting details of my latest lockdown, living in n e england
we are about to pay price of covidiots.
clearly one person can easily infect dozens of others and not the 3 they were
suggesting back then
Spectator had an article about false positives- they didn't express the same concern about tge accuracy as those on here who believe they should be allowed to do whatever they want in a pandemic did.
Is very surprising how so many of these "scientific facts" from the forum Icke fans don't come with a link to any story which actually accurately supports theiir view.
There will be false negative tests while the test is pretty unpleasant . Basically another reason to back up the claim that the number of new infections each day in UK is more than 4000.
The 3 on the R rate isn't the maximum a person can infect but how many on average they do. That is why lockdown brought down R rate from over 3 to below 1
If we all go out to nightclubs, packed pubs, crowded theatres , rammed into tube carriages then average number of infections will be higher. If everybody was locked away in solitary confinement then R will be lower .
It is a balancing act ever since economy started to reopen & to some extent even UK softish lockdown was a balancing act.
i know they have an actual r rate and a possible r rate where measles is top rated at
around 12-18.
a quick look sees they now have covid at 3.8 to 8.9 so i should have looked before posting
but i suspect its a very infectious beggar.
at the time it was suggested deaths would be back fitted when it was over to give actual infection rate at the time.
of course death figures are now routinely massaged too.
Guess being so mild in so many people is a blessing and a curse.
Great that people don't get ill but means they don't know they pass on a death sentence. Might also lead to deliberate poor behaviour- I.e. Why should I stay at home , there is a decent party tonight & I won't die even if infected.
looking at the number of front line staff that died it suggests that a larger infection is
very much more dangerous
(viral load)
we know more now, and have more treatments, so fingers crossed.
Sep 17, 2020 -- 10:46AM, Mexico wrote:
Laugh The 3 on the R rate isn't the maximum a person can infect but how many on average they do. That is why lockdown brought down R rate from over 3 to below 1If we all go out to nightclubs, packed pubs, crowded theatres , rammed into tube carriages then average number of infections will be higher. If everybody was locked away in solitary confinement then R will be lower .It is a balancing act ever since economy started to reopen & to some extent even UK softish lockdown was a balancing act.
Social distancing and less people being susceptible as more people had had it brought the 'r rate' down.
Same as Sweden.
The full lockdown was all about social distancing. Everyone is claiming it successfully bought the R rate down, same as Italy & China & Germany.
Recently there has been more social interactions & number of infections have increased.
Yep laugh, the "virus load" might be a factor. Are some unproven theories that masks may help even if don't completely prevent infection as people get a small initial exposure to the virus.
All a bit difficult to prove as considered unethical to expose 10,000 people to a fine mist of virus, some with masks & some without. Then observe how many get ill.
I think they are trolling and uneducated folk that follow them take up the baton.
No doubt there's money to be made from these conspiracy theories.
The deaths they will cause matter not to them.
Sep 17, 2020 -- 12:21PM, Whisperingdeath wrote:
Do anybody really believe that wearing a mask in a confined public space like public transport will not help curb the spread of the virus?
Do we really believe it will?
Best to keep 2 metres apart.
These two situations are NOT mutually exclusive.
Do you believe it is possible to wear a mask AND keep 2 meters apart.
As you & everybody else reading this , knew were referring to same situation.
So do you believe it is safer to me ...
50cm apart not wearing a jack compared to 50cm apart wearing a mask,
1 m apart not wearing a mask compared to 1m apart wearing a mask
2m apart not wearing a mask compared to 2m apart wearing a mask.
See what David Icke thinks before you answer?
Here's the true goal ladies and gents
And the underlined bit is baffling because people have been travelling in their droves the past 3 months, everyone desperate to still get their holiday in, so the media totally lying about that bit. Not a shock mind they lie about everything ffs.
Are these same non mask wearers happy to travel on a crowded bus or train without a mask in the Autumn?
Forget about protecting other do you not think it might protect yourselves?
There is also research to suggest glasses wearers have been affected to a lesser extent.
I have seen very few people even wear gloves on public transport. I'd have a shilling that they touch their faces before washing their hands!
I don't think this virus is as serious as they are making out but I will be protecting myself when coming close to the great unwashed.
Scroll down its Mark Lowen who wrote that
The whole narrative makes no sense and is so shoddily done its becoming quite pathetic and embarrassing for them, but heyho they still pump this c*ap out daily, and they still forge on with their agenda ffs
What about "climate change".....
Can't these utter cretins keep their stories straight for just 5 minutes?
Of course people are travelling. Many have to. Whilst I don't agree with the " I'm not wearing a mask brigade " I do think we need to get on with it. The financial impact of all this is being postponed. How many years will we be paying for this?
You claim that people have been traveling in their droves in past 3 months but not bothered to explain what you man by droves.
Do you mean simlar number of flights to summer 2019?
Maybe a 10% drop is still droves
Is a 50% drop still droves of people? A 75% drop?
What is your point...
The infection rate has increased and some of that is blamed on people going on summer holidays and basically ignoring social distancing.
Sep 17, 2020 -- 12:14PM, Mexico wrote:
ITThe full lockdown was all about social distancing. Everyone is claiming it successfully bought the R rate down, same as Italy & China & Germany.Recently there has been more social interactions & number of infections have increased.Yep laugh, the "virus load" might be a factor. Are some unproven theories that masks may help even if don't completely prevent infection as people get a small initial exposure to the virus.All a bit difficult to prove as considered unethical to expose 10,000 people to a fine mist of virus, some with masks & some without. Then observe how many get ill.
I don’t understand IT’s position on this. He says he’s in favour of social distancing but opposed to lockdown and won’t tell me whether he thinks lockdown contributed significantly to social distancing.
Yes, there isn’t an awful lot of high quality real world data on masks. There is very good quality mechanistic stuff, however, especially for masks preventing virus leaving mask wearers in droplets.
On Crips’ line on testing, err, it’s fake news. All tests have both a false negative and false positive rate. The false negative rate for PCR swabs is probably about 30%, so a negative test reduces your P of having the virus to about 0.3 of your pre test probability. This does depend a bit on how the swab is done and is therefore likely to be worse for home testing. So a negative home test might not be very helpful, although if it takes 5-7 days to turn up, go to the lab and a result come back, the person is by then much less likely to be highly infectious anyway. The false positive rate is close to zero. You can quibble a bit about non viable DNA being amplified in people who no longer have active virus and this probably is a thing to an extent in small numbers of people but in practice, a positive test indicates active infection an overwhelmingly large proportion of the time.
is this a fact we like or do we discount this one?
Sep 17, 2020 -- 5:34PM, nineteen points wrote:
muzzles mandate.cases rocketing.fact.is this a fact we like or do we discount this one?
Assuming this is true (a source would be useful) then of course we don't like it. Nor would we if the rate was increasing in any race, ethnic origin or anything else you want to call it. Not sure what you meant by "do we discount this one". I'm sure you will clarify what you meant.
What hope have we got when this s*it gets done for a laugh? this isn't a fooking laugh is it, they are taking everyone's livelihoods and freedoms away and these bunch of losers pull this stunt ffs
Sep 17, 2020 -- 2:02PM, Mexico wrote:
SontYou claim that people have been traveling in their droves in past 3 months but not bothered to explain what you man by droves.Do you mean simlar number of flights to summer 2019?Maybe a 10% drop is still drovesIs a 50% drop still droves of people? A 75% drop?What is your point...The infection rate has increased and some of that is blamed on people going on summer holidays and basically ignoring social distancing.
I thought it was those wancors not wearing face nappies?
No I say droves because that's how many have still been travelling
Do you have a point to any of your posts apart from not believing that the covid you caught is real? You seem to believe that quantity of posts is better than quality.
Good god, "its not on break" < in regards to covid, yet it went missing during the summer months eh
Sweet baby jesus
I see the media are using sleight of hand tactics again
NO it wont be government legislation that dictates this but COMPANY POLICY, as a lot of us have been screaming from the fooking rooftop for months now
They still have to give you the illusion of having freedom of choice, but once company policy you wont have a bas*ard choice will you
must be delighted at this success.
somehow our government overlooked this fact and paid some old pals to set up an outsourced system.
somewhat beggaring belief.
Sep 18, 2020 -- 11:25AM, ----you-have-to-laugh--- wrote:
we have a health service , expert at detecting diseases and handling testing.somehow our government overlooked this fact and paid some old pals to set up an outsourced system.somewhat beggaring belief.
They also misled people as to who was doing the work, by calling it NHS Test and Trace, when the NHS hasn’t been doing it.
The only thing I can really say in their defence, is that the long term underfunding of the NHS and PHE especially would have made running this programme very difficult without some external support. This was also an issue in contracting out of services after the 2012 reforms, where the NHS would have done a better job in lots of cases but often didn’t have the strategic capacity to put slick proposals together. Nonetheless, as the stats for PHE tracing v private tracing somewhat show (yes, there are some quibbles as to how to interpret the rather different types of tracing required), this would probably have been done better in house. If government can’t rapidly provide support to an effective internal agency to do what it’s best at, that’s a massive failure of government.
Oh and it was a pleasure, edy. Funny how nobody other than you came back on it though.
No it's not fake news.
It's err, your statement which is fake news because it's out of date.
The false rates were applicable when the virus was new.
Now many people have had the virus and recovered. These people still have traces of the virus, which is being picked up and giving false positives.
Always happy to help an expert.
Of course, even a very basic analysis shows how stupid this argument is. If it’s dead virus, why did numbers of positive swabs fall so dramatically and are now going back up? More and more people will have had the virus over time, surely.
why did numbers of positive swabs fall so dramatically and are now going back up?
Because it's blindingly obvious that they're doing umpteen more tests now than they were.
You don't seen to do common sense.
How do you explain the high rates of positive tests when people aren't falling ill?
Sep 18, 2020 -- 4:03PM, Dr Crippen wrote:
No Fatslogger, it's you who is wrong as usual.why did numbers of positive swabs fall so dramatically and are now going back up?Because it's blindingly obvious that they're doing umpteen more tests now than they were. You don't seen to do common sense.How do you explain the high rates of positive tests when people aren't falling ill?
Dear God you’re bad at this. You know that the arrogant dismissals just look like you don’t know about Dunning and Kruger when you’re so obviously wrong?
Were we doing more tests in June and July than April and May, with vastly fewer positive results, both absolutely and, as a partial control for greater testing, proportionately? The answer is that we were. There is no possible way your theory is consistent with the facts.
People are falling ill. The numbers remain very low by comparison with the early pandemic because of a number of factors:
1. There are many more tests done, crucially in relatively well people, so average severity of disease is much lower. In the early pandemic we still tested all suspected Covid cases coming to hospital but not many outside hospital. So overall there are many fewer cases than there were.
2. Younger and less vulnerable people are catching it, on average, with very low mortality. The lower overall prevalence of the disease in the community has made it easier to protect vulnerable people than earlier, as have a number of other measures.
3. Treatment is better, although it’s easy to overstate this. Frankly elderly people will still have a high chance of getting very sick if they catch it.
Look at Spain and France if you want to know whether large spikes in cases eventually lead to people getting ill. Or you could wait for a few more weeks and look at figures here. It won’t be the many hundreds of deaths per day it was at the peak, I don’t think but it won’t remain very few either, unless the case numbers come back under control very soon and probably not even then. Death is a lagging indicator.
Okay lets look at France - no it hasn't happened there, or Italy or the UK.
However Spain's death rate has gone up. That's one out of four.
Germany same story as well, increase in positive cases - no marked increase in deaths.
Sep 18, 2020 -- 5:00PM, Dr Crippen wrote:
Look at Spain and France if you want to know whether large spikes in cases eventually lead to people getting ill.Okay lets look at France - no it hasn't happened there, or Italy or the UK.However Spain's death rate has gone up. That's one out of four.Germany same story as well, increase in positive cases - no marked increase in deaths.
You’re one for trying to pick at a small strand of a larger debate and not engage on most of it, aren’t you? It’s not a bad trick, if a bit transparent. It would help you if you didn’t try to imply that I’ve said things I didn’t though. Italy, Germany, Italy and the U.K. haven’t seen a comparable spike in cases to France and Spain, although may be following on. Hence I didn’t mention them. Also, you probably ought not to get basic and verifiable facts wrong: death rates in France have very clearly gone up, from generally single figures to the teens in August to now mostly 20-50 in September.
So I did and you were wrong again. There's been no significant increases in deaths in France. A small rise yes, but we can expect small spikes now and then.
Spain has seen a significant rise, but they're a tourist hotspot, they've got people coming and going all the time.
And if we look at the chart for positive cases in Spain, there's far more new cases now than there were even at the peak. It's been like that for a month.
Yet deaths are still only a fraction of what they were then.
It went on holiday throughout summer and has come back right on the nose of the 23rd September (This being the official start of Autumn)
All in the wording my friends, we are going into "bigger lockdowns", They've literally just said it in the bold above ^^^^^
Sep 18, 2020 -- 6:00PM, Dr Crippen wrote:
No, you said - Look at Spain and France if you want to know whether large spikes in cases eventually lead to people getting ill. So I did and you were wrong again. There's been no significant increases in deaths in France. A small rise yes, but we can expect small spikes now and then.Spain has seen a significant rise, but they're a tourist hotspot, they've got people coming and going all the time.And if we look at the chart for positive cases in Spain, there's far more new cases now than there were even at the peak. It's been like that for a month.Yet deaths are still only a fraction of what they were then.
I’d accept some quibbling about whether France really shows that increases in cases means people eventually getting ill from someone who wasn’t obviously in bad faith trying to claim that deaths hadn’t really gone up there when they’ve more than doubled. That’s well before we see the full effect of the spike in cases too, bearing in mind that deaths lag weeks behind cases. You can also see, accepting that judging from a few days is hard, that the trend continues upwards. In addition, France has seen a lot more ITU admissions. Is that ill enough for you?
Talking of bad faith, somehow Spain doesn’t really count because they wear sombreros or something equally absurd? There’s travel? From where, places with much lower rates of virus?
Oh and while we’re on the subject of bad faith, telling me I’m wrong again when I’m not and you are is bad enough but doing it after you’ve ineptly tried to pick apart a small strand of my argument, having run away from almost all of a detailed post explaining how and why you’re wrong is a real chef’s kiss, isn’t it?
You can't win them all.
Sep 18, 2020 -- 6:41PM, edy wrote:
Stop behaving like a common troll, Crippen.
It’s the one thing he’s good at, edy. He’s certainly not got any ability at debating beyond a basic level of gaslighting.
Sep 18, 2020 -- 6:58PM, Dr Crippen wrote:
Oh go away and put edy back on, he's much more fun than you.
I’m sorry that you don’t enjoy having your half arsed theories and ludicrous attempts at debate chopped into match wood, Crips. Perhaps try to be less scientifically illiterate and rhetorically inept in the future.
But that's what becomes of swimming out of your depth, you'll know better next time.
I mean, I’m ready for your attempts to say that ITUs don’t really admit sick people, that deaths more than doubling and rising doesn’t suggest an impending problem in a condition where we know deaths lag infections by weeks and that sombrero wearing means all stats are off. Bring them on. Or might you prefer not even to try engaging on a sub set of the arguments you haven’t already run away from? I’m sure you’ll tell us.
Sep 18, 2020 -- 7:15PM, Dr Crippen wrote:
You certainly get upset easily.
Not really. As I say, I enjoy showing you up, although you do make it too easy for it to be really good sport.
Did you forget to engage with the issues you brought up for your fifth post in a row Crips? It’s hard to work out why, isn’t it?
He'll be blowing his top soon to join Fatslogger.
You can end up with more false positives than false negatives
Sep 18, 2020 -- 8:44PM, Dr Crippen wrote:
Porcupine has come for a tilt now.He'll be blowing his top soon to join Fatslogger.
Do you think pretending that people are cross with you rather than deeply amused at your ongoing humiliation will allow you to report them and get them banned? Even by the risibly low standards of reasoning you’ve displayed so far today, that’s a stretch, isn’t it?
Sep 18, 2020 -- 8:59PM, lfc1971 wrote:
It is possible for the number of false positives to be much greater than the real number
Yes, it’s possible. Depends on the incidence in the population (being tested, not necessarily the general population) and the false positive rate of the test, as in how often it says something is present when it isn’t.
You can have many more false positives , than true positives
Sep 18, 2020 -- 9:08PM, lfc1971 wrote:
Yes but even if it is very close to zero , and as I say it may be less accurate than that You can have many more false positives , than true positives
This is possible, although unlikely for various reasons given on another thread but wouldn’t explain the recent increase in cases anyway, would it?
As we’ve both said it depends on how low the prevalence is. If you have a highly accurate needle in a haystack test that will pick up every real needle 100% of the time and correctly identify little bits of straw as not needles 99.95% of the time, which sounds really rather good, once you’ve got a haystack of 10000 bits of straw and 1 needle, it will (on average) find you 6 needles.
Even in Spain that is weeks ahead of us deaths are still relatively low compared to other causes.
We need to learn to live with Covid. It is not the only killer out there.
Is this false positives an actual issue in the real or is it just something Icke's fans witter on about?
There was a spectator link posted earlier from an article this week. They claimed that the positive results were 99.4% accurate (the negative outcomes are far less accurate)
They seemed to think 99.4% was pretty good.
Are you claiming that this figure is untrue or maybe that we should be really worried that only 99.4% accurate. You haven't explained your position IT , you just seem to be blaming others.
Maybe you could explain , perhaps even mention where your "facts" come from?
Sep 18, 2020 -- 9:41PM, lfc1971 wrote:
Now how accurate do you think it is likely to be , in the real world ?
It depends on what you mean by accurate. It’s detecting the Coronavirus very accurately. The test is amplifying viral DNA. If it picks it up, it can’t tell whether that’s dead DNA in a non infectious person, although I think the notion that this explains many positive results is false, or from live virus in someone who’s infectious. In hospital it really doesn’t affect what we do to distinguish, we’d manage the person the same, with careful isolation and the usual management of Covid, which isn’t mostly anything very clever unless they need respiratory support. For population screening the distinction doesn’t matter very much for the individual, who just has to isolate anyway because it would be a bonkers risk to assume dead virus. It probably also doesn’t matter that much for policy decisions, because it’s still people who’ve recently had the virus, even if you assume that a high proportion aren’t actively infectious.
